I can't think of any successful coaches/turnarounds where there was a similarly apocalyptical season as we just had.

Does anyone have some examples of coaches who clearly faceplanted in their first year only to go on to successful tenures?

calbearo;842232651 said:

---

I can't think of any successful coaches/turnarounds where there was a similarly apocalyptical season as we just had.

Does anyone have some examples of coaches who clearly faceplanted in their first year only to go on to successful tenures?

---

Not saying Sonny-D is going to end up like these two, but you never know

Coach A

Year, W-L
1, 1-10
2, 5-6
3, 7-4
4, 5-6
5, 9-2 (1 tie)
6, 9-3
7, 10-2
8, 9-3
9, 11-1
10, 11-2
11, 11-1
...and more

The coach is Bill Snyder at K-State, current record 176-90-1


Coach B

School 1
Year, W-L
1, 6-5

Left for an OC position for 1 year before returning as a HC at a different school.

School 2
Year, W-L
1, 1-10
2, 4-7
3, 6-6

Left for another HC position

School 3
Year, W-L
1, 1-10
2, 1-10 (at this point had a 19-48 record as a head coach)
3, 6-4 (1 tie)
4, 7-4
5, 9-3
6, 10-3
7, 8-4
8, 7-5
9, 10-2
10, 10-1 (Left school with a 69-46-1 record after 2-20 in first two years)

The coach... our favorite Mack "Kneepads" Brown while at North Carolina. He left for Texas after a decade at North Carolina, and he now has a 243-120-1 HC record. Interesting that he led two schools to 1 win his first year at each school (Tulane & North Carolina), he had a losing HC record when he left Tulane for the North Carolina position, and he has had three 1 win seasons.

So anything is possible... right? Help us Oskie-Wan-Kanobi, you're our only hope!

GO BEARS!!! :cheer

Mike MacIntyre went 1-12 in his first year at SJSU in 2010.

The only win was against Southern Utah. They LOST to UC Davis. They were competitive in losses to Idaho, Utah St., and NMSU.

5-7 in year 2. 10-2 in year 3.

Good stuff guys.

Before Mac, 2 wins. So, based upon the win / loss column, it seems that Mac might not have been a good hire. It's just a one win delta though. After just looking, as said above, the Spartans actually seemed to be in closer games though, compared to the previous season.

Their last two games, while losses, were one score differentials. The aforementioned Utah State loss, also just 1 score. New Mexico State, a 1 point loss. At Wisconsin, a 2 score loss...

4 losses, 5 including Davis, by one score. The ranked Badgers, two scores. They were quite competitive in a good portion of their games...

Ok, some more data:

2009 - SJSU offense 13.8 ppg
2010 - SJSU offense 16.1 ppg

2009 - SJSU defense 34.5 ppg
2010 - SJSU defense 34.7 ppg

The D didn't improve, ever so slightly worse, but the O picked-up. These are the kinds of nuggets you want to find to see if the first year staff is making a positive impact...

BILL WALSH. 2-14 in his first year with the Niners.

Dykes walked into a terrible position and needs patience.

kad02002;842232729 said:

---

BILL WALSH. 2-14 in his first year with the Niners.

Dykes walked into a terrible position and needs patience.

---

And the year before, 1978, 2 wins also. In looking under the hood though, reason for optimism. In 1978, the Niners scored 20 points or more just 3 times. In 1979 under Walsh - 11 times! More competitive...

Finding good to great coaches that started off "bad" needs to be qualified, compared to the previous year. Walsh, while not obvious at first blush, improved this team his first year on the job.

Such hires make a difference. When that difference is identified, there's reason to believe the hire will bear fruit over time. If there is no such indication, then there is uncertainty. And if the opposite happens, things get worse, that is clearly a red flag, and reason for concern...

I decided to go through all the great NFL coaches when I was kid, and just found another example - Tom Landry (Cowboys).

He went winless in his first season, yet later to be one of the greatest HC's of all time. That said though, it was not just his first season, but that of the franchise too, so a whole different dynamic at play. And of course, no opportunity to compare to the previous year, trying to discern the value add of the HC and staff...

Because he was a great coach, I'd surmise that if a HC preceded him, he too would have made for an improvement in the team his first year...

Cal89;842232732 said:

---

I decided to go through all the great NFL coaches when I was kid, and just found another example - Tom Landry (Cowboys).

He went winless in his first season, yet later to be one of the greatest HC's of all time. That said though, it was not just his first season, but that of the franchise too, so a whole different dynamic at play. And of course, no opportunity to compare to the previous year, trying to discern the value add of the HC and staff...

Because he was a great coach, I'd surmise that if a HC preceded him, he too would have made for an improvement in the team his first year...

---

There are similarities this year between Cal and a new franchise in the NFL. Inferior talent, for one. Add in the injuries and its too hard to judge Dykes. They call it a sinking ship for a reason...this thing had a bunch of momentum going to the bottom of the sea when Dykes took over. Got to slow that momentum before you can get it back to the surface.

First year at Cal: 1-9 (Pappy was 3-7 the previous year)
Second year at Cal: ROSE BOWL

Not saying Sonny has a chance of being like that, but it is interesting to note that Elliott introduced a radically different system (split-T)

Also, one of the great program builders in history, Lou Holtz. After a successful, already hall of fame caliber career, know what his record was his first season at South Carolina? Hint: worse than Dykes at Cal. Thats right, 0-11. Man, he must have been awful!! Game passed him by!! Whats that? Huh? He went 8-4 in year two? Okay, forget what I said.

Joking aside, it is ludicrous to judge a coach on one season with inferior talent. College football is about building programs and you can't build before you can recruit your own players who buy into your ideology. I'm not guaranteeing success (though I happen to think the coaches are very good), but you just can't make a definitive statement that a coach is a failure after year one under these circumstances.

Holtz's records elsewhere in his first season: 3-7 William and Mary, 8-3-1 NC State, 11-1 Arkansas, 4-7 Minnesota, 5-6 Notre Dame (terrible for their standards at the time), and the aforementioned 0-11 with SC.

Bill McCartney and Frank Beamer started with two win seasons as well. Lots of examples of guys who turned the corner, but did it fairly quickly after that.

UrsaMajor;842232756 said:

---

First year at Cal: 1-9 (Pappy was 3-7 the previous year)
Second year at Cal: ROSE BOWL

Not saying Sonny has a chance of being like that, but it is interesting to note that Elliott introduced a radically different system (split-T)

---

Good point. I don't think people understand all of the difficulties in transitioning systems. It takes time...

I wish a few posters had more business and sports experience, or understood the development of athletes...so tired of the "fire everyone" posts.

Thank you for this thread.

XXXBEAR;842232767 said:

---

I wish a few posters had more business and sports experience, or understood the development of athletes...so tired of the "fire everyone" posts.

Thank you for this thread.

---

Agree 100%

None of us are in the locker room (well I assume 99.9% of us at least) and not so close to the program to see all the little things that are involved in good coaching. Our sports media SUCKS (for example, grading out Sonny would be immensely helped by understanding why we made the line change and why we didn't get that right at the start of the season).

It is also clear that Tedford failed to recruit a few VERY key pieces to both Dykes and Buh's schemes: We needed a big back who can run through arm tackles because the scheme up front is not going to create huge kick out A and B gap holes; we need 1 (or 2) speed guys at the defensive end to set edges and put pressure on the QB; and we ideally a bigger WR to help block on the edge.

But NEXT YEAR Sonny can't blame the former regime (as much). We have to look better on the field - if not in the W/L at least in respect to being competitive for longer and not getting blown out by halftime.

I appreciate the effort for working the numbers. I wouldn't throw NFL coaches in the mix because of the draft. Your point is a guy can turn it around, and I agree. However, I think recruiting makes it harder than getting the help of the Draft (and now, of course, Free Agency)...

Yeah...Sonny is the next Lou Holtz. Wonder if Holtz hired a guy fired at Henderson State for OL coach or gave a giant three-year DC contract to a guy your arch rival fired as DC...Sonny is in waay over head. That's not a crime but let's not be naive.
"Play fast" everybody...

KSU, prior to Snyder's arrival, had perhaps the worst cumulative W-L record in the history of major college football. Interestingly, in light of Dykes' professed intention to bring in several JC guys, the key to Snyder's success has come from successfully mining Juco ranks.

Isn't Washington State bowl eligible in year 2????? They had a year 1 comparable to the Bears year 1 only they probably had more dissension along the way with players openly complaining to the press. That has been a pretty amazing reversal! Leach had lots of people wanting to get rid of him DURING year 1.

2008 Udub 0-12 Ty Willingham - Sark next year
2009 WSU 1-11 Wulff - 2 wins next year - 4 wins next year - Leach next year
2006 Furd 1-11 Harris - Harball next year
1995 OSU Beavs 1-10 Pettibone - 2 wins next year - fired
2003 Ariz 2-10 Mackovic - Stoops next year
2012 Colorado 1-11 Embree - Mccintyre this year

Bump

89Bear;842232814 said:

---

Isn't Washington State bowl eligible in year 2????? They had a year 1 comparable to the Bears year 1 only they probably had more dissension along the way with players openly complaining to the press. That has been a pretty amazing reversal! Leach had lots of people wanting to get rid of him DURING year 1.

---

Leach was 3-9 and competitive in many games. SD was 1-11 and carpet bombed by the opposition in nearly every game. Really not comparable seasons at all.

Darby;842232867 said:

---

Leach was 3-9 and competitive in many games. SD was 1-11 and carpet bombed by the opposition in nearly every game. Really not comparable seasons at all.

---

3 wins and a near mutiny means WSU was in a pretty crappy spot. There were a bunch of blowouts. Not as many but a lot. Wins over Eastern Washington and UNLV

I see the intent of this thread, and I like it. We want to able to say - see that guy (who is a great, recognized coach), started poorly too. And by that, giving us some reason for hope that SD also can turn things around, and might even become a fixture in Cal history. As Cal fans, we all want to see some light. After such a dismal season, and last few years in general, we can certainly use something that gives us reason for hope...

Having looked into such instances, if we truly want to find correlation, there is often evidence that the hire was a good one in that poor first year.

If we simply want a feel good story, then don't look further into such occurrences (good / great coaches with poor first seasons).

Bill Snyder was brought-up, at least once here. Indeed, started 1-10. He's a legend of sorts now at K State. Wow, SD also won just one game. Ok, with that some will choose to feel some hope that SD can do the same at Cal. Ok, I want that hope too, but I truly want it to be well-found and not just something to dull the pain...

In 1988, the year before Bill Snyder's first year, KSU was winless. Not just winless, but dating back to mid-season, 1986! In his first year (1989), they won a game. Just one game, but after going winless for so long, that's better than a stick in the eye. Snyder's teams are known for stingy D's. The year before his arrival, the Wildcats gave-up 41 ppg. In his first year - 32. Wow. Very notable evidence that this guy was making a difference, more so than the 1 victory, I feel. Against their main rival KU, they were competitive, with a 5 point loss.

So, yes, Snyder started "poorly" at KSU. Yes, SD started poorly at Cal. Don't stop there though. After that first bad season, did Synder give Wildcat fans some hope or reason to believe that a turnaround could be in the works? Sure, with a historic win (2+ year drought) and the D's noticeable improvement. Similarly, what did SD give Cal to embrace after the first season?

Lou Holtz was brought-up with respect to the Gamecocks. He was a proven winner before this position of course, so less of a reason to be as critical as he was a proven commodity. We can still apply the same though. Indeed a terrible season to start things off (0-11). The year before, just one win (1-10). So, from that perspective, a step back with the hire. That one win before Lou was against an equally terrible non-conference Ball State team. Terrible before Lou also... A quick look shows that the 1998 South Carolina team yielded 30 ppg. In Lou's first year, down to 25 ppg. That's the nugget that would give the fanbase something to feel optimistic about. Again, with Holtz, there's the history also...

Last one, as this is a bit tiresome...

I did this one elsewhere, in another thread, but I see it brought-up again here. WASU, under Leach. Copy/paste:

They got 3 wins his first year. They closed-out the season on a high note beating ranked UW, their "cross-town" rival. Us? The biggest beatdown in BG history to contemplate for 9 months...

Also, for WASU in 2012:

#17 UCLA (lost by 8)
#19 Stanford (lost by 7)
#13 Oregon ST (lost by 13)

Pretty damn competitive against some tough competition. Sure there were blow-outs too. It was a hard transition. Three wins compared to our one and several competitive games against ranked teams is much more than we can say in our first year.

This is the Cougs mind you, not a team laden with top recruits...
++++++

If we look hard enough, maybe we'll find an example where a first year coach bombed, with zero evidence of improvement / hope in that first year, then made the program into something special. It's quite clear though that history reveals that good coaches show something for which to give some hope. Heck, even if there's nothing discernable positive, that things didn't get worse, might provide sufficient reason to stay pat and not grab the pitchforks. When the new hire actually makes things worse with respect to wins, offensive and defensive production, and does so at a historic levels even, what HC's then proceeded to greatness?

Just saw muddlehead1's post above. Thanks for doing that! That post:

2008 Udub 0-12 Ty Willingham - Sark next year
2009 WSU 1-11 Wulff - 2 wins next year - 4 wins next year - Leach next year
2006 Furd 1-11 Harris - Harball next year
1995 OSU Beavs 1-10 Pettibone - 2 wins next year - fired
2003 Ariz 2-10 Mackovic - Stoops next year
2012 Colorado 1-11 Embree - Mccintyre this year

Forgot about Stoops. He improved wins his first year and made them more competitive too. In all of these, the same theme...

As stated earlier, good hires make a difference early. When that difference is identified, there's reason to believe the hire will bear fruit over time. If there is no such indication, then there is uncertainty after just one season. And if the opposite happens, things get worse, that is clearly a red flag, and reason for concern...

The discussion is interesting even if there is ZERO correlation between the cited positive examples and our future under SD.

I'd go out on a limb and say that Bill Snyder might be the greatest coach in the history of college football. Kansas State was deplorable. I believe the guy he replaced, Stan Parrish won two games in three years and the team had at least four decades of substantial losses prior to that. Snyder's record was and is phenomenal in light of the situation. Proof further was his retirement and K-State slipping to below .500 for those three years from 2006-8. He comes back and they win again. Walsh is another almost incomparable coaching figure. If SD can come anywhere close to these legends, then we are truly blessed. But the fact that they were extraordinary is completely irrelevant to us.

OTOH, and equally irrelevant to Cal, you can name a number of coaches in the last few decades that started badly, continued badly and ended badly. Guys like Terry Shea at Rutgers, Watson Brown and Rod Dowhower at Vandy. Dowhower lasted only two years.

Duke has a string of bad coaches like Carl Frank and Ted Roof, guys that barely averaged more than 1 win a season in their tenures. Paul Wulff of Wazzu had three FBS wins in his three seasons. They never got better. Joe Avezzano, Ore State, had two conference wins in five years. Mike Locksley of New Mexico, Rick Venturi of Northwestern and Stan Parrish, from K-State were coaches that didn't even get more than 2 wins in their tenure. I am also not suggesting that SD is in this category either.

The reality is that SD will get his chance, we all know that. We all hope that he is successful. That being said, I don't fault those BI posters here who have pointed out the things they have seen this year that give them great concern about whether we can be successful. I am in that category as well. It has been the worst season on the field ever and one of the worst off the field, with an abundance of negative news and piling on.

I don't look at the history of great or bad coaches because it simply doesn't matter. We have to evaluate SD, the assistants and the system. There are enough early warning signs to cause concern for our future. Hopefully he can rectify these quickly, but for next year our hand of cards is pretty well known in terms of personnel, save for a miraculous JC recruiting haul and return of our injured players, and so the staff will have to "coach up" this team significantly better than this season. The excuse of we didn't prepare them well enough has to end. Further, SD needs to be careful in setting public expectations about W-L for 2014. Much of the disappointment this year was due to what we now know as unrealistic expectations for a really young team transitioning into a new system.

Cal89;842232923 said:

---

I see the intent of this thread, and I like it. We want to able to say - see that guy (who is a great, recognized coach), started poorly too. And by that, giving us some reason for hope that SD also can turn things around, and might even become a fixture in Cal history. As Cal fans, we all want to see some light. After such a dismal season, and last few years in general, we can certainly use something that gives us reason for hope...

Having looked into such instances, if we truly want to find correlation, there is often evidence that the hire was a good one in that poor first year.

If we simply want a feel good story, then don't look further into such occurrences (good / great coaches with poor first seasons).

Bill Snyder was brought-up, at least once here. Indeed, started 1-10. He's a legend of sorts now at K State. Wow, SD also won just one game. Ok, with that some will choose to feel some hope that SD can do the same at Cal. Ok, I want that hope too, but I truly want it to be well-found and not just something to dull the pain...

In 1988, the year before Bill Snyder's first year, KSU was winless. Not just winless, but dating back to mid-season, 1986! In his first year (1989), they won a game. Just one game, but after going winless for so long, that's better than a stick in the eye. Snyder's teams are known for stingy D's. The year before his arrival, the Wildcats gave-up 41 ppg. In his first year - 32. Wow. Very notable evidence that this guy was making a difference, more so than the 1 victory, I feel. Against their main rival KU, they were competitive, with a 5 point loss.

So, yes, Snyder started "poorly" at KSU. Yes, SD started poorly at Cal. Don't stop there though. After that first bad season, did Synder give Wildcat fans some hope or reason to believe that a turnaround could be in the works? Sure, with a historic win (2+ year drought) and the D's noticeable improvement. Similarly, what did SD give Cal to embrace after the first season?

Lou Holtz was brought-up with respect to the Gamecocks. He was a proven winner before this position of course, so less of a reason to be as critical as he was a proven commodity. We can still apply the same though. Indeed a terrible season to start things off (0-11). The year before, just one win (1-10). So, from that perspective, a step back with the hire. That one win before Lou was against an equally terrible non-conference Ball State team. Terrible before Lou also... A quick look shows that the 1998 South Carolina team yielded 30 ppg. In Lou's first year, down to 25 ppg. That's the nugget that would give the fanbase something to feel optimistic about. Again, with Holtz, there's the history also...

Last one, as this is a bit tiresome...

I did this one elsewhere, in another thread, but I see it brought-up again here. WASU, under Leach. Copy/paste:

They got 3 wins his first year. They closed-out the season on a high note beating ranked UW, their "cross-town" rival. Us? The biggest beatdown in BG history to contemplate for 9 months...

Also, for WASU in 2012:

#17 UCLA (lost by 8)
#19 Stanford (lost by 7)
#13 Oregon ST (lost by 13)

Pretty damn competitive against some tough competition. Sure there were blow-outs too. It was a hard transition. Three wins compared to our one and several competitive games against ranked teams is much more than we can say in our first year.

This is the Cougs mind you, not a team laden with top recruits...
++++++

If we look hard enough, maybe we'll find an example where a first year coach bombed, with zero evidence of improvement / hope in that first year, then made the program into something special. It's quite clear though that history reveals that good coaches show something for which to give some hope. Heck, even if there's nothing discernable positive, that things didn't get worse, might provide sufficient reason to stay pat and not grab the pitchforks. When the new hire actually makes things worse with respect to wins, offensive and defensive production, and does so at a historic levels even, what HC's then proceeded to greatness?

Just saw muddlehead1's post above. Thanks for doing that! That post:

2008 Udub 0-12 Ty Willingham - Sark next year
2009 WSU 1-11 Wulff - 2 wins next year - 4 wins next year - Leach next year
2006 Furd 1-11 Harris - Harball next year
1995 OSU Beavs 1-10 Pettibone - 2 wins next year - fired
2003 Ariz 2-10 Mackovic - Stoops next year
2012 Colorado 1-11 Embree - Mccintyre this year

Forgot about Stoops. He improved wins his first year and made them more competitive too. In all of these, the same theme...

As stated earlier, good hires make a difference early. When that difference is identified, there's reason to believe the hire will bear fruit over time. If there is no such indication, then there is uncertainty after just one season. And if the opposite happens, things get worse, that is clearly a red flag, and reason for concern...

---

I'm in this camp. I realize that some great coaches started horribly but as the evidence is showing (thanks to posters like yourself) there was something in that first year that gave the fan base hope. I can't think of one thing about this year that gives us hope. NOT ONE THING. And I can't think of any team I've followed where the first year was this bad but then the coach survived and thrived. People are bringing up Bill Walsh's first year with the 49ers. That team was better than the year before. You certainly couldn't say that Walsh was going to be a great coach after that first year but it was quite apparent that they were better than the year before. We can't say that about this Bear team. I just don't have anything to hang my hat on so I am anticipating the obvious and most historically proven reason: the coaches are not up to the task. I hope I'm wrong not because I have any great connection with Sonny but because if I'm wrong it will quicken the time to having a good Cal football team to root for again. If I'm right we have to sit through one or more numbing seasons and then go through this entire process again. And as history has shown it is very hard to hire a good/great football coach.

Thanks again Cal89 for a great post.

82gradDLSdad;842232963 said:

---

I'm in this camp. I realize that some great coaches started horribly but as the evidence is showing (thanks to posters like yourself) there was something in that first year that gave the fan base hope. I can't think of one thing about this year that gives us hope. NOT ONE THING. And I can't think of any team I've followed where the first year was this bad but then the coach survived and thrived. People are bringing up Bill Walsh's first year with the 49ers. That team was better than the year before. You certainly couldn't say that Walsh was going to be a great coach after that first year but it was quite apparent that they were better than the year before. We can't say that about this Bear team. I just don't have anything to hang my hat on so I am anticipating the obvious and most historically proven reason: the coaches are not up to the task. I hope I'm wrong not because I have any great connection with Sonny but because if I'm wrong it will quicken the time to having a good Cal football team to root for again. If I'm right we have to sit through one or more numbing seasons and then go through this entire process again. And as history has shown it is very hard to hire a good/great football coach.

Thanks again Cal89 for a great post.

---

82gradDLSdad, thank you. I seriously started this inquiry, looking to find examples. I've come to the conclusion, that if such exists, it is by the far the exception...

Hey, for those who don't know - Cal hoops in Maui (ESPN2)!

I think I read somewhere Snyder at KState relied heavily on JC transfers which our Bears, it seems, try to avoid. (Rodgers and Arrington were fairly good JC transfers, however, you might say). I watched Butte College destroy Santa Rosa JC this year. I'll take the Butte QB and their number one running back and the SRJC running back / kick returner on our team any time.

Someone should also look up the inverse, how many 0,1, or 2 wind coaches in first year fail to improve in year 2 and 3... Like the Buffs last coach or Big Weis

Look, I can be as optimistic as anyone and hope that Dykes really did inherit a bad situation, and that if he has the talent, he'll turn it around and become a great coach. But, a lot will hinge on next season. He has to get at least a few wins, and avoid getting blown out to non-ranked teams.

Despite what a lot of folks have posted, I don't think the program sustains real damage if Cal Football has a bad 2014, even if the team goes 1-11 again or even 0-12. Football programs can make bad hires. Teams can suck for a couple years. It happens. The difference is not tolerating failure after the coach has been given a chance to show what he can do.

Winning programs fire the new guy after his 2nd abysmal season, or perhaps give him a 3rd chance if his team has shown significant growth and potential outside of the win-loss column. They don't keep him around for years and years hoping that "next year" will be the big one. I understand keeping Gilbertson for a couple more seasons after the Alamo Bowl season in 1993, but Holmoe should have been gone after 1999 at the latest. And yet we kept Roger Theder and Joe Kapp around for years when they clearly were not getting results on the field.

Bottom line, if Dykes has a similar season in 2014, he should be fired as soon as the season ends. His coaching would be a temporary setback for the program, but not fatal. If he's still here in 2016 or 2017, and the Bears haven't played in a bowl game since the Tedford years, then we've got a major problem.

1. Marv Levy
1960 2-7-1
1961 1-8-1
1962 1-9
then lost a bunch of SuperBowls

2. Ray Willsey
3-7 in 1964 and 1966, only losing seasons in 8 years as Cal's head coach.

3. Mike White
3-8 in 1972, then 7-3-1 in 1974 and co-pac10 champions with an 8-3 record in 1975.

4. Bruce Snyder
3-6-2 in 1987, then 7-4-1 in 1990, and 10-2 in 1991.

RichyBear;842233250 said:

---

1. Marv Levy
1960 2-7-1
1961 1-8-1
1962 1-9
then lost a bunch of SuperBowls

2. Ray Willsey
3-7 in 1964 and 1966, only losing seasons in 8 years as Cal's head coach.

3. Mike White
3-8 in 1972, then 7-3-1 in 1974 and co-pac10 champions with an 8-3 record in 1975.

4. Bruce Snyder
3-6-2 in 1987, then 7-4-1 in 1990, and 10-2 in 1991.

---

1. 1959 - 2-8
1. 1960 - 2-7
Verdict: Held steady in 1st year.

2. 1963 - 4-5
2. 1964 - 3-7
Verdict: Performed worse in first year

3. 1971 - 6-5
3. 1972 - 3-8
Verdict: Performed worse in first year

4. 1986 - 2-9
4. 1987 - 3-6-2
Verdict: Improved on first year

Added context which I think it more helpful as it pertains to evaluating Sonny.

I don't believe any of these guys were bounced after a single season and I don't believe anyone expects to see Dykes fired on the basis of his one abysmal season.

But Pete's 3rd year at Cal we were back to 2-9. For that matter, his Rose Bowl team in the middle was a pretty pedestrian outfit (7-4), winning in a PCC that had only 3 teams with winning records.

This is from an FCS school, but still another good example. Coach was Henry Frazier III at Prairie View A&M:

2004: 3-8
2005: 5-6
2006: 3-8
2007: 7-3
2008: 9-1
2009: 9-1
2010: 7-4

What makes his record remarkable is he took over an 11 win team, as in a total of 11 wins in the preceding 14 seasons. From 1989 through 2003 Prairie View had a record of 11-138 for a winning percentage of 0.07. This includes an NCAA record 80 game losing streak.

So yes, things could be MUCH worse for us.