Russia just gave Ukraine an ultimatum to evacuate all their forces from the Crimean peninsula, after sending their troops in last week.

I wonder if Putin is serious about the military action, and if so, how the world will react.

Sounds scary. I think this is a job for General Clancy Pendergast.

MiZery;842288579 said:

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I wonder if Putin is serious about the military action, and if so, how the world will react.

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World to Putin: "Please Don"

Puntin's strategy sure looks familiar. I can't put my finger on it though. Anyone?

MiZery;842288579 said:

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Russia just gave Ukraine an ultimatum to evacuate all their forces from the Crimean peninsula, after sending their troops in last week.

I wonder if Putin is serious about the military action, and if so, how the world will react.

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Mizery- Are you curious about the world or how we will react? I think Putin already knows our response. He is a bully who needs to be hit in the mouth.

calbb;842288587 said:

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Mizery- Are you curious about the world or how we will react? I think Putin already knows our response. He is a bully who needs to be hit in the mouth.

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The US wont do aything - there is no US interest in Crimea ... NATO on the other hand...

MiZery;842288588 said:

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The US wont do aything - there is no US interest in Crimea ... NATO on the other hand...

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I doubt anyone does anything. The Europeans need the natural gas that flows through Ukraine. There will be foot stomping and veiled threats like Putin really cares about not attending the G8 meeting. NATO won't go to war over the Crimea

No doubt this potent body will talk the Russians into surrender.:sarc:

If not President Carter, I mean Obama, will take strong action.

anyone read the Tom Clancy series novel "Command Authority", this sounds exactly like a plot from that book.

wifeisafurd;842288593 said:

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No doubt this potent body will talk the Russians into surrender.:sarc:

If not President Carter, I mean Obama, will take strong action.

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Nice cheap shot on the President. But what would you have him do? Anything differently from what tough guy George Bush did when Russia invaded Georgia?

I think it's a shame when some people will put domestic politics over any matter of international crisis.

beeasyed;842288596 said:

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anyone read the Tom Clancy series novel "Command Authority", this sounds exactly like a plot from that book.

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Just got it from the library, read the inside cover and immediately noticed the similarities. Kind of makes the "concussion war" here seem even sillier since real concussion grenades (and worse) are being used in Putin's War to redo the Russian empire. Czar Putin at work.

Russia has already declared WAR on Ukraine and claim the right to further invade Ukraine because some people speak Russian.
Can we invade Russia to "rescue" Snowden? :p

Yucko, the cowardly ex-leader of Ukraine, stole $70 BILLION from Ukraine.
If the International Banks had balls, brains and ethics (ethical bankers: extreme oxymoron), they'd recapture that money and return it to Ukraine.
Russia only "promised" to LEND $15billion to Ukraine but only provided $3billion.
As Russia only loaned the money to Ukraine, they can easily force Ukraine into bankruptcy and own the country. So, why did they invade?
Because it's there and Putin is pissed because he didn't get his hockey gold medal (or any medal) so he's taking Ukraine as his prize.

How many billions did Facebook pay to get Whatsapp?
They could have bought an entire country for half the amount.

GB54;842288591 said:

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I doubt anyone does anything. The Europeans need the natural gas that flows through Ukraine. There will be foot stomping and veiled threats like Putin really cares about not attending the G8 meeting. NATO won't go to war over the Crimea

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Some very smart people (fellow folks from my grad program) have drawn the comparison to the strategy that usurpers follow in a coup. Putin has created "facts on the ground" in much of Crimea, forcing a weak and still uncertain government in Keiv to be the one that chooses whether or not to use force (in a situation in which they are clearly the underdog).

Interestingly, I would think that Putin may have overplayed hand. The response by the West will be to put financial pressure on the oligarchs (frozen assets, no more shopping trips to Paris) and that isn't going to be good for Vlad. The smart play is to not be threatening military (urge Ukraine restraint, no NATO membership) but to put pressure on the elites.

The heavyweight boxing champion of the world is responsible for this mess.

MiZery;842288579 said:

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Russia just gave Ukraine an ultimatum to evacuate all their forces from the Crimean peninsula, after sending their troops in last week.
I wonder if Putin is serious about the military action, and if so, how the world will react.

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...in Sebastapol. The Crimea (on the Black Sea) is it's access to the Mediterranean and the "home" of their Black Sea fleet. This is old business.

They demonstrated their aggressive stance in 2008 when they invaded Georgia in order to preserve its occupation of the Russian military base near Tbilisi even though the occupation agreement with the Georgians had timed out. They used as an excuse "Georgian" hostilities in the north Caucasus provinces as a reason to invade and protect pro-Russian peoples who wanted to break away from Georgia.

BTW--President Bush-II, who had visited Tbilisi in 2005 and promised full support to the Georgians, sat by idly dithering.

They crushed the Georgian Army just short of entering Tbilisi, and sunk it's Navy on the Black Sea.

Any chances we will lose any recruits from the Ukraine if war occurs. I was hoping we would land that great kicker that is able to kick 90 yard field goals.

dajo9;842288602 said:

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Nice cheap shot on the President. But what would you have him do? Anything differently from what tough guy George Bush did when Russia invaded Georgia?

I think it's a shame when some people will put domestic politics over any matter of international crisis.

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[SIZE="3"]"Mission Accomplished Beotches!"[/SIZE]


[SIZE="3"]"Mr. W, I greatly admire your sexy cod piece. How about you help me soap up my horse. Then we start war!"[/SIZE]

dajo9;842288602 said:

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But what would you have him do? Anything differently from what tough guy George Bush did when Russia invaded Georgia?

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Sadly, I don't think there is much the US or NATO can do. There is a large distance between the Crimea and the bulk of their forces. Bombers? Bombing or any bullets headed at Russians troops could escalate into using nukes (maybe). They have a ship load of nukes aimed at us and that makes them different from Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. And the Russian have a history of being sensitive about their best warm water port.

Sad to say, but the easy option could be the best. Let them invade and get tied up in a prolonged occupation. It could sap their strength in the same way Iraq and Afghanistan have sapped the US's. The Ukraine is a lot of territory to have to occupy.

edg64;842288610 said:

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The heavyweight boxing champion of the world is responsible for this mess.

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I blame Buh.

Invade Iraq.

running bear;842288624 said:

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Sadly, I don't think there is much the US or NATO can do. There is a large distance between the Crimea and the bulk of their forces. Bombers? Bombing or any bullets headed at Russians troops could escalate into using nukes (maybe). They have a ship load of nukes aimed at us and that makes them different from Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. And the Russian have a history of being sensitive about their best warm water port.

Sad to say, but the easy option could be the best. Let them invade and get tied up in a prolonged occupation. It could sap their strength in the same way Iraq and Afghanistan have sapped the US's. The Ukraine is a lot of territory to have to occupy.

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A Russian invasion of Ukraine won't tie them up like a foreign occupation. Ukraine was part of Russia for over 300 years. This is like if Texas seceded and then 20 years later the US invaded the Houston area. We wouldn't care what the Russians or the Europeans said about it.

Our best option is to broker a deal that splits Ukraine from Crimea and try to preserve Ukraine indepedence for the remaining portion. Sadly, domestic politics would make that very diffcult for the President because people would say it was Neville Chamberlain-esque. Therefore, we will have to pay lip-service on behalf of the whole Ukraine, and will most likely lose all of it to Russia. But the way it appears to me, most Crimeans would rather be part of Russia than a western-styled Ukraine. Fine - time to part ways.

oskihasahearton;842288611 said:

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...in Sebastapol. The Crimea (on the Black Sea) is it's access to the Mediterranean and the "home" of their Black Sea fleet. This is old business. ...

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Actually, it's fairly recent business. Yucko, the cowardly ex-leader of Ukraine, a Putin Puppet, renewed the agreement for the Russian use of part of Crimea for their fleet (and I wonder how much money went into Yucko's Swiss accounts for that deal).

Russia want it all ... Czar Putin trying to recreate the Russian empire. He proclaimed that the dissolution of the USSR was the biggest disaster of the last century.

Putin's Puppet runs and Putin moves in. Yucko may disappear into a Moscow KGB prison (Putin knows where it is) or, if he's lucky, he'll get a bullet in the back of his skull and disappear into a Siberian hole in the ground.

Here is the problem as I see it.

The Crimea is predominantly Russian-speaking people. They, the majority, think of themselves as Russians. Crimea belongs to the Ukraine because Khrushchev in 1955 gave the island to the Ukraine. It is where Khrushchev was from, but it made no difference since it was all part of the USSR. The bigger issue is whether Putin can leverage taking the Crimea to regaining the Ukraine as a Russian region. The Ukrainians according to newspaper accounts have a very poor imitation of an army and use old fighters from the 1970's to protect the country. They are no threat to the Russians who could easily run them over and incorporate the region as it was during the Soviet days. The eastern portion of the Ukraine is very pro-Russian and Putin could use the same excuse Hitler used to overrun Czechoslovakia and neighboring areas - to protect the Russian minority. It seems very likely that he would use that excuse.

The next big issue is whether Putin after regaining the Ukraine sees an opportunity to also overrun Belarus! It also was a part of the old Soviet Union and stands as the buffer between Moscow and the west, in particular, Poland. He could pose a threat to the West should he seek his "manifest destiny." If this happens, will he also incorporate Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia? In effect, re-establish the Eastern Bloc and challenge the West economically as well as militarily.

Perhaps, Putin, a member of the Secret Police in the old days would like to re-establish Russian might. On his eastern front, he must confront a growing problem with China. It is less and less a Third World Country and more and more a major power on the same tier as the U.S., Europe and Japan. It's hard to know what the ruling group in Moscow is thinking, but this is one theory.

The only downside to regaining the Ukraine. Putin also inherits Chernobyl.

6bear6;842288639 said:

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Here is the problem as I see it.

The Crimea is predominantly Russian-speaking people. They, the majority, think of themselves as Russians. Crimea belongs to the Ukraine because Khrushchev in 1955 gave the island to the Ukraine. It is where Khrushchev was from, but it made no difference since it was all part of the USSR. The bigger issue is whether Putin can leverage taking the Crimea to regaining the Ukraine as a Russian region. The Ukrainians according to newspaper accounts have a very poor imitation of an army and use old fighters from the 1970's to protect the country. They are no threat to the Russians who could easily run them over and incorporate the region as it was during the Soviet days. The eastern portion of the Ukraine is very pro-Russian and Putin could use the same excuse Hitler used to overrun Czechoslovakia and neighboring areas - to protect the Russian minority. It seems very likely that he would use that excuse.

The next big issue is whether Putin after regaining the Ukraine sees an opportunity to also overrun Belarus! It also was a part of the old Soviet Union and stands as the buffer between Moscow and the west, in particular, Poland. He could pose a threat to the West should he seek his "manifest destiny." If this happens, will he also incorporate Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia? In effect, re-establish the Eastern Bloc and challenge the West economically as well as militarily.

Perhaps, Putin, a member of the Secret Police in the old days would like to re-establish Russian might. On his eastern front, he must confront a growing problem with China. It is less and less a Third World Country and more and more a major power on the same tier as the U.S., Europe and Japan. It's hard to know what the ruling group in Moscow is thinking, but this is one theory.

The only downside to regaining the Ukraine. Putin also inherits Chernobyl.

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Don't forget Moldova. I wish I had a nickel for every time somebody conquered Moldova.

dajo9;842288602 said:

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Nice cheap shot on the President. But what would you have him do? Anything differently from what tough guy George Bush did when Russia invaded Georgia?

I think it's a shame when some people will put domestic politics over any matter of international crisis.

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Both the UN and Obama are accusing Russia of violating international law and threatening Russia with "significant" consequences. Lot threats and lines in the snow. I think the Russians already have heard that rhetoric used in other hot spots and know there will no consequences.

You made my point, exactly what can the UN or US do that matters once they invade towards Kiev? Or beyond to other countries in their sphere of influence? Nothing.

Not sure where the comment about domestic politics come from. You do realize I voted for Obama?

Edit: it won't be much of a war. Russians wipe Ukrain's butts and keep going.

6bear6;842288639 said:

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Here is the problem as I see it.

The Crimea is predominantly Russian-speaking people. They, the majority, think of themselves as Russians. Crimea belongs to the Ukraine because Khrushchev in 1955 gave the island to the Ukraine....

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On the Black Sea.

6bear6;842288639 said:

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Here is the problem as I see it.

The Crimea is predominantly Russian-speaking people. They, the majority, think of themselves as Russians. Crimea belongs to the Ukraine because Khrushchev in 1955 gave the island to the Ukraine. It is where Khrushchev was from, but it made no difference since it was all part of the USSR. The bigger issue is whether Putin can leverage taking the Crimea to regaining the Ukraine as a Russian region. The Ukrainians according to newspaper accounts have a very poor imitation of an army and use old fighters from the 1970's to protect the country. They are no threat to the Russians who could easily run them over and incorporate the region as it was during the Soviet days. The eastern portion of the Ukraine is very pro-Russian and Putin could use the same excuse Hitler used to overrun Czechoslovakia and neighboring areas - to protect the Russian minority. It seems very likely that he would use that excuse.

The next big issue is whether Putin after regaining the Ukraine sees an opportunity to also overrun Belarus! It also was a part of the old Soviet Union and stands as the buffer between Moscow and the west, in particular, Poland. He could pose a threat to the West should he seek his "manifest destiny." If this happens, will he also incorporate Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia? In effect, re-establish the Eastern Bloc and challenge the West economically as well as militarily.

Perhaps, Putin, a member of the Secret Police in the old days would like to re-establish Russian might. On his eastern front, he must confront a growing problem with China. It is less and less a Third World Country and more and more a major power on the same tier as the U.S., Europe and Japan. It's hard to know what the ruling group in Moscow is thinking, but this is one theory.

The only downside to regaining the Ukraine. Putin also inherits Chernobyl.

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great post. i think that this scenario is what much of europe and the US fear. the thing is that i also think that you are right and that this is exactly what Putin is after. he wants to have Russia be an economic and military power again and my feeling is that he will stop at nothing until he has achieved that.

wifeisafurd;842288649 said:

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Both the UN and Obama are accusing Russia of violating international law and threatening Russia with "significant" consequences. Lot threats and lines in the snow. I think the Russians already have heard that rhetoric used in other hot spots and know there will no consequences.

You made my point, exactly what can the UN or US do that matters once they invade towards Kiev? Or beyond to other countries in their sphere of influence? Nothing.

Not sure where the comment about domestic politics come from. You do realize I voted for Obama?

Edit: it won't be much of a war. Russians wipe Ukrain's butts and keep going.

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wifeisafurd;842288649 said:

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If not President Carter, I mean Obama, will take strong action.

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So, why affiliate Obama with Carter who is widely regarded as a weak foreign policy president if not trying to take shots at Obama for being weak? The Ukraine crisis doesn't show Obama is weak. It shows that our hand in this particular matter is weak. So why the cheap shot on the President other than domestic politics?

Nice try.

dajo9;842288665 said:

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So, why affiliate Obama with Carter who is widely regarded as a weak foreign policy president if not trying to take shots at Obama for being weak? The Ukraine crisis doesn't show Obama is weak. It shows that our hand in this particular matter is weak. So why the cheap shot on the President other than domestic politics?

Nice try.

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hes the president. taking shots is part of the job description. i think what will be telling of Obama is how well he rallies opposition to what Putin does because as 6bear6 is pointing out, the logical next step for Putin is continued advancement. Obama has to rally the west against this because Putin has to feel threatened that if he does take that step past Ukraine, that there are going to be some actual consequences. We dont care about Ukraine, but we do care about the other countries that he'll want to take over because if he does so, then he will start to pose an actual threat to our allies in Europe. Our allies have to see this and nip it at Ukraine. if they show too much weakness in taking action, we'll be in pre WWII time all over again in not taking the steps to check a growing power

dajo9;842288665 said:

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So, why affiliate Obama with Carter who is widely regarded as a weak foreign policy president if not trying to take shots at Obama for being weak? The Ukraine crisis doesn't show Obama is weak. It shows that our hand in this particular matter is weak. So why the cheap shot on the President other than domestic politics?

Nice try.

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Wait..what? Dajo, you take cheap shots at the other side of the aisle or FOX news all the time for no reason at all along with several other guys.and you're up in arms about what WIAF wrote?. It would be nice if most of you guys stopped your political whining IMO....(pet peeve rant off/)

With that said, I'd love to give Crimea back to Russia and call it a day...but Putin says he is protecting Russian's on the island...hell, Poland and other places have tons of Russians living there....is Putin gonna end up in those countries to protect them too?... Putin may be fighting in the 19th century still but maybe we have to get down to the level too...(no, not saying troops or war...but some economic/blockade stuff)...too bad the Euros import so much natural gas from them

6bear6;842288639 said:

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Here is the problem as I see it.

The Crimea is predominantly Russian-speaking people. They, the majority, think of themselves as Russians.

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It's important to note that Russians are predominant, but not an overwhelming majority. Crimea is also some 25% Ukrainian and 12% Tartar, both of which are vehemently opposed to Russian occupation.

gobears725;842288656 said:

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great post. i think that this scenario is what much of europe and the US fear. the thing is that i also think that you are right and that this is exactly what Putin is after. he wants to have Russia be an economic and military power again and my feeling is that he will stop at nothing until he has achieved that.

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Putin's instincts are all wrong. Not sure what Russia has to gain, in the long run. If he can get a portion of Ukraine to vote to be a part of Russia, that's one thing. Otherwise, he's just isolating Russia from other parts of the world. (And deep in Asia, I'm sure China isn't digging this.)

Maybe that's his goal: He feels he can't compete with the West, so he's turning inward.

It's 2014, folks. What flies can he attract with this vinegar?

"all out war" geez. Hyperbole much?

gobears725;842288670 said:

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hes the president. taking shots is part of the job description. i think what will be telling of Obama is how well he rallies opposition to what Putin does because as 6bear6 is pointing out, the logical next step for Putin is continued advancement. Obama has to rally the west against this because Putin has to feel threatened that if he does take that step past Ukraine, that there are going to be some actual consequences. We dont care about Ukraine, but we do care about the other countries that he'll want to take over because if he does so, then he will start to pose an actual threat to our allies in Europe. Our allies have to see this and nip it at Ukraine. if they show too much weakness in taking action, we'll be in pre WWII time all over again in not taking the steps to check a growing power

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The Europeans can't even agree on symbolic sanctions-vetoed by France and Germany. They want to heat their homes. I don't have any faith that any meaningful action will come out of Europe.

Big C_Cal;842288681 said:

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Putin's instincts are all wrong. Not sure what Russia has to gain, in the long run. If he can get a portion of Ukraine to vote to be a part of Russia, that's one thing. Otherwise, he's just isolating Russia from other parts of the world. (And deep in Asia, I'm sure China isn't digging this.)

Maybe that's his goal: He feels he can't compete with the West, so he's turning inward.

It's 2014, folks. What flies can he attract with this vinegar?

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Putin wants to consolidate and expand Russian power. He has said that the breakup of the USSR was a disaster .

GB54;842288685 said:

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The Europeans can't even agree on symbolic sanctions-vetoed by France and Germany. They want to heat their homes. I don't have any faith that any meaningful action will come out of Europe.

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they may end up being in deep sh#t 10-15 years down the line then.