Big C_Cal;842119129 said:
Pretty interesting.
Trying to eliminate any possibilities that would keep this from being amazing:
- Any chance the clock is "rigged" for publicity purposes? Highly doubtful.
- PEDs? Well, his musculature doesn't really look that highly developed. I dunno.
- Could he actually be older? Well, in the vid from Vandalus he is noted as 17, but...
Questions:
What is the Japanese national record for 100m? What are, say, their top ten times by different individuals? (just curious, 'cause I don't recall any top Japanese sprinters before)
How soon will he start running against top international competition? (I'm guessing this summer.)
Vandalus, as one of our resident track experts, would you care to talk a little about what physical characteristics, at the elite level, make one person faster than another?
Would this guy care to continue his athletic and academic education at the University of California, Berkeley?
Not necessarily in order, and
way too long but here we go. And you asked, so I'm going overboard admittedly because no one asks about track ;-) :
As an initial comment - I should make clear. The 10.01 is completely a legit time. It's been IAAF certified. In fact, it's the fastest time run in the world - by anyone - this year, according to the IAAF website:
http://www.iaaf.org/records/toplists/sprints/100-metres/outdoor/men/senior/2013 So yeah, this is a huge deal. That looked to be a very professional set up for a meet. That's a legit course and legit time. This isn't some hand timed race at the local HS with your English teacher doing the hand timing. This was a big time meet.
1) After I posted the video of the 10.01, I looked him up on wikipedia and realized that the 10.19 was actually run back in November 2012 (when he was 16). He was born Dec. 15, 1995, and the 10.01 was run April 29. Ages 16 and under is considered "youth" whereas 19 and under (on Dec. 31 of the competition year) is considered Junior.
2) Something to consider: I don't know what Japanese high school track and field scheduling is like, but if it's anything like the US, and track and field in general, this is right about the time to start changing the workouts to start your peak. You've built base during the winter (fall if you are a collegiate or professional) and started to slowly change the tempo and distance of workouts to back off intensity and allow for top speed to be elicited. In HS, you obviously want to peak right in time for State qualifications. If you are elite (professional), your peak time is late summer typically (Olympics, US Nationals, World T&F Championships, Pan-Am games, etc.). In any event - my guess is that he's peaking right now.
3a) To give a comparison - his time as an (old) 16 year old of 10.19 broke the Asian junior record which was previously 10.21 and broken in 2012 - also held by a Japanese kid. The prior record was broken in 2011, also by a Japanese kid...
3b) His 10.01 ties the junior
world record with Darrell Brown (PR 9.99) and Jeff Demps (PR 9.96). i.e., faster than Bolt at the same age. Also of note Asian
Continent world record, for all ages, is 9.99 held by a guy from Quatar... So in a word, as best I can tell, he is if not the fastest Japanese sprinter of all time, only off by .02 seconds.
However, as you will note - the two other holders of the junior WR didn't get appreciably faster as they got older.
4) Re body types, it's hard to answer since speeds at this age are so rare. I wish I had a video or picture of Demps at 17 when he ran his 10.01 also to compare. My sense is, based on how yoked Demps is now, and because he was playing football, that he was bulkier than this kid. This guy's body reminds me of my good buddy Vince Williams (went to SC, from my neighborhood and a former teammate of mine along with Felix Sanchez, the double gold medalist in the 400m hurdles) and to be honest, me. Vince ran a Pr of 10.14/20.50, but we had literally the exact same body, both 5'10.5" and 157. Skinnish but with a lot of lean muscle in the legs. I'm sure if someone did a study to find the average of all the top 50 sprinters in the world, your average height would be between 5'9-5'11. I rarely felt short on the track, and I can't tell you the number of tall dudes that I ran down from behind in the relays.
As a general rule, almost all great sprinters have a few characteristics, of which Bolt is the complete and utter exception. You have to be tall enough to have a good stride length, but not too tall that you can't have a fast enough stride frequency. Speed, at its basic level, is about stride length times stride frequency. For some reason, even though Bolt is 6'4", he is able to get a good if not great start, which sets him up during the later stages because while his frequency might be just slightly less than another elite sprinter, he's got a WAY longer stride length, so he just pushes past people like they are standing still.
Most guys at the elite level are bulked up (way too much in my opinion), with some notable exceptions of true lean muscle athletes. I think, regrettably, that there is a lot of PED's in sprinting, always has and always will be, so you see guys that are just jacked unnecessarily. This guy looks pretty lean to me. He also looks older and/or more developed than a typical 17 year old track kid (certainly more than I ever did at that age). Given his time, he's a shoe in to run for Japan this summer internationally. He will probably not run this fast however - given my suspicion that he's peaking now because he likely won't be able to keep it up all through the summer, although who knows. He may not be peaking now?
He is pretty well coached from what I can see. If you re-watch the closeup that's done in slow mo, he keeps his gaze/head down for at least 15m-20m, which is all coaching. No one does that naturally, you have to be taught to do that. That phase of the race you want to be explosive and keep a low center of gravity. Too often people want to stand up out of the blocks and start running with an elongated stride, which is exactly what you shouldn't do.
And lastly ... in case anyone else is still reading... jesus, I've written a dissertation. Just for fun, I went back and looked at what Bolt was doing at the same age. bolt wasn't even running the 100m. I forgot this until I just looked. In 2003, when he was 17/18 he was strictly a 200/400 guy. PR of 20.13 (1st in world juniors, 9th overall), and 45.35 (4th in the world juniors).
Then, in 2004 he runs a 19.93, again first in the world for a junior, but second overall in the world for all athletes. Still - no 100m times in the IAAF archives. It took until 2007 for him to run in the 100m, when he dropped a 10.03, for 12th in the world at 21 years old. The next year he broke the world record with a 9.69 in Beijing... In the span of two years he put it all together and got his start down to the point that he was crushing the record books.