Mac is out at Colorado, and there is a lot of speculation about Helton at USC. I think those are the only two potential changes at head coach. There is a lot of marginal success or too early to tell situations to cause too much upheaval.

1. MacIntrye - Colorado - Out
2. Edwards - ASU - Mildly successful season - Safe
3. Sumlin - Arizona - Disappointing season - Safe (too soon)
4. Kelly - UCLA - Disappointing season with a good finish - Safe (too soon)
5. Whittingham - Successful season - Safe
6. Helton - USC - Disappointing season - Maybe
7. Shaw - Stanford - Disappointing season - Safe (due to prior success)
8. Wilcox - Cal - Successful season (probably)
9. Smith - Oregon State - Disappointing season - Safe (too soon)
10. Cristobal - Oregon - Slightly disappointing season - Safe (recruiting is too good)
11. Petersen - UW - Mildly disappointing season - Safe
12. Leach - Wazzou - Successful season - Safe

As an aside, I really hope Jake Spavital does not become a head coach in the conference anytime soon. I don't think he'd bring championships, but he'd be a consistently above average coach and recruiter.

Interesting - good analysis on your part. I would have thought there'd be more changes in a given year, but your thoughts are probably correct.

golden sloth said:

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Mac is out at Colorado, and there is a lot of speculation about Helton at USC. I think those are the only two potential changes at head coach. There is a lot of marginal success or too early to tell situations to cause too much upheaval.

1. MacIntrye - Colorado - Out
2. Edwards - ASU - Mildly successful season - Safe
3. Sumlin - Arizona - Disappointing season - Safe (too soon)
4. Kelly - UCLA - Disappointing season with a good finish - Safe (too soon)
5. Whittingham - Successful season - Safe
6. Helton - USC - Disappointing season - Maybe
7. Shaw - Stanford - Disappointing season - Safe (due to prior success)
8. Wilcox - Cal - Successful season (probably)
9. Smith - Oregon State - Disappointing season - Safe (too soon)
10. Cristobal - Oregon - Slightly disappointing season - Safe (recruiting is too good)
11. Petersen - UW - Mildly disappointing season - Safe
12. Leach - Wazzou - Successful season - Safe

As an aside, I really hope Jake Spavital does not become a head coach in the conference anytime soon. I don't think he'd bring championships, but he'd be a consistently above average coach and recruiter.

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You are far too tough. You are not giving enough credit to several coaches...

Edwards - most pundits expected him to crash and burn. He has far exceeded those expectations and has done a good job bringing order to the mess left by Graham. Whether he can recruit big time players will determine his future because ASU will always think they should win more games than is realistic.

Kelly - overall a success because things started off so badly and he was able to turn things around (not an easy feat in the middle of a season). His win over SC was huge. As much as I hate to say this - UCLA will be a force in the conference under his leadership.

Smith - He started with nothing and has done a good job of keeping the program on a positive track. Winning a conference road game was a major accomplishment. He appears to be a guy who can recruit. Can the Beavs keep a coach who is bound for big things?

I completely agree with your assessment of Smith at Oregon State, that is a complete rebuild and everyone knew this was going to be a tough year. Nonetheless, a 2-9 and probably 2-10 season is always disappointing. I don't think it has anything to do with Smith, and I don't think OSU blames him, hence why he is safe.

Kelly's season was salvaged by the win over USC, but early on I think the UCLA fans knew this would be a lost year as they transition coaches.

As for Edwards, I know he was laughed at as a hire, and he looks to be competent, but they are only going to be 6-6 or 7-5, which is maybe a game above expectations in a really weak division. So, mildly successful.

OK, what about the next levels of coaching.. Do you see any of Wilcox's coaching team leaving? Any of the D coaches due for a promotion??

Kelly could easily have lost the team had the 2nd half of the season gone like the first. They (fUCLA) dodged a bullet, nay a head shot, and sadly I think the rest of the conference will have to reckon with that team in future years.

dmh65 said:

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OK, what about the next levels of coaching.. Do you see any of Wilcox's coaching team leaving? Any of the D coaches due for a promotion??

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Like, all of them unless they all get massive raises.

dmh65 said:

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OK, what about the next levels of coaching.. Do you see any of Wilcox's coaching team leaving? Any of the D coaches due for a promotion??

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I'd be concerned with Gerald Alexander. The progress of the DBs both individually and as a unit has been amazing, and his work as 'tackling' coordinator has been impressive. He seems like he could either be pursued with money by the big programs for a lateral move or given the chance to be a coordinator at a lesser school. He also seems to be a good recruiter. All around, he is probably the best position coach over the last two years.

The Pac-12 Coaching carousel looks to be pretty quiet this year. USC HC Helton deserves to be fired but it appears Lynn Swann is prepared to ride the sinking ship with him.

Cal needs to lock up JW. If he has another successful year next year I suspect Oregon or others may come calling.

It doesn't look like any big -time P5 FBS HC positions will become available this year unless Urban Meyer calls it quits due to health reasons. If so, I see Cincinnati HC Luke Fickell getting the nod over OSU OC Ryan Day.

It appears the time is up for Bill Snyder at Kansas St. I suspect as a condition of retiring Snyder succeeds in getting his son Sean the HC job.
Interesting to see if Jeff Brohm leaves Purdue for Louisville. i doubt he will. Purdue is a better job right now.
Illinois HC Lovie Smith's buyout is too large for Illinois to eat, so he gets another year.
I expect Maryland interim HC Matt Canada to get the Maryland HC job.
It looks like Chris Ash will get another year at Rutgers.

Colorado: Utah St. HC Matt Wells would be a good choice but Utah St. is his Alma Mater. I doubt Colorado would be able to sign him. I see Wells (age 45) staying at Utah St. until the Utah or BYU HC jobs open up.

I think Colorado goes the coordinator route -- maybe Oregon DC and former Colorado DC Jim Leavitt, but I think he is damaged goods after his performance this year at Oregon (and he is by far the highest paid assistant in the Pac-12). Plus, I think Leavitt prefers the Kansas St. job even though he is dreaming to think he will be offered it. UW DC Jimmy Lake would be a solid HC candidate at Colorado.

71Bear said:

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golden sloth said:

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Mac is out at Colorado, and there is a lot of speculation about Helton at USC. I think those are the only two potential changes at head coach. There is a lot of marginal success or too early to tell situations to cause too much upheaval.

1. MacIntrye - Colorado - Out
2. Edwards - ASU - Mildly successful season - Safe
3. Sumlin - Arizona - Disappointing season - Safe (too soon)
4. Kelly - UCLA - Disappointing season with a good finish - Safe (too soon)
5. Whittingham - Successful season - Safe
6. Helton - USC - Disappointing season - Maybe
7. Shaw - Stanford - Disappointing season - Safe (due to prior success)
8. Wilcox - Cal - Successful season (probably)
9. Smith - Oregon State - Disappointing season - Safe (too soon)
10. Cristobal - Oregon - Slightly disappointing season - Safe (recruiting is too good)
11. Petersen - UW - Mildly disappointing season - Safe
12. Leach - Wazzou - Successful season - Safe

As an aside, I really hope Jake Spavital does not become a head coach in the conference anytime soon. I don't think he'd bring championships, but he'd be a consistently above average coach and recruiter.

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You are far too tough. You are not giving enough credit to several coaches...

Edwards - most pundits expected him to crash and burn. He has far exceeded those expectations and has done a good job bringing order to the mess left by Graham. Whether he can recruit big time players will determine his future because ASU will always think they should win more games than is realistic.

Kelly - overall a success because things started off so badly and he was able to turn things around (not an easy feat in the middle of a season). His win over SC was huge. As much as I hate to say this - UCLA will be a force in the conference under his leadership.

Smith - He started with nothing and has done a good job of keeping the program on a positive track. Winning a conference road game was a major accomplishment. He appears to be a guy who can recruit. Can the Beavs keep a coach who is bound for big things?

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I have to agree with this. Bruin land is upbeat, Edward was a few points away for competing for the South title and Smith had nothing much to work with and still won some games. I'm curios about the Wilcox as probably?

77Bear said:

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Colorado: Utah St. HC Matt Wells would be a good choice but Utah St. is his Alma Mater. I doubt Colorado would be able to sign him. I see Wells (age 45) staying at Utah St. until the Utah or BYU HC jobs open up.

I think Colorado goes the coordinator route -- maybe Oregon DC and former Colorado DC Jim Leavitt, but I think he is damaged goods after his performance this year at Oregon (and he is by far the highest paid assistant in the Pac-12). Plus, I think Leavitt prefers the Kansas St. job even though he is dreaming to think he will be offered it. UW DC Jimmy Lake would be a solid HC candidate at Colorado.

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Someone is going to pick up the Utah State coach, and a guy who could get elevated to a major program is the Iowa State coach.

Yeah just noticed Utah State is ranked in the Top 25 with a 10-1 record. Matt Wells is going to move up and Colo makes sense because it's in the same recruiting region. Someone is going to hire him.

Strykur said:

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dmh65 said:

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OK, what about the next levels of coaching.. Do you see any of Wilcox's coaching team leaving? Any of the D coaches due for a promotion??

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Like, all of them unless they all get massive raises.

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DeRuyter will never see the field as a HC. Look at his record at Fresno St.

wifeisafurd said:

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71Bear said:

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golden sloth said:

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Mac is out at Colorado, and there is a lot of speculation about Helton at USC. I think those are the only two potential changes at head coach. There is a lot of marginal success or too early to tell situations to cause too much upheaval.

1. MacIntrye - Colorado - Out
2. Edwards - ASU - Mildly successful season - Safe
3. Sumlin - Arizona - Disappointing season - Safe (too soon)
4. Kelly - UCLA - Disappointing season with a good finish - Safe (too soon)
5. Whittingham - Successful season - Safe
6. Helton - USC - Disappointing season - Maybe
7. Shaw - Stanford - Disappointing season - Safe (due to prior success)
8. Wilcox - Cal - Successful season (probably)
9. Smith - Oregon State - Disappointing season - Safe (too soon)
10. Cristobal - Oregon - Slightly disappointing season - Safe (recruiting is too good)
11. Petersen - UW - Mildly disappointing season - Safe
12. Leach - Wazzou - Successful season - Safe

As an aside, I really hope Jake Spavital does not become a head coach in the conference anytime soon. I don't think he'd bring championships, but he'd be a consistently above average coach and recruiter.

---

You are far too tough. You are not giving enough credit to several coaches...

Edwards - most pundits expected him to crash and burn. He has far exceeded those expectations and has done a good job bringing order to the mess left by Graham. Whether he can recruit big time players will determine his future because ASU will always think they should win more games than is realistic.

Kelly - overall a success because things started off so badly and he was able to turn things around (not an easy feat in the middle of a season). His win over SC was huge. As much as I hate to say this - UCLA will be a force in the conference under his leadership.

Smith - He started with nothing and has done a good job of keeping the program on a positive track. Winning a conference road game was a major accomplishment. He appears to be a guy who can recruit. Can the Beavs keep a coach who is bound for big things?

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I have to agree with this. Bruin land is upbeat, Edward was a few points away for competing for the South title and Smith had nothing much to work with and still won some games. I'm curios about the Wilcox as probably?

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Re. Wilcox, some people around here like to wet the bed early and often. Cal will probably have to renegotiate his contract, but he's as safe any of them.

Chip Kelly has always struck me as the guy who does the laughing and that is bad for everybody else in the conference. He just needs time and you don't fire a guy like Kelly because the first year went south. I'm sure they had a conversation about his philosophy on what UCLA needs to do to be competitive and I'm pretty sure that conversation included multiple years to revamp the roster.

I'm glad somebody mentioned Lake at UW. If he doesn't move this cycle to another school I think Wilcox has him on speed dial should we lose our DC.

Wilcox is safe. How can anybody argue that this season isn't a success.

CALiforniALUM said:

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Chip Kelly has always struck me as the guy who does the laughing and that is bad for everybody else in the conference. He just needs time and you don't fire a guy like Kelly because the first year went south. I'm sure they had a conversation about his philosophy on what UCLA needs to do to be competitive and I'm pretty sure that conversation included multiple years to revamp the roster.

I'm glad somebody mentioned Lake at UW. If he doesn't move this cycle to another school I think Wilcox has him on speed dial should we lose our DC.

Wilcox is safe. How can anybody argue that this season isn't a success.

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Cal can't afford Lake.... Besides, he is already a DC. Why would he want to make a lateral move?