The sky is falling!

13,909 Views | 79 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by Cal8285
AunBear89
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Might as well get this started. The coaches can't recruit! What are they thinking? Bunch of second and third choices. Fire the entire staff. We're Cal and we can't have nice stuff.

Did I miss anything? Obsessing on the decisions of teen-age boys is fun!
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
Bobodeluxe
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The red hair is ugly...
Nasal Mucus Goldenbear
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71Bear
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AunBear89 said:



Might as well get this started. The coaches can't recruit! What are they thinking? Bunch of second and third choices. Fire the entire staff. We're Cal and we can't have nice stuff.

Did I miss anything? Obsessing on the decisions of teen-age boys is fun!
Quite frankly, this class is disappointing. It isn't a "sky is falling" disappointment but it should have been better. Wilcox is a great coach in most aspects of the job. The #1 unknown is whether he can recruit. To date, that is still an unanswered question.

One of the primary reasons why Cal has been so crappy over the last decade - lousy recruiting. Having said that, I guess the sky was falling all those years.

GoldenBear151
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Something may happen and it would be info no one has on here. Still time.
MilleniaBear
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The only thing that alarms me about this class is the concentration of recruits from texas. The fsu story on deruyter was that he favored texas players that wouldnt pan out at fsu while alienating CA high school coaches. It caught up to him eventually.
okaydo
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I have been off the internet all morning. Has it really been that bad?
bearsandgiants
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when did early signings become more important than february signing day?
510 Bear
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71Bear said:


Quite frankly, this class is disappointing. It isn't a "sky is falling" disappointment but it should have been better. Wilcox is a great coach in most aspects of the job. The #1 unknown is whether he can recruit. To date, that is still an unanswered question.

One of the primary reasons why Cal has been so crappy over the last decade - lousy recruiting. Having said that, I guess the sky was falling all those years.


It's early to say this year's class is a disaster, but it's looking like Wilcox will have to pull off another winning year or two with so-so talent before we can start landing bigger fish. That's never easy but I like our chances - he's already shown this year that he can do more with less.

THE SKY IS NOT FALLING
Nasal Mucus Goldenbear
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Another Bear
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510 Bear said:

71Bear said:


Quite frankly, this class is disappointing. It isn't a "sky is falling" disappointment but it should have been better. Wilcox is a great coach in most aspects of the job. The #1 unknown is whether he can recruit. To date, that is still an unanswered question.

One of the primary reasons why Cal has been so crappy over the last decade - lousy recruiting. Having said that, I guess the sky was falling all those years.


It's early to say this year's class is a disaster, but it's looking like Wilcox will have to pull off another winning year or two with so-so talent before we can start landing bigger fish. That's never easy but I like our chances - he's already shown this year that he can do more with less.

THE SKY IS NOT FALLING
Agree...sky isn't falling. Of course I'd like to see Cal recruit well but we have to be honest - Cal is still in a rebuilding phase and you don't get the best recruits until you're winning or have a perennial top 25 program. I was thinking the same thing - it's going to take a another year or two of winning before the better recruits sign on.
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StarsDoMatter
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The sky is not falling. It's not pretty either..

We whiffed on tons of elite Nor-Cal recruits (well, all of them). We whiffed on every 4-star in the state of California. Has that ever happened before? Now, we're back door covering our butts with transfers and JCs. 5 TX, 5 AZ commits. So much for locking down CA.

This caught my attention: William Jones flipped from us to K-State (to a coach who's been on the job for 3 days)

The sky is not falling, but this staff isn't scaring anyone in the pac-12 with their recruiting acumen.
71Bear
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bearsandgiants said:

when did early signings become more important than february signing day?
This is the second year that an early signing date is in effective for all recruits. In the past, the December date was reserved for JC's only. Last year, roughly 75% of all recruits signing an LOI signed in December. This year, the figure should be in that ballpark.
Blueblood
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Bobodeluxe said:

The red hair is ugly...
Well, aUNbear89 is ugly.
71Bear
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StarsDoMatter said:


The sky is not falling. It's not pretty either..

We whiffed on tons of elite Nor-Cal recruits (well, all of them). We whiffed on every 4-star in the state of California. Has that ever happened before? Now, we're back door covering our butts with transfers and JCs. 5 TX, 5 AZ commits. So much for locking down CA.

This caught my attention: William Jones flipped from us to K-State (to a coach who's been on the job for 3 days)

The sky is not falling, but this staff isn't scaring anyone in the pac-12 with their recruiting acumen.
The records at Rivals go back to 2002. Since then, this is the first time that Cal has not signed at least one four star from the state of California.
I Bear
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Geez, some of y'all would be upset if we signed clones of Aaron, Marshawn, Bishop & Jahvid. The program is moving forward in a positive direction, which wasn't the case with Sonny or the last year's of JT. JW can't make kids come here regardless of how great we think CAL is! This is in fact a great class simply because the young men who signed up WANTED to be here! Now it's time for the coaches to get the max from the kids and it's time for us to back the program!
Klambear
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Any surprise signings?
71Bear
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I Bear said:

Geez, some of y'all would be upset if we signed clones of Aaron, Marshawn, Bishop & Jahvid. The program is moving forward in a positive direction, which wasn't the case with Sonny or the last year's of JT. JW can't make kids come here regardless of how great we think CAL is! This is in fact a great class simply because the young men who signed up WANTED to be here! Now it's time for the coaches to get the max from the kids and it's time for us to back the program!
I think Wilcox is looking for more than just kids who want to attend Cal. In addition to the desire to play for the Bears, I believe he is looking for kids with the talent to play against P5 competition.
AunBear89
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71Bear said:

bearsandgiants said:

when did early signings become more important than february signing day?
This is the second year that an early signing date is in effective for all recruits. In the past, the December date was reserved for JC's only. Last year, roughly 75% of all recruits signing an LOI signed in December. This year, the figure should be in that ballpark.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
AunBear89
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Blueblood said:

Bobodeluxe said:

The red hair is ugly...
Well, aUNbear89 is ugly.
bluedud said:
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
510 Bear
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One thing I also wonder about: is there a P5 program that has a comparable level of W-L success over the last decade but is succeeding on the recruiting trail more than we are? If there are a few such programs, then yeah, our staff's recruiting abilities are suspect.
Another Bear
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StarsDoMatter said:


The sky is not falling. It's not pretty either..

We whiffed on tons of elite Nor-Cal recruits (well, all of them). We whiffed on every 4-star in the state of California. Has that ever happened before? Now, we're back door covering our butts with transfers and JCs. 5 TX, 5 AZ commits. So much for locking down CA.

This caught my attention: William Jones flipped from us to K-State (to a coach who's been on the job for 3 days)

The sky is not falling, but this staff isn't scaring anyone in the pac-12 with their recruiting acumen.
Fair enough, can't hide from the truth. But again, unless you're a perennial top 25 team, or on a major upward trajectory, you're not going to get 4 or 5 star guys, not with the current academic requirements and not without a winning program.

Also, in the state of California, Cal is competing agains $C, UCLA and to some degree Furd. The biggest kicker however might be the change in attitude by Gen-Z California kids. It use to be staying at home was desireable but I think kids would rather go to a out of state program that LOVES football (gives you all the associated perks). instead of Cal, where you will grind it out and the academics are real. Fact of the matter, this limits Cal. Full load at Cal and FB practice...that's two jobs.

Example: the kid who flipped to K-state. Why in god's name would you want to go to Kansas over Cal and NorCal and being from California? I can figure better fit, more PT, but also easier and more open to FB. That said, I'm not for lowering the standards at Cal. It is what it is...and you play the hand dealt. To get 4 and 5 star recruits Cal has to win and/or show a big upside potential.
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burritos
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BearGreg
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71Bear said:

StarsDoMatter said:


The sky is not falling. It's not pretty either..

We whiffed on tons of elite Nor-Cal recruits (well, all of them). We whiffed on every 4-star in the state of California. Has that ever happened before? Now, we're back door covering our butts with transfers and JCs. 5 TX, 5 AZ commits. So much for locking down CA.

This caught my attention: William Jones flipped from us to K-State (to a coach who's been on the job for 3 days)

The sky is not falling, but this staff isn't scaring anyone in the pac-12 with their recruiting acumen.
The records at Rivals go back to 2002. Since then, this is the first time that Cal has not signed at least one four star from the state of California.
A couple of things to keep in mind:

- Cal will sign two California 4 Stars in the form of bounce backs Devon Modster and Kekoa Crawford
- This is a large class - 28 players and will likely come out at just over 3 stars per player, behind only UW, Oregon, USC, Stanford and Utah in the Pac 12.
- In 2018, Cal finished 9th in the Pac 12 with a 2.82 average stars per player class so progress is clear
- In 30 years of following Football recruiting and talking to college coaches all over the country, one thing becomes clear: It's never about who you miss on, it's all about whether the players you do get can contribute towards a 10+ win team.
Another Bear
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510 Bear said:

One thing I also wonder about: is there a P5 program that has a comparable level of W-L success over the last decade but is succeeding on the recruiting trail more than we are? If there are a few such programs, then yeah, our staff's recruiting abilities are suspect.
The elephant in the room: ACADEMICS, not a jock school, not a FB school...scary competition that can grind up the best. Sure those are excuses but if you're honest, that has to run through a kids mind. Heck it ran through my mind when I got to Cal...these f*ckers are smart, ALL OF THEM, what did I get myself into. (Okay later I figured out some were also dumb or weirdos but could do the school work.)

Stanfurd has worked around this by going national and offering up stuff that only uber funded private schools can offer, like access to programs that don't require special admission like Haas.

Any way, one positive thing I see in all this is the Juco recruiting. JC recruits are a build in advantage to Cal and the staff figured that out. The JC and transfers recruits look strong.
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510 Bear
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Another Bear said:

Any way, one positive thing I see in all this is the Juco recruiting. JC recruits are a build in advantage to Cal and the staff figured that out. The JC and transfers recruits look strong.
Yeah, I'm not sure why some are saying our JC/transfer recruits are some kind of desperation plan Z. We seem to have landed some decent talent that, unlike all the HS kids, can contribute right away. Many on this board were saying Wilcox & co need to mine that route this year, and they did.
72CalBear
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I am certainly not panic stricken. USC has lost this time around to UW and Oregon and Ucla has a small class thus far. We've talked enough about the ***** star system to warrant some caution even though those 4-5 star recruits tend to be game breakers. I trust Wilcox more than my silly opinions. What's wrong with Texas recruits?
AEM80
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It's not like they didn't try to recruit local prospects; just just weren't real successful. I could care less about the number of recruits from Texas, or Arizona for that matter. They look like pretty good players.
okaydo
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71Bear
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BearGreg said:

71Bear said:

StarsDoMatter said:


The sky is not falling. It's not pretty either..

We whiffed on tons of elite Nor-Cal recruits (well, all of them). We whiffed on every 4-star in the state of California. Has that ever happened before? Now, we're back door covering our butts with transfers and JCs. 5 TX, 5 AZ commits. So much for locking down CA.

This caught my attention: William Jones flipped from us to K-State (to a coach who's been on the job for 3 days)

The sky is not falling, but this staff isn't scaring anyone in the pac-12 with their recruiting acumen.
The records at Rivals go back to 2002. Since then, this is the first time that Cal has not signed at least one four star from the state of California.
A couple of things to keep in mind:

- Cal will sign two California 4 Stars in the form of bounce backs Devon Modster and Kekoa Crawford
- This is a large class - 28 players and will likely come out at just over 3 stars per player, behind only UW, Oregon, USC, Stanford and Utah in the Pac 12.
- In 2018, Cal finished 9th in the Pac 12 with a 2.82 average stars per player class so progress is clear
- In 30 years of following Football recruiting and talking to college coaches all over the country, one thing becomes clear: It's never about who you miss on, it's all about whether the players you do get can contribute towards a 10+ win team.

I guess if your goal is to be middle of the pack (behind the five schools you mentioned), then there should be zero disappointment. However, if the goal is to be at the top, Cal needs to do a LOT better on the recruiting trail. I expected much more progress this year. Also, Modster and Crawford are used merchandise. They may work out but they are not shiny and new. The statement that Cal failed to sign any four stars from the state stands. Lastly, Crawford is a transfer not a bounce back.
71Bear
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Another Bear said:

510 Bear said:

One thing I also wonder about: is there a P5 program that has a comparable level of W-L success over the last decade but is succeeding on the recruiting trail more than we are? If there are a few such programs, then yeah, our staff's recruiting abilities are suspect.
The elephant in the room: ACADEMICS, not a jock school, not a FB school...scary competition that can grind up the best. Sure those are excuses but if you're honest, that has to run through a kids mind. Heck it ran through my mind when I got to Cal...these f*ckers are smart, ALL OF THEM, what did I get myself into. (Okay later I figured out some were also dumb or weirdos but could do the school work.)

Stanfurd has worked around this by going national and offering up stuff that only uber funded private schools can offer, like access to programs that don't require special admission like Haas.

Any way, one positive thing I see in all this is the Juco recruiting. JC recruits are a build in advantage to Cal and the staff figured that out. The JC and transfers recruits look strong.
I guess the fact that Stanford signed four players, including two four stars, from the Bay Area doesn't count.

Academics are nothing more than a loser's lament. If you are any good, your turn that factor into a positive (see LSJU) instead of whining about it.....

MilleniaBear
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-1

Cal has that unfortunate history of keeping kids eligible and a poor APR. Parents and recruits see that and are wary. I know we lost one recruit years ago for just that reason. Private schools can get very creative to keep kids eligible - public schools can't (see North Carolina).
edg64
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StarsDoMatter said:


The sky is not falling. It's not pretty either..

We whiffed on tons of elite Nor-Cal recruits (well, all of them). We whiffed on every 4-star in the state of California. Has that ever happened before? Now, we're back door covering our butts with transfers and JCs. 5 TX, 5 AZ commits. So much for locking down CA.

This caught my attention: William Jones flipped from us to K-State (to a coach who's been on the job for 3 days)

The sky is not falling, but this staff isn't scaring anyone in the pac-12 with their recruiting acumen.
The new recruits will surely be upbeat, positive after reading this thread
Another Bear
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510 Bear said:

Another Bear said:

Any way, one positive thing I see in all this is the Juco recruiting. JC recruits are a build in advantage to Cal and the staff figured that out. The JC and transfers recruits look strong.
Yeah, I'm not sure why some are saying our JC/transfer recruits are some kind of desperation plan Z. We seem to have landed some decent talent that, unlike all the HS kids, can contribute right away. Many on this board were saying Wilcox & co need to mine that route this year, and they did.
If it were only HS recruits, yes I'd say Cal had a down year but given the JC and transfers, I think it's a good class. Got a RB, WR, QB and OLB...all ready to play. I think the added maturity bumps things up half a star, or at the last should be noted. Things can always better but Cal filled needs and potentially saves a year or two of development.
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TandemBear
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I have never paid too much attention to the recruiting process in college, so please excuse my ignorance. But it seems readily apparent to me that college football (and probably other sports) need to implement a draft system similar to what the pros use. (And how many use it? NFL, MLB and the NBA, right?)

In other words, schools should be ranked and draft in reverse order; #1 pick goes to the worst team, on up. Now I realize it would be a challenge because of all the different league levels, but perhaps institute it for those teams in the top league.

Is it not totally obvious that with they way it works now, the top schools continuously get the pick of the litter which just ensures their dominance for years to come? Those perennial winners simply become football factories while the also-rans toil in perpetual obscurity.

If the pros utilize this, why not NCAA? Why isn't parity promoted so conferences have competitive games and the outcome isn't just a foregone conclusion - or at least for the most part? Why should programs like Cal, a big program with over a hundred years of history and half a billion dollar facilities and a huge fanbase wishing and hoping for success some day (that seems to never come) settle for not being competitive? Why agree to participate in this rigged system?

Again, if the pros use it, there must be reason why. I think it's to allow all teams to be competitive so that the league stays interesting. Otherwise, perennial powerhouses would just win and win and the other teams would be perennial losers. The rest of the country's fans would lose interest and thus the NFL would lose status, and more importantly, money!

So until this happens, I don't expect Cal to EVER land enough 4 or 5 star athletes to be competitive. Sure, we land the occasional DeSean Jackson and discover the diamond-in-the-rough Aaron Rodgers, but I don't think we'll ever challenge for the conference championship and definitely not a national championship with the system the way it is. Same old same old if you ask me.

But if anyone can provide a brief history of the issue, please educate me! Thanks!
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