(aka the Cheez-It Bowl minus sponsorship)

Here's the whole game video, along with the places to skip to so you only watch UCLA on offense.



Skip to 10:15
Skip to 20:04
Skip to 21:45
Skip to 36:12
Skip to 48:00
Skip to 54:59

2nd Half
Skip to 1:13:22
Skip to 1:36:30
Skip to 1:51:43
Skip to 2:10:10

All Passes Thrown In Game - Play by Play
Skip to 10:15

1st & 10 at UCLA 36
(13:17 - 1st) Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan Lasley

2nd & 6 at KSU 49
(12:10 - 1st) Devon Modster pass incomplete to Theo Howard

3rd & 6 at KSU 49
(12:04 - 1st) Devon Modster pass incomplete to Theo Howard

4th & 6 at KSU 49
(11:55 - 1st) Stefan Flintoft punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 4

Skip to 20:04

UCLA intercepts Kansas State on UCLA 31

Skip to 21:45

1st & 10 at UCLA 31
(7:03 - 1st) Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 4 yds to the UCLA 35

3rd & 11 at UCLA 30
(5:55 - 1st) Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 18 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10 at UCLA 48
(5:16 - 1st) Devon Modster pass complete to Christian Pabico for 11 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST down

3rd & 6 at KSU 37
(4:04 - 1st) UCLA Penalty, False Start (Jordan Wilson) to the KanSt 42

3rd & 11 at KSU 42
(3:35 - 1st) Devon Modster run for 10 yds to the KanSt 32

2nd & 11 at KSU 31
(2:23 - 1st) Kolton Miller run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 34 (was a backwards pass from Modster)

3rd & 14 at KSU 34
(1:34 - 1st) Devon Modster run for 9 yds to the KanSt 25

4th & 5 at KSU 25
(1:00 - 1st) JJ Molson 44 Yd Field Goal

Skip to 36:12

2nd & 11 at UCLA 13
(14:24 - 2nd) Modster, Devon pass complete to Lasley, Jordan for 4 yards to the UCLA17, PENALTY UCLA illegal block (Miller, Kolton) 6 yards to the UCLA7, NO PLAY.

2nd & 17 at UCLA 7
(14:07 - 2nd) Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 16 yds to the UCLA 23

1st & 10 at UCLA 29
(13:04 - 2nd) Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 9 yds to the UCLA 38

1st & 10 at UCLA 41
(12:29 - 2nd) Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 7 yds to the UCLA 48

3rd & 3 at UCLA 48
(11:34 - 2nd) Jordan Lasley 52 Yd pass from Devon Modster (JJ Molson Kick) (Note: This was a WR screen, not a long pass downfield)

Skip to 48:00

2nd & 8 at UCLA 30
(9:25 - 2nd) Theo Howard 70 Yd pass from Devon Modster (JJ Molson Kick) (WR was wide open, pass led WR perfectly)

Skip to 54:59

1st & 10 at UCLA 14
(7:05 - 2nd) Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 18 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST down

2nd & 6 at UCLA 36
(6:18 - 2nd) Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 10 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10 at UCLA 46
(5:46 - 2nd) Devon Modster pass incomplete

3rd & 6 at 50
(5:04 - 2nd) Devon Modster pass incomplete, broken up by Bronson Massie (knocked down by rushing DL)

4th & 6 at 50
(4:56 - 2nd) Stefan Flintoft punt for 43 yds , D.J. Reed returns for no gain to the KanSt 7

Skip to 59:40 for Jedd Fisch endorsement

Skip to 1:13:22

1st & 10 at UCLA 19
(14:41 - 3rd) Devon Modster pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 9 yds to the UCLA 28

2nd & 1 at UCLA 28
(14:21 - 3rd) Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 11 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST down

4th & 2 at UCLA 47
(12:49 - 3rd) Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 2 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10 at UCLA 49
(12:18 - 3rd) Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan Lasley (long pass overthrown)

3rd & 11 at UCLA 48
(11:27 - 3rd) Devon Modster pass incomplete to Eldridge Massington (dropped pass, could have been better thrown)

4th & 11 at UCLA 48
(11:19 - 3rd) Stefan Flintoft punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 26

Skip to 1:36:30

1st & 10 at UCLA 27
(4:13 - 3rd) Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan Lasley (pass on target and dropped)

2nd & 10 at UCLA 27
(4:03 - 3rd) Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 8 yds to the UCLA 35

2nd & 10 at UCLA 46
(1:52 - 3rd) Devon Modster pass incomplete, broken up by Trey Dishon (tipped by rushing DL)

3rd & 10 at UCLA 46
(1:41 - 3rd) Devon Modster pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 6 at 50
(1:09 - 3rd) Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan Lasley (little too long on a medium-long pass, coverage was pretty good)

Skip to 1:51:43

1st & 10 at UCLA 21
(13:41 - 4th) Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 5 yds to the UCLA 26

2nd & 5 at UCLA 26
(13:11 - 4th) Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 3 yds to the UCLA 29

3rd & 2 at UCLA 29
(12:52 - 4th) Devon Modster pass incomplete to Christian Pabico (long pass, hit WR in one hand, coverage was good)

4th & 2 at UCLA 29
(12:40 - 4th) Stefan Flintoft punt for 65 yds , D.J. Reed returns for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 2

Skip to 2:10:10

1st & 10 at UCLA 25
(4:28 - 4th) Devon Modster pass incomplete to Theo Howard (throw was short)

2nd & 10 at UCLA 25
(4:23 - 4th) Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 18 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10 at UCLA 43
(3:55 - 4th) Modster, Devon rush for 7 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY UCLA holding (Tagaloa, Boss) 10 yards to the UCLA33, NO PLAY.

1st & 20 at UCLA 33
(3:42 - 4th) Devon Modster pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 6 yds to the UCLA 39

2nd & 14 at UCLA 39
(3:20 - 4th) Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 5 yds to the UCLA 44

3rd & 9 at UCLA 44
(2:55 - 4th) Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan Wilson (receiver was double-covered, pass was off)

4th & 9 at UCLA 44
(2:51 - 4th) Modster, Devon pass complete to Lasley, Jordan for 11 yards to the KANSASST45, PENALTY UCLA holding (Toran, Najee) 10 yards to the UCLA34, NO PLAY.

4th & 19 at UCLA 34
(2:24 - 4th) Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 9 yds to the UCLA 43

My thoughts.

Generally speaking, Modster doesn't miss receivers by much, regardless of whether they're wide open (in which case the ball is where it's supposed to be) or covered (most of the time, the receiver will at least get a hand on the ball. Where this is the most different for us is in the medium to long game, as Modster generally is about as accurate in the medium game as he is in the short game and not as accurate in the long game (nobody is perfect in the long game, not even Aaron Rodgers so this is no slight on him), but noticeably more accurate than our QB's. He had one wide open receiver on a deep pattern in the game and hit him in stride for a TD.

It's important to keep in mind that in the game against us and also in this game, they gave him a lot of WR screen passes. In watching them, you can see that the UCLA receivers (Lasley in particular) are much better gaining yards after the catch than ours are. Those plays likely aren't going to generate the yardage for us that they did for UCLA and they do represent a decent chunk of the yardage Modster gets.

If i was to only watch one half of the game, I would watch the second half, not the first. I think that in judging a QB, it's important to look at the drives that didn't work and see why. And in watching those drives, I became more encouraged about Modster. He was still generally accurate in the short to medium game. What went away from the first half is that he didn't have that wide open guy down the field or a receiver breaking a simple screen pass into a 50 yard score. But generally speaking, he was still making those dink passes that don't impress NFL scouts, but mean you keep gaining positive yardage when you call them on first and second down to put you in manageable third down situations.

Also, when he was in third and long situations, I think he acquitted himself very well. He generally pushed the ball down the field where he needed to and converted some bad situations caused by penalties or negative plays. Also, he avoided being sacked in the game.

if you're looking for a unicorn type QB that can make plays by himself and elevate the whole team by sheer talent, I think you're going to be disappointed. If you are more realistic and looking for a QB that is generally accurate and doesn't do stupid things, then I think you're going to be happy. But changing the QB alone will not bring us all of what we need. Our running game has to get better. Our pass blocking has to get better. Our receivers need to be better in all regards.

But there's no doubt that unless we fail to upgrade our offensive staff and they ruin him, he is an upgrade from the guys we played this year.

you left out 48:00 in the first half.
That is a very notable drive and throw.
Modster shows he can throw deep and accurately.
Also, the commentators talked about his skill set at one point, explaining that throwing deep is one of his strengths.

The problem in analyzing Modster is that his receivers make him look good.
That is not to say he isn't good.
But Modster is going to be throwing to guys at Cal that may make him look bad.
I mean, how do we know that some of the INTs are not blown routes by our WRs?
The WRs rarely if ever get separation and often drop or tip accurate passes.

Personally I think, as bad as our QBs look, it's the WRs that are most suspect.
Injuries, departures and lack of recruiting indicates that there are big problems with coaching there.

The simplest thing would be to replace Edwards with someone (Geoff McCarther?) and see if that give the offense a couple of ticks up in performance.

Don't get me wrong, I am not a big fan of Baldwin or Tui at this point. But at least those guys have a pac-12 track record. Baldwin beat pac-12 teams at E. Washington and Tui has coached at successful pac-12 programs.

I don't have anything against Edwards but it really doesn't seem like he has done much.

Anyway, I am excited about Modster and he looks at least as good as our current group, even on a good day. But for Modster to look like he did at UCLA, we need more changes. It helps that we are getting immediate help at WR.

Some additional notes: K State had the 2nd worst pass defense in the country in the game.
It seems that, if anything, Modster has too strong of an arm, overthrowing his receivers even on long throws.

Yogi Bea said:

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if you're looking for a unicorn type QB that can make plays by himself and elevate the whole team by sheer talent, I think you're going to be disappointed. If you are more realistic and looking for a QB that is generally accurate and doesn't do stupid things, then I think you're going to be happy. But changing the QB alone will not bring us all of what we need. Our running game has to get better. Our pass blocking has to get better. Our receivers need to be better in all regards.

But there's no doubt that unless we fail to upgrade our offensive staff and they ruin him, he is an upgrade from the guys we played this year.

---

Is that asking for too much? That type of QB paired with this defense would have taken Cal a long way this season.

heartofthebear said:

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you left out 48:00 in the first half.
That is a very notable drive and throw.
Modster shows he can throw deep and accurately.
Also, the commentators talked about his skill set at one point, explaining that throwing deep is one of his strengths.

The problem in analyzing Modster is that his receivers make him look good.
That is not to say he isn't good.
But Modster is going to be throwing to guys at Cal that may make him look bad.
I mean, how do we know that some of the INTs are not blown routes by our WRs?
The WRs rarely if ever get separation and often drop or tip accurate passes.

Personally I think, as bad as our QBs look, it's the WRs that are most suspect.
Injuries, departures and lack of recruiting indicates that there are big problems with coaching there.

The simplest thing would be to replace Edwards with someone (Geoff McCarther?) and see if that give the offense a couple of ticks up in performance.

Don't get me wrong, I am not a big fan of Baldwin or Tui at this point. But at least those guys have a pac-12 track record. Baldwin beat pac-12 teams at E. Washington and Tui has coached at successful pac-12 programs.

I don't have anything against Edwards but it really doesn't seem like he has done much.

Anyway, I am excited about Modster and he looks at least as good as our current group, even on a good day. But for Modster to look like he did at UCLA, we need more changes. It helps that we are getting immediate help at WR.

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Being in the PAC 12 and succeeding there are two different things. Tui's career in the conference probably ends the day he leaves Cal. I've been supporting Baldwin hoping he'd open up with a better QB, but yesterday's play calling was mind blowing y bad.

Yogi Bear said:

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My thoughts.

Generally speaking, Modster doesn't miss receivers by much, regardless of whether they're wide open (in which case the ball is where it's supposed to be) or covered (most of the time, the receiver will at least get a hand on the ball. Where this is the most different for us is in the medium to long game, as Modster generally is about as accurate in the medium game as he is in the short game and not as accurate in the long game (nobody is perfect in the long game, not even Aaron Rodgers so this is no slight on him), but noticeably more accurate than our QB's. He had one wide open receiver on a deep pattern in the game and hit him in stride for a TD.

It's important to keep in mind that in the game against us and also in this game, they gave him a lot of WR screen passes. In watching them, you can see that the UCLA receivers (Lasley in particular) are much better gaining yards after the catch than ours are. Those plays likely aren't going to generate the yardage for us that they did for UCLA and they do represent a decent chunk of the yardage Modster gets.

If i was to only watch one half of the game, I would watch the second half, not the first. I think that in judging a QB, it's important to look at the drives that didn't work and see why. And in watching those drives, I became more encouraged about Modster. He was still generally accurate in the short to medium game. What went away from the first half is that he didn't have that wide open guy down the field or a receiver breaking a simple screen pass into a 50 yard score. But generally speaking, he was still making those dink passes that don't impress NFL scouts, but mean you keep gaining positive yardage when you call them on first and second down to put you in manageable third down situations.

Also, when he was in third and long situations, I think he acquitted himself very well. He generally pushed the ball down the field where he needed to and converted some bad situations caused by penalties or negative plays. Also, he avoided being sacked in the game.

if you're looking for a unicorn type QB that can make plays by himself and elevate the whole team by sheer talent, I think you're going to be disappointed. If you are more realistic and looking for a QB that is generally accurate and doesn't do stupid things, then I think you're going to be happy. But changing the QB alone will not bring us all of what we need. Our running game has to get better. Our pass blocking has to get better. Our receivers need to be better in all regards.

But there's no doubt that unless we fail to upgrade our offensive staff and they ruin him, he is an upgrade from the guys we played this year.

---

Thanks for the systematic review, Yogi. What you describe is what I'm looking for and what I meant by clearly better. We need to improve in all areas, but the fact that our coaching must improve doesn't mean our QBing doesn't have to.

LACalFan said:

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Yogi Bea said:

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if you're looking for a unicorn type QB that can make plays by himself and elevate the whole team by sheer talent, I think you're going to be disappointed. If you are more realistic and looking for a QB that is generally accurate and doesn't do stupid things, then I think you're going to be happy. But changing the QB alone will not bring us all of what we need. Our running game has to get better. Our pass blocking has to get better. Our receivers need to be better in all regards.

But there's no doubt that unless we fail to upgrade our offensive staff and they ruin him, he is an upgrade from the guys we played this year.

---

Is that asking for too much? That type of QB paired with this defense would have taken Cal a long way this season.

---

I think, at the very least, Modster would be a good "game manager" type of QB to complement a team with a defensive identity. He could end up being quite a bit more with a supportive cast of players and coaches.

Keep in mind that Modster was playing on a UCLA team with significant problems on defense. That can affect ball field position, time of possession etc. Modster would not have that problem under Wilcox/DeRuyter and that could elevate his stats beyond what they would be otherwise.

Yogi Bear - thank you for a great post, and all the work you put in to construct it and provide your analysis and opinions! After last night, I was looking for something to feel positive about...

Thanks for doing this work and for posting!

Looking forward to the QB competition. Having Modster in the group should definitely change the dynamic!

heartofthebear said:

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Personally I think, as bad as our QBs look, it's the WRs that are most suspect.

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I agree with this

100% agree. My UCLA buddy was glad we hire Tui and felt QBs got worse under him. I think success he has had as a coach is due to the talent on his rosters, not a result of his coaching.

I think everyone has had a teacher that is clearly elite in their field but is not good at translating that knowledge to pupils. I believe that is the case with Tui.

GBear said:

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100% agree. My UCLA buddy was glad we hire Tui and felt QBs got worse under him. I think success he has had as a coach is due to the talent on his rosters, not a result of his coaching.

I think everyone has had a teacher that is clearly elite in their field but is not good at translating that knowledge to pupils. I believe that is the case with Tui.

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I think the problem is Tuiasosopo has never been elite in his field. Take a look at his statistics and compare them to our QB's. Pretty similar.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/marques-tuiasosopo-1.html

Yogi Bear said:

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heartofthebear said:

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Personally I think, as bad as our QBs look, it's the WRs that are most suspect.

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I agree with this

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me as well and thanks yogi for the in depth analysis. Good work.