Why the P12 struggles with finding talented DLers

5,076 Views | 32 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Fyght4Cal
71Bear
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In a recent article at The Athletic detailing why the P12 has struggled against other P5 conferences, one statistic stood out...

Based on data from the National Federation of State High School Associations, here is the rate at which the average HS player went on to be drafted as an NFL DLer (from 2011-18):

Georgia 1 in 9,465
Florida 1 in 10,119
South Carolina 1 in 12,574
North Carolina 1 in 12,996
Louisiana 1 in 15,929
Pennsylvania 1 in 16,041
Virginia 1 in 17,950
Alabama 1 in 18,051
Ohio 1 in 18,688
P-12 Footprint 1 in 33,591
California 1 in 35,199
Texas 1 in 37,793

In the eight recruiting classes from 2011-18, the entire P12 recruiting footprint produced 83 players that ranked within the class' top 25 at their respective position along the DL. Over that same time span, the state of Georgia with 1/6th the total number of HS players, produced 72 top 25 players at their respective position on the DL.

One P12 DC said, "It's just amazing how many quality and big defensive linemen you see in the South. You just don't see those kinds of guys on the West Coast".

Since the key to success in football is developing strong lines on both sides of the ball, this explains why the SEC has a distinct edge over their competition.
calumnus
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71Bear said:

In a recent article at The Athletic detailing why the P12 has struggled against other P5 conferences, one statistic stood out...

Based on data from the National Federation of State High School Associations, here is the rate at which the average HS player went on to be drafted as an NFL DLer (from 2011-18):

Georgia 1 in 9,465
Florida 1 in 10,119
South Carolina 1 in 12,574
North Carolina 1 in 12,996
Louisiana 1 in 15,929
Pennsylvania 1 in 16,041
Virginia 1 in 17,950
Alabama 1 in 18,051
Ohio 1 in 18,688
P-12 Footprint 1 in 33,591
California 1 in 35,199
Texas 1 in 37,793

In the eight recruiting classes from 2011-18, the entire P12 recruiting footprint produced 83 players that ranked within the class' top 25 at their respective position along the DL. Over that same time span, the state of Georgia with 1/6th the total number of HS players, produced 72 top 25 players at their respective position on the DL.

One P12 DC said, "It's just amazing how many quality and big defensive linemen you see in the South. You just don't see those kinds of guys on the West Coast".

Since the key to success in football is developing strong lines on both sides of the ball, this explains why the SEC has a distinct edge over their competition.


Of course, California is far bigger and has far more high schools than most of the states listed, so it may actually produce more future NFL DLs.

If we are looking at rates per thousand, how does Hawaii rank?
wifeisafurd
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71Bear said:

In a recent article at The Athletic detailing why the P12 has struggled against other P5 conferences, one statistic stood out...

Based on data from the National Federation of State High School Associations, here is the rate at which the average HS player went on to be drafted as an NFL DLer (from 2011-18):

Georgia 1 in 9,465
Florida 1 in 10,119
South Carolina 1 in 12,574
North Carolina 1 in 12,996
Louisiana 1 in 15,929
Pennsylvania 1 in 16,041
Virginia 1 in 17,950
Alabama 1 in 18,051
Ohio 1 in 18,688
P-12 Footprint 1 in 33,591
California 1 in 35,199
Texas 1 in 37,793

In the eight recruiting classes from 2011-18, the entire P12 recruiting footprint produced 83 players that ranked within the class' top 25 at their respective position along the DL. Over that same time span, the state of Georgia with 1/6th the total number of HS players, produced 72 top 25 players at their respective position on the DL.

One P12 DC said, "It's just amazing how many quality and big defensive linemen you see in the South. You just don't see those kinds of guys on the West Coast".

Since the key to success in football is developing strong lines on both sides of the ball, this explains why the SEC has a distinct edge over their competition.
It's because we eat too much kale in California....
ducky23
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wifeisafurd said:

71Bear said:

In a recent article at The Athletic detailing why the P12 has struggled against other P5 conferences, one statistic stood out...

Based on data from the National Federation of State High School Associations, here is the rate at which the average HS player went on to be drafted as an NFL DLer (from 2011-18):

Georgia 1 in 9,465
Florida 1 in 10,119
South Carolina 1 in 12,574
North Carolina 1 in 12,996
Louisiana 1 in 15,929
Pennsylvania 1 in 16,041
Virginia 1 in 17,950
Alabama 1 in 18,051
Ohio 1 in 18,688
P-12 Footprint 1 in 33,591
California 1 in 35,199
Texas 1 in 37,793

In the eight recruiting classes from 2011-18, the entire P12 recruiting footprint produced 83 players that ranked within the class' top 25 at their respective position along the DL. Over that same time span, the state of Georgia with 1/6th the total number of HS players, produced 72 top 25 players at their respective position on the DL.

One P12 DC said, "It's just amazing how many quality and big defensive linemen you see in the South. You just don't see those kinds of guys on the West Coast".

Since the key to success in football is developing strong lines on both sides of the ball, this explains why the SEC has a distinct edge over their competition.
It's because we eat too much kale in California....


I was actually going to say the exact same thing.

And while you may be half kidding, there's probably something to this.

I'm too lazy to look it up, but someone should look at the average weight of a 18 year old male living in the south compared to kids who live in California.
AunBear89
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ducky23 said:

wifeisafurd said:

71Bear said:

In a recent article at The Athletic detailing why the P12 has struggled against other P5 conferences, one statistic stood out...

Based on data from the National Federation of State High School Associations, here is the rate at which the average HS player went on to be drafted as an NFL DLer (from 2011-18):

Georgia 1 in 9,465
Florida 1 in 10,119
South Carolina 1 in 12,574
North Carolina 1 in 12,996
Louisiana 1 in 15,929
Pennsylvania 1 in 16,041
Virginia 1 in 17,950
Alabama 1 in 18,051
Ohio 1 in 18,688
P-12 Footprint 1 in 33,591
California 1 in 35,199
Texas 1 in 37,793

In the eight recruiting classes from 2011-18, the entire P12 recruiting footprint produced 83 players that ranked within the class' top 25 at their respective position along the DL. Over that same time span, the state of Georgia with 1/6th the total number of HS players, produced 72 top 25 players at their respective position on the DL.

One P12 DC said, "It's just amazing how many quality and big defensive linemen you see in the South. You just don't see those kinds of guys on the West Coast".

Since the key to success in football is developing strong lines on both sides of the ball, this explains why the SEC has a distinct edge over their competition.
It's because we eat too much kale in California....


I was actually going to say the exact same thing.

And while you may be half kidding, there's probably something to this.

I'm too lazy to look it up, but someone should look at the average weight of a 18 year old male living in the south compared to kids who live in California.


So... we need to eat more chicken fried steak and biscuits and gravy, and less quinoa and kale if we want to be good at football?
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
wifeisafurd
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ducky23 said:

wifeisafurd said:

71Bear said:

In a recent article at The Athletic detailing why the P12 has struggled against other P5 conferences, one statistic stood out...

Based on data from the National Federation of State High School Associations, here is the rate at which the average HS player went on to be drafted as an NFL DLer (from 2011-18):

Georgia 1 in 9,465
Florida 1 in 10,119
South Carolina 1 in 12,574
North Carolina 1 in 12,996
Louisiana 1 in 15,929
Pennsylvania 1 in 16,041
Virginia 1 in 17,950
Alabama 1 in 18,051
Ohio 1 in 18,688
P-12 Footprint 1 in 33,591
California 1 in 35,199
Texas 1 in 37,793

In the eight recruiting classes from 2011-18, the entire P12 recruiting footprint produced 83 players that ranked within the class' top 25 at their respective position along the DL. Over that same time span, the state of Georgia with 1/6th the total number of HS players, produced 72 top 25 players at their respective position on the DL.

One P12 DC said, "It's just amazing how many quality and big defensive linemen you see in the South. You just don't see those kinds of guys on the West Coast".

Since the key to success in football is developing strong lines on both sides of the ball, this explains why the SEC has a distinct edge over their competition.
It's because we eat too much kale in California....


I was actually going to say the exact same thing.

And while you may be half kidding, there's probably something to this.

I'm too lazy to look it up, but someone should look at the average weight of a 18 year old male living in the south compared to kids who live in California.
Exactly, I was half kidding. When I go to the South, people just seem bigger, even if they are in shape.
heartofthebear
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LOL
Being a vegetarian has absolutely nothing to do with being less able to be physically large.
Where do Rhinos, Hippos, Elephants, bears and Bulls get most of their protein?
From plants and insects
It is really only cats that rely almost completely on meat for their diet and they are not particularly large compared to the others listed.

I suspect the real issue is cultural differences.

Fyght4Cal
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Among Georgia's advantages in DL production:

1. More rabid football fans
2. More Black people
3. More people who eat like Southerners
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
Big C
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Fyght4Cal said:

Among Georgia's advantages in DL production:

1. More rabid football fans
2. More Black people
3. More people who eat like Southerners
Most people don't realize that California's population is only about 6-7% African American.
Fyght4Cal
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Big C said:

Fyght4Cal said:

Among Georgia's advantages in DL production:

1. More rabid football fans
2. More Black people
3. More people who eat like Southerners
Most people don't realize that California's population is only about 6-7% African American.
Right. And dropping. Little ol' Georgia has a million more Black people.
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
ducky23
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I don't buy the "more black people" argument unless there are stats showing that the south also produces more WRs and rbs than the west coast (which could actually be true).

Regardless, if the westcoast doesn't have any dlineman, we should be attacking Hawai'i. Cal is popular in the islands, no reason we can't dominate recruiting there
Yogi011
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Big C said:

Fyght4Cal said:

Among Georgia's advantages in DL production:

1. More rabid football fans
2. More Black people
3. More people who eat like Southerners
Most people don't realize that California's population is only about 6-7% African American.
Lack of plantations meant we weren't importing Africans to pick our crops for us. The ones who live here had ancestors that came by choice, not by force.
Fyght4Cal
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ducky23 said:

I don't buy the "more black people" argument unless there are stats showing that the south also produces more WRs and rbs than the west coast (which could actually be true).

Regardless, if the westcoast doesn't have any dlineman, we should be attacking Hawai'i. Cal is popular in the islands, no reason we can't dominate recruiting there
I gave you three advantages. But you decided to focus on one. Not sure how RBs & WRs relate to the production of DLs, but ok, go awf, son.

Besides, you don't have to buy it. The proof is in the pudding. And ironically, your solution is, "Let's get more Polynesians."

It's all, dare I say, ducky, ducky. I always enjoy your posts.
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
Fyght4Cal
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BearNakedLadies said:

Big C said:

Fyght4Cal said:

Among Georgia's advantages in DL production:

1. More rabid football fans
2. More Black people
3. More people who eat like Southerners
Most people don't realize that California's population is only about 6-7% African American.
Lack of plantations meant we weren't importing Africans to pick our crops for us. The ones who live here had ancestors that came by choice, not by force.
Yup, my ancestors came West by choice (kinda; let's just say certain of them ran afoul of Southern "traditions").

Anywhoo, 55% of African Americans reside on the South. At 10% the West is home to the lowest proportion of African Americans.
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
dajo9
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Blacks with genes predisposed to becoming RB and WR moved while blacks with genes predisposed to DL stayed closer to home?
American Vermin
Fyght4Cal
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dajo9 said:

Blacks with genes predisposed to becoming RB and WR moved while blacks with genes predisposed to DL stayed closer to home?
That's not it, chief. Although in the case of Florida, there may be some validity to all that speed coming from ancestors who successfully outran dogs, horses and slave patrols to escape to the then-Spanish territory.
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
ducky23
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Fyght4Cal said:

ducky23 said:

I don't buy the "more black people" argument unless there are stats showing that the south also produces more WRs and rbs than the west coast (which could actually be true).

Regardless, if the westcoast doesn't have any dlineman, we should be attacking Hawai'i. Cal is popular in the islands, no reason we can't dominate recruiting there
I gave you three advantages. But you decided to focus on one. Not sure how RBs & WRs relate to the production of DLs, but ok, go awf, son.

Besides, you don't have to buy it. The proof is in the pudding. And ironically, your solution is, "Let's get more Polynesians."

It's all, dare I say, ducky, ducky. I always enjoy your posts.


Well I wasn't just responding to you specifically, as many people had the same answer.

My point is that it's very possible that the south just produces better football players in general because there's more black people there.

bUt if that's true, the title to this thread should be changed to "why the Pac-12 struggles with finding talented football players" and not just restrict it to dlineman.

But if the argument is that the south produces better dlinamen (at a greater rate than any other position - an argument the op seems to suggest) then you need to look beyond "the south has more black people" type answers

Bear8
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I think we should define it even more carefully. I believe the comments so far are really directed at nose tackle, those big guys who have big thighs and bigger bellies and can control the gap on either side of the center. They are not pass rushers, but find their purpose in stopping the run.

On the other hand, defensive linemen such as defensive ends are not as bulky and may weigh between 250-280 and ideally be tall like 6/5 or 6/6. These guys are quick but strong with an aim of sacking the QB. They should have long arms to knock down passes. These players can be found anywhere in the United States. Matter of fact, they might be found in great numbers on the West Coast. I say here because we have better eating habits than those big dudes who man the middle of the defensive line. We produce taller players who are not fat but are well-proportioned and quick. Good weather allows them to practice all year round. So when we talk about DL different guys contribute different skills and we need to recognize it.
Fyght4Cal
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ducky23 said:

Fyght4Cal said:

ducky23 said:

I don't buy the "more black people" argument unless there are stats showing that the south also produces more WRs and rbs than the west coast (which could actually be true).

Regardless, if the westcoast doesn't have any dlineman, we should be attacking Hawai'i. Cal is popular in the islands, no reason we can't dominate recruiting there
I gave you three advantages. But you decided to focus on one. Not sure how RBs & WRs relate to the production of DLs, but ok, go awf, son.

Besides, you don't have to buy it. The proof is in the pudding. And ironically, your solution is, "Let's get more Polynesians."

It's all, dare I say, ducky, ducky. I always enjoy your posts.


Well I wasn't just responding to you specifically, as many people had the same answer.

My point is that it's very possible that the south just produces better football players in general because there's more black people there.

bUt if that's true, the title to this thread should be changed to "why the Pac-12 struggles with finding talented football players" and not just restrict it to dlineman.

But if the argument is that the south produces better dlinamen (at a greater rate than any other position - an argument the op seems to suggest) then you need to look beyond "the south has more black people" type answers


How could I forget the 4th key, in the South they still beat their kids. Whuppin's make angry people. Angry people make great DLinemen.
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
82gradDLSdad
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Hush puppies, my friends, hush puppies. We import them from the south and we will have plenty of big kids. I'm getting fatter just thinking about eating a basket of hush puppies.
TheSouseFamily
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82gradDLSdad said:

Hush puppies, my friends, hush puppies. We import them from the south and we will have plenty of big kids. I'm getting fatter just thinking about eating a basket of hush puppies.


That's funny. I live in SEC/ACC country and just had hush puppies (with honey butter) yesterday while waiting for my pulled pork lunch.

As someone who lives here, I think those who mention diet/nutrition/obesity in the south are absolutely on the right track. People are simply larger here. As Fyght mentioned, there's also an racial component too and the factors that go into the entire population being larger are even more prevalent in the African-American community, unfortunately. Not good for overall health, but I'm pretty certain it yields a larger defensive lineman population.
diva1
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Thought I read once that out west the potential DL types are concentrating on hoops
calumnus
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diva1 said:

Thought I read once that out west the potential DL types are concentrating on hoops

In LA especially.

The rest are all recruited as TEs by Stanford.
calumnus
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The PAC-12 is second only to the SEC in NFL players per team:

https://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/91053/breaking-down-nfl-rosters-by-conferences-and-colleges
71Bear
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calumnus said:

The PAC-12 is second only to the SEC in NFL players per team:

https://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/91053/breaking-down-nfl-rosters-by-conferences-and-colleges
Just curious, what does that have to do with the original post?
Bear19
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71Bear said:

calumnus said:

The PAC-12 is second only to the SEC in NFL players per team:

https://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/91053/breaking-down-nfl-rosters-by-conferences-and-colleges
Just curious, what does that have to do with the original post?
Agree, not a lot that I can see. I've noticed, however, that many responders on BI indulge in a sort of stream of consciousness, writing posts that only tangentially touch on the original topic. In the case, the Pac-12 may not have many future NFL D-Linemen, but does contribute many players to the NFL at other positions.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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calumnus said:

The PAC-12 is second only to the SEC in NFL players per team:

https://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/91053/breaking-down-nfl-rosters-by-conferences-and-colleges
There might have been some changes since 2015.
calumnus
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71Bear said:

calumnus said:

The PAC-12 is second only to the SEC in NFL players per team:

https://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/91053/breaking-down-nfl-rosters-by-conferences-and-colleges
Just curious, what does that have to do with the original post?


"In a recent article at The Athletic detailing why the P12 has struggled against other P5 conferences, one statistic stood out..."

Yes, you highlighted DL, which then devolved into a discussion of demographics, but in the course of that it was lost that the PAC-12 is still second in producing NFL talent. Going further, if you had the choice, would you rather have a future NFL DL or a future NFL QB?
Yogi011
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calumnus said:

71Bear said:

calumnus said:

The PAC-12 is second only to the SEC in NFL players per team:

https://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/91053/breaking-down-nfl-rosters-by-conferences-and-colleges
Just curious, what does that have to do with the original post?


"In a recent article at The Athletic detailing why the P12 has struggled against other P5 conferences, one statistic stood out..."

Yes, you highlighted DL, which then devolved into a discussion of demographics, but in the course of that it was lost that the PAC-12 is still second in producing NFL talent. Going further, if you had the choice, would you rather have a future NFL DL or a future NFL QB?
In college, dominant linemen are worth more than dominant QB's IMO. In the NFL, I'd rather have the QB.
71Bear
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calumnus said:

71Bear said:

calumnus said:

The PAC-12 is second only to the SEC in NFL players per team:

https://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/91053/breaking-down-nfl-rosters-by-conferences-and-colleges
Just curious, what does that have to do with the original post?


"In a recent article at The Athletic detailing why the P12 has struggled against other P5 conferences, one statistic stood out..."

Yes, you highlighted DL, which then devolved into a discussion of demographics, but in the course of that it was lost that the PAC-12 is still second in producing NFL talent. Going further, if you had the choice, would you rather have a future NFL DL or a future NFL QB?
Because a thread goes off topic doesn't mean that you need to continue taking down a lost road.
calumnus
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71Bear said:

calumnus said:

71Bear said:

calumnus said:

The PAC-12 is second only to the SEC in NFL players per team:

https://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/91053/breaking-down-nfl-rosters-by-conferences-and-colleges
Just curious, what does that have to do with the original post?


"In a recent article at The Athletic detailing why the P12 has struggled against other P5 conferences, one statistic stood out..."

Yes, you highlighted DL, which then devolved into a discussion of demographics, but in the course of that it was lost that the PAC-12 is still second in producing NFL talent. Going further, if you had the choice, would you rather have a future NFL DL or a future NFL QB?
Because a thread goes off topic doesn't mean that you need to continue taking down a lost road.


How is the subject of whether the PAC-12 produces NFL talent in general "a lost road"? It was directly related to the topic under discussion and addresses a question brought up in the thread. If the PAC-12 produces fewer NFL DL than other conferences, it is not due to producing fewer NFL players overall, it is something about DL in particular. It informed the discussion.

Now, If I had brought up burritos, cheerleaders, real estate, stocks, favorite bands....

Anyways, interesting topic, thanks for introducing it.
Fyght4Cal
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71Bear said:

calumnus said:

71Bear said:

calumnus said:

The PAC-12 is second only to the SEC in NFL players per team:

https://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/91053/breaking-down-nfl-rosters-by-conferences-and-colleges
Just curious, what does that have to do with the original post?


"In a recent article at The Athletic detailing why the P12 has struggled against other P5 conferences, one statistic stood out..."

Yes, you highlighted DL, which then devolved into a discussion of demographics, but in the course of that it was lost that the PAC-12 is still second in producing NFL talent. Going further, if you had the choice, would you rather have a future NFL DL or a future NFL QB?
Because a thread goes off topic doesn't mean that you need to continue taking down a lost road.
"It's just amazing how many quality and big defensive linemen you see in the South," said one Pac-12 defensive coordinator. "You just don't see those kinds of guys on the West Coast."

Demographics, as well as geography, go to the heart of the questions about DLinemen in our footprint. I realize some aspects of the discussion make some people uncomfortable. That discomfort does not render those aspects off-topic.
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
71Bear
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Fyght4Cal said:

71Bear said:

calumnus said:

71Bear said:

calumnus said:

The PAC-12 is second only to the SEC in NFL players per team:

https://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/91053/breaking-down-nfl-rosters-by-conferences-and-colleges
Just curious, what does that have to do with the original post?


"In a recent article at The Athletic detailing why the P12 has struggled against other P5 conferences, one statistic stood out..."

Yes, you highlighted DL, which then devolved into a discussion of demographics, but in the course of that it was lost that the PAC-12 is still second in producing NFL talent. Going further, if you had the choice, would you rather have a future NFL DL or a future NFL QB?
Because a thread goes off topic doesn't mean that you need to continue taking down a lost road.
"It's just amazing how many quality and big defensive linemen you see in the South," said one Pac-12 defensive coordinator. "You just don't see those kinds of guys on the West Coast."

Demographics, as well as geography, go to the heart of the questions about DLinemen in our footprint. I realize some aspects of the discussion make some people uncomfortable. That discomfort does not render those aspects off-topic.
I agree 100%. What took the discussion off topic was the reference to the P12's overall effectiveness in sending players to the NFL. That had nothing to do with the topic of the OP. Obviously, the P12 has a long record of sending star players to the NFL, especially QB's. However, the paucity of highly skilled DLers is a notable exception. Given the value of that unit on a football team, it has had a material impact on the competitiveness of P12 schools vis a vis SEC schools.

Fyght4Cal
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Thank you for that clarification.
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
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