As of today (the 18th) SI has us in...

The Sun Bowl against Syracuse.

The Pac-12 bowl picture got a lot thinner with USC and Colorado in freefall.

Boy, it's nice to have clinched our spot early.

sycasey said:

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The Pac-12 bowl picture got a lot thinner with USC and Colorado in freefall.

Boy, it's nice to have clinched our spot early.

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Nothing is "clinched" until the season ends. If AZ, SC and CU win their finales and Cal loses the Big Game, things could become a bit dicey...

71Bear said:

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sycasey said:

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The Pac-12 bowl picture got a lot thinner with USC and Colorado in freefall.

Boy, it's nice to have clinched our spot early.

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Nothing is "clinched" until the season ends. If AZ, SC and CU win their finales and Cal loses the Big Game, things could become a bit dicey...

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We're going bowling no matter what. It may be a crappy bowl, but we'll be bowling somewhere in the United States. Someone will want us.

75bear said:

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71Bear said:

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sycasey said:

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The Pac-12 bowl picture got a lot thinner with USC and Colorado in freefall.

Boy, it's nice to have clinched our spot early.

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Nothing is "clinched" until the season ends. If AZ, SC and CU win their finales and Cal loses the Big Game, things could become a bit dicey...

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We're going bowling no matter what. It may be a crappy bowl, but we'll be bowling somewhere in the United States. Someone will want us.

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I would agree that it is a virtual lock but I would not agree that it is an absolute certainty. I would put the probability at 99.9%. In other words, just short of death and taxes.....

SoFlaBear said:

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As of today (the 18th) SI has us in...

The Sun Bowl against Syracuse.

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Nice bowl, it used to be for the 3rd place Pac-10 team, but Syracuse is tough.

oskirules said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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As of today (the 18th) SI has us in...

The Sun Bowl against Syracuse.

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Nice bowl, it used to be for the 3rd place Pac-10 team, but Syracuse is tough.

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I'm pretty sure the RedBox Bowl picks BEFORE the Sun Bowl. I would suspect the RedBox Bowl to pick the team that wins the Big Game. If we lose the Big Game then we would probably slide down to the Vegas Bowl - not the Sun Bowl over an 8-4 Oregon team. Just saying .... it's probably RedBox or Vegas - not the Sun Bowl....

75bear said:

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71Bear said:

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sycasey said:

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The Pac-12 bowl picture got a lot thinner with USC and Colorado in freefall.

Boy, it's nice to have clinched our spot early.

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Nothing is "clinched" until the season ends. If AZ, SC and CU win their finales and Cal loses the Big Game, things could become a bit dicey...

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We're going bowling no matter what. It may be a crappy bowl, but we'll be bowling somewhere in the United States. Someone will want us.

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So you're saying the Bahamas Bowl on the 12/21 is out? Shucks.

Go ND.

Projected Pac-12 Standings and Bowls Going into Big Game - assuming no upsets this week:

Already Bowl Eligible
1. WSU - 11-1 (8-1) -) to win Pac-12 Championship (assumes home win over UW)
2. Utah - 9-3 (6-3) - (assumes home win over BYU)
Winner of UW/WSU plays Utah for Rose Bowl (#1) loser to Alamo Bowl (#2)?
3. UW - 8-4 (6-3) - assumes loss at WSU - Holiday Bowl (#3)
Interesting to see what happens if UW beats WSU - Fiesta Bowl for WSU?
4. Oregon - 8-4 (5-4) - assumes win at OSU - SF/Redbox Bowl is #4 slot
5. Furd - 7-4 (5-3) - assumes win at Ucla
6. Cal 7-4 (4-4) - assumes win at home vs. Colorado
Big Game at Cal for likely 5 seed - Sun Bowl (but trade with SF) loser to Cheez-it (#7)
7. ASU 7-5 (5-4) - assumes win at UofA -tough game #6 seed to Vegas Bowl

Need Upset to become bowl eligible
8. UofA -5-7 (4-5) - upset win at home vs, ASU and bowl eligible at 6-6
9. SC - 5-7 (4-5) - upset win at home over Notre Dame and bowl eligible at 6-6
10. Colo - 5-7 (2-7) - upset win on road at Cal to be bowl eligible at 6-6

No Bowls Possible
11. Ucla 3-9 (3-6) - upset win at home over Furd to finish strong
12. OSU 2-10 (1-8) -upset win at home over Oregon to finish without bad taste

If WSU to Playoff or Fiesta, Pac-12 will have 8 slots with perhaps only 7 teams. If one of 5-6 teams win, one team will largely need to go to an At-Large Bowl.


Betting line this week
Oregon -14.5 at OSU
UW +3 at WSU
BYU + 13.5 at Utah
Colo +11 at Cal
Furd -5.5 at Ucla
ND - 8 at SC
ASU -2 at UofA

Looks like if we win two, we'd tie for fourth. (ASU/UA winner, Likely Oregon, furd if they beat UCLA).

Win one (vs CU), and we'll be tied for 7th with USC (they need to beat ND to have 6 wins) and the ASU/UA loser (if UA loses they are not bowl eligibile). If we lose to CU and beat furd, we could end up tied for 6th if they lose to UCLA.

Lose both and we'd be 9th in conference, but could move up to the 7th place bowl (chez it) if USC and AZ lose and are not eligible.

Getting 6th (LV) alone would be very hard, but ending up in a 3-4 way tie for 4th would allow a Vegas possibility if the bowls and the conference choose to do so.

There may be rules against repeats, in which case ASU would not go to the Sun Bowl and Oregon would not go to LV. But of we are T4, hard to see the Red Box bowl choosing anyone else. Not only would Cal be local, but we'd be the only team to exceed expectations which would drive ticket sales IMO. Other teams are going to see a 4th place bowl as a let down.

All changes if WSU qualifies for the CFB playoff.

Really, a cheez it bowl? I eat a ton of those. Like the traditional but have ventured into ridged and buffalo wing varieties. I know, risky stuff. That said, a 'cuse matchup would be great but tough. Thanks for the bowl scenarios.

I don't want to be ungrateful and I'm thrilled Cal will be going to any bowl, but the Red box/Foster Farms/Fight Hunger/Emerald bowl would be like kissing your sister.

cal83dls79 said:

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Really, a cheez it bowl? I eat a ton of those. Like the traditional but have ventured into ridged and buffalo wing varieties. I know, risky stuff. That said, a 'cuse matchup would be great but tough. Thanks for the bowl scenarios.

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Have you gone "extra toasty" yet? Those are legit.

ColoradoBear said:

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Looks like if we win two, we'd tie for fourth. (ASU/UA winner, Likely Oregon, furd if they beat UCLA).

Win one (vs CU), and we'll be tied for 7th with USC (they need to beat ND to have 6 wins) and the ASU/UA loser (if UA loses they are not bowl eligibile). If we lose to CU and beat furd, we could end up tied for 6th if they lose to UCLA.

Lose both and we'd be 9th in conference, but could move up to the 7th place bowl (chez it) if USC and AZ lose and are not eligible.

Getting 6th (LV) alone would be very hard, but ending up in a 3-4 way tie for 4th would allow a Vegas possibility if the bowls and the conference choose to do so.

There may be rules against repeats, in which case ASU would not go to the Sun Bowl and Oregon would not go to LV. But of we are T4, hard to see the Red Box bowl choosing anyone else. Not only would Cal be local, but we'd be the only team to exceed expectations which would drive ticket sales IMO. Other teams are going to see a 4th place bowl as a let down.

All changes if WSU qualifies for the CFB playoff.

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All the possibilities make my head hurt.
I got it. Cal ignores all the "if's" and plays like there's no tomorrow. Win as many as we can. Then let the chips (pun intended) fall where they may.
Go Bears

TheSouseFamily said:

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cal83dls79 said:

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Really, a cheez it bowl? I eat a ton of those. Like the traditional but have ventured into ridged and buffalo wing varieties. I know, risky stuff. That said, a 'cuse matchup would be great but tough. Thanks for the bowl scenarios.

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Have you gone "extra toasty" yet? Those are legit.

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wuh? Get out.

As far as I can tell, here are the Bowl Tie-ins, opponents, location, date and times (Pacific):

Rose Bowl - Pasadena - Rose Bowl #1 vs. Big Ten (#1) - 1/1 2pm
Alamo Bowl - San Antonio - Alamodome #2 vs. Big 12 (#2) - 12/28 6pm
Holiday Bowl - San Diego - SDCCU Stadium #3 vs. Big Ten #3 - 12/31 4pm
Redbox Bowl - Santa Clara - Levis Stadium vs. #4 Big Ten #6 -12/31 Noon
Sun Bowl - El Paso - Sun Bowl #5 vs. ACC (#3-6) - 12/31 11am
Vegas Bowl - Las Vegas - Sam Boyd #6 vs. Mountain West #1 - 12/15 12:30pm
Cheez-it Bowl - Phoenix - Chase Field #7 vs. Big 12 (#6) - 12/26 6pm

cal83dls79 said:

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Sebastabear said:

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I don't want to be ungrateful and I'm thrilled Cal will be going to any bowl, but the Red box/Foster Farms/Fight Hunger/Emerald bowl would be like kissing your sister.

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have you seen my sister?

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Pictures? And how does she feel about Cal? A guy has to have standards.

Sebastabear said:

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cal83dls79 said:

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Sebastabear said:

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I don't want to be ungrateful and I'm thrilled Cal will be going to any bowl, but the Red box/Foster Farms/Fight Hunger/Emerald bowl would be like kissing your sister.

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have you seen my sister?

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Pictures? And how does she feel about Cal? A guy has to have standards.

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she went to cal, do the math. That said I met my wife at cal ...

cal83dls79 said:

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TheSouseFamily said:

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cal83dls79 said:

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Really, a cheez it bowl? I eat a ton of those. Like the traditional but have ventured into ridged and buffalo wing varieties. I know, risky stuff. That said, a 'cuse matchup would be great but tough. Thanks for the bowl scenarios.

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Have you gone "extra toasty" yet? Those are legit.

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wuh? Get out.

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Marry extra toasty with white cheddar and now you've got something completely unstoppable.

91Gypo said:

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As far as I can tell, here are the Bowl Tie-ins, opponents, location, date and times (Pacific):

Rose Bowl - Pasadena - Rose Bowl #1 vs. Big Ten (#1) - 1/1 2pm
Alamo Bowl - San Antonio - Alamodome #2 vs. Big 12 (#2) - 12/28 6pm
Holiday Bowl - San Diego - SDCCU Stadium #3 vs. Big Ten #3 - 12/31 4pm
Redbox Bowl - Santa Clara - Levis Stadium vs. #4 Big Ten #6 -12/31 Noon
Sun Bowl - El Paso - Sun Bowl #5 vs. ACC (#3-6) - 12/31 11am
Vegas Bowl - Las Vegas - Sam Boyd #6 vs. Mountain West #1 - 12/15 12:30pm
Cheez-it Bowl - Phoenix - Chase Field #7 vs. Big 12 (#6) - 12/26 6pm

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I remember how much our bowl matchups sucked back in the Tedford era (Pac-12 #2 vs. Big 12 #4 or some crap like that). Adding the Alamo Bowl has nicely evened things out.

kirklandblue said:

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cal83dls79 said:

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TheSouseFamily said:

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cal83dls79 said:

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Really, a cheez it bowl? I eat a ton of those. Like the traditional but have ventured into ridged and buffalo wing varieties. I know, risky stuff. That said, a 'cuse matchup would be great but tough. Thanks for the bowl scenarios.

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Have you gone "extra toasty" yet? Those are legit.

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wuh? Get out.

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Marry extra toasty with white cheddar and now you've got something completely unstoppable.

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Oh wow. I'm getting some white cheddar today and giving that a go. I suspect that's a home run combination. This could very well be the most useful post I've ever read on this site.

The Redbox Bowl features a matchup with the Big 10, so if you squint your eyes a little you can pretend it's the Rose Bowl.

(In all seriousness, if we win two more, end up there, and get a win against a decent Big 10 opponent like Michigan St. or Indiana in front of a nice crowd - we done good.)

I've posted below what I believe is the best breakdown I've seen for our bowl possibilities. It was posted by someone else on CGB. If you don't want to read thru the whole thing, it pretty much validates what someone posted earlier in that Redbox and Vegas are the most likely options. I think its also important for everyone to remember that conference standings do NOT necessarily matter as long as teams are within 1 game of each other in the conference standings

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Ok, first lets review how bowls pick teams. Most of the big time bowls are automatic (duh), but the more minor bowls have a lot more flexibility. The one misconception is that the 5th place team (for instance) has to end up in the 5th place bowl. That is NOT true. Think of it more as a draft pick. The 5th place bowl gets the 5th pick (as long as they are choosing from teams within 1 game of the conference standings).

Lets also make 2 assumptions for simplicity. SC will not be going bowling, and Oregon will beat OSU, can we all agree to that? good.

- Cal wins both games (8-4, 5-4) Most likely we end up in the Redbox bowl (4th pick). Even though some teams may technically finish ahead of us (Oregon with the tiebreaker), I don't see any way the Redbox bowl passes on us over teams like Oregon, Furd, or ASU. We would theoretically draw better than any of those teams. If for some reason Redbox takes Oregon over us, we end up in Sun or Vegas.

- Cal loses both games (6-6, 3-6).
a) IF AZ beats ASU, both those teams would finish 4-5. So Vegas and Cheez-it would be picking between us, ASU and Arizona. In that situation, there is almost zero way the Cheez-It takes us over either ASU or Arizona. So there's a slight possibility we end up in Vegas, but most likely we end up in some random bowl game.
b) IF ASU beats AZ, AZ is not bowl eligible. In that case, I strongly believe Vegas and Cheez-It bowl make a deal and Vegas takes Cal and Cheez-It gets the hometown team with ASU.

- Cal wins 1 game (7-4, 4-5). This scenario will get somewhat complicated, cause what Furd does against UCLA would come into play. But for the time being, lets assume Furd beats UCLA and Cal's 1 win comes against Colorado and not Furd.*
a) IF AZ (6-6, 5-4) beats ASU (6-6, 4-5), Vegas and Cheez-It will again be picking between us and the two Arizona schools. I think there is a decent chance Vegas goes with us as the only 7-4 team, but there's an equally good chance Vegas takes one of the Arizona schools cause they could theoretically draw better. If Vegas passes on Cal, Cal would again end up in some random bowl, since the Cheez-It Bowl would take the other Arizona school.
b) IF ASU beats AZ, see above scenario (Vegas takes Cal, Cheez-It takes ASU)
Three main takeways 1. my math could be wrong somewhere, 2. we want ASU to beat AZ. 3. Its unlikely we end up in the Cheez-It bowl

*If we were to either beat Furd and not Colorado and/or Furd loses to fUCLA, then Redbox bowl is in play.

editors note - I think the original author forgot about CU being bowl eligible if Cal loses both. I don't believe it would change the outcome however, since Cal would still be more appealing to Vegas than CU even if CU beats Cal. Cal would be even more attractive to Vegas in this situation if Tedford were headed to Vegas as well

TheSouseFamily said:

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cal83dls79 said:

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Really, a cheez it bowl? I eat a ton of those. Like the traditional but have ventured into ridged and buffalo wing varieties. I know, risky stuff. That said, a 'cuse matchup would be great but tough. Thanks for the bowl scenarios.

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Have you gone "extra toasty" yet? Those are legit.

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Can confirm the Extra Toasty are next level snacking.

That would be a nice matchup.

I would be very happy with Holiday Bowl, SF Bowl or Sun Bowl, with the chance I could make the first two.

But overall, I would be happy in general just seeing Cal play in a bowl game.

Go Bears!

ducky23 said:

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I've posted below what I believe is the best breakdown I've seen for our bowl possibilities. It was posted by someone else on CGB. If you don't want to read thru the whole thing, it pretty much validates what someone posted earlier in that Redbox and Vegas are the most likely options. I think its also important for everyone to remember that conference standings do NOT necessarily matter as long as teams are within 1 game of each other in the conference standings

------------------------
Ok, first lets review how bowls pick teams. Most of the big time bowls are automatic (duh), but the more minor bowls have a lot more flexibility. The one misconception is that the 5th place team (for instance) has to end up in the 5th place bowl. That is NOT true. Think of it more as a draft pick. The 5th place bowl gets the 5th pick (as long as they are choosing from teams within 1 game of the conference standings).

Lets also make 2 assumptions for simplicity. SC will not be going bowling, and Oregon will beat OSU, can we all agree to that? good.

- Cal wins both games (8-4, 5-4) Most likely we end up in the Redbox bowl (4th pick). Even though some teams may technically finish ahead of us (Oregon with the tiebreaker), I don't see any way the Redbox bowl passes on us over teams like Oregon, Furd, or ASU. We would theoretically draw better than any of those teams. If for some reason Redbox takes Oregon over us, we end up in Sun or Vegas.

- Cal loses both games (6-6, 3-6).
a) IF AZ beats ASU, both those teams would finish 4-5. So Vegas and Cheez-it would be picking between us, ASU and Arizona. In that situation, there is almost zero way the Cheez-It takes us over either ASU or Arizona. So there's a slight possibility we end up in Vegas, but most likely we end up in some random bowl game.
b) IF ASU beats AZ, AZ is not bowl eligible. In that case, I strongly believe Vegas and Cheez-It bowl make a deal and Vegas takes Cal and Cheez-It gets the hometown team with ASU.

- Cal wins 1 game (7-4, 4-5). This scenario will get somewhat complicated, cause what Furd does against UCLA would come into play. But for the time being, lets assume Furd beats UCLA and Cal's 1 win comes against Colorado and not Furd.*
a) IF AZ (6-6, 5-4) beats ASU (6-6, 4-5), Vegas and Cheez-It will again be picking between us and the two Arizona schools. I think there is a decent chance Vegas goes with us as the only 7-4 team, but there's an equally good chance Vegas takes one of the Arizona schools cause they could theoretically draw better. If Vegas passes on Cal, Cal would again end up in some random bowl, since the Cheez-It Bowl would take the other Arizona school.
b) IF ASU beats AZ, see above scenario (Vegas takes Cal, Cheez-It takes ASU)
Three main takeways 1. my math could be wrong somewhere, 2. we want ASU to beat AZ. 3. Its unlikely we end up in the Cheez-It bowl

*If we were to either beat Furd and not Colorado and/or Furd loses to fUCLA, then Redbox bowl is in play.

editors note - I think the original author forgot about CU being bowl eligible if Cal loses both. I don't believe it would change the outcome however, since Cal would still be more appealing to Vegas than CU even if CU beats Cal. Cal would be even more attractive to Vegas in this situation if Tedford were headed to Vegas as well

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This is an excellent summary. Thank you.

BTW, if we do win our next two and head to Levi's, let's hope it's NOT a no-win matchup against Utah State, which at least one of the bowl projection people has slated for the Redbox Bowl.

Why does the Pac-12 & SEC have no bowl matchup?

AlphaBear said:

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Why does the Pac-12 & SEC have no bowl matchup?

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I think because the SEC doesn't want (or need) to leave the South, and the bowls out there think Pac-12 teams are too far away to invite.

Too bad.

I like the possibility of the RedBox Bowl, held at Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara), site of the conf. championship game. Playing there this year in a bowl game (even if it is vs Big10 #6) would be a valuable practice run to prepare the '19 California Golden Bears for their glorious Pac-12 championship victory (leading to The Rose Bowl '19-'20).