I've seen lots of confusion about this so decided to look into it myself. There are 80 bowl slots this year, and currently 75 teams have a 6-6 record or better. That leaves us with 5 spots to contend with.

South Alabama is 5-6 and still has to play one more game. If they win, they take a slot. Otherwise they lose the APR tiebreaker to us.

Louisiana Monroe (4-7) and Louisiana Lafayette (5-6) play next week. Whoever wins will take a slot (Monroe via APR tiebreaker, Lafayette by getting a 6th win).

Additionally, 5 teams have a better multi-year APR than we do (ours is 960), so they would get preference over us. These teams are: North Texas, Texas, Hawaii, Mississippi State, Northern Illinois

That means, there are two possible ways for us to get a bowl bid:
[LIST=1]

South Alabama loses and 2 teams decline their bowl invite

South Alabama wins and 3 teams decline their bowl invite

djnoblin;842768639 said:

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I've seen lots of confusion about this so decided to look into it myself. There are 80 bowl slots this year, and currently 75 teams have a 6-6 record or better. That leaves us with 5 spots to contend with.

South Alabama is 5-6 and still has to play one more game. If they win, they take a slot. Otherwise they lose the APR tiebreaker to us.

Louisiana Monroe (4-7) and Louisiana Lafayette (5-6) play next week. Whoever wins will take a slot (Monroe via APR tiebreaker, Lafayette by getting a 6th win).

Additionally, 5 teams have a better multi-year APR than we do (ours is 960), so they would get preference over us. These teams are: North Texas, Texas, Hawaii, Mississippi State, Northern Illinois

That means, there are two possible ways for us to get a bowl bid:
[LIST=1]

South Alabama loses and 2 teams decline their bowl invite

South Alabama wins and 3 teams decline their bowl invite

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Texas may decline don't see any others following suit....unless there is a 6-6 wildcard that declines like Baylor for example.

djnoblin;842768639 said:

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I've seen lots of confusion about this so decided to look into it myself. There are 80 bowl slots this year, and currently 75 teams have a 6-6 record or better. That leaves us with 5 spots to contend with.

South Alabama is 5-6 and still has to play one more game. If they win, they take a slot. Otherwise they lose the APR tiebreaker to us.

Louisiana Monroe (4-7) and Louisiana Lafayette (5-6) play next week. Whoever wins will take a slot (Monroe via APR tiebreaker, Lafayette by getting a 6th win).

Additionally, 5 teams have a better multi-year APR than we do (ours is 960), so they would get preference over us. These teams are: North Texas, Texas, Hawaii, Mississippi State, Northern Illinois

That means, there are two possible ways for us to get a bowl bid:
[LIST=1]

South Alabama loses and 2 teams decline their bowl invite

South Alabama wins and 3 teams decline their bowl invite

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South Alabama plays at home against New Mexico State next week. Of course anything could happen. But per Sagarin, though not yet adjusted for this week (South Alabama lost by 7, NMSU by much more), and home field advantage, South Alabama will be a double-digit favorite. So I'm guessing your second scenario would be in effect, with 3 teams needing to decline.

Wonder who might decline. Texas? Baylor? Anyone else?

Although no one would want to decline, the fact is for many teams a bowl it is a money-losing proposition. It's possible some teams may decline because they simply can't afford it.

http://www.toledoblade.com/sports/2013/12/22/Bowl-games-a-win-lose-situation.html

Quote:

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A postseason that features 35 bowl games provides little direct financial reward for success — and for Mid-American Conference schools like Toledo and Bowling Green State University, it’s often punitive.

Conferences and schools ate nearly $21 million in tickets last year, according to USA Today.

OSU athletic director Gene Smith called the ticket guarantees “a hard business model that we keep fighting.”

His department is just one of dozens nationally struggling to unload their massive allotments to far-flung destinations.

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Hawaii is already counted in the 75 teams.

Texas just fired their coach.....so possible. Baylor lost their last 4 games and the interim coach is gone...less likely but not outside the realm. South Alabama has only 3 FBS wins...the problem is that NMSU is an awful team but I'd say that NMSU beating South Alabama is far more likely than 3 teams declining bowl berths.

Correct now they have 6 wins, but that makes them team #76. Here's the full list. Hope the formatting works on this:

# Teams Win Loss
1 Western Michigan 12 1
2 Alabama 12 1
3 Clemson 11 1
4 Ohio State 11 1
5 Washington 11 1
6 South Florida 10 2
7 Penn State 10 2
8 Michigan 10 2
9 Wisconsin 10 2
10 Boise State 10 2
11 Colorado 10 2
12 Navy 9 2
13 Oklahoma 9 2
14 Oklahoma State 9 2
15 West Virginia 9 2
16 Troy 9 2
17 Louisville 9 3
18 Florida State 9 3
19 Virginia Tech 9 3
20 Temple 9 3
21 Tulsa 9 3
22 Houston 9 3
23 Nebraska 9 3
24 Old Dominion 9 3
25 Western Kentucky 9 3
26 Toledo 9 3
27 Air Force 9 3
28 San Diego State 9 3
29 Stanford 9 3
30 USC 9 3
31 Appalachian State 9 3
32 Florida 8 3
33 Miami (FL) 8 4
34 North Carolina 8 4
35 Pittsburgh 8 4
36 Georgia Tech 8 4
37 Memphis 8 4
38 Iowa 8 4
39 Minnesota 8 4
40 Middle Tennessee 8 4
41 Louisiana Tech 8 4
42 Brigham Young 8 4
43 Ohio 8 4
44 New Mexico 8 4
45 Wyoming 8 4
46 Washington State 8 4
47 Utah 8 4
48 Auburn 8 4
49 Texas A&M 8 4
50 Tennessee 8 4
51 Kansas State 7 4
52 LSU 7 4
53 Idaho 7 4
54 Eastern Michigan 7 5
55 Colorado State 7 5
56 Arkansas 7 5
57 Georgia 7 5
58 Kentucky 7 5
59 TCU 6 5
60 Baylor 6 5
61 Army 6 5
62 Arkansas State 6 5
63 North Carolina State 6 6
64 Wake Forest 6 6
65 Boston College 6 6
66 UCF 6 6
67 Indiana 6 6
68 Maryland 6 6
69 Northwestern 6 6
70 UTSA 6 6
71 Southern Miss 6 6
72 Central Michigan 6 6
73 Miami (OH) 6 6
74 South Carolina 6 6
75 Vanderbilt 6 6
76 North Texas 5 7
77 Texas 5 7
78 Hawaii 5 7
79 Mississippi State 5 7
80 Northern Illinois 5 7
81 Louisiana-Monroe 4 7
82 California 5 7
83 Arizona State 5 7
84 Ole Miss 5 7
85 Louisiana-Lafayette 5 6
86 Nevada 5 7
87 South Alabama 5 6
88 Akron 5 7
89 Southern Methodist 5 7
90 Texas Tech 5 7
91 Georgia Southern 4 7

Thanks for going through this. Doesn't look great.

Basically pack it in boys. It would have been nice, but it's hard to complain about being left out at 5-7.

Texas is not going bowling, they are hiring a new staff. Baylor is poison right now and no bowl committee wants any part of them.

South Alabama played two FCS teams, not sure if a 5-6 team gets preference over a 5-7

NeverOddOrEven;842768676 said:

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South Alabama played two FCS teams, not sure if a 5-6 team gets preference over a 5-7

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Yeah only 1 FCS victory can count to bowl eligibility, a 6-6 team with 2 FCS wins is on par with a 5-7 team with 1 FCS win. Not sure 5-7, only 3 of them FBS, means anything.

Strykur;842768677 said:

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Yeah only 1 FCS victory can count to bowl eligibility, a 6-6 team with 2 FCS wins is on par with a 5-7 team with 1 FCS win. Not sure 5-7, only 3 of them FBS, means anything.

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Here is your answer

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2016/11/south_alabama_bowl_waiver_appr.html

djnoblin;842768653 said:

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Correct now they have 6 wins, but that makes them team #76. Here's the full list. Hope the formatting works on this:

# Teams Win Loss
1 Western Michigan 12 1
2 Alabama 12 1
3 Clemson 11 1
4 Ohio State 11 1
5 Washington 11 1
6 South Florida 10 2
7 Penn State 10 2
8 Michigan 10 2
9 Wisconsin 10 2
10 Boise State 10 2
11 Colorado 10 2
12 Navy 9 2
13 Oklahoma 9 2
14 Oklahoma State 9 2
15 West Virginia 9 2
16 Troy 9 2
17 Louisville 9 3
18 Florida State 9 3
19 Virginia Tech 9 3
20 Temple 9 3
21 Tulsa 9 3
22 Houston 9 3
23 Nebraska 9 3
24 Old Dominion 9 3
25 Western Kentucky 9 3
26 Toledo 9 3
27 Air Force 9 3
28 San Diego State 9 3
29 Stanford 9 3
30 USC 9 3
31 Appalachian State 9 3
32 Florida 8 3
33 Miami (FL) 8 4
34 North Carolina 8 4
35 Pittsburgh 8 4
36 Georgia Tech 8 4
37 Memphis 8 4
38 Iowa 8 4
39 Minnesota 8 4
40 Middle Tennessee 8 4
41 Louisiana Tech 8 4
42 Brigham Young 8 4
43 Ohio 8 4
44 New Mexico 8 4
45 Wyoming 8 4
46 Washington State 8 4
47 Utah 8 4
48 Auburn 8 4
49 Texas A&M 8 4
50 Tennessee 8 4
51 Kansas State 7 4
52 LSU 7 4
53 Idaho 7 4
54 Eastern Michigan 7 5
55 Colorado State 7 5
56 Arkansas 7 5
57 Georgia 7 5
58 Kentucky 7 5
59 TCU 6 5
60 Baylor 6 5
61 Army 6 5
62 Arkansas State 6 5
63 North Carolina State 6 6
64 Wake Forest 6 6
65 Boston College 6 6
66 UCF 6 6
67 Indiana 6 6
68 Maryland 6 6
69 Northwestern 6 6
70 UTSA 6 6
71 Southern Miss 6 6
72 Central Michigan 6 6
73 Miami (OH) 6 6
74 South Carolina 6 6
75 Vanderbilt 6 6
76 North Texas 5 7
77 Texas 5 7
78 Hawaii 5 7
79 Mississippi State 5 7
80 Northern Illinois 5 7
81 Louisiana-Monroe 4 7
82 California 5 7
83 Arizona State 5 7
84 Ole Miss 5 7
85 Louisiana-Lafayette 5 6
86 Nevada 5 7
87 South Alabama 5 6
88 Akron 5 7
89 Southern Methodist 5 7
90 Texas Tech 5 7
91 Georgia Southern 4 7

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40 bowls is ridiculous. Understand conference championship games come into play, but teams that aren't at least 7-5 shouldn't be playing in bowls. Looks like at least 10 bowls too many. A team that wins a bowl game and still has a losing record is absurd.

Understand the historical significance of the NIT, but the 2 (or 3?) wannabe NIT tournaments are also BS.

djnoblin;842768639 said:

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I've seen lots of confusion about this so ...

That means, there are two possible ways for us to get a bowl bid:
[LIST=1]

South Alabama loses and 2 teams decline their bowl invite

South Alabama wins and 3 teams decline their bowl invite

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This looks accurate and confirmed by ESPN. http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0594538452557500962-4

Assume no bowl, and shortened time to develop the next Bear Raid QB.

Teams with losing records should be barred from bowls. I'm for going with FCS schools with winning records before loser FBS schools.

Don'tDance;842768731 said:

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This looks accurate and confirmed by ESPN. http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0594538452557500962-4

Assume no bowl, and shortened time to develop the next Bear Raid QB.

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Per the link above:
[INDENT]California's bowl hopes are still not dead, but it's not looking good for the Golden Bears. After Saturday's results, there are 76 bowl-eligible teams for 80 spots and two five-wins teams, Louisiana Lafayette and South Alabama, play again next week. Because there will not be enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all the bowls, like last year, the vacancies will be filled by 5-7 teams prioritized by their multi-year APR scores. Currently, Cal (APR 960) ranks No. 5 behind North Texas (984), Texas (971), Mississippi State (971) and Northern Illinois (970). Texas isn't expected to accept an invitation, but Cal will also be behind whoever wins the game between Louisiana Lafayette (would become bowl eligible) and Louisiana Monroe (would be 5-7, APR 967). Even if South Alabama is upset by New Mexico State next week, Cal would still two teams, including Texas, to decline their invitation.[/INDENT]

People suggested elsewhere that Baylor could be one of those teams. That would mean yet another would need to decline. Hmmm.
So, if I read this correctly, we are behind:

South Alabama: need them to lose
Texas: need them to decline
Baylor: need them to decline
other: need them to decline

we need 4 straight dominoes to fall? Is that right?

I believe Army also has 2 FCS wins and needs to beat Navy to become eligible.

FrankBear21;842768669 said:

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Basically pack it in boys. It would have been nice, but it's hard to complain about being left out at 5-7.

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my friends and i approached last night as our bowl game. It was great fun. A great way to end the season.

concordtom;842768844 said:

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People suggested elsewhere that Baylor could be one of those teams. That would mean yet another would need to decline. Hmmm.
So, if I read this correctly, we are behind:

South Alabama: need them to lose
Texas: need them to decline
Baylor: need them to decline
other: need them to decline

we need 4 straight dominoes to fall? Is that right?

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No, two teams to decline including Texas. So, only 3 dominos to fall...
one of which has already fallen. We just need South Alabama to lose, and Baylor to decline.

It seems to me some Baylor fans want to pass on the bowl, as the current caretaker coaching staff have thrown in the towel. Others want to reward the players.

heech;842768862 said:

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No, two teams to decline including Texas. So, only 3 dominos to fall...
one of which has already fallen. We just need South Alabama to lose, and Baylor to decline.

It seems to me some Baylor fans want to pass on the bowl, as the current caretaker coaching staff have thrown in the towel. Others want to reward the players.

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Any of the G5 teams could also decline if the cost-benefit of going to a bowl isn't good enough. I think that's what happened to Sonny at La Tech when he became bowl eligible but he declined because they needed a more profitable bid to make it worth it.

South Alabama has a 67% chance of winning that game. Set espn on i phone to notify me. The game will be broadcast on Espn 3 with Rod Gilmour doing the commentary😭😭10 am.

Eat your pregame meal,Digest the Alabama victory and proceed to the Haas pavillion to watch Cal destroy Alcorn State.

BearDevil;842768729 said:

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Understand the historical significance of the NIT, but the 2 (or 3?) wannabe NIT tournaments are also BS.

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Those are even worse than the extra bowls. I'd imagine losing college BB teams are less fired up to play in those tournaments than a 5-7 college FB team would be about a bowl.

We screwed ourselves when we lost to SDS, ASU and OSU. This team could've been 7-5, or EASILY 6-6.

Big C_Cal;842768901 said:

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We screwed ourselves when we lost to SDS, ASU and OSU. This team could've been 7-5, or EASILY 6-6.

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Yep

upsetof86;842768906 said:

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Yep

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This season went pretty much as I expected - except I had us beating SDSU and OSU on the road - but not ASU. I expected 8-5 with a Bowl win. The two games that got us were the SDSU and OSU games. We had NO BUSINESS losing to those two teams. No shame is losing to SC or Wazzu on the road or losing to Furd or UW. Even losing to ASU on the road was not a big surprise. The other two losses were inexcusable.

upsetof86;842768906 said:

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Yep

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Yeah, maybe even better with a healthy Hansen, Enwere, Rubenzer, and Allensworth. What I do like, is that it was trial by fire for some second and third tier players who showed glimpses, and the young D line might just be better next year. But get us some All American JC linebackers please!

txwharfrat;842768911 said:

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This season went pretty much as I expected - except I had us beating SDSU and OSU on the road - but not ASU. I expected 8-5 with a Bowl win. The two games that got us were the SDSU and OSU games. We had NO BUSINESS losing to those two teams. No shame is losing to SC or Wazzu on the road or losing to Furd or UW. Even losing to ASU on the road was not a big surprise. The other two losses were inexcusable.

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Definitely spaced out team on both days. Yes I still hated that Australia "gimmick" trip I blame that vs SDSU. Add in the bye before right after. How much non football time can we stand??? Byes don't help early in the season. But we're broke so whatever we take the money. It cost us bowl money on the back end so there enjoy the pictures of kangaroos. (Bitching directed at whoever planned that boondoggle)

And Granted one can argue defensively we took 97 snaps the prior week before OSU and Webb hurt his hand but come on we run we control clock we scrap we should have won both. Very frustrating very very frustrating.

Not an Aztec fan; their alumni are very smug, but Cal's seems to always struggle against a team that put up incredible rushing numbers. Pumphrey rushed for three touchdowns, a career-high 281 yards. Cal had just about the worst rushing defense in the country and Pumphrey by himself rushed for more than others Cal opponents averaged. Rushing offenses seem to be the best defense against the Bear Raid; limit the possessions. SDSU worn down during the season and just got thumped by a Colorado State team that Cal would probably beat.
Maybe take a clue from the SEC and schedule some OOC games later in the season when those teams suffer from lack of depth. Of Course the PAC12 exempts USC and Stanford, but maybe other PAC12 schools should be able to schedule OOC games after the fourth week.

txwharfrat;842768911 said:

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This season went pretty much as I expected - except I had us beating SDSU and OSU on the road - but not ASU. I expected 8-5 with a Bowl win. The two games that got us were the SDSU and OSU games. We had NO BUSINESS losing to those two teams. No shame is losing to SC or Wazzu on the road or losing to Furd or UW. Even losing to ASU on the road was not a big surprise. The other two losses were inexcusable.

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sp4149;842768990 said:

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Not an Aztec fan; their alumni are very smug, but Cal's seems to always struggle against a team that put up incredible rushing numbers. Pumphrey rushed for three touchdowns, a career-high 281 yards. Cal had just about the worst rushing defense in the country and Pumphrey by himself rushed for more than others Cal opponents averaged. Rushing offenses seem to be the best defense against the Bear Raid; limit the possessions. SDSU worn down during the season and just got thumped by a Colorado State team that Cal would probably beat.
Maybe take a clue from the SEC and schedule some OOC games later in the season when those teams suffer from lack of depth. Of Course the PAC12 exempts USC and Stanford, but maybe other PAC12 schools should be able to schedule OOC games after the fourth week.

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Scheduling strategy is key. We have to schedule teams with depth, strength and athleticism early. We can't do that with Furd. We need to do that with $C. Our win in 2003 was in October. We usually schedule them in mid November where they seem to have a second wind and we get thumped.

@Djnoblin -- did you account for those that have 5 or 6 wins with 2 FCS victories? Could that make a difference? Like @neveroddoreven said South AL has 2 FCS wins in their count, so even if they get to 6 wins, only 5 of them would count and we have a better APR than them, correct?

59bear;842768846 said:

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I believe Army also has 2 FCS wins and needs to beat Navy to become eligible.

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That ain't going to happen!

KoreAmBear;842769007 said:

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@Djnoblin -- did you account for those that have 5 or 6 wins with 2 FCS victories? Could that make a difference? Like @neveroddoreven said South AL has 2 FCS wins in their count, so even if they get to 6 wins, only 5 of them would count and we have a better APR than them, correct?

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Yes both S Alabama and army have waivers from NCAA. Army is already in and S Alabama needs to win next week.

KoreAmBear;842768998 said:

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Scheduling strategy is key. We have to schedule teams with depth, strength and athleticism early. We can't do that with Furd. We need to do that with $C. Our win in 2003 was in October. We usually schedule them in mid November where they seem to have a second wind and we get thumped.

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We need to schedule SC early before whoever is their coach figures out that he has the best talent on the field each week and just has to get out of the way and not F them up

"Back in my day..." we were 7-4 and didn't get dick...how times change. Let's hope we get a "participation trophy" bowl...