ducky23;842364765 said:
My point is (and it seems to escape you) is that uw has looked awful this season. Many would argue they've played much worse than cal has.
And while there's always a chance they could improve dramatically as the season progresses, I highly doubt it.
That doesn't mean Petersen is an awful coach. He inherited a bunch of thugs and once he gets his own players and begins to implement his own system, he will probably have some decent amount of success.
And I bet that would be exactly what you would say to justify a mediocre first season for Petersen at uw. But for some reason, you can't give dykes that same leeway.
My point being, if Petersen came to cal last year, how many games do you think he would have won? Maybe three tops considering our injury situation. But even with three wins, you would have given him the benefit of the doubt because he's the guy you wanted originally.
But with dykes, despite seeing vast vast improvement this year, you are still intent on bashing him since you already have this preconceived notion that he's an awful coach.
So I ask again. What will it take to say you're wrong about dykes. A win over Petersen? A bowl appearance? A rose bowl win?
I disagree on Washington. Yes, they haven't looked like BSU worldbeaters, but they are 4-0 and have handled easily their last two opponents. Oregon in the first few games in 2009 didn't look that great in Chip Kelly's first year at the helm, either. But one thing that Corky the Huckster could do was recruit and sell a program, and he left UW with a full cupboard when he bolted for Smog Central. Now that talent has a real coach, and I predicted a 9-win season this year for them, right out of the gates. I see nothing to change that prediction, so I see no reason to rationalize a mediocre season for Petersen at UW.
Had Dykes merely had a mediocre season, I would have given him leeway (I'm sure he would have appreciated that). But he didn't have a mediocre season. He had the worst season in Cal history, and as I've noted that Oaktown has stated eloquently and patiently, it takes a special effort to be that bad.
You also seem to underestimate the effect that a coach has on a college program. I've already shown examples where Saban took an 0-11 MSU team to 6-5 the following year and Meyer took 2-9 Bowling Green to 8-3 the following year. Good coaches come in and change the culture immediately, they know exactly what they want to do and how to accomplish it. None of this feeling around trying to figure things out BS like we saw last year and hotb tellingly says Dykes worked to change in the offseason. A coach like Saban, Meyer, or Petersen would have said I don't care if these guys are injured, these other guys are going to step in and step up, and we're going to win ball games. Then they would put those players in a position to succeed, playing to strengths and masking deficiencies. They'd be flexible with schemes given available personnel, not try to jam the TFS down the throats of players who might not be suited to the system. You may disagree, but with any one of those three, with their track records and the way we know they operate, I would have expected a minor bowl appearance from the Bears last year.
My notion that Dykes is an awful coach is not based on a preconception. It is based on his abysmal performance in the role of HC last year, a year where the TV cameras caught him candidly asking Franklin why things weren't working, because we have the players. If HE thinks we had the players, why don't you? And yes, we're seeing improvement over last year, but, Christ, how could we not? This is a vast improvement only compared to last years abysmal performance, not any reasonable metric.
I don't know what it will take to say I'm wrong about Dykes. It's so out of the realm of possibility that it could happen, I haven't given that specific query any serious thought. I have said that I'd eat my hat if Cal went 6-6 this year. But 4-8 is much more likely the best-case scenario this year, assuming the staff doesn't find a way to lose the two more winnable games on the schedule. Then we're on to next year and a ready-made excuse in the tougher schedule. Oh, and we'll be young, again, I expect.