http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/55206/buy-or-sell-california-bears
Buy or sell California winning the North?

Ted Miller

Sell: We don't want to squelch California fans' optimism. This team has some intriguing talent on both sides of the ball. But there's a lot weighing against it challenging for the top spot in the North Division, starting with the North Division. It's brutal.

The Bears seem like a long shot to break the top four, with Stanford and Oregon at the top and Washington and Oregon State looking like top-25 teams. In fact, the basement dweller might still be thinking bowl game into the final weeks of the season. Washington State looks like the main rival this year for the Bears.

Just consider: You've got a team coming off a 3-9 season with a new coaching staff, significantly new systems on both sides of the ball, a new starting quarterback and a brutal schedule.

There are eight teams with legitimate top-25 potential on the slate, and three are among everyone's national title contenders: Ohio State, Oregon and Stanford. The South Division misses -- Arizona State and Utah -- are a decided mixed bag.

An enthusiasm bump for coach Sonny Dykes can only do so much. There's a reason coach Jeff Tedford was fired after 11 seasons: The program had plateaued and started a downward trend. Hard to correct that in a single year.

It's reasonable to put a long-term buy rating for the Bears under Dykes, particularly with sparkling new facilities bolstering recruiting. But for the short-term investor, we suggest a buyer beware.

Kevin Gemmell

Sell: I'm selling, too. However, it's not because California is installing new systems on both sides of the ball. We saw last year what kind of a jump start new coaches running new systems can bring to a program. Three of the four new coaches in 2012 with their newly-installed systems -- Rich Rodriguez, Todd Graham, Jim Mora -- had immediate success and went to bowl games. Heck, the Bruins won the South with complete offensive and defensive overhauls. So there is precedent.

Plus, we've seen that having a first-time starter at quarterback doesn't necessarily mean a one-year death sentence for a program anymore. From Brett Hundley and Marcus Mariota to Kevin Hogan and Taylor Kelly, we saw what first-time starters are capable of.

I don't see either of these as Cal's major obstacles.

The reason I'm selling the Bears is because I don't think they can win the division with the current level of competition within the North. Ted used the word brutal. That's generous. Barbarous might be a more apt description. And I just don't see a scenario this year where they beat three of those top four teams Ted mentioned.

I will say this, however. The Bears are going to spoil someone's season. I don't know if it will be Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State or Washington, but I wouldn't rule out Cal knocking off one of those teams along the way. Because the talent is there on both sides of the ball to catch one of those teams off guard. And I wouldn't count them out of a bowl berth, either. But I don't see the Bears knocking off enough of those top-end teams to earn a spot in the conference title game.

While I passionately root for the Bears, if I had to put money on whether the Bears actually WIN the North in 2013, I'd say 'no'.

I still think we have enough to be a minor bowl team - and if we can finish the season with a bowl win, I will consider the 1st year of the Dykes era a successful one.

I'm not convinced we have to concede all 4 games to Oregon, Stanford, Washington and Oregon State - but we're not going to beat enough of them to put us in contention for the Pac-12 Championship Game - not to mention games against USC, UCLA and Arizona in the South (okay, we also play Colorado, but if we're hypothesizing contending for the North, you assume we'd beat Colorado).

I think Kevin puts it best - we will ruin someone's season. From that perspective, I sure hope it is in the Big Game

buy:

the stench that jeff tedford and company had become is finally gone. the days of predictable play calling, conservative 4th down and 4th quarter decisions and "playing to win the second half" are over. New coach Sonny Dykes brings a new, simpler offense that uses much of Cal's talent instead of wasting it waiting for the next "savior" at QB. The Bears have arguably the most explosive weapon in the pac-12 in Brenden Bigelow in which he will likely get a lot of touches regardless of his blocking ability. When Dykes was asked about Bigelow's lack of blocking skills, he simply responded saying if that if he cant block, then we wont ask him to. A reasonable logical approach as compared to the previous regime which insisted on keeping bigelow on the bench if he could not block.

The bears will likely get a lift out of the QB position. Zach Maynard was arguably one of the worst decision makers in college football last season despite putting up medicre numbers. Zach Kline, Jared Goff and Austin Hinder each have a multitude of talents and combined with Dyke's system, should make for a much more efficient and effective offense.

The schedule is tough and while there are a number of teams that could challenge to be in the top 25, cal plays 3 home nonconference games which at least gives cal the home field advantage. Oregon has lost its mastermind head coach so it will be interesting to see how the ducks recover. USC looks to be going down the tubes and Tosh Lupoi seemed to have brought his stench to UW in 2012. There are tough yet winnable games for the Bears in 2013.

needed some positivity.....

I'll never say never. We always have a shot and good things can (and sometimes do) happen with a new coach and a new system, but winning the North might be a bit of a stretch at this point (particularly given this schedule - yikes). Nevertheless, I'll be in the stadium cheering on the Bears all season and hoping to make this a reality.

kinda silly speculating if Cal can win the Northern Division ... THIS year.
Not just Bigg but also Lasco will give Cal a helluva one-two punch at RB, as we used to have .. and behind them are a couple of guys who showed in practice that they want to and can play.

BUY ... if what's being sold is Cal's ability to pull a couple (or more) upsets.
Cal could really cause heartburn for some of the "buyers" of other programs.
6-6 with a bowl would be a nice turn-around and set Cal up nicely for 2014.

going4roses;842108705 said:

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http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/55206/buy-or-sell-california-bears
Buy or sell California winning the North?

Ted Miller

Sell: We don't want to squelch California fans' optimism. This team has some intriguing talent on both sides of the ball. But there's a lot weighing against it challenging for the top spot in the North Division, starting with the North Division. It's brutal.

The Bears seem like a long shot to break the top four, with Stanford and Oregon at the top and Washington and Oregon State looking like top-25 teams. In fact, the basement dweller might still be thinking bowl game into the final weeks of the season. Washington State looks like the main rival this year for the Bears.

Just consider: You've got a team coming off a 3-9 season with a new coaching staff, significantly new systems on both sides of the ball, a new starting quarterback and a brutal schedule.

There are eight teams with legitimate top-25 potential on the slate, and three are among everyone's national title contenders: Ohio State, Oregon and Stanford. The South Division misses -- Arizona State and Utah -- are a decided mixed bag.

An enthusiasm bump for coach Sonny Dykes can only do so much. There's a reason coach Jeff Tedford was fired after 11 seasons: The program had plateaued and started a downward trend. Hard to correct that in a single year.

It's reasonable to put a long-term buy rating for the Bears under Dykes, particularly with sparkling new facilities bolstering recruiting. But for the short-term investor, we suggest a buyer beware.

Kevin Gemmell

Sell: I'm selling, too. However, it's not because California is installing new systems on both sides of the ball. We saw last year what kind of a jump start new coaches running new systems can bring to a program. Three of the four new coaches in 2012 with their newly-installed systems -- Rich Rodriguez, Todd Graham, Jim Mora -- had immediate success and went to bowl games. Heck, the Bruins won the South with complete offensive and defensive overhauls. So there is precedent.

Plus, we've seen that having a first-time starter at quarterback doesn't necessarily mean a one-year death sentence for a program anymore. From Brett Hundley and Marcus Mariota to Kevin Hogan and Taylor Kelly, we saw what first-time starters are capable of.

I don't see either of these as Cal's major obstacles.

The reason I'm selling the Bears is because I don't think they can win the division with the current level of competition within the North. Ted used the word brutal. That's generous. Barbarous might be a more apt description. And I just don't see a scenario this year where they beat three of those top four teams Ted mentioned.

I will say this, however. The Bears are going to spoil someone's season. I don't know if it will be Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State or Washington, but I wouldn't rule out Cal knocking off one of those teams along the way. Because the talent is there on both sides of the ball to catch one of those teams off guard. And I wouldn't count them out of a bowl berth, either. But I don't see the Bears knocking off enough of those top-end teams to earn a spot in the conference title game.

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Thank god, Miller's confidence in us is a kiss of death in past years.

StillNoStanfurdium;842108722 said:

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Thank god, Miller's confidence in us is a kiss of death in past years.

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+1 Hahaha!

Hey Sebasta bear, maybe you should change that apple to golden yellow. Aren't people programmed to be disturbed by blue food. That fruit scares me

Where's the Arrested Development clip when you need it? Don't buy! Don't buy! Don't buy!

[SIZE="4"]Buy like every year.[/SIZE] [SIZE="1"]Then again, I'm a professional drunk...[/SIZE]

5-7 wins would make me very happy

Buy - immediately after the Oregon game.

FCBear;842108821 said:

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5-7 wins would make me very happy

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I'd be pissed if we only win 5 games.
But it would be preposterous to bet that we will win the division over Oregon who had gone to 4 straight BCS Bowls.

barr2dawkins;842108739 said:

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Hey Sebasta bear, maybe you should change that apple to golden yellow. Aren't people programmed to be disturbed by blue food. That fruit scares me

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What? My apple is full of awesome blue goodness. Now that Blue Man Group pic that Blueblood used, that was disturbing.

Another year, another projected top-25 finish for Washington. Who wants to bet they go 7-5 again this year?

I don't think we'll win the North, but Kevin Gemmell's analysis is a lot more spot-on than Ted Miller's. And I usually like Miller.

If special teams is 1/3 of the game, do we not have a good shot there to do some damage and help us in a good number of contests?

Bottom line the whole premise of this series is ridiculous (and yes I know that ESPN comes up with these for all their bloggers). Risky to make buy and sell decisions based on a season - really the difference between day trading and investing. If you have even an intermediate term horizon, the Bears are a screaming buy.

If I had to bet either way right now, I'd absolutely sell the Bears right now but it's not because there isn't talent on both sides of the ball. However, based on the Spring, due to recruiting, injuries, and/or just bad luck, both the Offensive Line and the Defensive Backs are extremely thin in both talent, experience, and development at this point.

I am really rooting for both Yenser and Stewart to 'coach em up' and conjure up a dramatic turnaround by late August. I think Cal has a lot of the personnel and hopefully now the coaching/gameplan to do some real damage this year if you look at the quality of our WR's, LB's, and possibly even some average to above average QB play. But if those two areas of weakness (OL/DB) don't improve substantially, I don't see the Bears consistently being able to put together 4 good quarters of football against many of the top teams in the Pac-12.

We'll see how much things can change in the next few months though.

Sebastabear;842109086 said:

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Bottom line the whole premise of this series is ridiculous (and yes I know that ESPN comes up with these for all their bloggers). Risky to make buy and sell decisions based on a season - really the difference between day trading and investing. If you have even an intermediate term horizon, the Bears are a screaming buy.

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+1

Analysis is spot on.

We will be better, but our schedule is absolutely brutal. 7 wins would be good because we would have beaten a lot of good teams, with a chance at +1 in the bowl.

8 wins would be a work of art and don't don't expect anymore than 9 (with the bowl).

6-6 regular season would be where I put us, and if we improve with a solid QB, I'm cool with that.

Davidson;842109160 said:

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6-6 regular season would be where I put us, and if we improve with a solid QB, I'm cool with that.

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:gobears:

Sebastabear;842109029 said:

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What? My apple is full of awesome blue goodness. Now that Blue Man Group pic that Blueblood used, that was disturbing.

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blue apple ??? I thought it was a blueberry :p

maxer;842109049 said:

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Another year, another projected top-25 finish for Washington. Who wants to bet they go 7-5 again this year?

I don't think we'll win the North, but Kevin Gemmell's analysis is a lot more spot-on than Ted Miller's. And I usually like Miller.

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They have a much easier schedule but have big problems to overcome ... like their D :p
I'd be willing to have a friendly wager that they'll go 6-6, because the sure victory against Cal will be an L for them, and that W will help get us to 6-6 and a bowl game of some sort.

ykes

:gobears:

SonOfCalVa;842109200 said:

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blue apple ??? I thought it was a blueberry :p

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Perish the thought!!!!!

Bit of an inside joke. Sebastopol is (or at least used to be) the apple Capital of California. Now it's mainly about the wine. Also solidly Bear Territory. I honestly grew up thinking Stanford was on the East Coast (that's how little they mattered to us); could never figure out why Cal played them every year.

challenging for the Pac-North crown. Recruits need to be phased into the mix, coaching needs to teach and depth needs to be established. We can not afford too many injuries this year if we are to compete for a couple of "upsets" - which most games would qualify for...............

It is hard to deal with OSU and udub being superior to Cal, but we need to beat those teams to change the current perception.

This is all well and good but how is UW looking like a top 25 team? Would be interested to see why 7-win-Sark's squad is any better than they have been in the past.

I wouldn't predict a north title for us either, but don't be surprised if UW and OSU falter and who knows what Oregon will look like with Helfrich at the helm. Could be the same, but no guarantees ...

I think the Bears can be a great team in 2014. They will have experience in almost all skill positions, second year in the system, and lots of talent. This is not an untalented squad. It is a squad that severely underperformed in 2012. A team that had the talent to take Ohio State to the wall, and should have won. A team that fell apart, but that is why we have a new staff.

I do think that year one will be tough, because of the schedule, because of the new coaching. But in our two deep - we probably have better talent than OSU and UW. In 2014, I think there is tremendous opportunity for us to do very well.

If the Bears come out with a 7 win season, and we beat one of Oregon, SC, Stanfurd or Ohio State - a possibility - we will have momentum for a 10 - 12 win season in 2014. If we reach 6-6 - and lose to those teams, we could probably get to a 8 or 9 win season in 2014, and hope to build on that in 2015. But I think we are talented on both sides of the ball and have a decent shot at being very good soon.

Note that if we win 7 games and a bowl game - that would mean we probably beat 4 top 25 teams. So....

gobears725;842108712 said:

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buy:

needed some positivity.....

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Buying your post. Well done.

maxer;842109049 said:

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Another year, another projected top-25 finish for Washington. Who wants to bet they go 7-5 again this year?

I don't think we'll win the North, but Kevin Gemmell's analysis is a lot more spot-on than Ted Miller's. And I usually like Miller.

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Their season was a lot stronger than the record indicates. They had losses to LSU, Oregon, Boise St. and USC, a close loss to an in state rival and 1 other road loss. All but one of their losses was on the road (USC) and their loss to USC was largely because of turnovers.

In addition they beat 2 top 10 teams (Oregon St.-ranked #7 at the time and Stanford).

When you consider the opposition, their defense only had 2 bad games all year (Arizona-52 points and WSU-31 points). Othewise their D held teams under 20 points 7 times.

They have an all conference QB, TE, WR and RB returning and 8 of the 9 OLs that started a game last year are returning, including 4 of the 5 1st string and 2 3rd year lettermen.

The much improved defense returns 8 of 11 starters and 2 of the 3 losses are at DB where they are deep.

The schedule will be tough again and they will probably win only 7, which should tell us that 7 wins in this conference is nothing to sneeze at. If they show that they can win on the road, they will be a top 25 team.

I'm not expecting Cal to beat them in Washington, but it should be a good game as usual. Having said that, Cal outplayed Washington in Berkeley last year but was plagued by a poor red zone offense, turn-overs, the injury to Maynard and a missed field goal. Washington has been incredibly lucky for 3 years running in games against Cal. One of these days their luck is going to run out.

heartofthebear;842109881 said:

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Their season was a lot stronger than the record indicates. They had losses to LSU, Oregon, Boise St. and USC, a close loss to an in state rival and 1 other road loss. All but one of their losses was on the road (USC) and their loss to USC was largely because of turnovers.

In addition they beat 2 top 10 teams (Oregon St.-ranked #7 at the time and Stanford).

When you consider the opposition, their defense only had 2 bad games all year (Arizona-52 points and WSU-31 points). Othewise their D held teams under 20 points 7 times.

They have an all conference QB, TE, WR and RB returning and 8 of the 9 OLs that started a game last year are returning, including 4 of the 5 1st string and 2 3rd year lettermen.

The much improved defense returns 8 of 11 starters and 2 of the 3 losses are at DB where they are deep.

The schedule will be tough again and they will probably win only 7, which should tell us that 7 wins in this conference is nothing to sneeze at. If they show that they can win on the road, they will be a top 25 team.

I'm not expecting Cal to beat them in Washington, but it should be a good game as usual. Having said that, Cal outplayed Washington in Berkeley last year but was plagued by a poor red zone offense, turn-overs, the injury to Maynard and a missed field goal. Washington has been incredibly lucky for 3 years running in games against Cal. One of these days their luck is going to run out.

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Loss to an in-state rival is a bit meek
... they lost the precious Apple Cup to WSU, a huge humiliation as they 'couged it' (a favorite fusky expression for failure) to the Cougs.

Their all conference TE will be lucky to stay out of jail, but with so many UW grads on the bench who exercise by looking the other way, the drunk TE will probably play.

Their D will meet the BearRaid ... oh, the humiliation if they lose to Cal in their "new" stadium which will still look like folded bat wings with visitors seats so bad only the Coliseum is worse.

Expectations of fusky fans on the DawgBoard, when you get past all the teen aged cussing just to be cussing, is not very optimistic.

Cal beats UW, leaving us 6-6 with a bowl. Very adequate season.
UW loses, which leaves them at 6-6 and fans will be flooding the uDuh campus looking for Sark's head.
Toss to Rodgers without missing a step, at full speed, sends him head to head with Shaq and Shaq gets shacked ... Touchdown Bears !!!

Never say never. And don't say always. But the son always improves on what his old man did. Sonny learned from a master and a legend. He will best what his dad did and he will do it this year.

i dont think the north is as good as theyre acting like it is. none of stanford, osu, or chipless oregon scare me. and im not exactly a homer, ive predicted 7 wins 2 years in a row (granted, coulda been closer last year, but predicting 7 wins is the homer equivalent of 'i think we'll suck')

6bear6;842109970 said:

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Never say never. And don't say always. But the son always improves on what his old man did. Sonny learned from a master and a legend. He will best what his dad did and he will do it this year.

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I loved Spike and he did some things exceptionally well but I would not characterize him as a master. His offense was unique for the era and his outmanned teams often played out of their minds against Texas and A&M.

They were also prone to the occasional inexplicable upset. And his time management was poor.

One of the more memorable games of his tenure kind of summed it all up. 1992- Tech is playing in College Station against undefeated, #5 ranked A&M. Had driven down to the game with a serious Tech fan and buddy. Tech plays a great game and is clinging to a one point lead in closing minutes. A&M is at mid field and qb somehow eludes what would have been game ending sack- drive continues and A&M gets down to about Tech 10 and proceeds to run last 1:20 or so off clock with qb sneaks before calling timeout and kicking game winning field goal as time expired. Tech had three timeouts left and Spike took them all back to Lubbock. He could have used them and given his offense
which featured a fine qb and receiver a minute to try and get in field goal range. Many in Tech section standing on their seats screaming, begging him to call time out.

Get in car with Tech buddy for long ride home. I try to say something polite like " boy, your guys fought their guts out." Silence. Four plus hours of silence till he drops me off with his only words on way home - " I am sick of moral victories."

6bear6;842109970 said:

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Never say never. And don't say always. But the son always improves on what his old man did. Sonny learned from a master and a legend. He will best what his dad did and he will do it this year.

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Sonny has assembled a team of coaches, it's not just him. And he encourages discussion and dissent on his team of coaches. And they all have the same understanding about their jobs, academics first. It's not just a collection of guys with varying resumes and different agendas. And they all, so they say, love to recruit and are thrilling to be recruiting to the University of California.

So, we'll get good recruits, some great ones but guys who want a degree form Cal ... the guys who just want football, who endure academics (or ignore them) won't be sending in LOIs to Cal. They'll pick the Oregons, uDuhs, SEC schools. Does that put Cal at a disadvantage? ... maybe. But Cal is not a football factory where transcripts are altered, payments are made, and rules are bent or broken.

Hate to say this but good for furd that they are successful again by attracting brain and brawn.