Attendance factors for Arizona:
- Homecoming
- 5pm start (very doable for most, including families)
- We're coming off a huge win
- Another win would have us at the cusp of bowl contention
- Lower price point for tickets
- Giants are still not in the playoffs and other Bay Area football teams are sucking
- 2016 homecoming attendance vs. Utah (10/1, 3pm): 46618



I'm going with 42,997.

I'll play. I say just about right at 40k, a few hundred one way or the other. I'm thinking UofA will bring a decent number of fans, since they're in about the same position program turnaround-wise as Cal.

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

Attendance factors for Arizona:
- Homecoming
- 5pm start (very doable for most, including families)
- We're coming off a huge win
- Another win would have us at the cusp of bowl contention
- Lower price point for tickets
- Giants are still not in the playoffs and other Bay Area football teams are sucking
- 2016 homecoming attendance vs. Utah (10/1, 3pm): 46618



I'm going with 42,997.

---

Hopefully it rains on Thursday to reset the air quality to completely healthy levels, and we also get a bump from those that didn't come to Wazzu making sure they make it to another home game before the home schedule runs out. Just 2 more home games. College football season is so ephemeral!

KoreAmBear said:

---

Hopefully it rains on Thursday to reset the air quality to completely healthy levels, and we also get a bump from those that didn't come to Wazzu making sure they make it to another home game before the home schedule runs out. Just 2 more home games. College football season is so ephemeral!

---

KAB, things are lining up nicely for this game. Not sure there will be rain during the work week, but the air quality is improving dramatically. For instance, at 8pm the AQI was 45 ("good"). I don't think anyone who wants to go will stay home because of the air quality. FWIW, there are 1,343 tickets for sale right now on Stubhub, which is good for this year. This will clearly be our second best attended game of the season thus far.

34,000.

60,000 though if Cal Athletics announces that they'll pipe in Sweet Caroline again.

Yes, it's a very doable game (not for our Bears here in Long Beach unfortunately). The questions always seem to be based on the students, and 5pm is perfect - Any soccer games for parents to take them away? Weather seems much better. Bay Area events? Bay Bridge closed? The Bears are beat up and really have to play with heart. Closer to bowl game. 45K+? What do you think?

43k

38,695

33,622

40,206

+40k

Which Bear fan's guess will be most off (high or low) and earn this week's Price is Wrong award?

Bought one for a friend on Stub Hub. Section F. Seller wanted $55, which is basically face value. Stub Hub Charged me $71.00 with no explanation of fees which amount to 30%. Seems high, although I have not bought a ticket from there in a while.Seller gets about $45.00.

When you consider each ticket is worth $150.00 if you add the donation required, I guess not a bad deal.I think they used to charge less. I could not find a lsit of how fees are calculated. Would be interesting to know.

Ticket prices in the good section are holding firm, so I suspect demand is high. Only about 1200 tickets left when I bought.

Possibly more people than you think will be there. Lots didn't go because of the smoke, including my son and myself.Last game I can attend, so its a piority. Of Course there is always the trip to Stanford. A maybe if it is not a night game and I feel we have a chance. Who knows at this point. I hate that place so thats a factor.

35,000

.

Call me a sunshine pumper with a negabear prediction; I'm predicting 48k+ fans. The stadium will have some empty pockets, but it'll 'feel' like a packed stadium... until K Tate runs all over us and shut us all up. =(

I'm going with 5 other Cal fans.

oskidunker said:

---

Bought one for a friend on Stub Hub. Section F. Seller wanted $55, which is basically face value. Stub Hub Charged me $71.00 with no explanation of fees which amount to 30%. Seems high, although I have not bought a ticket from there in a while.Seller gets about $45.00.

When you consider each ticket is worth $150.00 if you add the donation required, I guess not a bad deal.I think they used to charge less. I could not find a lsit of how fees are calculated. Would be interesting to know.

Ticket prices in the good section are holding firm, so I suspect demand is high. Only about 1200 tickets left when I bought.

Possibly more people than you think will be there. Lots didn't go because of the smoke, including my son and myself.Last game I can attend, so its a piority. Of Course there is always the trip to Stanford. A maybe if it is not a night game and I feel we have a chance. Who knows at this point. I hate that place so thats a factor.

---

Stubhub fees have gotten ridiculous.

Wow, that's a cut of over 50% on that transaction, ridiculous.

Cal should partner with Seat Geek or someone else. Still I could not have bought that seat from Cal. They would have charged me $55 and it would be corner of the end zone or worse.

I'll go with 50k.

The "butts in the seat" attendance beat my predictions for WSU, and given its homecoming and at 5p, I think we can be cautiously optimistic.

SadbutTrue999 said:

---

I'll go with 50k.

---

WHere's our attendance guru who has been so spot on?

46, 250

It is ridiculous. Now, I just use stubhub to reference price and buy them on seatgeek.

37k

Though I believe those who do show will be ready for a game. Last week was something to build on. If the team puts in a strong effort, this will be a fun game to be in the stands for.

Cave Bear most sagacious.

Official attendance: 37525

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

Cave Bear most sagacious.

Official attendance: 37525

---

Looked and felt like more than 37,525

Many, MANY, tickets given away. Good idea, finally. Some may even come back.

A footnote on our upcoming game at Folsom Field.

2016 average attendance:
Cal: 46,628
Colorado: 46,609

2017 average attendance:
Cal (not counting WSU): 39,401 (differential from 2016: -7,227)
Colorado: 46,445 (differential from 2016: -164)

Source for 2016 data: http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/2016.pdf?sf68803361=1

The following is from a Buff fan, pulled from the above link:

• CU 7th in national for home attendance increase (7,220 more per game than 2015)
• 3 Pac-12 schools in top 30 for average home attendance: USC-#22, UCLA-#23, UW-#25.

Average attendance by conference:

• 1. SEC (77,507)
• 2. Big Ten (66,151)
• 3. Big 12 (57,531)
• 4. Pac 12 (50,073)
• 5. ACC (49,743)
• 6. AAC (31,611)
• 7. MWC (24,131)
• 8. C-USA (19,849)
• 9. Sun Belt (18,057)
• 10. MAC (16,391)

Pac-12 ranks (attendance/ capacity):

• 1. USC (68,459/ 93,000)
• 2. UCLA (67,459/ 92,542)
• 3. UW (64,589/ 70,083)
• 4. UO (56,677/ 54,000)
• 5. UA (48,288/ 57,400)
• 6. ASU (47,736/ 71,706)
• 7. Cal (46,628/ 63,000)
• 8. CU (46,609/ 50,183)
• 9. Utah (46,506/ 45,017)
• 10. Stanford (44,142/ 50,000)
• 11. OSU (37,622/ 45,674)
• 12. WSU (31,675/ 35,117)

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

A footnote on our upcoming game at Folsom Field.

2016 average attendance:
Cal: 46,628
Colorado: 46,609 (50,183 capacity)

2017 average attendance:
Cal (not counting WSU outlier): 39,401
Colorado: 46,445

Source for 2016 data: http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/2016.pdf?sf68803361=1

---

The most important thing to consider when discussing attendance is that attendance lags a resurrected program by one year. Review the Cal numbers in 02 and 03 below. After next season, you will see a correlation.

2002 (average attendance excl. Big Game) - 31415
2003 (average attendance) - 38305

That is a 21.9% increase.

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

HA footnote on our upcoming game at Folsom Field.

2016 average attendance:
Cal: 46,628
Colorado: 46,609

2017 average attendance:
Cal (not counting WSU): 39,401 (differential from 2016: -7,227)
Colorado: 46,445 (differential from 2016: -164)

Source for 2016 data: http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/2016.pdf?sf68803361=1

The following is from a Buff fan, pulled from the above link:

• CU 7th in national for home attendance increase (7,220 more per game than 2015)
• 3 Pac-12 schools in top 30 for average home attendance: USC-#22, UCLA-#23, UW-#25.

Average attendance by conference:

• 1. SEC (77,507)
• 2. Big Ten (66,151)
• 3. Big 12 (57,531)
• 4. Pac 12 (50,073)
• 5. ACC (49,743)
• 6. AAC (31,611)
• 7. MWC (24,131)
• 8. C-USA (19,849)
• 9. Sun Belt (18,057)
• 10. MAC (16,391)

Pac-12 ranks (attendance/ capacity):

• 1. USC (68,459/ 93,000)
• 2. UCLA (67,459/ 92,542)
• 3. UW (64,589/ 70,083)
• 4. UO (56,677/ 54,000)
• 5. UA (48,288/ 57,400)
• 6. ASU (47,736/ 71,706)
• 7. Cal (46,628/ 63,000)
• 8. CU (46,609/ 50,183)
• 9. Utah (46,506/ 45,017)
• 10. Stanford (44,142/ 50,000)
• 11. OSU (37,622/ 45,674)
• 12. WSU (31,675/ 35,117)

---

Even year attendance is skewed for both Cal and Stanford because of the alternating Big Game. Attendance for those two schools should always be reviewed in two year blocks or by excluding the Big Game from the stats.

71Bear said:

---

Even year attendance is skewed for both Cal and Stanford because of the alternating Big Game. Attendance for those two schools should always be reviewed in two year blocks or by excluding the Big Game from the stats.

---

Fair point.

Cal's 2016 average attendance, minus Big Game (which was 52,266): 45,500
(our differential from 2016: -6,099).

Note: we did have a marquee game against Texas (50,448) for which there was no real 2017 corollary. 2016 average minus Stanford and Texas: 44,263
(our differential from 2016: -4,862).