You must have read this article. Sonny shares your optimism.

http://www.ibabuzz.com/beartalk/2014/08/20/football-sonny-dykes-pleased-as-bears-scrimmage-for-final-time-before-season-opener-at-northwestern/

CalBear04;842345204 said:

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I'm a realist bear friends. I've endured the ups and downs. I've lived the #2 national ranking and subsequent downfall. I've seen our rosebowl snatched away by the evil mack brown.

Now I've endured 5 years of terrible Cal football. Our Penderghast Defenses were the only thing exciting.
Everything I'm reading and seeing leads me to think this team may be competitive for the first time in a long time. Our offense can likely move the ball and score a lot of points. Our defense will wear down but if it can be opportunistic enough we may be able to pull away from some teams.

Am i Crazy?? Buh was clearly a terrible coach and many felt that way before the season started. Kaufman appears a much better hire and could make our defense competitive. Dykes made a lot of improvement on offense last season but injuries and youth held us back in the red zone.

IF we can score TDs instead FGs, that would be HUGE in being competitive. If our Defense can at least stop teams half the time, and not give up easy first quarter TDs, we will be in more games.

Am I crazy? Could we see an exciting team this year even if we lose a bunch of high scoring affairs?

Without hating, tell me why we will be as bad as last year?

Youth? We got a lot of PT and lost very few players.
Talent? I think we are on par with most of the Pac-12
Depth? Light at some positions but strong at many of the most important (remember 2010 when we had no good healthy receivers by the end of the year?)
Coaching? Kaufman and Dykes have had a lot of success different places. Last year could have been a fluke.
Culture? Winning is a mindset. This is probably the biggest reason in my mind why we may fold and this all comes from the coaches/leadership
Toughness? Everything I've red and seen suggests we are stronger and in better shape then last year.

What do you got? Clear, concise, thoughtful reasons why we can't compete?

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82gradDLSdad;842345356 said:

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You must have read this article. Sonny shares your optimism.

http://www.ibabuzz.com/beartalk/2014/08/20/football-sonny-dykes-pleased-as-bears-scrimmage-for-final-time-before-season-opener-at-northwestern/

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This is great to see. Not that it matters that much, but I didn't want to hear pre-emptive excuses about injuries, inexperience, and talent before we even played one game. It's good to hear this. Expect success and don't apologize for communicating it!

KoreAmBear;842345376 said:

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This is great to see. Not that it matters that much, but I didn't want to hear pre-emptive excuses about injuries, inexperience, and talent before we even played one game. It's good to hear this. Expect success and don't apologize for communicating it!

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i think last year's effect on the team is like a player suffering a major injury. rehabbing that injury through the off-season (training, conditioning) is just the physical side of things; more importantly, the team needs to get its confidence back post-recovery. some players you see are hesitant to cut hard or plant their feet after coming back for the first time even though they are medically cleared.

we gotta get over the mental hump, and i think Sonny's comments should help. definitely doesn't do us any good this season to stay on the "so many injuries" and "too inexperienced" explanations.

beeasyed;842345385 said:

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i think last year's effect on the team is like a player suffering a major injury. rehabbing that injury through the off-season (training, conditioning) is just the physical side of things; more importantly, the team needs to get its confidence back post-recovery. some players you see are hesitant to cut hard or plant their feet after coming back for the first time even though they are medically cleared.

we gotta get over the mental hump, and i think Sonny's comments should help. definitely doesn't do us any good this season to stay on the "so many injuries" and "too inexperienced" explanations.

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Yup. I saw this specifically with Brendan Bigelow. When he first got to Cal, he had just been rehabbing his knee, so he played scared and would just get blown up big time. Then he got confident in 2012 and finally played like he should. The game at Columbus was Exhibit A of what he was capable of doing. Then he had his injury again after the 2012 season; by 2013, he was back to pre-2012 in my opinion. His hesitations and fear of more injury completely cancelled out his world class speed.

KoreAmBear;842345395 said:

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Yup. I saw this specifically with Brendan Bigelow. When he first got to Cal, he had just been rehabbing his knee, so he played scared and would just get blown up big time. Then he got confident in 2012 and finally played like he should. Then he had his injury again, and by 2013, he was back to pre-2012 in my opinion. His hesitations and fear of more injury completely cancelled out his world class speed.

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that's exactly who i was thinking of when i posted that!

and knowing that the mental side of the game is a big part of recovery as well, i think i'm much more hesitant (read: negative) in believing players will come back as good as new.

Tartabull, Sine, Mcclure, Broussard...i hope they are the exceptions...

Don't forget Longshore. After his injury (which he tried to play through) he developed a tendency to throw off his back foot rather than to confidently plant and step up into the pocket.

Actually, you make a lot of sense. Last year, even with all our issues, this team could have been much better. If we had Kaufman instead of Buh, chances are we beat NW and UofA and WSU looks like a much different game (probably a couple others as well). The injuries would have killed us and the end of the season would have probably played out the same, but last season would have been a disappointment and not an end-to-end dumpster fire. And this year's team is healthier and more experienced, to go with the fact we have a DC who actually belongs there.

I know, it's Cal - we expect the worst. And all to often, we get it. But the team had a lot of positives on offense, even with a true frosh QB and a generally poor OL. It's not hard to see last season's FGs being this season's TD and many of last season's INTs being this season's incompletions or even completions. That's what you'd expect from a more experienced team. If the team does ONLY that - improves on offense by that much - there's two more wins and a toss-up against WSU right there.

On top of that, if Kaufman takes the worst defense in college football and has them play *just up* to their talent and potential, that's an average of 10 opponent points off the scoreboard right there - plus more TOP for our offense.

Again, not reason for wild optimism but certainly reason to think this team is capable of better than 2 wins and 10 blowout losses this season.

beeasyed;842345398 said:

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that's exactly who i was thinking of when i posted that!

and knowing that the mental side of the game is a big part of recovery as well, i think i'm much more hesitant (read: negative) in believing players will come back as good as new.

Tartabull, Sine, Mcclure, Broussard...i hope they are the exceptions...

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Well my hope is that these guys don't rely on the pure speed like Bigs did. And basically as a running back, you could be exposed to a huge hit to the knees (or any part of the body for that matter).

B.A. Bearacus;842345415 said:

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I lol'd.

Vandalus;842345432 said:

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I lol'd.

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I swear that was liverflukes one morning in Central Park.

Hahah. It will be me god willing whenever I get out to NYC to visit for the first time.

Vandalus;842345465 said:

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Hahah. It will be me god willing whenever I get out to NYC to visit for the first time.

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Don't worry, I'm experienced.

CalBear04;842345204 said:

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I'm a realist bear friends. I've endured the ups and downs. I've lived the #2 national ranking and subsequent downfall. I've seen our rosebowl snatched away by the evil mack brown.

Now I've endured 5 years of terrible Cal football. Our Penderghast Defenses were the only thing exciting.
Everything I'm reading and seeing leads me to think this team may be competitive for the first time in a long time. Our offense can likely move the ball and score a lot of points. Our defense will wear down but if it can be opportunistic enough we may be able to pull away from some teams.

Am i Crazy?? Buh was clearly a terrible coach and many felt that way before the season started. Kaufman appears a much better hire and could make our defense competitive. Dykes made a lot of improvement on offense last season but injuries and youth held us back in the red zone.

IF we can score TDs instead FGs, that would be HUGE in being competitive. If our Defense can at least stop teams half the time, and not give up easy first quarter TDs, we will be in more games.

Am I crazy? Could we see an exciting team this year even if we lose a bunch of high scoring affairs?

Without hating, tell me why we will be as bad as last year?

Youth? We got a lot of PT and lost very few players.
Talent? I think we are on par with most of the Pac-12
Depth? Light at some positions but strong at many of the most important (remember 2010 when we had no good healthy receivers by the end of the year?)
Coaching? Kaufman and Dykes have had a lot of success different places. Last year could have been a fluke.
Culture? Winning is a mindset. This is probably the biggest reason in my mind why we may fold and this all comes from the coaches/leadership
Toughness? Everything I've red and seen suggests we are stronger and in better shape then last year.

What do you got? Clear, concise, thoughtful reasons why we can't compete?

---

OK, I'm finally getting around to responding to your question.

1. Loved your post and optimism
2. I was in agreement until the 6 tightly wrapped sentences near the end:
Youth? We have no D1 DTs healthy enough to play 3 downs, we have only 2 returning DBs who started at their positions, our offense line has 0 starts as a group, we have 0 RBs who have played a complete season healthy as was the case with Sofele/Anderson etc., we will start at least 1 LB with virtually no experience, our PK has no experience and it seems that our STs will be filled with new players (although this is probably an upgrade).
Talent? (see youth) plus we have nowhere near the talent at UCLA, USC, frud, Oregon, ASU and Washington. It is questionable how talented our LBs are now that they have been ravaged by every kind of depletion since 2010 when it looked like 2014 would be the year for our D. There is very little talent on our DL and what there is is on the outside at DE. Despite our excessive depth and talent at WR, several pac-12 teams are actually equally talented this year (frud, AU, WSU and USC), which will make our improved DBs look, well, not that much improved.
Depth? We have very few positions where we can afford injury. We can't at QB, we can't at LT, we can't at PK, we can't at safety, we can't at DT, we can't at any LB spot and we can't afford to lose Scarlett. I would say that we aren't thin at RB, but we are not deep either, same with DE and center. The only positions we have some depth are at CB, OG and WR.
Coaching? I'll just leave at that.
Culture? Believe it or not, and I may be the only one, mindset is one of the few areas that I am not concerned about. Even last year, I think this team had a good mindset. I think they were physically weak not mentally weak.
Toughness? I want to believe they are tougher and stronger and so I will. But that is an assumption based on the endless spin that comes out of Cal camp.

Let me ask you this:

What starting unit this year is significantly better than what we thought we had at this time last year?

I'd answer this by saying that QB and WR are better. Possibly the OL is better and the RBs may turn out to be better but not better than what we thought Bigelow would be before the season started.

I am excited for the year because I think more games will be like the NU and AU games and less will be like the furd and Oregon St. games. And that means that the season should be much more exciting and interesting even if it is just 3 or 4 wins.

BTW, because of recent injuries, I have changed my outlook on the NU game and I now think Cal can win. They most certainly will beat the spread unless the dreaded turf claims a few more of our players during practices next week.

You just said the whole offense is better even though youre not being optimistic

Davidson;842345524 said:

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You just said the whole offense is better even though youre not being optimistic

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I'm not optimistic about our defense and I'm concerned about our depth and our ability to stay healthy, particularly on defense.

We have 5 guys projected as starters coming into camp that are limited or out because of injury (D. White, Nickerson, Sebastian, Broussard, Jalil). We have 3 more that were projected into the rotation that are out or limited (Sina, Tartabull, Lopa). 4 of those key players will probably not see the field against NU (Broussard, Tartabull, White and Sina). Despite the spin, we aren't exactly healthy on D and we have another week to hold our breath.

I'm a Cal fan. Optimism is a luxury never afforded to us for very long. It usually lasts through August.

heartofthebear;842345534 said:

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I'm not optimistic about our defense and I'm concerned about our depth and our ability to stay healthy, particularly on defense.

We have 5 guys projected as starters coming into camp that are limited or out because of injury (D. White, Nickerson, Sebastian, Broussard, Jalil). We have 3 more that were projected into the rotation that are out or limited (Sina, Tartabull, Lopa). 4 of those key players will probably not see the field against NU (Broussard, Tartabull, White and Sina). Despite the spin, we aren't exactly healthy on D and we have another week to hold our breath.

I'm a Cal fan. Optimism is a luxury never afforded to us for very long. It usually lasts through August.

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Don't mess up my last week of optimism damnit.

heartofthebear;842345515 said:

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Let me ask you this:

What starting unit this year is significantly better than what we thought we had at this time last year?

I'd answer this by saying that QB and WR are better. Possibly the OL is better and the RBs may turn out to be better but not better than what we thought Bigelow would be before the season started.

I am excited for the year because I think more games will be like the NU and AU games and less will be like the furd and Oregon St. games. And that means that the season should be much more exciting and interesting even if it is just 3 or 4 wins.

BTW, because of recent injuries, I have changed my outlook on the NU game and I now think Cal can win. They most certainly will beat the spread unless the dreaded turf claims a few more of our players during practices next week.

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I think the biggest thing is the OL. If that is truly better, our offense can sing. QB play will be better. RBs will be better. Most importantly we can score TDs in the redzone!!!

My biggest concern is the DL. Kaufman's scheme sounds like more of an attacking one with more focus on getting pressure from different places instead of gap control. I LOVE THAT. Penderghast played an attacking D and it was feast or famine.

If our Defense can be opportunistic and controlled, but also creating pressure, that may be exactly what we need.

If you look at Oregon, they allow a TON of points to be scored on them. That's because they know their offense will keep scoring so instead of allowing themselves to be worn down, they play aggressive and go for turnovers or allow quick scores. That keeps them fresher and eventually they create turnovers but don't give them away. We need a defense that plays that way. Go for the interception and if you miss, they get a quick touchdown and we get the ball back. That only works when we can score consistently when we have it :-).

82gradDLSdad;842345296 said:

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Look at it this way...how many teams are going to double their win total this year? Not many. How many are going to triple their win total? Maybe a couple. We could do that and still win 3 games. You're welcome.

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That doesn't seem like a meaningful way to look at it. It would be literally impossible for any team that won as many as 6 games last year to triple their win total. If you have even 5 wins and triple your win total, it means you won the national championship. You're talking about such small numbers that "triple" is a meaningless framework. Going from 1 to 3 is pretty easy. Going from 3 to 9 is really difficult.

Better way to think about it is, how many teams are going to win 3 more games than they won last year? Probably several. We'll probably be one of them.

atoms;842345574 said:

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That doesn't seem like a meaningful way to look at it. It would be literally impossible for any team that won as many as 6 games last year to triple their win total. If you have even 5 wins and triple your win total, it means you won the national championship. You're talking about such small numbers that "triple" is a meaningless framework. Going from 1 to 3 is pretty easy. Going from 3 to 9 is really difficult.

Better way to think about it is, how many teams are going to win 3 more games than they won last year? Probably several. We'll probably be one of them.

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Not sure you caught the sarcasm in 82grad's post.

CalBear04;842345569 said:

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I think the biggest thing is the OL. If that is truly better, our offense can sing. QB play will be better. RBs will be better. Most importantly we can score TDs in the redzone!!!

My biggest concern is the DL. Kaufman's scheme sounds like more of an attacking one with more focus on getting pressure from different places instead of gap control. I LOVE THAT. Penderghast played an attacking D and it was feast or famine.

If our Defense can be opportunistic and controlled, but also creating pressure, that may be exactly what we need.

If you look at Oregon, they allow a TON of points to be scored on them. That's because they know their offense will keep scoring so instead of allowing themselves to be worn down, they play aggressive and go for turnovers or allow quick scores. That keeps them fresher and eventually they create turnovers but don't give them away. We need a defense that plays that way. Go for the interception and if you miss, they get a quick touchdown and we get the ball back. That only works when we can score consistently when we have it :-).

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I guess you know that all of your optimism is based on the premise that the OL will get it done in the running game and in the red zone. Like I said, I love your optimism but a realist would say the OL still has yet to prove any of that. Keep in mind that it requires a double team for our OL to contain Moose, who is coming off injury. Jalil, while our best interior lineman on defense, is probably just barely above average compared to what Cal will be facing from other teams this year.

Just being a realist

NYCGOBEARS;842345535 said:

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Don't mess up my last week of optimism damnit.

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Don't be so pessimistic.

You have slightly over a week.

heartofthebear;842345600 said:

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Don't be so pessimistic.

You have slightly over a week.

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I'm going out and getting some more Kool Aid today. I've been drinking it by the gallons.

heartofthebear;842345599 said:

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I guess you know that all of your optimism is based on the premise that the OL will get it done in the running game and in the red zone. Like I said, I love your optimism but a realist would say the OL still has yet to prove any of that. Keep in mind that it requires a double team for our OL to contain Moose, who is coming off injury. Jalil, while our best interior lineman on defense, is probably just barely above average compared to what Cal will be facing from other teams this year.

Just being a realist

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We really don't [U]know[/U] anything, positive or negative. Bring on the season.

I am always excited 7 days out. It is Cal football. Even when Bad it is the Bears.

Though I do laugh at "suffered for 5 years". Try 42. Remember that as a kid you made up a song called "Fire Roger Theder". Remember the day they passed out roses in Memorial only to see stinking USC Trojans, SOMEHOW (think about this yougins) LOSE a game in which they forced (again, think about this and the indian burial ground curse) ELEVEN fumbles (recovering 8). AT the f'ing Mosoleum......and their legendary coach's last game. Remember Mac Brown and the ridiculousness that the number 4 team in the nation - forced to reschedule a september game because a HURRICANE and NATIONAL DISASTER , decided not to run up the score on a Traumatized community....or that somehow the ghost of the native american buried at Memorial somehow traveled all the god damm way to TUSCON to trip Lavelle Hawkins at the five.

honestly, 5 years of frustration ain't ANYTHING young blood. And some of you wonder why some of us Negabears are sometimes a bit over the top bitter.

CalAlumnus13;842345594 said:

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Not sure you caught the sarcasm in 82grad's post.

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lol whoops

socaltownie;842345620 said:

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I am always excited 7 days out. It is Cal football. Even when Bad it is the Bears.

Though I do laugh at "suffered for 5 years". Try 42. Remember that as a kid you made up a song called "Fire Roger Theder". Remember the day they passed out roses in Memorial only to see stinking USC Trojans, SOMEHOW (think about this yougins) LOSE a game in which they forced (again, think about this and the indian burial ground curse) ELEVEN fumbles (recovering 8). AT the f'ing Mosoleum......and their legendary coach's last game. Remember Mac Brown and the ridiculousness that the number 4 team in the nation - forced to reschedule a september game because a HURRICANE and NATIONAL DISASTER , decided not to run up the score on a Traumatized community....or that somehow the ghost of the native american buried at Memorial somehow traveled all the god damm way to TUSCON to trip Lavelle Hawkins at the five.

honestly, 5 years of frustration ain't ANYTHING young blood. And some of you wonder why some of us Negabears are sometimes a bit over the top bitter.

---

Those are my wounds as well. Unless you want to add the fact that our all-american QB was suffering from cancer while playing his senior year and died the next year.

But I don't get the indian (native american) burial ground curse thing. Doesn't all this CMS stench just dishonor the indians even more? Wouldn't a buried spirit want to turn the stadium into a shrine of inspiration rather than an arena of despair and heartbreak?

NYCGOBEARS;842345608 said:

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I'm going out and getting some more Kool Aid today. I've been drinking it by the gallons.

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You might want to put some 4 leaf clovers in that and stir it with a lucky rabbit's foot.
Then pour the whole thing over a bowl of lucky charms. It helps if it's a wooden bowl.

heartofthebear;842345630 said:

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You might want to put some 4 leaf clovers in that and stir it with a lucky rabbit's foot.
Then pour the whole thing over a bowl of lucky charms. It helps if it's a wooden bowl.

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Cheap vodka works best for me.

Damn, you got me. I was just taking the OP's challenge and trying to talk him down off his Cal pre-season high. I agree with your post except for one part..."Going from 1 to 3 is pretty easy". Check back with me next Saturday night. You may be right...or not.

atoms;842345574 said:

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That doesn't seem like a meaningful way to look at it. It would be literally impossible for any team that won as many as 6 games last year to triple their win total. If you have even 5 wins and triple your win total, it means you won the national championship. You're talking about such small numbers that "triple" is a meaningless framework. Going from 1 to 3 is pretty easy. Going from 3 to 9 is really difficult.

Better way to think about it is, how many teams are going to win 3 more games than they won last year? Probably several. We'll probably be one of them.

---

heartofthebear;842345628 said:

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Those are my wounds as well. Unless you want to add the fact that our all-american QB was suffering from cancer while playing his senior year and died the next year.

But I don't get the indian (native american) burial ground curse thing. Doesn't all this CMS stench just dishonor the indians even more? Wouldn't a buried spirit want to turn the stadium into a shrine of inspiration rather than an arena of despair and heartbreak?

---

Because clearly the Miwok's most critical village, a place of higher learning and wisdom was located along the banks of a small year round creek that came down from the surrounding hills. They could fish the bay, gather acorns at this site and have enough of a surplus of foodstuff to support a community of scholarship. When they decided to build a STADIUM near the most holy of holies, the ghosts cursed the white man. Strangely, the place where the miwok played an ancient game with a bunch of acorns tied together and hit with an oak stick was long ignored but now is blessed. The ghosts wondered why the dumb white man played for years at a place known as "Where the wind blows stronger than she who roars and weighes 50 stones".

Now in contrast, to the West the same people build a place of scholarship, teaching and knowledge. The ghosts were pleased. They bless this place and it became the greatest public university in the world.

Lesson - don't mess with Native Americans.

socaltownie;842345620 said:

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I am always excited 7 days out. It is Cal football. Even when Bad it is the Bears.

Though I do laugh at "suffered for 5 years". Try 42. Remember that as a kid you made up a song called "Fire Roger Theder". Remember the day they passed out roses in Memorial only to see stinking USC Trojans, SOMEHOW (think about this yougins) LOSE a game in which they forced (again, think about this and the indian burial ground curse) ELEVEN fumbles (recovering 8). AT the f'ing Mosoleum......and their legendary coach's last game. Remember Mac Brown and the ridiculousness that the number 4 team in the nation - forced to reschedule a september game because a HURRICANE and NATIONAL DISASTER , decided not to run up the score on a Traumatized community....or that somehow the ghost of the native american buried at Memorial somehow traveled all the god damm way to TUSCON to trip Lavelle Hawkins at the five.

honestly, 5 years of frustration ain't ANYTHING young blood. And some of you wonder why some of us Negabears are sometimes a bit over the top bitter.

---

True on the 5 years piece. I've been a Cal fan for more like 15 but the Holmoe years were hardly suffering since we were irrelevant and I didn't know any better. It wasn't until we were a couple coaches votes away from the RoseBowl that I finally understood what football suffering is.

socaltownie;842345642 said:

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Because clearly the Miwok's most critical village, a place of higher learning and wisdom was located along the banks of a small year round creek that came down from the surrounding hills. They could fish the bay, gather acorns at this site and have enough of a surplus of foodstuff to support a community of scholarship. When they decided to build a STADIUM near the most holy of holies, the ghosts cursed the white man. Strangely, the place where the miwok played an ancient game with a bunch of acorns tied together and hit with an oak stick was long ignored but now is blessed. The ghosts wondered why the dumb white man played for years at a place known as "Where the wind blows stronger than she who roars and weighes 50 stones".

Now in contrast, to the West the same people build a place of scholarship, teaching and knowledge. The ghosts were pleased. They bless this place and it became the greatest public university in the world.

Lesson - don't mess with Native Americans.

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Thanks for the history lesson.