Sports fascinates me because there is so much drama and humanism inherent in them. The sudden rise and/or fall of a team and/or a player is particularly interesting to me. That is partly why I continue to be fascinated by JTs legacy at Cal. Maybe it's the scientist in me that wants to find cause and effect explanations for these things when maybe there is no explanation.

As a Giants fan, I really thought that they would be a contender again this year. Certainly the constant progression of injuries is the easiest explanation for failing to realize that. And you can point to the Pagan injury as the point when everything changed for the Giants. Is one player, Pagan, really that important? Or could there be deeper reasons? I mean they had serious injury problems both years they were champions. So maybe an equally good question is why they won in 2010 and 2012 rather than why they are last place team now. 2010 and 2012 weren't the same either. In 2010 it was wholly about the pitching. The 2012 team often won with hitting.

In following this year's team, one thing seems more clear than anything. Little things are big things in baseball. IOWs there are no little things. The margin between winning and losing is often not much. The Giants seem to be hit with a storm of failings at the little things this year, things that seemed to all go their way in past years.

But I am beginning to wonder if there is also a systemic problem that the championship years overshadowed. The championship years were characterized not only by pitching but by the emergence of home grown position players like Sandoval, Posey, Crawford and Belt. Even back-up catcher Sanchez was a home grown hero last year. It was these developments that made me bullish on the Giants. But the Giants have not been able to draw on their minor league talent this year when they needed outfield help.

Do the Giants have a problem developing outfielders beyond AAA? For over a decade several players that were stars at AAA flirted with the major leagues but couldn't stick. They have been trying find a left fielder ever since Barry Bonds left. It's been more than 5 years now. Where have all the home grown outfielders gone?

Historically outfielders are your best offensive players, other than 1st base and sometimes 3rd base, you get your best lead-off hitter, RBI guy and HR guy from the outfield. Not the Giants though and it shows with the constant inabilitly to drive runners in from scoring position. They aren't going to get these guys from free agency as those guys generally prefer to play in hitter's parks. So they need to come from the minor league system.

Is Roger Kieschnick the answer? Do they have any other power hitters ready for the Bigs in the next year or two?

Thoughts?

Idk, they keep trying to blame it on fatigue but, I'm not buying it. Injuries def haven't helped. I'm at a loss...

11th in the league in allowing runs

12th in the league in scoring runs.

GB54;842154347 said:

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11th in the league in allowing runs

12th in the league in scoring runs.

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It's not so much the stats that interest me but why those became the stats.

The slide started with Pagan's injury. I think he's a huge part of the clubhouse chemistry. It also forced them to turn that LF platoon of Blanco/Torres into more full-time roles for those guys (until recently). That further exposed the lineup weaknesses. There are other factors as well, of course, but I think he's a major loss.

philbert_Cal;842154358 said:

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The slide started with Pagan's injury. I think he's a huge part of the clubhouse chemistry. It also forced them to turn that LF platoon of Blanco/Torres into more full-time roles for those guys (until recently). That further exposed the lineup weaknesses. There are other factors as well, of course, but I think he's a major loss.

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I agree about Pagan and I meant to add that to the list of questions in my OP-still could.

Hard to believe that one guy who was only hitting .270 and only had a few SBs could make that much difference. Let's not forget that the Giants had great team chemistry before Pagan arrived in 2012.

Still everything points to the loss of Pagan as being the turning point. And Pagan is personally one of my favorite Giants, maybe the favorite. The Giants just don't seem to be the same without him and it's not even close.

heartofthebear;842154354 said:

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It's not so much the stats that interest me but why those became the stats.

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Cain, Vogelsong and Zito are three whys

I think, as Bochy said, that the team just doesn't deal with adversity well as everything seemed to go their way two out of the last three years and this year it was different. How can they not get a runner in from third with less than two outs over and over and over?

Last year they picked up a spark in Scutaro- this year we pick up Francour- a 209 hitter and pitchers like Moscoso.. Really??? It's like they threw in the towel but I'm glad he didn't sell off anyone for cheap.

Maybe there's a mental reason why nobody repeats as WS champs anymore but I also expected to be competitive with basically the same team.. They just got on a negative roll and never snapped out of it. Hopefully they'll learn a lot from this year and be stronger mentally in the future.

They quit smoking pot.

They Suck?

No Munchies In The Clubhouse?

Pagan hurt
Pence underperformed
No LF
Panda hurt and fat
Crawford and Belt both struggled to hit their stride
Zito back to earth
Timmy never lifts off
Vogey hurt and age caught up to him
Hector Sanchez regressed
Relievers were not as good (Kontos, mijares and affeldt in particular).

All happened at once so huge losing streak just as doyers start winning.

It happens to even te best franchises.

As for farm, despite BA saying the minors are 26th, that is a bit deceptive. Posey and Crawford are very young. Belt and panda too (but until they prove themselves not quite in same league--although I think belt's change of grip will make him the real deal). Add to that a number of both starting and relief pitchers.

Roger K may be the real deal. He's been pretty good and I believe same class as posey and Crawford. Unfortunately, he's had an injury riddled career to date. Aaa is a bit bare (although Pegs, Jurica and Chris Domiguez could be solid contributors as back ups etc). Sanchez is very young and also should be counted.

AA has Panik, angel V and Susac who are pretty solid. Panik and Angel V could be starters--they've hit very well in the Eastern League which is by all accounts very tough. Panik appears to be a chip off of scurato's block. Angel V has been very good and might push Belt into LF.

Pitching in minors is SICK. We have seven legit starters in Escobar, crick, Blackburn, Flores, Stratton, agousta and meja. Relievers are equally stocked with Hembree, Hall, Osich and Dunning.

The Giants signed most of their top 35 picks and the early reviews are very good. Organizationally big holes are OF positions and probably 3b.

Don't give up hope.

heartofthebear;842154333 said:

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And you can point to the Pagan injury as the point when everything changed for the Giants. Is one player, Pagan, really that important? Or could there be deeper reasons?

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Pagan has a .688 OPS this year. He was hardly playing well when he got hurt. His injury and the increased losing after that is more coincidence than cause and effect.

The biggest factor is that Cain, Vogelsong, Zito, and Lincecum have had terrible years (Lincecum has shown some signs of coming out of that recently and perhaps adjusting to not being able to throw as hard any more). When the team was good, they were dependent on being able to shut down opposing offenses keeping the game in reach for their mediocre at best offense. When you have four starters that at points in the year have had ERA's over 5, you're not going to win.

Additionally, I'd say the unusually good performance of the starting pitching in past year has masked the fact that the offense has a lot of holes in it. In the two World Series years, the effectiveness of their offense was often dependent on players who over the long haul aren't all that great offensively (Cody Ross, Marco Scutaro) playing way above their norms. Most teams aren't going to go into a regular season willingly starting a platoon of Gregor Blanco and Andres Torres. Pence is OK, but not the impact player that his salary suggests he would be. Belt has been a lot better lately, but he's not a great producer for a first baseman over his career. And Pablo, well he just doesn't seem to be very committed to being the best player he can be based on how out of shape he's been.

Going forward, they're going to have to develop a lot more position players in their minor league system because free agents aren't going to be leaping at the chance to watch their long fly balls die in right-center field.

Crappy pitching due to horrible seasons by Cain, Lincecum, and Zito and the injury to Vogelsong. Add to that incredible ineptitude at the plate, with terrible performance by Blanco, Crawford, Sandoval,Torres, and until recently, Belt. The injury to Pagan really hurt. Sandoval needs to be told to lose a minimum of 30 pounds or get cut. Zito must be jetisoned at the end of the season, and Lincecum should be traded for a power hitter. Blanco, Crawford and Torres are not legitimate big-league hitters. The real miracle is how this team won 2 out of the last 3 world series.

Last 2 contributions very comprehensive, explains a good deal of what has happened. I would take issue with the focus on bad SP this year. The fact is that the last month the SP has been very good. And yet many games have been lost when the Giants SP pitched well. I think the problem is that the RP has not held up to support good SP performances and the hitting just isn't there.

Personally I have zero confidence in Mijares and not much comfidence in many of the others. Romo should not be a closer long term IMO. If you can't throw a FB faster than 91, I don't care how good the slider is, you are too vulnerable to be in that role, eventually. He is a top notch set up guy but the Giants need someone more in the mold of Wilson again.

And whatever happened to the defense which helped them win last year, it needs to come back asap.

You look at this team and you see them losing at times when they should be winning. Pitchers getting extra base hits off of our pitcher with 2 strikes on them. Our best batters not even being able to get a run home from 3rd with nobody out in a crucial point in the game.

There is no mental toughness to get it done when the game is on the line and many time even lousy teams seem to be able to come back and steal a win.

It's true that Cain has become too hitable and Vogi is aging but Gaudin has pitched well enough to win and yet failed to get support at times and the Giants have given away a slew of games that Baumgarner had set them up to win. Lincecum is pitching well enough to win, and so is Cain now, but they don't, usually.

I'm not falling for the OP's trolling. This thread is really depressing.

Bad sushi !!!!

Golden One;842154413 said:

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Crappy pitching due to horrible seasons by Cain, Lincecum, and Zito and the injury to Vogelsong. Add to that incredible ineptitude at the plate, with terrible performance by Blanco, Crawford, Sandoval,Torres, and until recently, Belt. The injury to Pagan really hurt. Sandoval needs to be told to lose a minimum of 30 pounds or get cut. Zito must be jetisoned at the end of the season, and Lincecum should be traded for a power hitter. Blanco, Crawford and Torres are not legitimate big-league hitters. The real miracle is how this team won 2 out of the last 3 world series.

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Crawford is seventh in the league as a hitter for shortstops.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/stats/byposition?pos=SS&conference=MLB&year=season_2013&qualified=1&sort=25

Is he a great hitter compared to all positions? No, of course he isn't. He doesn't have much power and he doesn't walk a lot, so his ability to get on base is pretty dependent on his batting average. But he isn't really a big problem for the team. I would say Scutaro's health and Pablo Sandoval's fatness are bigger offensive concerns than offensive production from the shortstop position.

NYCGOBEARS;842154418 said:

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I'm not falling for the OP's trolling. This thread is really depressing.

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sorry, didn't mean to depress, more of a curiosity/mystery than anything.

Intermezzo;842154423 said:

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Crawford is seventh in the league as a hitter for shortstops.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/stats/byposition?pos=SS&conference=MLB&year=season_2013&qualified=1&sort=25

Is he a great hitter compared to all positions? No, of course he isn't. He doesn't have much power and he doesn't walk a lot, so his ability to get on base is pretty dependent on his batting average. But he isn't really a big problem for the team. I would say Scutaro's health and Pablo Sandoval's fatness are bigger offensive concerns than offensive production from the shortstop position.

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Crawford was also hitting pretty well until he had a hand injury early in the year. His improved hitting of late and his move into the #2 slot would make it look like he's over the injury. However, he still wears an oven mitt when he runs the bases as a precaution.

heartofthebear;842154441 said:

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sorry, didn't mean to depress, more of a curiosity/mystery than anything.

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I know. I was half kidding.

Crawford is also a gold glove caliber Ss. He's not the problem.

And no way Timmy is worth anyone of merit unti he proves he can pitch again. He will get a qualifying offer and stick with the club for one year.

Intermezzo;842154423 said:

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Crawford is seventh in the league as a hitter for shortstops.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/stats/byposition?pos=SS&conference=MLB&year=season_2013&qualified=1&sort=25

Is he a great hitter compared to all positions? No, of course he isn't. He doesn't have much power and he doesn't walk a lot, so his ability to get on base is pretty dependent on his batting average. But he isn't really a big problem for the team. I would say Scutaro's health and Pablo Sandoval's fatness are bigger offensive concerns than offensive production from the shortstop position.

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Agreed, Crawford is doing fine. He's not the problem with this team.

A lot of things went wrong at once. First, injuries: Pagan, Vogelsong, Scutaro, Sandoval, Casilla, Affeldt, etc. The Giants were fortunate in 2012 in that they saw their regulars largely remain healthy. Didn't happen this time, and this was NOT a team built with a lot of depth so they were probably uniquely unprepared to handle these injuries. Secondly, sudden regression all over the place: Cain, Blanco, Torres, Sandoval again (when he's seen the field), Zito.

I'm not blaming Lincecum because he's actually pitched better this year than last, but there's no doubt that he hasn't regained his pre-2012 form. Pence has also been serviceable, and actually has hit better this year than he did after coming to the Giants last year, though again I think the organization expected one of these guys to contribute more than they did. Similarly, they expected either Blanco or Torres to become a decent regular in the outfield and both have stunk.

Some things are just unexplainable. Last season the Giants had a terrific defense. This season I don't think they are putting any regular players in the starting 8 who would be considered poor defensive players (except maybe Sandoval, though generally he has rated out as about an average 3B), but for some reason the defense has been terrible. Who knows? Baseball is a weird game and sometimes guys just regress quickly. It's also not like basketball where you can point at one guy's absence to explain a sudden fall -- it's a lot of little things going wrong at once.

Their pitching was so dominant that is masked the lack of offensive productivity. A pitching staff cannot be that dominant for very long.

hummbabybear;842154472 said:

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Their pitching was so dominant that is masked the lack of offensive productivity. A pitching staff cannot be that dominant for very long.

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The Giants had an above-average offense in 2010 and 2012. That was the reason they were championship-caliber in those years and not in 2009 or 2011.

This year both the offense and the pitching fell off the map.

aweissburg;842154464 said:

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Crawford is also a gold glove caliber Ss. He's not the problem.

And no way Timmy is worth anyone of merit unti he proves he can pitch again. He will get a qualifying offer and stick with the club for one year.

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You really think he"ll stay? I don't disagree about the offer but I think a few teams will make better offers because he still shows signs of brilliance

GB54;842154484 said:

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You really think he"ll stay? I don't disagree about the offer but I think a few teams will make better offers because he still shows signs of brilliance

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The losing of a top draft pick will be a significant deterrent to him getting an offer from someone else.

When a pitching staff is amazing one outing, and completely smoked the next,
the pitching coach simply is not doing his job. Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results, is, come on boys and girls, insane.

Hire Tom House, or another pitching guru.


:axe

aweissburg;842154464 said:

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Crawford is also a gold glove caliber Ss. He's not the problem.

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His defense hasn't been anywhere near Gold Glove quality this season by any defensive measure you want to pick - new age stats or fielding percentage. But he should be a good defensive shortstop over the long haul.

Irishbear;842154490 said:

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When a pitching staff is amazing one outing, and completely smoked the next,
the pitching coach simply is not doing his job. Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results, is, come on boys and girls, insane.

Hire Tom House, or another pitching guru.


:axe

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Righetti has a pretty strong track record and reputation that won't be undone by one bad season. I highly doubt he's getting fired. Sometimes s*** just happens. Pitchers are mercurial.

syncasy: I like your take. There are whole lot of explanations that break-down to q whole lot of unexplanables. It seems like they are no longer playing as a team.

I think they were disproportionately impacted by the WBC which cut further into a World Series-shortened offseason. Not sure if any other teams had as many players participate and get injured: Casilla, Sandoval, Pagan, Affeldt, Scuataro and even though is injury didn't result from the WBC, perhaps Vogelsong's brutal first 6 weeks did. Only Romo seemed to escape injury.
While all of the other causal factors mentioned above make sense too, my gut is the WBC was a bad deal for the Giants. Just my theory....