59bear said:

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Fyght4Cal said:

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I'm still trying to figure out Baldwin's system. But I do like our emphasis on the run/pass balance. Wilcox always emphasizes the importance of explosive plays (20+ yards). So clearly he wants quick strike capability, along with the ability to sustain drives. I expect that we will remain 'multiple', with increased attention on an effective ground game.

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I don't understand the confusion about Baldwin's system. To my (admittedly inexpert) eye, it is what about 80% of the teams in college ball run: QB set deep, receivers set wide with pre-snap motion incorporating some "RPO" or read option elements. It may be too multiple for our skill position talent which, IMO, is rather middling but I think Beau is trying to do what nearly everyone else is doing. The main alternatives seem to be: 1) some version of Leach's Air Raid; 2) some version of a ground based triple option; 3) traditional pro set or some modification thereof. I don't think we have the personnel for either option 1 or 2 and option 3 seems to be evolving at most schools that still use to something more like what we are doing, so I have no problem sticking with what we're doing and continuing to upgrade talent.

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Baldwin's offense is "multiple" and agree that most commonly it was a spread with the QB in shotgun and an RPO element. With nearly all runs between the tackles. WRs each run a pattern, but the patterns have no obvious connection to each other, nothing to get the WR open (the idea is more to spread the defense and have the QB make the right read).. Except when it wasn't. Sometimes it would seem like a grab bag of disparate ideas with plays pulled from a hat. We would go pro set, QB under center, playaction throw to the tight end for a big gain, then never run that again. Basically Baldwin's system is "we can do anything." Like Tedford's 2007-2012 offenses it needed editing. So it wasn't the "system" that was the issue, per se, it was Baldwin developing a coherent strategy and implementing it through effective playcalling that was the issue. Though clearly the heavy reliance on shotgun spread was not a good fit for our WRs and RBs over the last three years.

My thoughts are opened up a little if we get Rogers, Hunter and/or Burton. With a third year Garbers, o line back with depth and experience, improving WR Corps and lots of backs with upside, we may have some playmakers. Need to finish strong on recruiting offense though.

95bears said:

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It seems to me that Wilcox is building something of a coaches factory, and positioning Cal as an attractive, comfortable safe space for up-and-comers or folks that need to rehabilitate their resume. Just look at the care that has gone into showing BB the door and ensuring he has a soft landing, which I totally applaud. Also look at the staff's consistent comments about how great their peers are, and how well everyone works together.

Does an "It" guy really fit this meat and potatoes staff?

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I don't think an I.T guy would help with much other than improving the wireless connection.

On a more serious note, what is an "it" guy? If it's someone who is very good at his job, I'd be curious to know why we don't want that.

59bear said:

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Fyght4Cal said:

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I'm still trying to figure out Baldwin's system. But I do like our emphasis on the run/pass balance. Wilcox always emphasizes the importance of explosive plays (20+ yards). So clearly he wants quick strike capability, along with the ability to sustain drives. I expect that we will remain 'multiple', with increased attention on an effective ground game.

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I don't understand the confusion about Baldwin's system. To my (admittedly inexpert) eye, it is what about 80% of the teams in college ball run: QB set deep, receivers set wide with pre-snap motion incorporating some "RPO" or read option elements.

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I think if you have to use that many words to describe what someone's system is, it's not really a system at all unless you're the only guy in the country running it and haven't come up with a snappy name for it yet.

I think Baldwin does a little of everything, which means his system is nothing. I feel about football offenses the way I feel about people running for office. Stand for something, even if it's something not popular. I don't care if it's the flexbone or Air Raid, or pro set or whatever. Just definitely define what you're going to do and do it well.

At any rate, I'm glad I don't have to care about whatever the hell Baldwin is trying to do because now he's doing it for someone else.

Big C said:

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OaktownBear said:

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Big C said:

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Great thread question, KoreAm (and good timing!). I'm gonna go contrarian with it. NO, it doesn't need to compliment our defense. I honestly think that's something people say when they want to sound like they know football. What it needs to do is...

1. Score points
2. Move the ball
3. Not shoot itself in the foot with turnovers, penalties, minus yards, etc

I would go with something like an AirRaid, maybe with a bit more emphasis on running. A QB who can, first and foremost pass, with a high completion percentage, and hopefully run a bit, too. (Of course, wouldn't that be nice to have, all the time?)

Folks here are living in the past, citing their favorite offenses from their glory days, but people, it's 2019 (and it's only even that for a few more weeks).

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Big C - I am not just citing my favorite offense. If I did that it would be Snyder's last one.

I very much think that Cal needs to stop just trying to hire good coaches. They need to use analytics to determine what is the best offense to run at Cal based on the recruits we can get and the opponents we play. We need to establish an identity that Cal is the "X" school. Whatever X is. Have recruits who think they would excel in system X think of us first.

I have not run analytics, nor am I going to, so I may be completely wrong in my speculation regarding what system X should be. But my thinking is this:

2004 is wrongly thought of as a passing team because Aaron Rodgers was an awesome QB. It wasn't. We ran for 256 yards a game on 42 carries and passed for 235 on 28 attempts. While it was awesome having Rodgers run the offense, it would have been fine with a consistent QB who just delivered the ball to his play makers when he had to. 2005 was similar. We ran for 235 yards a game on 40 carries and passed for 193 on 27 attempts. In 2005 we put in running plays specifically for Ayoob that we never had Rodgers run. I'm not a tremendous Garbers fan, but I think if you put Garbers on that team we challenge for a conference championship.

To be sure there is no question that 2004 was an exceptionally talented team and so was 2005 except for QB. We couldn't expect to have that combination of talent every year or any year.

My thinking is this. The most academically successful players tend to be O-Line. With an offense that revolves around O-line play we maximize our reputation around a recruiting pool that is easiest for us to get. Given the passing bent of the conference, we could become the school running backs want to go to and to be honest solid running backs are not hard to find. Fullbacks and tight ends as well. Plus, we would be a change up for the rest of the conference who has to defend the pass most weeks. You then don't rely on massive QB and wide receiver talent - I think the two positions that are hardest for us to recruit (even with our offenses, Dykes pretty much went 0-fer at QB recruiting other than getting Webb to transfer) You just need serviceable and consistent.

I'm not saying you dust off the same playbook. I'm saying that is the style I would run.

I would also say that Boller, Robertson, Rodgers and Longshore picked up that offense very quickly. I don't think it is hard to learn. I think when Tedford moved to Frankenoffense when he overreacted to Ayoob hampering 2005's offense, yes he ended up with an offense that was more pass first and harder to run than his original offense.

Bottom line - Cal can't run what everyone else is running. We are not on a level playing field. We will never get the best recruits. Cal needs to think Moneyball - what are the aspects to a good offense that are undervalued in the market or that Cal specifically has an advantage (or less of a disadvantage) in?

I don't think "getting a good coach" is enough. Getting a good coach in a system that works at Cal is necessary. We need both.

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All this sounds very logically planned out. But let's say we do all of those analytics to plan out the very best offense for Cal. Then, we go to hire an Offensive Coordinator and we say, "And here is the offense you're going to coordinate! Look, we've already done a lot of your work for you! You're welcome." Who is going to want that job?

I think you have to hire a good OC and let him install his offense. If it's too weird an offense, like the Navy one, you don't go with that guy. Other than that, lots of different offenses can work here. I don't discount the value of differentiating yourself from the competition (like Stanfurd did... with a little help from The Glove), but that's just one possibility. I get that a lot of folks here don't like Air Raid-type offenses. I think they are largely misguided, but I get it.

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You don't hire an OC and then tell him to run your system. You hire an OC that runs your system

OaktownBear said:

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You don't hire an OC and then tell him to run your system. You hire an OC that runs your system

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The head coach hires an OC that runs the offensive system he wants to run.

Find the next Kingsbury / Harrell 2.0 kind of guy.

Air Raid isn't a scheme more so than it is a philosophy. & it's not all about just playing fast and running up the play count.

It's adaptive to personnel & is scalable reference would be Lincoln Riley's success @ Oklahoma with QBs of varying styles.

Tony was onto something with his RPO & Play Action scheme, as was Spavital with the screen game and SPO & PPO stuff.

If Spav was available, that's where I would actually look to go to.

Maybe just go off the deep end into June Jones / Hal Mumme territory... that would be interesting & different.

Rolovich @ Hawaii did an interesting job w/ merging the Run and Shoot with RPO into more of a ball control passing / QB run scheme. Maybe look to poach someone from his staff.

Kellen Moore is legit.

Wilcox knows that defensively, being able to run the ball & leverage a mobile qb are nightmares, but has faced enough top flight passing offenses to know that moving the ball in the air proficiently is how to punch above weight class.

At Boise, it was those Colt Brennan led Hawaii teams that gave him the most trouble.

If Pro-Style is the style JW chooses to go, then I'd like to get an assistant from the 49ers staff. I would love an Offense similar to the early JT years. Jedd Fisch would be nice as well and another aspect that I like with Fisch is that he improved UCLAs Offense by 6+ pts a game and implemented his Offense in a single offseason. Pro-Style Offenses can be complex compared to these spread and air raid offenses.
If JW chooses to go Multiple again, I'd like to see an offense similar to Bobby Petrino's Offenses. He might be of crap character, but his offenses were fun to watch.

goldenjax said:

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If Pro-Style is the style JW chooses to go, then I'd like to get an assistant from the 49ers staff.

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I get the feeling that until we name the new OC, comments like these are going to be the new "Alex Mack was a 2 star" of this board.

Anyhow, pick which guy you want from the staff or come to the conclusion that Kyle Shanahan is the essential component that makes that happen. Legwork is already done:
https://bearinsider.com/forums/2/topics/92909/replies/1695742

Pigskin Pete said:

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OaktownBear said:

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You don't hire an OC and then tell him to run your system. You hire an OC that runs your system

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The head coach hires an OC that runs the offensive system he wants to run.

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I agree. We have a head coach and he makes that decision. I'd like to see Cal give him more support in that, but it is his decision to make. And back to my point, he decides what he wants to run and makes a hire supporting that decision. He doesn't hire a guy and then tell him he has to run an offense he doesn't want to run

Pigskin Pete said:

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goldenjax said:

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If Pro-Style is the style JW chooses to go, then I'd like to get an assistant from the 49ers staff.

---

I get the feeling that until we name the new OC, comments like these are going to be the new "Alex Mack was a 2 star" of this board.

Anyhow, pick which guy you want from the staff or come to the conclusion that Kyle Shanahan is the essential component that makes that happen. Legwork is already done:
https://bearinsider.com/forums/2/topics/92909/replies/1695742

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I am trying to figure out why a pro assistant coach would want a coordinator job at the college level. It makes no sense to me. The next step for a pro assistant is to a pro coordinator job, given the variety of titles and pay grades in the pros, there are plenty of opportunities for advancement.

killa22 said:

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Find the next Kingsbury / Harrell 2.0 kind of guy.

Air Raid isn't a scheme more so than it is a philosophy. & it's not all about just playing fast and running up the play count.

It's adaptive to personnel & is scalable reference would be Lincoln Riley's success @ Oklahoma with QBs of varying styles.

Tony was onto something with his RPO & Play Action scheme, as was Spavital with the screen game and SPO & PPO stuff.

If Spav was available, that's where I would actually look to go to.

Maybe just go off the deep end into June Jones / Hal Mumme territory... that would be interesting & different.

Rolovich @ Hawaii did an interesting job w/ merging the Run and Shoot with RPO into more of a ball control passing / QB run scheme. Maybe look to poach someone from his staff.

Kellen Moore is legit.

Wilcox knows that defensively, being able to run the ball & leverage a mobile qb are nightmares, but has faced enough top flight passing offenses to know that moving the ball in the air proficiently is how to punch above weight class.

At Boise, it was those Colt Brennan led Hawaii teams that gave him the most trouble.

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I really trust your thoughts. Even if Spav was available, I doubt he'd want to come back to Cal where they didn't select him as HC after Sonny. But yah, I like Spav a lot.

When in doubt...

Drop back and PUNT.

71Bear said:

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Pigskin Pete said:

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goldenjax said:

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If Pro-Style is the style JW chooses to go, then I'd like to get an assistant from the 49ers staff.

---

I get the feeling that until we name the new OC, comments like these are going to be the new "Alex Mack was a 2 star" of this board.

Anyhow, pick which guy you want from the staff or come to the conclusion that Kyle Shanahan is the essential component that makes that happen. Legwork is already done:
https://bearinsider.com/forums/2/topics/92909/replies/1695742

---

I am trying to figure out why a pro assistant coach would want a coordinator job at the college level. It makes no sense to me. The next step for a pro assistant is to a pro coordinator job, given the variety of titles and pay grades in the pros, there are plenty of opportunities for advancement.

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It's not that uncommon for a pro position coach or even coordinator to move to a college coordinator job. I think the range of reasons for it are fairly mundane: coach wants experience at coordinator but can't get a pro coordinator job, coach is fired / not retained from pro job and either can't get another pro job either at his level or at all, coach wants to return to the college game out of preference for it, coach wants to live in a particular area, coach is tapped by a friend who is building a college staff, etc.

There are a number of current NFL coordinators whose job history went from pro assistant / coordinator > college coordinator > to pro coordinator (even some current NFL HCs) :

Eric Bieniemy (KC)
Todd Monken (CLE)
John DeFilippo (MIN)
Greg Roman (BAL)
Brian Daboll (BUF)
Brian Schottenheimer (SEA)
Paul Pasqualoni (DET)
Chuck Pagano (CHI)
Nathaniel Hackett (GB)
Dan Quinn (ATL HC)
Zak Taylor (CIN HC)
Matt LaFleur (GB HC)
Vic Fangio (DEN HC)
Bruce Arians (TB HC)

There have also been a number of Pac-10/12 coordinators in the last 25 years who prior to that job was an NFL coach (position, coordinator or HC):

Tom Holmoe
Kennedy Polamalu
Hue Jackson
Jim Leavitt
Mike Bloomgren
Derek Mason
Pep Hamilton
Mike Sanford
Jimmy Lake
Steve Sarkisian
Doug Nussmeier
Ed Donatell
Tim Lappano
Phil Snow
Marcus Arroyo
Nick Allioti
Gary Crowton
Jim Michalczik
Clancy Pendergast
Frank Cignetti
Mike Riley
John Garrett
Mark Banker
Danny Langsdorf
Ed Orgeron
John Morton
Rich Olson
Noel Mazzone

I think the line between the NFL and NCAA is quite permeable. People get caught up in who's a "pro coach" or "college coach" and forget that the vast majority of the knowledge and skills of coaching translate very easily between the two levels. Granted there are some aspects of each level which are particular (recruiting, dealing with college students, dealing with millionaires) but the key is being a highly competent football coach.

Yes, they might go from NFL position coach to college coordinator in order to earn their stripes as a coordinator. That said, our next OC should have demonstrated success as a college coordinator, IMO.

killa22 said:

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Find the next Kingsbury / Harrell 2.0 kind of guy.

Air Raid isn't a scheme more so than it is a philosophy. & it's not all about just playing fast and running up the play count.

It's adaptive to personnel & is scalable reference would be Lincoln Riley's success @ Oklahoma with QBs of varying styles.

Tony was onto something with his RPO & Play Action scheme, as was Spavital with the screen game and SPO & PPO stuff.

If Spav was available, that's where I would actually look to go to.

Maybe just go off the deep end into June Jones / Hal Mumme territory... that would be interesting & different.

Rolovich @ Hawaii did an interesting job w/ merging the Run and Shoot with RPO into more of a ball control passing / QB run scheme. Maybe look to poach someone from his staff.

Kellen Moore is legit.

Wilcox knows that defensively, being able to run the ball & leverage a mobile qb are nightmares, but has faced enough top flight passing offenses to know that moving the ball in the air proficiently is how to punch above weight class.

At Boise, it was those Colt Brennan led Hawaii teams that gave him the most trouble.

---

I'm not a praying man, but I'll make an exception and pray for NO AIR RAID.

Franklin, Spavital and Kingsbury are all about just playing fast and running up the playcount. It makes no sense at all to suggest otherwise. Those three coaches have spent 16 seasons* as either OC or HC of a P5 team. They averaged 79 plays per game. Not coincidentally, those teams' defenses were an average 99th in scoring defense.

Using Lincoln Riley's success as any kind of Air Raid model for us to follow does not work at all. Oklahoma has had three straight Top-10 recruiting seasons. Riley's three QBs were Mayfield, Murray and Hurts. The first two were #1 overall picks, Hurts will probably go in the 1st Rd. If you have that kind of talent, any offense you run will be spectacular. But even Oklahoma's talent couldn't save them from the Air Raid's crippling effect on its own defense: OU has averaged 73rd in scoring defense.**

Wilcox did get rung up by the two Colt Brennan Hawaii teams BSU faced, but the next two Hawaii teams scored a total of 16 points against BSU. Wilcox' Pac-12 defenses (UW, USC, Cal) have faced three Pac-12 Air Raid teams (WSU, Cal, USC) a total of 10 times. In every game except USC, Wilcox held the Air Raid below its team's PPG. The average PPG of those teams was 33.2; Wilcox allowed 23.5 PPG. Wilcox has no trouble handling the Air Raid, so I imagine it cannot have favorably impressed him.

NO Air Raid!!! It fails against well-coached defenses, cripples your own defense and inhibits your team's physical toughness. After what happened with Dykes, I will be truly dismayed if we go down that road once again. It leads to video game football and competitive mediocrity.

*Not counting Franklin's one season at Auburn in 2008 when Tommy Tuberville wouldn't let him run his offense

**Yes, points per drive might be a more accurate measurement but collecting that stat is much more difficult. Regardless, the difference will not save these scoring defenses from being statistically awful

Edit: Forgot the USC game. Definitely did get rung up there.

Cave Bear said:

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killa22 said:

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Find the next Kingsbury / Harrell 2.0 kind of guy.

Air Raid isn't a scheme more so than it is a philosophy. & it's not all about just playing fast and running up the play count.

It's adaptive to personnel & is scalable reference would be Lincoln Riley's success @ Oklahoma with QBs of varying styles.

Tony was onto something with his RPO & Play Action scheme, as was Spavital with the screen game and SPO & PPO stuff.

If Spav was available, that's where I would actually look to go to.

Maybe just go off the deep end into June Jones / Hal Mumme territory... that would be interesting & different.

Rolovich @ Hawaii did an interesting job w/ merging the Run and Shoot with RPO into more of a ball control passing / QB run scheme. Maybe look to poach someone from his staff.

Kellen Moore is legit.

Wilcox knows that defensively, being able to run the ball & leverage a mobile qb are nightmares, but has faced enough top flight passing offenses to know that moving the ball in the air proficiently is how to punch above weight class.

At Boise, it was those Colt Brennan led Hawaii teams that gave him the most trouble.

---

I'm not a praying man, but I'll make an exception and pray for NO AIR RAID.

Franklin, Spavital and Kingsbury are all about just playing fast and running up the playcount. It makes no sense at all to suggest otherwise. Those three coaches have spent 16 seasons* as either OC or HC of a P5 team. They averaged 79 plays per game. Not coincidentally, those teams' defenses were an average 99th in scoring defense.

Using Lincoln Riley's success as any kind of Air Raid model for us to follow does not work at all. Oklahoma has had three straight Top-10 recruiting seasons. Riley's three QBs were Mayfield, Murray and Hurts. The first two were #1 overall picks, Hurts will probably go in the 1st Rd. If you have that kind of talent, any offense you run will be spectacular. But even Oklahoma's talent couldn't save them from the Air Raid's crippling effect on its own defense: OU has averaged 73rd in scoring defense.**

Wilcox did get rung up by the two Colt Brennan Hawaii teams BSU faced, but he never got rung up by an Air Raid team again. The next two Hawaii teams scored a total of 16 points against BSU. Wilcox' Pac-12 defenses (UW, USC, Cal) have faced two Pac-12 Air Raid teams (WSU, Cal) a total of 9 times. In every single game, Wilcox held the Air Raid below its team's PPG. The average PPG of those WSU and Cal teams was 33.8; Wilcox allowed 19.4 PPG. Wilcox has no trouble handling the Air Raid, so I imagine it cannot have favorably impressed him.

NO Air Raid!!! It fails against well-coached defenses, cripples your own defense and inhibits your team's physical toughness. After what happened with Dykes, I will be truly dismayed if we go down that road once again. It leads to video game football and competitive mediocrity.

*Not counting Franklin's one season at Auburn in 2008 when Tommy Tuberville wouldn't let him run his offense

**Yes, points per drive might be a more accurate measurement but collecting that stat is much more difficult. Regardless, the difference will not save these scoring defenses from being statistically awful

---

What is easy to look up is yards per play (college-football-reference.com). In 2015 Cal was #6 in the nation in yards per play.

As Killa points out Air Raid does not have to be fast. You can burn clock in any offense.

Football and basketball are similar in alternating possessions. If your offense gets more yards per play (or points per possession) than your defense gives up, then you want lots of possessions for both sides to tend toward that mean and you play fast.

If you are outmatched and your offense gets fewer yards per play (or points per possession) than your defense gives up then you want to slow the game down (four corners in basketball before the time clock) and hope to get lucky and pull off an upset.

Dykes problem was that as good as his offense was 3 out of 4 years his defense was as bad or worse than his offense was good, so playing fast was at best a push.

A good, deep, defense, especially one that features "the tackers" would be awesome if paired with a good offense that plays fast. We would win in blowouts.

calumnus said:

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Cave Bear said:

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killa22 said:

---

Find the next Kingsbury / Harrell 2.0 kind of guy.

Air Raid isn't a scheme more so than it is a philosophy. & it's not all about just playing fast and running up the play count.

It's adaptive to personnel & is scalable reference would be Lincoln Riley's success @ Oklahoma with QBs of varying styles.

Tony was onto something with his RPO & Play Action scheme, as was Spavital with the screen game and SPO & PPO stuff.

If Spav was available, that's where I would actually look to go to.

Maybe just go off the deep end into June Jones / Hal Mumme territory... that would be interesting & different.

Rolovich @ Hawaii did an interesting job w/ merging the Run and Shoot with RPO into more of a ball control passing / QB run scheme. Maybe look to poach someone from his staff.

Kellen Moore is legit.

Wilcox knows that defensively, being able to run the ball & leverage a mobile qb are nightmares, but has faced enough top flight passing offenses to know that moving the ball in the air proficiently is how to punch above weight class.

At Boise, it was those Colt Brennan led Hawaii teams that gave him the most trouble.

---

I'm not a praying man, but I'll make an exception and pray for NO AIR RAID.

Franklin, Spavital and Kingsbury are all about just playing fast and running up the playcount. It makes no sense at all to suggest otherwise. Those three coaches have spent 16 seasons* as either OC or HC of a P5 team. They averaged 79 plays per game. Not coincidentally, those teams' defenses were an average 99th in scoring defense.

Using Lincoln Riley's success as any kind of Air Raid model for us to follow does not work at all. Oklahoma has had three straight Top-10 recruiting seasons. Riley's three QBs were Mayfield, Murray and Hurts. The first two were #1 overall picks, Hurts will probably go in the 1st Rd. If you have that kind of talent, any offense you run will be spectacular. But even Oklahoma's talent couldn't save them from the Air Raid's crippling effect on its own defense: OU has averaged 73rd in scoring defense.**

Wilcox did get rung up by the two Colt Brennan Hawaii teams BSU faced, but he never got rung up by an Air Raid team again. The next two Hawaii teams scored a total of 16 points against BSU. Wilcox' Pac-12 defenses (UW, USC, Cal) have faced two Pac-12 Air Raid teams (WSU, Cal) a total of 9 times. In every single game, Wilcox held the Air Raid below its team's PPG. The average PPG of those WSU and Cal teams was 33.8; Wilcox allowed 19.4 PPG. Wilcox has no trouble handling the Air Raid, so I imagine it cannot have favorably impressed him.

NO Air Raid!!! It fails against well-coached defenses, cripples your own defense and inhibits your team's physical toughness. After what happened with Dykes, I will be truly dismayed if we go down that road once again. It leads to video game football and competitive mediocrity.

*Not counting Franklin's one season at Auburn in 2008 when Tommy Tuberville wouldn't let him run his offense

**Yes, points per drive might be a more accurate measurement but collecting that stat is much more difficult. Regardless, the difference will not save these scoring defenses from being statistically awful

---

What is easy to look up is yards per play (college-football-reference.com). In 2015 Cal was #6 in the nation in yards per play.

As Killa points out Air Raid does not have to be fast. You can burn clock in any offense.

Football and basketball are similar in alternating possessions. If your offense gets more yards per play (or points per possession) than your defense gives up, then you want lots of possessions for both sides to tend toward that mean and you play fast.

If you are outmatched and your offense gets fewer yards per play (or points per possession) than your defense gives up then you want to slow the game down (four corners in basketball before the time clock) and hope to get lucky and pull off an upset.

Dykes problem was that as good as his offense was 3 out of 4 years his defense was as bad or worse than his offense was good, so playing fast was a push.

A good, deep, defense, especially one that features "the tackets" would be awesome if paired with a good offense that plays fast. We would win in blowouts.

---

The Air Raid does not have to be fast, but Kingsbury, Franklin and Spavital exclusively run fast offenses at P5 schools. Their offensive effectiveness is undoubtedly tied to their speed.

All of the Dykes teams threw significantly more frequently than they ran (as is typical for Air Raid teams), which is going to boost the YPP but may not make the offense actually more effective than another team that scores the same Yards Per Drive but with a lower Yards Per Play due to more running. Even so, 2015 was clearly exceptional. The three other Dykes seasons YPP ranks were #98, #33 and #56. 2015 was exceptional in another way: Dykes had the #1 overall pick at QB and an unusually stocked WR group, neither of which he recruited and neither of which we actually presently have (or can count on having any time soon).

Again, there is a reason these Air Raid teams are very strongly linked to poor defense and it's not entirely because of the offense's pace. Team defense tends to mirror team offense characteristically. It's hard to prevent since a team's defense spends vastly more time playing against its own offense than other teams' offenses. Air Raid defenses tend overwhelmingly to be small, quick and soft just like Air Raid offenses, but being small and soft doesn't hinder an offense from racking up points and yards (at least against less capable defenses) while being small and soft on defense is a recipe for a terrible unit.

Finally, and this is very important, Dykes' offenses weren't nearly as good as they were statistically prolific. We would run bad or vastly out-talented defenses off the field but so frequently sputter against strong defenses. 2015 is a great example. Against the defenses that were either statistically bad (Texas, WSU, UO, OSU, ASU) or vastly out-talented (Grambling, SDSU and Air Force) we averaged a ridiculous 46.5 PPG (15.4 PPG above the average allowed by those defenses) and went 7-1 but when we actually needed our offense to outplay a good defense (UW, Utah, UCLA, USC, Stanford) we were held to 24.2 PPG (only 1.1 above the average allowed) and a 1-4 record. This feature is typical of Air Raid teams. It is why (not counting 2013) Dykes went 3-11 vs the teams in that "good defense" group and 15-8 in all other games.

Hire an Air Raid coach for OC and I strongly expect at least one of these two things to happen: either the offense will greatly disappoint those looking for a return to the Dykes video game stats or the defense will decline severely in quality.

Cave Bear said:

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calumnus said:

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Cave Bear said:

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killa22 said:

---

Find the next Kingsbury / Harrell 2.0 kind of guy.

Air Raid isn't a scheme more so than it is a philosophy. & it's not all about just playing fast and running up the play count.

It's adaptive to personnel & is scalable reference would be Lincoln Riley's success @ Oklahoma with QBs of varying styles.

Tony was onto something with his RPO & Play Action scheme, as was Spavital with the screen game and SPO & PPO stuff.

If Spav was available, that's where I would actually look to go to.

Maybe just go off the deep end into June Jones / Hal Mumme territory... that would be interesting & different.

Rolovich @ Hawaii did an interesting job w/ merging the Run and Shoot with RPO into more of a ball control passing / QB run scheme. Maybe look to poach someone from his staff.

Kellen Moore is legit.

Wilcox knows that defensively, being able to run the ball & leverage a mobile qb are nightmares, but has faced enough top flight passing offenses to know that moving the ball in the air proficiently is how to punch above weight class.

At Boise, it was those Colt Brennan led Hawaii teams that gave him the most trouble.

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I'm not a praying man, but I'll make an exception and pray for NO AIR RAID.

Franklin, Spavital and Kingsbury are all about just playing fast and running up the playcount. It makes no sense at all to suggest otherwise. Those three coaches have spent 16 seasons* as either OC or HC of a P5 team. They averaged 79 plays per game. Not coincidentally, those teams' defenses were an average 99th in scoring defense.

Using Lincoln Riley's success as any kind of Air Raid model for us to follow does not work at all. Oklahoma has had three straight Top-10 recruiting seasons. Riley's three QBs were Mayfield, Murray and Hurts. The first two were #1 overall picks, Hurts will probably go in the 1st Rd. If you have that kind of talent, any offense you run will be spectacular. But even Oklahoma's talent couldn't save them from the Air Raid's crippling effect on its own defense: OU has averaged 73rd in scoring defense.**

Wilcox did get rung up by the two Colt Brennan Hawaii teams BSU faced, but he never got rung up by an Air Raid team again. The next two Hawaii teams scored a total of 16 points against BSU. Wilcox' Pac-12 defenses (UW, USC, Cal) have faced two Pac-12 Air Raid teams (WSU, Cal) a total of 9 times. In every single game, Wilcox held the Air Raid below its team's PPG. The average PPG of those WSU and Cal teams was 33.8; Wilcox allowed 19.4 PPG. Wilcox has no trouble handling the Air Raid, so I imagine it cannot have favorably impressed him.

NO Air Raid!!! It fails against well-coached defenses, cripples your own defense and inhibits your team's physical toughness. After what happened with Dykes, I will be truly dismayed if we go down that road once again. It leads to video game football and competitive mediocrity.

*Not counting Franklin's one season at Auburn in 2008 when Tommy Tuberville wouldn't let him run his offense

**Yes, points per drive might be a more accurate measurement but collecting that stat is much more difficult. Regardless, the difference will not save these scoring defenses from being statistically awful

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What is easy to look up is yards per play (college-football-reference.com). In 2015 Cal was #6 in the nation in yards per play.

As Killa points out Air Raid does not have to be fast. You can burn clock in any offense.

Football and basketball are similar in alternating possessions. If your offense gets more yards per play (or points per possession) than your defense gives up, then you want lots of possessions for both sides to tend toward that mean and you play fast.

If you are outmatched and your offense gets fewer yards per play (or points per possession) than your defense gives up then you want to slow the game down (four corners in basketball before the time clock) and hope to get lucky and pull off an upset.

Dykes problem was that as good as his offense was 3 out of 4 years his defense was as bad or worse than his offense was good, so playing fast was a push.

A good, deep, defense, especially one that features "the tackets" would be awesome if paired with a good offense that plays fast. We would win in blowouts.

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The Air Raid does not have to be fast, but Kingsbury, Franklin and Spavital exclusively run fast offenses at P5 schools. Their offensive effectiveness is undoubtedly tied to their speed.

All of the Dykes teams threw significantly more frequently than they ran (as is typical for Air Raid teams), which is going to boost the YPP but may not make the offense actually more effective than another team that scores the same Yards Per Drive but with a lower Yards Per Play due to more running. Even so, 2015 was clearly exceptional. The three other Dykes seasons YPP ranks were #98, #33 and #56. 2015 was exceptional in another way: Dykes had the #1 overall pick at QB and an unusually stocked WR group, neither of which he recruited and neither of which we actually presently have (or can count on having any time soon).

Again, there is a reason these Air Raid teams are very strongly linked to poor defense and it's not entirely because of the offense's pace. Team defense tends to mirror team offense characteristically. It's hard to prevent since a team's defense spends vastly more time playing against its own offense than other teams' offenses. Air Raid defenses tend overwhelmingly to be small, quick and soft just like Air Raid offenses, but being small and soft doesn't hinder an offense from racking up points and yards (at least against less capable defenses) while being small and soft on defense is a recipe for a terrible unit.

Finally, and this is very important, Dykes' offenses weren't nearly as good as they were statistically prolific. We would run bad or vastly out-talented defenses off the field but so frequently sputter against strong defenses. 2015 is a great example. Against the defenses that were either statistically bad (Texas, WSU, UO, OSU, ASU) or vastly out-talented (Grambling, SDSU and Air Force) we averaged a ridiculous 46.5 PPG (15.4 PPG above the average allowed by those defenses) and went 7-1 but when we actually needed our offense to outplay a good defense (UW, Utah, UCLA, USC, Stanford) we were held to 24.2 PPG (only 1.1 above the average allowed) and a 1-4 record. This feature is typical of Air Raid teams. It is why (not counting 2013) Dykes went 3-11 vs the teams in that "good defense" group and 15-8 in all other games.

Hire an Air Raid coach for OC and I strongly expect at least one of these two things to happen: either the offense will greatly disappoint those looking for a return to the Dykes video game stats or the defense will decline severely in quality.

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We don't have Air Raid personnel. We could have transitioned from Dykes easier if we ran the same offense he did. We have spent 3 years recruiting away from the Air Raid. We ran an offense year 1 that really needed tight ends when we didn't have any. Our QB is just getting his feet under him in a non-Air Raid offense.

I'd be shocked if we went Air Raid at this point.