https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/19/16332762/watchability-fun-football-boring-quality-of-play

For years, I've looked at stats and said, "Wow, quarterbacks are so much more accurate now than they were 20, 30, 40 years ago." College quarterbacks now complete 65-75% of passes, and anything below 60% is awful. Even NFL quarterbacks now routinely complete 65% (last year, Sam Bradford set a new NFL record with 84.4%). This was not remotely true a few decades ago, when anything over 50% was pretty good, and the league leaders were in the low 60s. But this article suggests that while quarterbacks are more accurate because of increased reps (year-round 7-on-7 leagues in particular), the real reason quarterbacks are completing at such a high level is because offenses have gotten very conservative (this is mostly geared to the NFL, mind you). Coaches and quarterbacks would rather throw 3 yards short of the first down and punt than risk an interception down field. As this article suggests, this has actually made football boring.

Quote:

---

We are living in the golden age of failed completions, a statistic as grim as it sounds. Tracked by Football Outsiders, failed completions occur when a team doesn't get 45 percent of the yards it needs on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down. The stat goes back to 1989, and last season Joe Flacco set the record with 144. Nothing encapsulates this era of football as well as the failed completion: allegedly a success, but ultimately a bleak disappointment.

...

Sacks and interceptions hit all-time lows last year, but that just means that quarterbacks are getting rid of the ball quicker and opting for shorter, safer targets. We have reached one of the most frustrating eras in football history. Everything is fine and it doesn't look good.

---

I thought it was an interesting read, and some fans who are older than I am might have an interesting perspective.

Bill Walsh pretty much started this whole thing with the "ball control passing" aspect of the West Coast Offense.

Not only that, but the prevalence of the screen game has boosted completion % as well.

If you look @ the top completion % passers:

Baker Mayfield*
71.93
2014
2017
Oklahoma

Colt Brennan*
70.39
2005
2007
Hawaii

Colt McCoy*
70.33
2006
2009
Texas

Kellen Moore*
69.78
2008
2011
Boise State

Graham Harrell*
69.77
2005
2008
Texas Tech

Brandon Weeden*
69.54
2008
2011
Oklahoma State

Luke Falk*
69.43
2014
2017
Washington State

Case Keenum*
69.36
2007
2011
Houston

Chase Holbrook
69.35
2006
2008
New Mexico State

Seth Doege*
69
2009
2012
Texas Tech

What do you see? 7/10 played in screen/shallow cross heavy Air-Raid systems. I would argue that #1, Baker Mayfield is probably the greatest offender when it comes to this as well.

Leaving Colt Brennan (Run & Shoot), Colt McCoy (Spread), and Kellen Moore (Pro/Spread) as the remaining non Air-Raid guys.

Kellen Moore was probably the greatest pre-snap and post-snap QB of all time, with limited arm talent. Kid threw and completed balls based on an understanding of defenses and anticipation -- was helped with NFL talent @ skill positions -- Martin @ RB, Pettis and Young @ WR.

Colt Brennan is the most accurate passer I have ever seen, period. And he did the majority of his damage on fairly difficult mid-range and long-range vertical throws -- albeit against primarily outmatched defenses. He still did damage against P5 schools like Arizona State / Oregon State / Wisconsin / Washington / Alabama -- he was arguably hung-over / high when he faced Georgia, and that team was entirely outclassed in terms of athleticism.

Colt McCoy was also another great passer in terms of accuracy -- but on a system basis, he essentially ran another air-raid type deal -- don't think I've seen any team run Y-Stick more than that Texas team.

But yeah, its interesting to note our QB's completion % as opposed to the traditional Leach QB -- Tony and Spav had our QB's attempt a significantly greater number of deep-ball throws (which both Jared and Davis excelled at) -- which were not entirely padded by the screen game (although Davis threw more screen balls than Jared did).

Spread formations and the screen game serving as a surrogate run game have created open space and easy completions.

It's actually why Joe Roth's accomplishments are so impressive. As we all know, he played before the West Coast / dink and dunk style of play. If you watch video clips of him on youtube, you see Joe's throws are attacking downfield. Seldom do you see Joe checking down to a back. His passing numbers during a run-oriented time of football are pretty cool.

killa22 said:

---

Not only that, but the prevalence of the screen game has boosted completion % as well.

If you look @ the top completion % passers:

Baker Mayfield*
71.93
2014
2017
Oklahoma

Colt Brennan*
70.39
2005
2007
Hawaii

Colt McCoy*
70.33
2006
2009
Texas

Kellen Moore*
69.78
2008
2011
Boise State

Graham Harrell*
69.77
2005
2008
Texas Tech

Brandon Weeden*
69.54
2008
2011
Oklahoma State

Luke Falk*
69.43
2014
2017
Washington State

Case Keenum*
69.36
2007
2011
Houston

Chase Holbrook
69.35
2006
2008
New Mexico State

Seth Doege*
69
2009
2012
Texas Tech

What do you see? 7/10 played in screen/shallow cross heavy Air-Raid systems. I would argue that #1, Baker Mayfield is probably the greatest offender when it comes to this as well.

Leaving Colt Brennan (Run & Shoot), Colt McCoy (Spread), and Kellen Moore (Pro/Spread) as the remaining non Air-Raid guys.

Kellen Moore was probably the greatest pre-snap and post-snap QB of all time, with limited arm talent. Kid threw and completed balls based on an understanding of defenses and anticipation -- was helped with NFL talent @ skill positions -- Martin @ RB, Pettis and Young @ WR.

Colt Brennan is the most accurate passer I have ever seen, period. And he did the majority of his damage on fairly difficult mid-range and long-range vertical throws -- albeit against primarily outmatched defenses. He still did damage against P5 schools like Arizona State / Oregon State / Wisconsin / Washington / Alabama -- he was arguably hung-over / high when he faced Georgia, and that team was entirely outclassed in terms of athleticism.

Colt McCoy was also another great passer in terms of accuracy -- but on a system basis, he essentially ran another air-raid type deal -- don't think I've seen any team run Y-Stick more than that Texas team.

But yeah, its interesting to note our QB's completion % as opposed to the traditional Leach QB -- Tony and Spav had our QB's attempt a significantly greater number of deep-ball throws (which both Jared and Davis excelled at) -- which were not entirely padded by the screen game (although Davis threw more screen balls than Jared did).

Spread formations and the screen game serving as a surrogate run game have created open space and easy completions.

---

I would also add the maybe minor point that when you attempt to throw the ball down field, you also are required to sit in the pocket much longer which means you are more likely to have to throw the ball away to avoid a sack which is not a function of QB accuracy at all. If you throw the ball 50 times in a game, every throw away is a 2% hit to your completion percentage.

run2win said:

---

It's actually why Joe Roth's accomplishments are so impressive. As we all know, he played before the West Coast / dink and dunk style of play. If you watch video clips of him on youtube, you see Joe's throws are attacking downfield. Seldom do you see Joe checking down to a back. His passing numbers during a run-oriented time of football are pretty cool.

---

If you watch the youtube of the USC game from 1975, they mention the USC QB was 15 for 53 on the season passing going into game eight.

GMP said:

---

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/19/16332762/watchability-fun-football-boring-quality-of-play

For years, I've looked at stats and said, "Wow, quarterbacks are so much more accurate now than they were 20, 30, 40 years ago." College quarterbacks now complete 65-75% of passes, and anything below 60% is awful. Even NFL quarterbacks now routinely complete 65% (last year, Sam Bradford set a new NFL record with 84.4%). This was not remotely true a few decades ago, when anything over 50% was pretty good, and the league leaders were in the low 60s. But this article suggests that while quarterbacks are more accurate because of increased reps (year-round 7-on-7 leagues in particular), the real reason quarterbacks are completing at such a high level is because offenses have gotten very conservative (this is mostly geared to the NFL, mind you). Coaches and quarterbacks would rather throw 3 yards short of the first down and punt than risk an interception down field. As this article suggests, this has actually made football boring.

Quote:

---

We are living in the golden age of failed completions, a statistic as grim as it sounds. Tracked by Football Outsiders, failed completions occur when a team doesn't get 45 percent of the yards it needs on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down. The stat goes back to 1989, and last season Joe Flacco set the record with 144. Nothing encapsulates this era of football as well as the failed completion: allegedly a success, but ultimately a bleak disappointment.

...

Sacks and interceptions hit all-time lows last year, but that just means that quarterbacks are getting rid of the ball quicker and opting for shorter, safer targets. We have reached one of the most frustrating eras in football history. Everything is fine and it doesn't look good.

---

I thought it was an interesting read, and some fans who are older than I am might have an interesting perspective.

---

geez does this sound familiar:

Quote:

---

Then you have the offensive coordinators, who, Simms said, are doing whatever they can to limit mistakes in order to earn the "quarterback whisperer" label on the back of some decent statistics.

"Everyone looks at the box score and says 'The offense wasn't that bad!' But well, they sucked," Simms said. "Quarterbacks and coaches are now very wary of mistakes

---

Who can blame them when you see fans going crazy over an explosion of statistics while ignoring offensive efficiency completely. Franklin was one who absolutely shamelessly padded offensive stats rather than giving his team the best chance to win.

Interesting stat in "failed completions".

Football Outsiders has a great stash of analytics.

Also, rule changes have prevented Defenses from crushing QBs and WRs (and rightfully so). So there's not as much fear for a QB to hang in the pocket a little bit longer or for a WR to go over the middle (higher completion pct area).

GMP said:

---

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/19/16332762/watchability-fun-football-boring-quality-of-play

For years, I've looked at stats and said, "Wow, quarterbacks are so much more accurate now than they were 20, 30, 40 years ago." College quarterbacks now complete 65-75% of passes, and anything below 60% is awful. Even NFL quarterbacks now routinely complete 65% (last year, Sam Bradford set a new NFL record with 84.4%). This was not remotely true a few decades ago, when anything over 50% was pretty good, and the league leaders were in the low 60s. But this article suggests that while quarterbacks are more accurate because of increased reps (year-round 7-on-7 leagues in particular), the real reason quarterbacks are completing at such a high level is because offenses have gotten very conservative (this is mostly geared to the NFL, mind you). Coaches and quarterbacks would rather throw 3 yards short of the first down and punt than risk an interception down field. As this article suggests, this has actually made football boring.

Quote:

---

We are living in the golden age of failed completions, a statistic as grim as it sounds. Tracked by Football Outsiders, failed completions occur when a team doesn't get 45 percent of the yards it needs on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down. The stat goes back to 1989, and last season Joe Flacco set the record with 144. Nothing encapsulates this era of football as well as the failed completion: allegedly a success, but ultimately a bleak disappointment.

...

Sacks and interceptions hit all-time lows last year, but that just means that quarterbacks are getting rid of the ball quicker and opting for shorter, safer targets. We have reached one of the most frustrating eras in football history. Everything is fine and it doesn't look good.

---

I thought it was an interesting read, and some fans who are older than I am might have an interesting perspective.

---

yes you wonder why Sonny ball scoring machine which provided such gaudy stats didn't win way more games, while Furd with poor stat Hogan (who threw long a lot) kept going to Rose Bowls

OaktownBear said:

---

run2win said:

---

It's actually why Joe Roth's accomplishments are so impressive. As we all know, he played before the West Coast / dink and dunk style of play. If you watch video clips of him on youtube, you see Joe's throws are attacking downfield. Seldom do you see Joe checking down to a back. His passing numbers during a run-oriented time of football are pretty cool.

---

If you watch the youtube of the USC game from 1975, they mention the USC QB was 15 for 53 on the season passing going into game eight.

---

Vince Evans was a great athlete but a horrible QB. Unfortunately, back then, some thought it was because of his color. Nope, he was just J Torchio bad.

What I see - give your kid a funky name and he I'll complete most of his passes. Not a Steve, Bob or Bill on the whole list.

wifeisafurd said:

---

GMP said:

---

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/19/16332762/watchability-fun-football-boring-quality-of-play

For years, I've looked at stats and said, "Wow, quarterbacks are so much more accurate now than they were 20, 30, 40 years ago." College quarterbacks now complete 65-75% of passes, and anything below 60% is awful. Even NFL quarterbacks now routinely complete 65% (last year, Sam Bradford set a new NFL record with 84.4%). This was not remotely true a few decades ago, when anything over 50% was pretty good, and the league leaders were in the low 60s. But this article suggests that while quarterbacks are more accurate because of increased reps (year-round 7-on-7 leagues in particular), the real reason quarterbacks are completing at such a high level is because offenses have gotten very conservative (this is mostly geared to the NFL, mind you). Coaches and quarterbacks would rather throw 3 yards short of the first down and punt than risk an interception down field. As this article suggests, this has actually made football boring.

Quote:

---

We are living in the golden age of failed completions, a statistic as grim as it sounds. Tracked by Football Outsiders, failed completions occur when a team doesn't get 45 percent of the yards it needs on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down. The stat goes back to 1989, and last season Joe Flacco set the record with 144. Nothing encapsulates this era of football as well as the failed completion: allegedly a success, but ultimately a bleak disappointment.

...

Sacks and interceptions hit all-time lows last year, but that just means that quarterbacks are getting rid of the ball quicker and opting for shorter, safer targets. We have reached one of the most frustrating eras in football history. Everything is fine and it doesn't look good.

---

I thought it was an interesting read, and some fans who are older than I am might have an interesting perspective.

---

yes you wonder why Sonny ball scoring machine which provided such gaudy stats didn't win way more games, while Furd with poor stat Hogan (who threw long a lot) kept going to Rose Bowls

---

I always figured it was the defense. Also the O-line.

You'd think increased dependence on data analytics would be a factor in this trend but most of the "advanced metrics" like EPA per play actually show that teams should throw it deep more than they do even factoring in the cost of sacks, INts, etc. So, it's not clearly not an optimization thing though, in general, the analytics clearly prefer passing to running.