Vegas test lines are out. They seem to think it'll be a fairly close game. Final public lines should be out tonight. Will be interesting to see how this moves.

hanky1;842537073 said:

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Vegas test lines are out. They seem to think it'll be a fairly close game. Final public lines should be out tonight. Will be interesting to see how this moves.

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Cal -7.5 at home against is just disrespectful.

gotta think Cal fans and other ppl in the know will drive the spread up for Cal. actually, acc2 vegas insiders, it is already at -9.

Seriously if we don't win by 3+ scores watch out. Means USD wins FCS and UCSD is going to dominate its conference. Or we aren't any better than last year.

SD state is a solid. Don't expect 35-0 in the first quarter or half that is

I expect at some point we will be up 35-17 or better. Might not be until the third quarter. Remember - we didn't play our first team at all in the second half. And for what it's worth, Aztec offense might be worse than Grambling's. They only scored one offensive TD against a team with no scholarship players.

It's not public yet i.e. Normal folks like us cannot bet. The public line should be open soon. I'd expect it to be around -10-11.

hanky1;842537090 said:

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It's not public yet i.e. Normal folks like us cannot bet. The public line should be open soon. I'd expect it to be around -10-11.

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winning by 14 at home is what i'd expect Cal to do to a lower-tier PAC team like Colorado or Oregon State in an average year.

winning at home against a Mountain West team? it's gotta be more than that. in my mind (probably Cal-biased), it should be more like -17.

The -7.5 line is there to drive wagering. Cal fans have already said it - that's disrespectful and way too low. Meanwhile SDSU fans are saying, what only 7.5, we're in it, I'm going to drop some $$$!

I think Cal should be able to score 40. The question is what does the D give up to their run game? I think they can score 20 pts. Don't have an idea of the margin yet or how things roll out but 42-21 sounds right. Going to double up on SDSU.

Funny
I was just thinking 34-27 Cal
and then I upgraded it to 37-27 Cal

Either way you're taking your chances betting on this one.

63-13

This will be a high scoring game.

How exactly is SDSU going to score those points?

Their QBs were horrible yesterday -11/23 for 139 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT. Running game was better but still just 4.6 ypc and only 1 TD. Only 2 runs longer than 15 yards.

And remember - this is against a team with no scholarship players. So if they only managed 305 yards of offense and 1 TD, how are they going to score points against us?

Can we talk crap to hunter hewitt

don't see how betting on Cal at -7.5 is any riskier than taking either side of that 40 pt Grambling spread.

liverflukes;842537110 said:

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This will be a high scoring game.

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Unit2Sucks;842537122 said:

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How exactly is SDSU going to score those points?

Their QBs were horrible yesterday -11/23 for 139 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT. Running game was better but still just 4.6 ypc and only 1 TD. Only 2 runs longer than 15 yards.

And remember - this is against a team with no scholarship players. So if they only managed 305 yards of offense and 1 TD, how are they going to score points against us?

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I meant high scoring by our team. 52-17

In the pre-season Sagarin ratings, Cal was rated 42nd with a rating 76.86. San Diego State was rated 62nd with a rating of 69.19. Which suggests a spread of about 7.5 on a neutral field. The Sagarin home advantage is 2.65, so this line seems a little low, but it doesn't seem way out of line. If I had to guess, I'd imagine it'll settle somewhere closer to 10. San Diego State's rating is right in between Oregon State and Colorado, FWIW

Unit2Sucks;842537079 said:

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Seriously if we don't win by 3+ scores watch out. Means USD wins FCS and UCSD is going to dominate its conference. Or we aren't any better than last year.

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Does UCSD even have a team? As of a few years ago, they didn't. If so, how does this reflect on USD? Or SDSU?

beeasyed;842537130 said:

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don't see how betting on Cal at -7.5 is any riskier than taking either side of that 40 pt Grambling spread.

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I wouldn't have made that bet either.

I don't bet as a rule but there are often good bets early in the year before folks get a good feel for teams and how they've changed from the prior year. This year I don't see that with Cal because, while we know Cal is better, we don't know how good teams like SDS, Texas, Washington and Utah are.

Just bet Cal -9.5. This line will be up to 12+ by game time. SDS just doesn't match up

beeasyed;842537093 said:

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winning by 14 at home is what i'd expect Cal to do to a lower-tier PAC team like Colorado or Oregon State in an average year.

winning at home against a Mountain West team? it's gotta be more than that. in my mind (probably Cal-biased), it should be more like -17.

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Ed, I probably also would take Cal -7.5 at this point. But I don't think your juxtaposition is a great one. SDSU this year is supposed to be better than Colorado and Oregon State. They are not just "a Mountain West team", but MWC co-favorites along with Boise. No, that should not strike fear into our hearts, but they are supposedly a decent team with a ton of returning 2-deep players (like us). That being said, they did not look good on Saturday against USD. So who knows.

Sounds like they like to gamble on D, so let's hope we can make them pay while taking care of the ball. Just do those things and I think we win solidly. By 17? We'll see.

OneKeg;842537507 said:

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Ed, I probably also would take Cal -7.5 at this point. But I don't think your juxtaposition is a great one. SDSU this year is supposed to be better than Colorado and Oregon State. They are not just "a Mountain West team", but MWC co-favorites along with Boise. No, that should not strike fear into our hearts, but they are supposedly a decent team with a ton of returning 2-deep players (like us). That being said, they did not look good on Saturday against USD. So who knows.

Sounds like they like to gamble on D, so let's hope we can make them pay while taking care of the ball. Just do those things and I think we win solidly. By 17? We'll see.

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that's fair. there are indeed tiers within the mountain west as well. I don't think I would say the same about a potential Boise State matchup.

despite this poor juxtaposition, I feel still feel our ability to efficiently hang up points will outmatch SDSU more than 17 points worth. I'd go as far as to say we'll win by 20!

heartofthebear;842537159 said:

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I wouldn't have made that bet either.

I don't bet as a rule but there are often good bets early in the year before folks get a good feel for teams and how they've changed from the prior year. This year I don't see that with Cal because, while we know Cal is better, we don't know how good teams like SDS, Texas, Washington and Utah are.

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I've bet on a Cal game only once... and that was last year against Oregon when the over / under was 79. I walked by the sports book at the Cosmopolitan 20 times thinking "what do they know I don't know..." I took the over.

the house on cal - 9

which probably means we're f****d

They really want some action on this one, don't they?

Maybe San Diego State simply wasn't properly motivated last Saturday. They may have looked past UCD since they had Cal coming up the next week.

Similarly Grambling State really was just an extended scrimmage for Cal. Hard to say anything definitive. Having said all that, I think a line around -10.5 range is about right.

If San Diego State starts giving the Cal D problems, then anything can happen in the game.

I do think Cal wins going away.

JSML;842537522 said:

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Maybe San Diego State simply wasn't properly motivated last Saturday. They may have looked past UCD since they had Cal coming up the next week.

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Their QB went 8/21, they had no offensive touchdowns, they were vanilla but did not show they could do anything against USD.

My first sports bet on Cal was f'ing beautiful. Las Vegas, around 8:45 in the morning, half hung over and running on 2 hours sleep, at some crappy little sports book.

2002, Cal +13 @ Michigan State, 9am Pacific kickoff - Jeff Tedford's 3rd game. Spartans were supposed to be good (they weren't). My buddy and I looked for a money line where we could bet the Bears straight up and get good odds, but on short notice, did not find one. So $110 each on Cal to win $100 (plus original bet back of course), getting 13 points in East Lansing.

We got 50oz beers that they were selling in plastic containers that were in the shape of an upright football with a base so it did not fall over. And we sat next to some Michigan State fans who were doing the same thing but betting the other way.

46-22. It was glorious.

liverflukes;842537131 said:

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I meant high scoring by our team. 52-17

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+1

JSML;842537522 said:

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Maybe San Diego State simply wasn't properly motivated last Saturday. They may have looked past UCD since they had Cal coming up the next week.

Similarly Grambling State really was just an extended scrimmage for Cal. Hard to say anything definitive. Having said all that, I think a line around -10.5 range is about right.

If San Diego State starts giving the Cal D problems, then anything can happen in the game.

I do think Cal wins going away.

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Did you ever think we may have not been motivated with FCS Grambling State and if Sonny had left Goff in we might have scored 125 points or more?

I NEVER bet on Cal - well, I don't gamble, except when I drive the 405 Fwy..Not even "fun" bets with friends - Do I sound like a traditional Cal fan or what? From what I've read, we should beat SD State by at least 10+..come on - we put 40+ on Oregon last year. Since this is going to be my first game at CMS this year, I would like to see some offensive/defensive "fireworks" by the Bears and be able to relax for a change in the 4th quarter...

bar20;842537633 said:

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Did you ever think we may have not been motivated with FCS Grambling State and if Sonny had left Goff in we might have scored 125 points or more?

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If you read my posts, you would know I am close to a sunshine pumper. However this is a gambling thread. I am just giving reasons why the line is where it is. No matter what the outcome is watch the line and see If I am right that it's going to be around 10.5.

UCD = UC Davis

USD = University of San Diego. SDSU played USD.

72CalBear;842537638 said:

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I NEVER bet on Cal - well, I don't gamble, except when I drive the 405 Fwy..Not even "fun" bets with friends - Do I sound like a traditional Cal fan or what? From what I've read, we should beat SD State by at least 10+..come on - we put 40+ on Oregon last year. Since this is going to be my first game at CMS this year, I would like to see some offensive/defensive "fireworks" by the Bears and be able to relax for a change in the 4th quarter...

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WARNING RANT COMING: (my strong personal opinion)

Let's all agree on this!
[FONT=Century Gothic][SIZE=4] NEVER EVER MAKE A SPORTS BET ON A GAME YOU ALREADY CARE ABOUT![/SIZE][/FONT]

the reason to bet sports is to make a game you didn't care about more interesting
or if you have some legit inside info.

Betting on games you have an emotional interest in is plain ol stupid.

72CalBear;842537638 said:

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I NEVER bet on Cal - well, I don't gamble, except when I drive the 405 Fwy..Not even "fun" bets with friends - Do I sound like a traditional Cal fan or what? From what I've read, we should beat SD State by at least 10+..come on - we put 40+ on Oregon last year. Since this is going to be my first game at CMS this year, I would like to see some offensive/defensive "fireworks" by the Bears and be able to relax for a change in the 4th quarter...

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You should've went to the Grambling game. Exactly what you were looking for, AND they threw in a GREAT halftime show as icing. The stadium was packed (none of the home games in my section ever felt that tight!).

calfanz;842537676 said:

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WARNING RANT COMING: (my strong personal opinion)

Let's all agree on this!
[FONT=Century Gothic][SIZE=4] NEVER EVER MAKE A SPORTS BET ON A GAME YOU ALREADY CARE ABOUT![/SIZE][/FONT]

the reason to bet sports is to make a game you didn't care about more interesting
or if you have some legit inside info.

Betting on games you have an emotional interest in is plain ol stupid.

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I pretty much agree but who amongst us is trying to be smart anyway.
We're fans after all.

And there is one exception: You say that it makes sense to bet if you have inside information. The most likely team would be the team you care about. For example, I have much more inside information on Cal than I do any other team so I can be more accurate. That does not mean I bet on Cal, but I have been tempted. And there are times when I recommend betting on Cal games.

I suspect Cal will get a good line vs. Texas, for example and that may be a good one. I also think Utah is over-rated and I'm sure I'm one of the few that thinks so. So I am anticipating a good line there as well.