71Bear;842091142 said:

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You guys don't make any sense which isn't surprising given that you don't like the team.

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This

philbert_Cal said:

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This discussion reminds me of the people who were convinced Stanfurd would plummet back to mediocrity once:

1. Gerhart left
2. Harbaugh left
3. Luck left

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And this

It's funny how haters look to discredit Kap because he can run. Like Phil Simms (who isn't exactly a niner fan) has said - throw away his running ability and he's still a franchise QB. Kap could blow out both knees, gain 25 lbs and turn into Ben Roethlisberger but with a better arm. Running is a bonus with him and everyone recognizes it won't always be there. It won't prevent him from succeeding in the NFL.

Deal with it.

Quote:

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"He may be the most dynamic quarterback in the NFL," Simms said. "His arm is not good, it's special. If you watch the San Francisco 49ers ever since he became quarterback, you see these throws every single week. It's not only the power. It's the accuracy. That's what has really startled me. He can throw it hard on a line, but his touch passes down the field have been spectacular Forget the running, that arm alone is enough to make you a franchise quarterback."

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http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2013/01/14/simms-on-kaepernick-that-arm-alone-is-enough-to-make-you-a-franchise-qb/

Not to worry... We can remind everyone how foolish they sounded next fall....

Cal88;842091745 said:

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In the long run, the 9ers will need at least one good backup QB if they plan to stick with a pistol-style offense.

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If by "stick with a pistol-style offense" you mean "run the read option SIGNIFICANTLY MORE than the 8-10 times per game they ran it in the regular season and the 10-15 times per game they ran it in the postseason", I might be inclined to agree with you. But if they continue to sprinkle it in on 15-20% of plays (of which, Kaep keeps it on maybe 30%) as they did this year, I don't think they need a good backup any more than the other 31 teams.

Hypothetically, the hits that Kaep (or any mobile QB) takes on his 3-5 designed runs per game cancel out the 3-5 hits that he avoids (in the pocket) with his mobility. Just as a "pocket passer" probably wouldn't have suffered RGIII's concussion on the boundary, RGIII probably wouldn't have suffered Brady's (knee), Palmer's (knee), Brees' (shoulder), or Manning's (neck) injuries in the pocket.

This is an interesting (if cumbersome) read:

http://www.the-coli.com/coliseum/88042-slate-mobile-quarterbacks-more-injury-prone-than-pocket-passers.html#.UTPzNoWZ4oZ

Not discrediting him because he can run, it's more about 9er fans dismissing the fact that since he's a running QB he is going to be more exposed to getting hit.

Phantomfan's 1,000 word SB analysis as to why he wasn't getting hit by Baltimore completely ignores the fact that he had been contained and neutralized by the Raven D until the power had gone out. They didn't need to hit him.

Cal88;842091838 said:

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Not discrediting him because he can run, it's more about 9er fans dismissing the fact that since he's a running QB he is going to be more exposed to getting hit.

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Interesting to look at how often the young "running QBs" got hit compared to their similarly experienced "pocket QB" peers.

2012 QB Hits Allowed:

12. Redskins (Griffin) - 80
19. 49ers (Smith/Kaepernick) - 68
20. Panthers (Newton) - 67
28. Seahawks (Wilson) - 64
____________________

2. Colts (Luck) - 116
3. Jaguars (Gabbert/Henne) - 103
9. Browns (Weeden) - 83
10. Rams (Bradford) - 81
23. Miami (Tannehill) - 66

Not conclusive, but interesting....

rocketsBLUEglare;842091831 said:

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If by "stick with a pistol-style offense" you mean "run the read option SIGNIFICANTLY MORE than the 8-10 times per game they ran it in the regular season and the 10-15 times per game they ran it in the postseason", I might be inclined to agree with you. But if they continue to sprinkle it in on 15-20% of plays (of which, Kaep keeps it on maybe 30%) as they did this year, I don't think they need a good backup any more than the other 31 teams.

Hypothetically, the hits that Kaep (or any mobile QB) takes on his 3-5 designed runs per game cancel out the 3-5 hits that he avoids (in the pocket) with his mobility. Just as a "pocket passer" probably wouldn't have suffered RGIII's concussion on the boundary, RGIII probably wouldn't have suffered Brady's (knee), Palmer's (knee), Brees' (shoulder), or Manning's (neck) injuries in the pocket.

This is an interesting (if cumbersome) read:

http://www.the-coli.com/coliseum/88042-slate-mobile-quarterbacks-more-injury-prone-than-pocket-passers.html#.UTPzNoWZ4oZ

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There is a greater exposure to getting hit behind the LOS in a read-option offense, vs a more typical offense involving a running QB, that's why the historic study you've used might not be applicable to the read option, which has only recently crossed over from the college game.

If Kaep keeps it 30% of the time, he can still get hit if he hands it off as he's fair game. This is one of the main downsides of the offense at the NFL level. If a team wants to tee off him (at the risk of letting his running backs getting more yards), they can.

SF beat Atlanta by using Gore instead of Kaep on the read option. I don't recall Atlanta hitting Kaep. I remember them focusing on Kaep as Gore ran past them. In other words, this notion of "hitting" the QB every time on the read option is a non-starter. Atlanta didn't. Why would any other team do so?

Unit2Sucks;842091761 said:

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It's funny how haters look to discredit Kap because he can run. Like Phil Simms (who isn't exactly a niner fan) has said - throw away his running ability and he's still a franchise QB.

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I'm no hater. Kaep is the real deal, because he can still make big time throws from the pocket. All I'm saying is NFL defenses (I'm looking at you Capers) won't be as mystified by the pistol next season.

71Bear;842091971 said:

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SF beat Atlanta by using Gore instead of Kaep on the read option. I don't recall Atlanta hitting Kaep. I remember them focusing on Kaep as Gore ran past them. In other words, this notion of "hitting" the QB every time on the read option is a non-starter. Atlanta didn't. Why would any other team do so?

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The game against Atlanta was the NFC title game, and the 2nd half became a close game, so Atlanta had to focus on the ball carrier. They weren't in a situation where they could hit the QB to wear the 9ers down at the expense of letting them move the ball and score.

The situation will be different in the regular season, when the outcome of a single game is not as crucial, especially against NFC West and NFC rivals, who might go after Kaepernick during the regular season in order to significantly diminish the 9ers' postseason prospects. If you're Pete Carroll, you might gladly trade a loss vs the 9ers in december if that means they would be going into the playoffs with a hobbled starting QB or an inexperienced backup...

Every time Kaep runs the pistol, he becomes a target behind the LOS, whether he hands it out or not because the defense is not supposed to know if he has the ball in the moments after the handoff. It's a sword that cuts both ways, but the 9ers have yet to experience the downside because they have implemented the scheme very late in the season before their opponents could fully adapt.

If I were Harbaugh, I'd save the read option for the playoffs for this reason.

Cal88;842092056 said:

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If I were Harbaugh, I'd save the read option for the playoffs for this reason.

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Bah... This seems too rigid as a strategy. Better idea: save the read-option for the times when a defense does what Green Bay did. If the opponent tries to shut down your passing game by sending 8-men into coverage, Kap can and should run all over them. There seems no more risk of injury in this scenario.

Aaron Rodgers looked unbeatable two years ago, crushing every team, until they lost to the giants. Now they are good, but not dominating.

Newton, during hs rookie year was sensational, but last season was a mess.

Circumstances changes, as well as luck.

bearfan;842093213 said:

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Aaron Rodgers looked unbeatable two years ago, crushing every team, until they lost to the giants. Now they are good, but not dominating.

Newton, during hs rookie year was sensational, but last season was a mess.

Circumstances changes, as well as luck.

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Not sure I follow where you're going with this. Regardless, the Newton comment is questionable (wrong?). His stats and his team's W/L in 2012 were almost identical to those of his "sensational" rookie year. Actually, he showed modest improvements in most of the key QB metrics (passer rating, pass yds/attempt, ints, and WINS...plus, his rush yds and rush yds/attempt both went up a bit).

bearfan;842093213 said:

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Aaron Rodgers looked unbeatable two years ago, crushing every team, until they lost to the giants. Now they are good, but not dominating.

Newton, during hs rookie year was sensational, but last season was a mess.

Circumstances changes, as well as luck.

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Maybe you should email these pearls of wisdom to the Packer's chief negotiator. I'm sure they'll give Rodgers's agent some pause.