Stadium + debt, etc: What SHOULD we have done?

10,964 Views | 109 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by dajo9
Wags
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okaydo;842864128 said:

It was almost exactly 20 years ago -- Friday, October 24, 1997 -- that UC Berkeley held a press conference to announce that 57 buildings were seismically poor or very poor. Officials found that Memorial Stadium was "poor" and that it would cost $14 million to fix.

[I mean, what kind of retrofit can you actually get for $14 million/$18 million?

And how long do you put off doing a proper retrofit? 10? 20 years? 50 years? How long can you kick the can down the road?


Big C_Cal;842864005 said:

When you say "the crap way they handled the stadium", the implication is that, even with what they knew ten years ago, they should've done it differently. To what extent were we the victims of bad luck (double whammy of economic + football downturn) and to what extent was it poor decision-making?




HOW DID WE GET HERE YOU ASK???

John Cummins of the Center for Studies in Higher Education prepared this white paper on the history of the Memorial Stadium retrofit and the SAHC:

A CAUTIONARY ANALYSIS OF A BILLION DOLLAR ATHLETIC EXPENDITURE

http://escholarship.org/uc/item/9q3349tt#page-4

"This paper is a description and analysis of the history of the renovation of Memorial Stadium and the building of the Barclay Simpson Student Athlete High Performance Center (SAHPC) on the Berkeley campus, showing how incremental changes over time result in a much riskier and financially less viable project than originally anticipated. It describes the decision making process, the role of various constituent groups including senior administrators and the UC Regents, faculty, community members, and local and state government officials, donors, and protesters. It includes the legal challenges and financial implications of the most expensive intercollegiate athletics capital project in the Nation totaling $474 million. Taking into account debt servicing over time, the total expenditures could approach more than $1 Billion."
Wags
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The original SAHPC cost was $125 million, first unveiled at a press conference in February and November of 2005.

This is when the campus unveiled the SCIP project. All funded privately with half the money already raised; the latter turning out later to be exaggerated.

"How to pay for both the SAHPC and the Stadium, and determining the amounts of donations received for that purpose were contentious. In casual conversation among senior administrators, a figure of $85 million was often cited as the amount of money raised for the SAHPC as early as 2006. Vice Chancellor Frank Yeary, who had taken over responsibility for athletics after Brostrom left campus and became Senior Vice President for Administration for the Office of the UC President, cited that identical figure to Cummins in 2010. The Great Recession of 2008, the lawsuits and the lack of a tangible facility explained the paucity of giving over that period of time.

A senior budget officer under Brostrom provided Birgeneau with a more accurate set of numbers on October 11, 2006 in preparation for the Regents Item approving the financing for the SAHPC. “At the moment Athletics has a total of $76,498,000 in gifts available for the project consisting of $9,000,000 of cash in hand, $34,798,000 in bankable pledges and $32,000,000 in pledges in process.”4 Virtually identical figures are used in the Action Item to members of the Regents Committee on Grounds and Buildings dated November 14, 2006, under the section entitled “Financial Feasibility.” The item also states that an additional $35,450,000 must be raised through gifts. The total project cost for SAHPC at that time was $111,948,000.
Wags
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"On September 18, 2007, the campus requested and the Regents approved the use of external financing in the amount of $100,000,000 and $17,000,000 from gifts. In the item labeled GB2, page 9, under the heading “Long Term External Financing,” the following status of the gift campaign is given. The numbers, provided by the campus changed dramatically (see Table 1).

Whereas Gifts in Hand, eleven months earlier was $9,000,000, it was now reported as $1,300,000; Gifts Pledged, ten months earlier, was $34,798,000, it was now reported as $6,500,000; Gifts Pledges to be Confirmed, ten months earlier, was $32,700,000, it was now reported as $60,200,000. Amazingly, no explanation is given for these widely varying numbers nor does it appear that the Regents questioned them. Obviously the numbers were a red flag with regard to the likely success of the fund raising. Pledging football revenues as a back-up source of funding also seemed suspect.

The athletics budget had long experienced substantial deficits. Football was the major revenue provider for the entire athletic program. If football revenues had to be used at some point to cover the debt, how could that be done quickly?

The campus anticipates this problem in the item by saying that, should the fund raising fall short, it will return to the Regents to pledge alternative fund sources in addition to the gross football revenues. In essence, what this really meant was that the campus was back stopping any shortfall in revenues from football to pay off the debt. That shortfall would be covered by central campus funds that could otherwise be used for academic purposes."
Wags
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"In February 2009, the campus appeared again before the Regents seeking another budget augmentation for the High Performance Center. The lawsuits, escalating costs associated with the delay, security costs related to the tree sitters, a poor initial estimate prepared by URS, the outside project anagement firm, and project changes necessitated an augmentation of $35.6 million.

The cost of the SAHPC now totaled $153 million. Of that amount, only $17 million was covered through gifts with the remaining amount of $136 million debt financed. These numbers change by 2012. By then, the University issued revenue bonds covering almost $126 million with the remaining $27 million covered by gifts (Fuchs, et. al., 2013, p. 3). Football revenue was pledged as the source for the repayment of that debt. The problems with using this source for the repayment of the debt were discussed above. The Regents item (GB1A) then concludes with this paragraph:

The change in the pledge and source of payment for external financing (i.e., football revenues alone) completely decouples the external financing from any fundraising activities (except for the $17 million of gifts dedicated to the project). This change is part of a plan, unrelated to the financing of the SAHPC or any other project to develop a long-term and stable funding source for programs through the expansion of funds functioning as an endowment (FFE). To achieve this goal, it is important that the FFE balance and income be available for use for a wide range of expenditures. (Emphasis added by author) The FFE will be created through unrestricted gifts or gifts with very limited restrictions matching the purpose of the FFE. Gifts tied to the construction of the SAHPC or other capital projects will not be included in the FFE.

This statement is important because the campus administration is now anticipating drawing down on the principal as well as the income from the FFE. University policy does not permit this to occur until five years after the creation of the fund. In 2012, Birgeneau sought an exception to the policy and Yudof approved it. This of course heightens the risk even further."
Wags
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"In September 2009, the campus returned to the Regents for funding approval of the seismic retrofit and upgrade of Memorial Stadium. This time, the campus sought and the Regents approved a staggering sum to be debt financed of $321 million.

Approximately $200 million of that amount dealt with the seismic upgrading, the remainder with amenities such as the enhanced facilities for donors that would help generate revenue to cover the debt.

In that same month, Brostrom transitioned to Executive Vice President - Business Operations under then President Mark Yudof.5 He and Richard Blum were obviously in key positions to influence the Regents to go forward with the financing plan. Repayment on the debt would not be covered just by football revenues but rather by athletics revenues, i.e., all revenues of the intercollegiate athletics department. Vice Chancellor Frank Yeary, Brostrom’s successor at Berkeley and formerly head of Global Acquisitions and Mergers for Citibank, discovered that the IRS would not permit a direct quid quo pro arrangement in an arbitrage financing scheme, i.e., football was the beneficiary of the new stadium and also the revenue source for the debt financing through ticket sales and other means."
Wags
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"The athletics department provided a larger financial umbrella to satisfy the tax code. In essence, it made no difference.

Revenue sources in addition to fundraising would be funneled through the athletic department. Those revenue sources would be used to service the debt, directly and through earnings generated through the FFE. The largest source of new revenue to cover the debt was a seat licensing program for football games at Memorial Stadium, referred to as an Endowment Seating Program (ESP).

Brostrom had reported in the July, 2009 Regents meeting that ESP sales of approximately 3000 seats were already underway and highly successful with letters of intent, i.e., pledges in process, for 63% of the seats, generating $160 million. That number represents the sum of the total purchase price for those seats. Many of those seats would be purchased through annual ayments with no binding commitment. Thus, the actual amounts of money in the FFE would be substantially less."
Wags
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"As mentioned earlier in this paper, Intercollegiate Athletics had a long track record of accumulating budget deficits, and getting away with it with very little consequence, thus normalizing a pattern of deviant behavior.

No other unit on campus would have received such an accommodation for such a long period of time. It was highly unlikely that athletics would be able to pay the interest-only debt from its own revenues, let alone the principal. Why then indicate that in the Regents item? Was this a palliative for the faculty opponents who raised serious questions about the viability of the financing? When the University sells revenue bonds on the open market, they are often bundled with bonds for other capital projects. The buyers of the bonds have little knowledge about the specifics of how a particular campus intends to pay them off. The bond rating of the selling agency, i.e., the University of California, is based on several factors including overall management and governance, state support and its financial strength. The ability to raise tuition is singularly important in this context. Very few faculty, staff, members of the public or even perhaps some Regents understand the arcane details of bond financing, another example of structural secrecy.
Wags
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"The Great Recession of 2008 had an enormous impact on the University of California. By 2014, the per student contribution from the State to UC had been cut in half. Despite a $140 million State contribution in 2014, the University of California system was still $460 million below its 2008 funding level from the State. (The Los Angeles Times Editorial Board, 2014)

Cost cutting, layoffs and staff reductions, salary cuts and tuition increases gave rise to student protests and a major decline in faculty and staff morale. The assumption of such a large amount of debt for athletics and other projects could not have come at a worse time. A dramatic drop in discretionary spending nationally could affect the willingness of individuals to buy seat licenses at anywhere from $40,000 to $225,000. The faculty were already alarmed about subsidies and unpaid loans from the central campus to the athletics department and the debt only added fuel to the fire. As mentioned above, on November 5, 2009, the Academic Senate passed a resolution urging the Chancellor to end immediately all such loans and subsidies. At that Senate meeting, and less than two months after the Regents approved the Stadium financing, Brostrom stated the following about the seat licensing program:



"In order for the construction project to be fully self-supporting Intercollegiate Athletics needs to sell 75% of the seats that are included in the ESP program. As per current pledges and commitments, IA will have sold 70% of the inventory by the end of this calendar year. Conservative estimates suggest that IA will have little trouble selling another 5%---about 150 seats--- of the inventory before construction is scheduled to start in January 2011. (One indication of the program’s success to date is the fact that IA initially projected the 70% mark would not be reached until June 2010.) If, for some reason, IA is unable to sell 75% of the seats prior to the start of construction, IA will be ready to further evaluate the size and scope of its program in order to meet its debt obligations without any additional reliance on revenues or unds from the campus."

(Brostrom, undated)
Wags
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"As will be described below (p.14 following), senior administrators were not presenting accurate information on the number of seats sold. When construction began in December 2010, the number of seats sold was far less than 75%.

Only 44% actually were sold as of June 30, 2011.

The reporting line of athletics changed to Vice Chancellor Frank Yeary with Brostrom’s departure and then from him to Vice Chancellor John Wilton, newly hired in January 2011.

There is no indication that athletics did any further evaluation of seat sales before construction began. Redoing the finance model fell to Wilton. Changes in leadership of this kind, over relatively short periods of time, introduce another risk factor. Yeary and Wilton had no previous experience in higher education administration let alone intercollegiate athletics. Transitions of this kind are difficult, across the board, in any complex organization, and it is not unusual for attention to pressing matters at hand to slow as the organization adjusts.

The administration believed it was too far along in the project to pull back and reevaluate. They had to proceed with the Memorial Stadium work or play elsewhere indefinitely."
Wags
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In other words..... People lied.

Thats how we got here.
Goobear
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Sunk Cost People. Bitterness is not going to fix this. It's a shame that a school like Cal full with smart people and a top business school cannot make better decisions initially and not fix it now. Makes me wonder how good we really are....
Nofado
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Someone in MA could help us out.

#PowerBall
CaliforniaEternal
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philbert;842864040 said:

Was this option presented and/or available when the stadium was redone? If it was an option and not used, I'd like to know why.


I wasn't involved in those discussions but clearly the grid clubs couldn't raise anywhere close to the amount of cash required to pay the construction costs upfront, or otherwise obtain financing for the project.
Wags
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Goobear;842864184 said:

Sunk Cost People. Bitterness is not going to fix this. It's a shame that a school like Cal full with smart people and a top business school cannot make better decisions initially and not fix it now. Makes me wonder how good we really are....


Nathan Brostrom is a Stanford alum.
lol
Wags
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http://www.ucop.edu/finance-office/staff/bios/nathan-brostrom.html
calgo430
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Wags;842864182 said:

In other words..... People lie = blame it on sandy and buh. time to refinance and have a winning football team. time to change some accounting practices. time to find an angel. go bears
Cave Bear
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Wags;842864165 said:

The original SAHPC cost was $125 million, first unveiled at a press conference in February and November of 2005.
This is when the campus unveiled the SCIP project. All funded privately with half the money already raised; the latter turning out later to be exaggerated.

"How to pay for both the SAHPC and the Stadium, and determining the amounts of donations received for that purpose were
contentious. In casual conversation among senior administrators, a figure of $85 million was often cited as the amount of money raised for the SAHPC as early as 2006. Vice Chancellor Frank Yeary, who had taken over responsibility for athletics after Brostrom left campus and became Senior Vice President for Administration for the Office of the UC President, cited that identical figure to Cummins in 2010. The Great Recession of 2008, the lawsuits and the lack of a tangible facility explained the paucity of giving over that period of time.

A senior budget officer under Brostrom provided Birgeneau with a more accurate set of numbers on October 11, 2006 in
preparation for the Regents Item approving the financing for the SAHPC. "At the moment Athletics has a total of $76,498,000 in
gifts available for the project consisting of $9,000,000 of cash in hand, $34,798,000 in bankable pledges and $32,000,000 in
pledges in process."4 Virtually identical figures are used in the Action Item to members of the Regents Committee on Grounds
and Buildings dated November 14, 2006, under the section entitled "Financial Feasibility." The item also states that an additional
$35,450,000 must be raised through gifts. The total project cost for SAHPC at that time was $111,948,000.



I did not know this. Incredible
Cal Junkie
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Bite your tongue! (Former Cal track runner here). Yah - we know things are getting pretty dicey and hope that we find a way to 'save' track at Cal. Very diverse student body with high GPAs, and volunteering for various social causes.

bearloyal;842863963 said:

and track could have been eliminated, which is going to happen anyway.
82gradDLSdad
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Cal Junkie;842864212 said:

Bite your tongue! (Former Cal track runner here). Yah - we know things are getting pretty dicey and hope that we find a way to 'save' track at Cal. Very diverse student body with high GPAs, and volunteering for various social causes.


Cancelling a sport is not the end of the world. Cal cancelled golf, my sport, in 1978, my second year. Arguably it is now one of the most stable sports at Cal. Maybe the weak, tenuous sports get cut and reemerge as stronger, self sustaining ones.
Wags
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82gradDLSdad;842864215 said:

Cancelling a sport is not the end of the world. Cal cancelled golf, my sport, in 1978, my second year. Arguably it is now one of the most stable sports at Cal. Maybe the weak, tenuous sports get cut and reemerge as stronger, self sustaining ones.


I would tend to agree.

However, it is highly doubtful that a sport that has been as uncompetitive as it has at the Pac-12 level over the last decade will be able to re-emerge with self-sustained funding. Aside from one donor who funds 4 scholarships, the program has lacked alums with deep-pockets, let alone anyone who has more than just a casual interest in the Sport. The one's who did, are no longer with us on planet earth.

Cal T&F is the exact opposite of Cal Swimming.
Phantomfan
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Goobear;842864184 said:

Sunk Cost People. Bitterness is not going to fix this. It's a shame that a school like Cal full with smart people and a top business school cannot make better decisions initially and not fix it now. Makes me wonder how good we really are....
The school was smart: put the cost entirely on the Athletics side.Great "business" move for the anti-athletics movement.
Wags
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Phantomfan;842864221 said:

The school was smart: put the cost entirely on the Athletics side.Great "business" move for the anti-athletics movement.


Apparently, there were actually people inside the CAL IAD that raised concerns about the far too optimistic projections of the ESP.

Even Professor Roger Noll of Stanford (an expert on such financing schemes) warned that Cal's approach was much too optimistic. Cal was attempting to raise 3 to 5X as much as the seat licensing programs at TEXAS and MICHIGAN.

Moreover, the [u]actual sales[/u] of the ESP seats licenses turned out to be greatly exaggerated. The paper I cited earlier by John Cummins claims that those numbers were originated in the athletics development office and no one verified them

What a joke!
tommie317
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Obviously it was a scam justified by cunning businessmen and admin to get the deal done. Everyone with a brain knows that
Phantomfan
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okaydo;842864128 said:

It was almost exactly 20 years ago -- Friday, October 24, 1997 -- that UC Berkeley held a press conference to announce that 57 buildings were seismically poor or very poor. Officials found that Memorial Stadium was "poor" and that it would cost $14 million to fix.

http://www.berkeley.edu/news/extras/1997/SAFER/Pages/findings.html




So apparently the preliminary number went up to $18 million the following year.

I haven't dug into the numbers. I'm just guestimating. But I can't imagine a proper retrofit of Memorial Stadium costing $14 million or $18 million ($27 million in today's dollars). Or even double that. Or triple. Or quadruple that.

Even if everything went according to plan, with no treesitters, I can't imagine a stadium retrofit being that low. That seems like a drop in the bucket, especially with what they were trying to accomplish.

I mean, what kind of retrofit can you actually get for $14 million/$18 million?

And how long do you put off doing a proper retrofit? 10? 20 years? 50 years? How long can you kick the can down the road?

It is notable that the 2009-2019 plan shows Campbell Hall as $87.4m (about 500% of the 1997 estimate).

These are very rough estimates.
Phantomfan
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Wags;842864231 said:

Apparently, there were actually people inside the CAL IAD that raised concerns about the far too optimistic projections of the ESP.

Even Professor Roger Noll of Stanford (an expert on such financing schemes) warned that Cal's approach was much too optimistic. Cal was attempting to raise 3 to 5X as much as the seat licensing programs at TEXAS and MICHIGAN.

Moreover, the [U]actual sales[/U] of the ESP seats licenses turned out to be greatly exaggerated. The paper I cited earlier by John Cummins claims that those numbers were originated in the athletics development office and no one verified them

What a joke!


Well, it was going to get done, because it had to get done. The School put its weight behind not paying anything for it because it had sporting attached to it. So, you either do it with a goofy unrealistic plan, or just ignore seismic issues for another several decades because "we cant afford it" and potentially kill 30,000 people.

Of course they were going to make the numbers work. The state and school, for some reason, refused to make a campus building safe.
BearlyCareAnymore
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Big C_Cal;842864005 said:

When you say "the crap way they handled the stadium", the implication is that, even with what they knew ten years ago, they should've done it differently. To what extent were we the victims of bad luck (double whammy of economic + football downturn) and to what extent was it poor decision-making?

With projects like this, I firmly believe in "thinking big". Okay, so it looks like we thought too big. If the economy doesn't go back into the dumper and we start to challenge for conference championships fairly soon, will that go a long ways towards turning the situation around?


Big C - you appear to me to be taking he position that we HAD to spend $450M on a stadium so the only question is whether the way we did it was okay. We didn't have to do that. The university could not afford this expenditure. It certainly can't afford to make $450M decisions without asking if there are cheaper alternatives.

The info Wags posted has good detail but generally:

1. They originally said the project would be fully funded by donations. That was the big argument repeated over and over. When the anti-football faculty argued against the project, the counter over and over was "why do they care? It isn't costing the university a dime." That was either 1) a lie; 2. bullshyte; 3. Just plain incompetently wrong; or 4 all of the above. I supported the stadium on the basis of it not costing the academic side a dime because they said they had he donations. Not that they could get them. They had them. To be clear, I might have supported the university providing some funding. I might have supported the new stadium even it it was the most expensive option as I think it is worth spending SOME more than other options. But because this was supposed to be paid by private sources, no other options were seriously analyzed. They should have been.

2. When they couldn't make claim number 1 anymore, they claimed that it would be paid back through football revenue. How was that supposed to work? Cal's athletic department has never made anything close to the money to pay for the stadium. Frankly, they've rarely made any money at all. Football makes money. And if you were planning to cut every other sport but men's and women's basketball and women's volleyball, the athletic department might have been able to pay a substantial amount toward the debt, but almost assuredly not all of it. That was bullshyte on its face and they knew it.

3. Cal football sucking? Wow, that's never happened before. No way it is reasonable to expect that their plan wouldn't be totally dependent on Cal remaining a top 20 program.

4. Recessions happen.

5. They then went with the ESP boondoggle. ESP is just PSL, but worse. They had all the same issues that Oakland had with PSL's. Treating pledges as commitments and vastly overestimating the amount of actual dollars that would come in. Then exaggerating those numbers. But ESP's were worse than PSL's because Cal fan's were ALREADY paying for ESP's in the form of a donor program that ALREADY gave seating priority based in large part on the amount of donations you gave. So now, they renamed the program ESP and acted like the money that alums paid for ESP's was in no way being diverted from their previous Bear Backer donations. It was all new money instead of a significant portion being existing money recategorized.

6. I'm not going to attempt to explain the financing that I don't fully understand myself, but what I do understand was that they by their own admission came up with "creative" financing that blew up in their faces rather than using standard methods.

The academic side of the house absolutely has a right to be pissed off (just like they would have a right to be pissed off if any other disciplined promised a revenue neutral project and it turned out to cost a billion dollars). Here's the thing. I don't know how capital improvements are treated for other disciplines. However, I know this. Business schools and engineering schools go out and raise money and get lavish new buildings. Anthropology, Art, Sociology, etc. can't raise the money and they stay in their dilapidated buildings or they move into the buildings that the better funded disciplines vacate for their lovely new digs. However they are funded, I think the stadium should be funded in similar fashion. Now if the school wants to build a new science lab or a new stadium, that project should be brought to the school community with a price tag and it should be decided whether that price tag is worth it. Personally, I think general funds should have been allocated to at least some of the stadium (or other alternative). But that wasn't the deal. The deal was that athletics would pay for it. Whether I think that should have been the deal or not, that was the deal. So from a faculty member's perspective, this is an up to $1B reneg. And from the perspective of those that fought the project, it is a $1B reneg that they said all along would happen. I believe the school should have paid the cost of a reasonable retrofit or for a reasonable, earthquake safe alternative. But that wasn't the deal. I think at this point, the campus has to bail out the athletic department, but I don't blame anyone for being pissed.

Imagine my wife comes to me and says "the 1995 Hyundai gave up the ghost. We need a new car. I have my eye on this fully loaded $80K Porsche" I say "geez. we can't afford ANY car right now. I understand you need transportation, but we are going to have to look at how much it would cost to take the bus, or whether we can get a used car, or maybe a cheaper new car, or even a Porsche that isn't fully loaded". And she says "you don't need to do ANY of that analysis. I've researched and there is this thing called selling Amway products. I just work 5 hours a week and it will pay for the whole Porsche. No money from you at all!" "Wow that is great!" Two years later and it's "I'm working 40 hours a week and it isn't paying for half the car. You know, occasionally you drive it too. And even when I drive it, a lot of the time I'm running errands that benefit you or driving the kids. You really should have bought me a car in the first place! I'm using the kids' college fund to pay off the car and I'm quitting." "Well, yes, as I said back then. You need transportation and I was willing to provide it. But you stopped me from finding a reasonable alternative because you wanted the Porsche. What you are doing isn't sustainable, so we will pay it off."

That is basically the athletic department's position.
Cave Bear
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OaktownBear;842864260 said:

Imagine my wife comes to me and says "the 1995 Hyundai gave up the ghost. We need a new car. I have my eye on this fully loaded $80K Porsche" I say "geez. we can't afford ANY car right now. I understand you need transportation, but we are going to have to look at how much it would cost to take the bus, or whether we can get a used car, or maybe a cheaper new car, or even a Porsche that isn't fully loaded". And she says "you don't need to do ANY of that analysis. I've researched and there is this thing called selling Amway products. I just work 5 hours a week and it will pay for the whole Porsche. No money from you at all!" "Wow that is great!" Two years later and it's "I'm working 40 hours a week and it isn't paying for half the car. You know, occasionally you drive it too. And even when I drive it, a lot of the time I'm running errands that benefit you or driving the kids. You really should have bought me a car in the first place! I'm using the kids' college fund to pay off the car and I'm quitting." "Well, yes, as I said back then. You need transportation and I was willing to provide it. But you stopped me from finding a reasonable alternative because you wanted the Porsche. What you are doing isn't sustainable, so we will pay it off."

That is basically the athletic department's position.


Sounds about right to me
Wags
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I bring your attention to Tables 3 and 4 on Pages 19 and 20:

Amount of ESP Seats Sold out of 3,198 offered:

2011: 1782
2012: 1873
2013: 2225
2014: 2014
2015: 1925
2016: 1896


Investment Returns on Endowment:

2013: $6,783,506

2014: $10,285,049

2015: $4,099,035

2016: -$2,678,097


Not good trends.
Wags
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An incredible amount of very poor (rosy) assumptions were made by the Haas Faculty analysis in regards to ESP sales and the FFE, even though they stated that "we are not really qualified to judge" the reasonableness of the projections. (Professors Fuchs, Stanton, and Wallace)

They also were reassured by stating the new administrative Vice Chancellor, John Wilton's commitment to have "... a neutral outside expert evaluate the reasonableness of their stadium revenue assumptions in the near future."

The Haas Faculty Task Force repeated their concerns in their summary as follows:

"We hope that some of this uncertainty will be resolved when IA bring in an outside expert to evaluate their forecasts in the near future, as they have promised."

(Fuchs, 2013, pp. 13-20).

To date, no evaluation has been done.
Wags
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FYI:

The interest rate for the bonds are fairly low, at 3.89% for the SAHPC and 4.25% for the Stadium.

It's a fixed rate for both.

The annual payment for the first 20 years (beginning in 2013) is $18 million.
It is interest only.

Starting in 2032 - 2050, annual payments will increate to $26 - $37 million.
Big C
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OaktownBear;842864260 said:

Big C - you appear to me to be taking he position that we HAD to spend $450M on a stadium so the only question is whether the way we did it was okay. We didn't have to do that. The university could not afford this expenditure. It certainly can't afford to make $450M decisions without asking if there are cheaper alternatives.

The info Wags posted has good detail but generally:

1. They originally said the project would be fully funded by donations. That was the big argument repeated over and over. When the anti-football faculty argued against the project, the counter over and over was "why do they care? It isn't costing the university a dime." That was either 1) a lie; 2. bullshyte; 3. Just plain incompetently wrong; or 4 all of the above. I supported the stadium on the basis of it not costing the academic side a dime because they said they had he donations. Not that they could get them. They had them. To be clear, I might have supported the university providing some funding. I might have supported the new stadium even it it was the most expensive option as I think it is worth spending SOME more than other options. But because this was supposed to be paid by private sources, no other options were seriously analyzed. They should have been.

2. When they couldn't make claim number 1 anymore, they claimed that it would be paid back through football revenue. How was that supposed to work? Cal's athletic department has never made anything close to the money to pay for the stadium. Frankly, they've rarely made any money at all. Football makes money. And if you were planning to cut every other sport but men's and women's basketball and women's volleyball, the athletic department might have been able to pay a substantial amount toward the debt, but almost assuredly not all of it. That was bullshyte on its face and they knew it.

3. Cal football sucking? Wow, that's never happened before. No way it is reasonable to expect that their plan wouldn't be totally dependent on Cal remaining a top 20 program.

4. Recessions happen.

5. They then went with the ESP boondoggle. ESP is just PSL, but worse. They had all the same issues that Oakland had with PSL's. Treating pledges as commitments and vastly overestimating the amount of actual dollars that would come in. Then exaggerating those numbers. But ESP's were worse than PSL's because Cal fan's were ALREADY paying for ESP's in the form of a donor program that ALREADY gave seating priority based in large part on the amount of donations you gave. So now, they renamed the program ESP and acted like the money that alums paid for ESP's was in no way being diverted from their previous Bear Backer donations. It was all new money instead of a significant portion being existing money recategorized.

6. I'm not going to attempt to explain the financing that I don't fully understand myself, but what I do understand was that they by their own admission came up with "creative" financing that blew up in their faces rather than using standard methods.

The academic side of the house absolutely has a right to be pissed off (just like they would have a right to be pissed off if any other disciplined promised a revenue neutral project and it turned out to cost a billion dollars). Here's the thing. I don't know how capital improvements are treated for other disciplines. However, I know this. Business schools and engineering schools go out and raise money and get lavish new buildings. Anthropology, Art, Sociology, etc. can't raise the money and they stay in their dilapidated buildings or they move into the buildings that the better funded disciplines vacate for their lovely new digs. However they are funded, I think the stadium should be funded in similar fashion. Now if the school wants to build a new science lab or a new stadium, that project should be brought to the school community with a price tag and it should be decided whether that price tag is worth it. Personally, I think general funds should have been allocated to at least some of the stadium (or other alternative). But that wasn't the deal. The deal was that athletics would pay for it. Whether I think that should have been the deal or not, that was the deal. So from a faculty member's perspective, this is an up to $1B reneg. And from the perspective of those that fought the project, it is a $1B reneg that they said all along would happen. I believe the school should have paid the cost of a reasonable retrofit or for a reasonable, earthquake safe alternative. But that wasn't the deal. I think at this point, the campus has to bail out the athletic department, but I don't blame anyone for being pissed.

Imagine my wife comes to me and says "the 1995 Hyundai gave up the ghost. We need a new car. I have my eye on this fully loaded $80K Porsche" I say "geez. we can't afford ANY car right now. I understand you need transportation, but we are going to have to look at how much it would cost to take the bus, or whether we can get a used car, or maybe a cheaper new car, or even a Porsche that isn't fully loaded". And she says "you don't need to do ANY of that analysis. I've researched and there is this thing called selling Amway products. I just work 5 hours a week and it will pay for the whole Porsche. No money from you at all!" "Wow that is great!" Two years later and it's "I'm working 40 hours a week and it isn't paying for half the car. You know, occasionally you drive it too. And even when I drive it, a lot of the time I'm running errands that benefit you or driving the kids. You really should have bought me a car in the first place! I'm using the kids' college fund to pay off the car and I'm quitting." "Well, yes, as I said back then. You need transportation and I was willing to provide it. But you stopped me from finding a reasonable alternative because you wanted the Porsche. What you are doing isn't sustainable, so we will pay it off."

That is basically the athletic department's position.


Well, I was more posing the question, rather than starting off with an opinion. I realized something was messed up to cause all this debt. Part of the equation really hit home for me last November, when a buddy of mine invited me to join him in ESP during Big Game and there were TONS of empty seats. I asked him if it was because of the rain and he said, actually, that most were just unsold seats. He then went on to quote the argument about "economic downturn + football downturn". Yes, I know this was more of an explanation of the unsold ESP seats, rather than the debt as a whole.

So this thread has been enlightening for me.

I will say, though, that we had to get the seismic work done and we pretty much had to get the amenities and training facilities upgraded and we did that. I'm not sure what we could've gotten done for 70% of the price. Was that a proposal that was looked at?

I'm sure I could be skewered for this analogy, but when we look at the Great Pyramid nowadays, we don't see the 45,000 Egyptians that worked as slaves, nor the 1532 that died in project accidents*, nor the massive debt incurred. We just see that pyramid... and it is amazing.

That is the way huge public facilities investments work sometimes. It's a good thing to have, but you can't afford it, but you do it anyway. Later, you're glad. Maybe this will force the University to take on some of the IA debt somehow. That would probably be a good thing. Meanwhile, we have increased the chances of eventually having a Top Twenty football program, year in and year out.

My wife drives a Prius now, but I'll think twice when she starts talking about something new.

* made up numbers... never even been to Egypt
BearlyCareAnymore
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Quote:

I will say, though, that we had to get the seismic work done


I preface this by saying I love Memorial and I personally would advocate for a more expensive price tag, but no we didn't "have to" get the seismic work done. There were other options like building a smaller stadium on the Edwards + site that would have been on much more stable ground (and where Memorial's original architect wanted the stadium to go. Or like building on an off campus site. Or like playing in the Colisseum or AT&T. Would those have been worth the savings? Feasible? No savings at all? I don't know because they were never realistically looked at as solutions. And while I and everyone else here might get misty eyed about Memorial, a lot of people who would foot the bill don't, and they had a right to a reasonable analysis.

Quote:

and we pretty much had to get the amenities and training facilities upgraded and we did that.


I preface THIS by saying our facilities were criminally bad. But, no, we didn't "have to" do that. Was it a disadvantage? Absolutely. A $200M disadvantage? That is questionable. Did it make sense to build new earthquake facilities on a fault line in an extremely difficult site? Only if you were basically trying to hitch the wagon to a stadium retrofit. The facilities could have been less expensive. Heck, you could have made them part of a new stadium at Edwards.

I will also say that many academic disciplines have really bad facilities.

Quote:

I'm not sure what we could've gotten done for 70% of the price. Was that a proposal that was looked at?


Good question. Understand, though, the project was hugely more expensive because of the fault line and the requirement to preserve Memorial.
Quote:


I'm sure I could be skewered for this analogy, but when we look at the Great Pyramid nowadays, we don't see the 45,000 Egyptians that worked as slaves, nor the 1532 that died in project accidents*, nor the massive debt incurred. We just see that pyramid... and it is amazing.


Memorial won't be around in 200 years let alone 2000.

Versailles is incredible. Louis XIV looted the people of France to pay for it and well "Apres moi, le deluge"

In the late 1800's, Mad King Ludwig built an incredible, and incredibly expensive castle for his own pleasure. He finished and said "You know what? I'm going to build another EVEN BETTER castle!" His body was found in the lake six weeks later. And people love touring his castle to this day.

You know what the Pyramids and Versailles and Ludwig's castle and Memorial stadium all have in common? 1. I'm happy they exist. 2. I can be so because I didn't have to pay for them. Honestly, I don't think the joy that the Pyramids or Versailles have brought the world are worth the suffering and death many Egyptians and French endured because of them. And at least those people should have had a vote.

Honestly, what you are arguing here is exactly why people hate government today. Spend a whole lot of someone else's money to get something that benefits me. Fact is that if the athletic department had brought the cost of the project to the campus and asked for a vote, it would have crashed and burned. If you want to argue a plan of we need to build it, so do it and figure out the consequences later, how do you argue that it isn't the athletic department that should live with the consequences?
wifeisafurd
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Wags;842864231 said:

Apparently, there were actually people inside the CAL IAD that raised concerns about the far too optimistic projections of the ESP.

Even Professor Roger Noll of Stanford (an expert on such financing schemes) warned that Cal's approach was much too optimistic. Cal was attempting to raise 3 to 5X as much as the seat licensing programs at TEXAS and MICHIGAN.

Moreover, the [u]actual sales[/u] of the ESP seats licenses turned out to be greatly exaggerated. The paper I cited earlier by John Cummins claims that those numbers were originated in the athletics development office and no one verified them

What a joke!


You lose credibility citing Noll because he never actually looked at the numbers yet compelled to comment. Cummings was the arsehole who made many of the decisions and then wrote papers questioning his own f'ing decisions. He also managed to completely botch-up the sexual harassment stuff. Look, there were a lot of bad decisions which I take issue with, but here we are all the same.
Wags
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wifeisafurd;842864390 said:

You lose credibility citing Noll because he never actually looked at the numbers yet compelled to comment. Cummings was the arsehole who made many of the decisions and then wrote papers questioning his own f'ing decisions. He also managed to completely botch-up the sexual harassment stuff. Look, there were a lot of bad decisions which I take issue with, but here we are all the same.


Are you saying that Cal wasnt overly optimistic with their projections that were 3 to 5X more than programs like TEXAS and MICHIGAN?

Thats really the bottom line here, right?
juarezbear
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Wags;842864297 said:

I bring your attention to Tables 3 and 4 on Pages 19 and 20:

Amount of ESP Seats Sold out of 3,198 offered:

2011: 1782
2012: 1873
2013: 2225
2014: 2014
2015: 1925
2016: 1896


Investment Returns on Endowment:

2013: $6,783,506

2014: $10,285,049

2015: $4,099,035

2016: -$2,678,097


Not good trends.


How did they lose money in 2016?
 
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