Cal + 3.5. That's pretty much in line with what I was expecting.

What's more interesting is that colorado is +6.5 at home against Osu. Vegas not showing a lot of respect for the beavs. Which means that this may be a more winnable game for us then I think many are realizing.

Whew..I am so glad that WSU doesn't throw the ball much..I feel better already!

72CalBear;842368710 said:

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Whew..I am so glad that WSU doesn't throw the ball much..I feel better already!

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They are dead last in the FBS in rushing.

If we can run it we win if we let them throw it 100 times we lose

+1

ducky23;842368706 said:

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Cal + 3.5. That's pretty much in line with what I was expecting.

What's more interesting is that colorado is +6.5 at home against Osu. Vegas not showing a lot of respect for the beavs. Which means that this may be a more winnable game for us then I think many are realizing.

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I think vegas realizes that it is hard to win in Boulder. ASU was outplayed by the Buffs there. OSU by 6.5 sounds about right. And I think it will go up to closer to 10.
I also think the spread will drop under 3 in the Cal game.

Sounds about right. Vegas, and therefore public perception, has finally caught up with Cal and the extrapolations from last year are over.

If Rutgers and Nevada can beat them, we can beat them. I wonder how Nevada held them to just 13 points? I see Halliday had 2 picks in that game, and they were 0-2 on 4th downs.

pappysghost;842368828 said:

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If Rutgers and Nevada can beat them, we can beat them. I wonder how Nevada held them to just 13 points? I see Halliday had 2 picks in that game, and they were 0-2 on 4th downs.

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I was looking at their games... That one game was in Nevada. The Cougs got 425 yards, but only managed 13 points. Two picks on Halliday certainly didn't help their cause.

pappysghost;842368828 said:

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If Rutgers and Nevada can beat them, we can beat them. I wonder how Nevada held them to just 13 points? I see Halliday had 2 picks in that game, and they were 0-2 on 4th downs.

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Not to knock anyone, but if memory serves, I would think that we of all teams should not underestimate Nevada.

Davidson;842368756 said:

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If we can run it we win if we let them throw it 100 times we lose

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What's Halliday's game high in pass attempts?

Cal89;842368834 said:

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I was looking at their games... That one game was in Nevada. The Cougs got 425 yards, but only managed 13 points. Two picks on Halliday certainly didn't help their cause.

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Wsu really struggles in the red zone.

For one, they have no run game. So that kind of mirrors our red zone struggles from last year.

Number two, they have no go to receiver who can make the type of ridiculous catches you need in the red zone (like spruce or lawler).

Basically the way you beat wsu is you prevent the big play, but give them yardage between the twenties. But allow fgs and not tds and hopefully force a pick or two.

ducky23;842368842 said:

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Wsu really struggles in the red zone.

For one, they have no run game. So that kind of mirrors our red zone struggles from last year.

Number two, they have no go to receiver who can make the type of ridiculous catches you need in the red zone (like spruce or lawler).

Basically the way you beat wsu is you prevent the big play, but give them yardage between the twenties. But allow fgs and not tds and hopefully force a pick or two.

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You make it sound as if the Cougar offense should be easy to defend against just so long as they don't get long scoring plays.

FiatSlug;842368841 said:

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What's Halliday's game high in pass attempts?

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Not really sure, but don't they throw it around 5 to 1 rushing? I can see if we let them run 110-120 plays, his pass attempts could approach 100.....

FiatSlug;842368845 said:

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You make it sound as if the Cougar offense should be easy to defend against just so long as they don't get long scoring plays.

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Easy to defend? Not really. They may get 500 passing yards against us or more.

But the key is locking down in the red zone. Their offense is not made to run efficiently once it's a smaller field. And they have zero ability to run once in the red zone.

So will it be easy to stop the big plays? No.
But that's probably going to be the goal.

Davidson;842368846 said:

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Not really sure, but don't they throw it around 5 to 1 rushing? I can see if we let them run 110-120 plays, his pass attempts could approach 100.....

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Leach doesn't run a hurry-up offense. If they're getting > 100 plays off, then so are we.

it seemed colorado was successful passing, but not rushing
I kept wondering why they didn't just pass 80% of the time, although obviously that has it's own problems (see us last year)

but with WSU, I guess we will see what happens when a team is a one-dimensional passing team

At 2.7 yards a carry and just 261 yards over 5 games is very unbalanced for sure. Our defensive strength will seemingly not be a factor next Saturday.

They make their 3rd downs pretty well at 48%, 4th best in the conference (we are 2nd, behind Oregon!). Considering that opposing Ds know they will be passing the vast majority of time, it's pretty impressive to convert so many 3rd downs. So much for deception... It's about execution. We are at the bottom of the conference in points and yards allowed per game. Our pass D, clearly is the main reason, so this match-up probably has them thinking that is one of their better chances for a win...

Their rush D is in the bottom 3rd of the conference and pass D pretty much in the middle.

It's early, but looks to be no rain Saturday night...

Cal89;842368869 said:

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At 2.7 yards a carry and just 261 yards over 5 games is very unbalanced for sure. Our defensive strength will seemingly not be a factor next Saturday.

They make their 3rd downs pretty well at 48%, 4th best in the conference (we are 2nd, behind Oregon!). Considering that opposing Ds know they will be passing the vast majority of time, it's pretty impressive to convert so many 3rd downs. So much for deception... It's about execution. We are at the bottom of the conference in points and yards allowed per game. Our pass D, clearly is the main reason, so this match-up probably has them thinking that is one of their better chances for a win...

Their rush D is in the bottom 3rd of the conference and pass D pretty much in the middle.

It's early, but looks to be no rain Saturday night...

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Wsu is averaging 480 yards per game passing. A ridiculous number. But they are only 7th in the league in points per game. Sound familiar?

When you have zero rushing threat and you're in the red zone; the opposing team can simply drop 8 guys into pass coverage. In a shrunken field, that makes it nearly impossible for the team on offense.

That's why wsu ranks 102 in the country for red zone efficiency. Cal ranks first btw.

Again if cal can make this a game based on success in the red zone, I like our chances.

i can see if the any body drops 8 to stop the pass our RB will get holes to get 5-7 yards most of the time...

the fact that CAL O line looks like its in pass pro when we run .. that is sneaky

Well, the good news is that we're good at giving up the short, underneath throws. The bad news is that we are good at giving up the big play, deep throws too. I guess we'll just have to watch on Saturday and see if we can make enough stops to win...like yesterday.

ducky23;842368842 said:

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Wsu really struggles in the red zone.

For one, they have no run game. So that kind of mirrors our red zone struggles from last year.

Number two, they have no go to receiver who can make the type of ridiculous catches you need in the red zone (like spruce or lawler).

Basically the way you beat wsu is you prevent the big play, but give them yardage between the twenties. But allow fgs and not tds and hopefully force a pick or two.

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ducky23;842368885 said:

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Wsu is averaging 480 yards per game passing. A ridiculous number. But they are only 7th in the league in points per game. Sound familiar?

When you have zero rushing threat and you're in the red zone; the opposing team can simply drop 8 guys into pass coverage. In a shrunken field, that makes it nearly impossible for the team on offense.

That's why wsu ranks 102 in the country for red zone efficiency. Cal ranks first btw.

Again if cal can make this a game based on success in the red zone, I like our chances.

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Good stuff ducky23. The more I look through their games, how they play, strengths and weaknesses, I too feel that Cal can take this one.

Speaking of efficiency, we really turned this around from last year, not just in the red zone per se, but similarly, generating points off of yardage. We are 12th in points generated off of total yards (average points / average yards). Last year, a ton of yards, and very few points to show for it. This year, very few wasted yards. Major change...

82gradDLSdad;842368895 said:

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Well, the good news is that we're good at giving up the short, underneath throws. The bad news is that we are good at giving up the big play, deep throws too. I guess we'll just have to watch on Saturday and see if we can make enough stops to win...like yesterday.

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long passes ... besides az wr push off artist jones.. not many long pass compared to last season in the first 4 games

now having paitt and lowe back there and no #20 to pick on all game ... world of difference to me

we give up slants to keep the play in front AND TACKLE some big play but i do not think to same degree.. the number of
pass plays surrendered in the first 4 games this season vs last over 20/30+ yards seems to be less .. would not know how to compile though numbers to support my theory ...

going4roses;842368908 said:

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long passes ... besides az wr push off artist jones.. not many long pass compared to last season in the first 4 games

now having paitt and lowe back there and no #20 to pick on all game ... world of difference to me

we give up slants to keep the play in front AND TACKLE some big play but i do not think to same degree.. the number of
pass plays surrendered in the first 4 games this season vs last over 20/30+ yards seems to be less .. would not know how to compile though numbers to support my theory ...

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I think your hunch is correct. I feel the same, but haven't made the time...

If you care, and want to make the time, you can look at play logs to see the long pass completions against us. The Cal website has such, as does Yahoo! and others... Here's the Cal one for yesterday:

http://www.calbears.com/liveStats/v2/football/index.dbml?GAME_STAT_ID=1674768&db_oem_id=30100

A bit tedious, but shouldn't take too long with just 4 games... I'm getting a preso done for work, so no can do at this time.

take care of the real stuff and we /BI will handle the play stuff

Should be a good game.

I know this sounds crazy, but has anyone given the slightest thought to Wazzu's defense? Ok, they're not world-beaters, but I think they have improved quite a bit since their debacle in the opener against Rutgers. They just held Utah to 13 offensive points and 4.1 yards per pass attempt in Utah in a 28-27 win (Utah had one defensive and one special teams TD). They did give up 38 to Oregon, but that is actually not terrible against the Ducks considering the starters were in throughout for both teams in a close (38-31) game.

Sounds weird to say, but based on their last couple games, they may be the best defense we've faced this season (though it's probably close with NW and Zona... none of these are good defenses admittedly). And not that I think Goff and crew will have a ton of trouble moving the ball and scoring against the Cougs. But can we do it enough? We may need to score a lot.

We play better at night. Right?

82gradDLSdad;842368895 said:

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Well, the good news is that we're good at giving up the short, underneath throws. The bad news is that we are good at giving up the big play, deep throws too. I guess we'll just have to watch on Saturday and see if we can make enough stops to win...like yesterday.

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This is also case-dependent. We gave up very few big plays (only one?) against NU because they had nobody that could stretch the field. UA had Jones and CU had Spruce. Plus, we had to account for a better ground attack and a mobile quarterback in particular, therefore being forced to play man-to-man defense against UA and CU.

We can expect more zone against WSU and this might improve the pass defense. This will more readily facilitate safety help.

Can our OL hold up enough to protect Goff late in the game when it will probably matter?
We have to run early and often to do that.

Our running will be a major key ... eating up time and getting to the end zone a bit more slowly.
But, if Lasco and Khalfani get into open space ....

ducky23;842368885 said:

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Wsu is averaging 480 yards per game passing. A ridiculous number. But they are only 7th in the league in points per game. Sound familiar?

When you have zero rushing threat and you're in the red zone; the opposing team can simply drop 8 guys into pass coverage. In a shrunken field, that makes it nearly impossible for the team on offense.

That's why wsu ranks 102 in the country for red zone efficiency. Cal ranks first btw.

Again if cal can make this a game based on success in the red zone, I like our chances.

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Max pass rush: One DT and rotate the 2 DT starters there. Scarlett at the other DT slot and rush him every play. LB at DE where Scarlett plays and rush him. MLB to clean up any RB that gets through. S at Sam and blitz him, alternating with Will. Use "mill about" alignment at times.

great weather forecast right now for saturday, low 70s and clear, it's good to get that road trip early in the season.

One thing that's kind of weird though, is how they manage as a one-dimensional passing team in bad weather, which is a given for them in home games through Nov/Dec....

going4roses;842368908 said:

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long passes ... besides az wr push off artist jones.. not many long pass compared to last season in the first 4 games

now having paitt and lowe back there and no #20 to pick on all game ... world of difference to me

we give up slants to keep the play in front AND TACKLE some big play but i do not think to same degree.. the number of
pass plays surrendered in the first 4 games this season vs last over 20/30+ yards seems to be less .. would not know how to compile though numbers to support my theory ...

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So you want the stats on "opponent long passing plays"? I can get you that quickly.

2013
Cal was last in the conference
20-29 - 24 passing plays
30-39 - 13
40-49 - 8
50-59 - 4
60-69 - 5
70-79 - 2
80-89 - 1
90+ - 1

2014
Cal is #6 in the conference for allowing 20+ yard passing plays (#12 for 10+ yard plays)
20-29 - 8
30-39 - 2
40-49 - 2
50-59 - 1
60+ - 0

It's not a great improvement, but it is an improvement. at the current rate we have given up 20+ yard passing plays, we'll still allow 19 fewer than we did in 2013.

mvargus;842369013 said:

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So you want the stats on "opponent long passing plays"? I can get you that quickly.

2013
Cal was last in the conference
20-29 - 24 passing plays
30-39 - 13
40-49 - 8
50-59 - 4
60-69 - 5
70-79 - 2
80-89 - 1
90+ - 1

2014
Cal is #6 in the conference for allowing 20+ yard passing plays (#12 for 10+ yard plays)
20-29 - 8
30-39 - 2
40-49 - 2
50-59 - 1
60+ - 0

It's not a great improvement, but it is an improvement. at the current rate we have given up 20+ yard passing plays, we'll still allow 19 fewer than we did in 2013.

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mvargus, if you don't mind sharing, what is the quick way to get this data?

And thank you for confirming what I / we thought. Sometimes the data does not...

Cal89;842369014 said:

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mvargus, if you don't mind sharing, what is the quick way to get this data?

And thank you for confirming what I / we thought. Sometimes the data does not...

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I use a website called cfbstats.com

They have a rather extensive collection of statistics and they compile every Sunday. Best they allow you to look a just 1 team, or you can look at conference and national ratings. The team ratings even do a lot of splits so you can look at say passing success on first and ten or success running the ball at away games only.