Cal vs Furd Game Thread

12,023 Views | 137 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by bearister
NathanAllen
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sluggo said:

93Bear said:

Our point guards tonight were 2-11 for 4 points with 3 assists and 7 turnovers. Man do we miss Paris Austin. I hope Fox has a PG lined up for next year. His job may depend on it.
He has Joel Brown, who has improved a lot, and I think has more growth in him. I think he was hoping for Hyder, but Hyder is better off the ball. None of the recruits are points. A grad transfer would be nice. Foreman is the size of a point but better off the ball. Austin was key last year, and I think people who thought the team would improve (I did not) failed to realize his impact.
Technically Joel Brown is not Fox's recruit. He had already committed and signed with Cal when Wyking Jones was fired. I think David Grace was Brown's main recruiter. Obviously, Fox gets credit for keeping Brown on board and any development of Brown once in Berkeley. But both Brown and D.J. Thorpe did not come to Cal initially for Fox.

Of that class, Fox recruited and brought in Kuany, Klonaras, Thiemann, and Kareem South. The class ranked No. 66 in the country and No. 8 in the Pac-12, according to 247 Sports. Last year's class of Bowser and Celestine ranked No. 87 nationally and No. 10 in the league. As of now, the 2021 class is ranked No. 60 in the nation and No. 8 in the conference.

I don't like putting a ton of stock in recruiting rankings, but I do think they're generally worth at least a little bit. And going off those rankings, Mark Fox has so far only landed one top-150 recruit (according to 247 Sports) and that was Monty Bowser. However, 2021's class of Roberson and Anyanwu are No. 157 and No. 161, respectively, and could end up in the top-150.
BearlyCareAnymore
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sluggo said:

stu said:

SFBear92 said:

The reason the team has no talent is because the coach can't recruit. Once again, another excuse.
IMHO through 2 years he has driven off more talent than he has brought in. The class coming in this fall looks promising but I'll have to see them play and develop. Also I don't see a center.

I think Fox is a competent coach, far better than Jones, but not close to Montgomery's level. I wouldn't expect a competent coach with a less than stellar roster to get us regular NCAA Tournament appearances.

If you think this new class will materially change the team, go see their highlights on youtube. I like Alajiki, but the other two will need to grow into roles, although they are athletic enough. I realize there is more projection than most years with the shutdown.
Forgive me, but I see a lot of people pointing to this class as some sort of turnaround. I know 3 things about recruiting. 1. I have no ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 2. No one on this board has any ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 3. The best way to get a sense of the quality of a class is ratings by recruiting services and what other schools have offered them.

Based on that, smart money says we have one recruit who likely develops into a player who could start on a power conference team that finishes in the top half of conference and two players who are likely role players on such a team but will likely develop into starters for us in a few years. I'm sorry, but statistically speaking getting an offer from a last place Power conference team and a bunch of mid majors, or 2 last place Power conference teams and a bunch of mid majors does not lead to turning a program competitive. Of course we need to see what they will do, but some people here are banking on it leading to big improvement and there is nothing that indicates that is the case. There is nothing to indicate that Fox is a coach like Monty that gets more out of his players than their talent would suggest. Fox's recruiting classes have ranked 10th and 8th in conference. That doesn't add up to improvement
stu
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OaktownBear said:

Forgive me, but I see a lot of people pointing to this class as some sort of turnaround.
...
Based on that, smart money says we have one recruit who likely develops into a player who could start on a power conference team that finishes in the top half of conference and two players who are likely role players on such a team but will likely develop into starters for us in a few years.
When I said "promising" I meant better than Fox's first two classes. What you say makes sense to me. If that's how this and subsequent classes turn out then I expect we'll be finishing out of the cellar but below the middle of the conference. I wouldn't call that success.
socaltownie
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Look - Fox can coach. That is pretty clear last year and, while it is hard to judge in COVID land - there are flashes of it this year.

BUT COACHING IS NOT ENOUGH TO WIN IN THE PAC 12

You have

A marketing extension of the world's largest shoe company that is dressed up as a university athletic program

A Storied program that gets all the attention they could ask for from the 2nd largest city in the country's media market

A university that doesn't give jack **** about a coach who PAID for players as long as he wins

A program (Utah) with clearly a great coach who is better than Fox (who wouldn't right now trade a nobel winner and Fox for Larry K?)


It is simply the case that Cal needs more talent. And arguably the same could be said in Football - a program ALSO being run by clearly a good coach but who has to compete on an unlevel playing field.

And lets be blunt - in my lifetime Cal has NEVER hired a coach would would be considered a great recruiter who had charisma and who was a natural sales person. MAYBE Tedford was good. MAYBE.

Big C
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OaktownBear said:

sluggo said:

stu said:

SFBear92 said:

The reason the team has no talent is because the coach can't recruit. Once again, another excuse.
IMHO through 2 years he has driven off more talent than he has brought in. The class coming in this fall looks promising but I'll have to see them play and develop. Also I don't see a center.

I think Fox is a competent coach, far better than Jones, but not close to Montgomery's level. I wouldn't expect a competent coach with a less than stellar roster to get us regular NCAA Tournament appearances.

If you think this new class will materially change the team, go see their highlights on youtube. I like Alajiki, but the other two will need to grow into roles, although they are athletic enough. I realize there is more projection than most years with the shutdown.
Forgive me, but I see a lot of people pointing to this class as some sort of turnaround. I know 3 things about recruiting. 1. I have no ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 2. No one on this board has any ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 3. The best way to get a sense of the quality of a class is ratings by recruiting services and what other schools have offered them.

Based on that, smart money says we have one recruit who likely develops into a player who could start on a power conference team that finishes in the top half of conference and two players who are likely role players on such a team but will likely develop into starters for us in a few years. I'm sorry, but statistically speaking getting an offer from a last place Power conference team and a bunch of mid majors, or 2 last place Power conference teams and a bunch of mid majors does not lead to turning a program competitive. Of course we need to see what they will do, but some people here are banking on it leading to big improvement and there is nothing that indicates that is the case. There is nothing to indicate that Fox is a coach like Monty that gets more out of his players than their talent would suggest. Fox's recruiting classes have ranked 10th and 8th in conference. That doesn't add up to improvement

I don't disagree with any of your points. The question is, what do we do about it? It seems like our best option, all things considered, is to wait 11-12 months and then begin to reevaluate Fox' status.

What about in the meantime? "We" can educate our Athletic Director on how to hire a basketball coach and "we" can move things forward on getting a dedicated practice facility. (notice "we" in quotation marks, as there is little that you or I can realistically do to advance either of those)

Perhaps the larger problem is that nobody really cares. Heck, I find myself caring less than I have just about any time in the last few decades. The team is losing, they are boring and I can't even go to Haas and at least hang out with my old buddies.

So I'm getting through this period on irrational hope: Maybe we'll be better next season! Go Bears!

Don't underestimate a little hope: It's largely what has kept Cal Football and Basketball fans going since as long as I can remember. Did I say "Go Bears" yet? Oh yes, I already did. It's the cry of the hopeful Cal Fan!
oskidunker
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I may record the game Sunday, if it is not on the pac12, and maybe watch later.
Go Bears!
stu
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Quote:

And lets be blunt - in my lifetime Cal has NEVER hired a coach would would be considered a great recruiter who had charisma and who was a natural sales person. MAYBE Tedford was good. MAYBE.
Todd Bozeman?
BearlyCareAnymore
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Big C said:

OaktownBear said:

sluggo said:

stu said:

SFBear92 said:

The reason the team has no talent is because the coach can't recruit. Once again, another excuse.
IMHO through 2 years he has driven off more talent than he has brought in. The class coming in this fall looks promising but I'll have to see them play and develop. Also I don't see a center.

I think Fox is a competent coach, far better than Jones, but not close to Montgomery's level. I wouldn't expect a competent coach with a less than stellar roster to get us regular NCAA Tournament appearances.

If you think this new class will materially change the team, go see their highlights on youtube. I like Alajiki, but the other two will need to grow into roles, although they are athletic enough. I realize there is more projection than most years with the shutdown.
Forgive me, but I see a lot of people pointing to this class as some sort of turnaround. I know 3 things about recruiting. 1. I have no ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 2. No one on this board has any ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 3. The best way to get a sense of the quality of a class is ratings by recruiting services and what other schools have offered them.

Based on that, smart money says we have one recruit who likely develops into a player who could start on a power conference team that finishes in the top half of conference and two players who are likely role players on such a team but will likely develop into starters for us in a few years. I'm sorry, but statistically speaking getting an offer from a last place Power conference team and a bunch of mid majors, or 2 last place Power conference teams and a bunch of mid majors does not lead to turning a program competitive. Of course we need to see what they will do, but some people here are banking on it leading to big improvement and there is nothing that indicates that is the case. There is nothing to indicate that Fox is a coach like Monty that gets more out of his players than their talent would suggest. Fox's recruiting classes have ranked 10th and 8th in conference. That doesn't add up to improvement

I don't disagree with any of your points. The question is, what do we do about it? It seems like our best option, all things considered, is to wait 11-12 months and then begin to reevaluate Fox' status.

What about in the meantime? "We" can educate our Athletic Director on how to hire a basketball coach and "we" can move things forward on getting a dedicated practice facility. (notice "we" in quotation marks, as there is little that you or I can realistically do to advance either of those)

Perhaps the larger problem is that nobody really cares. Heck, I find myself caring less than I have just about any time in the last few decades. The team is losing, they are boring and I can't even go to Haas and at least hang out with my old buddies.

So I'm getting through this period on irrational hope: Maybe we'll be better next season! Go Bears!

Don't underestimate a little hope: It's largely what has kept Cal Football and Basketball fans going since as long as I can remember. Did I say "Go Bears" yet? Oh yes, I already did. It's the cry of the hopeful Cal Fan!


Personally, the Wyking Jones era made more sense and was a lot more honest. We stop pretending Cal wants to have a good basketball program. We get the cheapest coach we can find. We don't pretend to our fans we are going to try. We roll a team out there because we have to as a conference member. We collect our conference share of the earnings and we live off that and don't expect our fans to fund it or show up. Not saying I like it, but it's honest and makes financial sense. Frankly, I wouldn't bother complaining.

Instead of rolling with that, we decided to plunk down more than an additional $6m over 5 years and hope to con Cal fans into believing they care. Cal will not remotely put a dent in that in extra revenue. So since they decided to spend that money I'm going to complain
calumnus
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stu said:

Quote:

And lets be blunt - in my lifetime Cal has NEVER hired a coach would would be considered a great recruiter who had charisma and who was a natural sales person. MAYBE Tedford was good. MAYBE.
Todd Bozeman?

Joe Kapp
Todd Bozeman
Steve Mariucci
Cuonzo Martin
NathanAllen
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socaltownie said:

Look - Fox can coach. That is pretty clear last year and, while it is hard to judge in COVID land - there are flashes of it this year.

BUT COACHING IS NOT ENOUGH TO WIN IN THE PAC 12

You have

A marketing extension of the world's largest shoe company that is dressed up as a university athletic program

A Storied program that gets all the attention they could ask for from the 2nd largest city in the country's media market

A university that doesn't give jack **** about a coach who PAID for players as long as he wins

A program (Utah) with clearly a great coach who is better than Fox (who wouldn't right now trade a nobel winner and Fox for Larry K?)


It is simply the case that Cal needs more talent. And arguably the same could be said in Football - a program ALSO being run by clearly a good coach but who has to compete on an unlevel playing field.

And lets be blunt - in my lifetime Cal has NEVER hired a coach would would be considered a great recruiter who had charisma and who was a natural sales person. MAYBE Tedford was good. MAYBE.


I get your points. But let's not pretend the Pac-12 is a college hoops juggernaut or that these things don't happen in other P5 conferences.

I also get there's a lot of frustration, overreactions, and message board hot-takes after a turd of a game against a rival during a five-game losing streak and a 2-11 record in a pretty bad P12.

But let's not forget the context. First, just how bad the team was when Fox took over. At its worst during Jones's last season, Cal was No. 289 in Kenpom. It finished the season at No. 240 thanks to its three-game win streak to close the season and only losing to Colorado by five in the P12 conference tournament. Still, the teams ranked next to Cal were Sacred Heart and Army. The next-lowest ranked Power Conference team was Wazzu at No. 207. The next lowest team not from the P12 was Wake Forest at No. 174. Like Cal, Wazzu fired its coach after that season. Somehow Danny Manning lasted one more year at Wake Forest.

So, the program is by far the worst Power Conference program for two consecutive years. Then you have the fact that Cal does not have the budget, nor is it willing to spend the money on a practice facility or coaching staff. Mark Fox makes about $1.6 million and will top-out at the end of his five-year contract at $1.8 million. Not only is that the lowest contract in the country and the second-lowest in the conference (in front of, you guessed it, Wazzu), but it's also in one of the most expensive places to live in the world.

And then you have recruiting. Not only is Cal disadvantaged from academic standards and a lack of practice facility, but now it's also fighting against its own past. Kids being recruited now might remember Ivan Rabb or Jabari Bird or Jaylen Brown playing for Cal. But they probably don't remember Cal as being very good.

I don't say all of this to be super negative, even though I understand it might come off that way, or to defend Mark Fox. It's mainly a reminder that Cal's program was horrible. It'd take any team and coach a while to dig out of it.

Cal is at an interesting point. Because the team is likely to be much improved next year as long as everyone stays healthy and sticks around. That will be year three on Fox's five-year contract. That's when coaches generally start to look for an extension. There's no point in talking about a new coach until then.
oskidunker
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Do we have any tall, really good players coming in?
Go Bears!
sluggo
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oskidunker said:

Do we have any tall, really good players coming in?
No
Big C
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sluggo said:

oskidunker said:

Do we have any tall, really good players coming in?
No

LOL at the comprehensive answer that only required two letters.

But "tall" can be relative! How about tall compared to me? (I'm 5-11 in basketball shoes.)
SFCityBear
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socaltownie said:


And lets be blunt - in my lifetime Cal has NEVER hired a coach would would be considered a great recruiter who had charisma and who was a natural sales person. MAYBE Tedford was good. MAYBE.


OK. I'll be blunt. You are younger than I am. In my lifetime, judging solely by the number of great players they recruited, there have been three coaches at Cal who were really good or maybe great recruiters: Pappy Waldorf in football and Jim Padgett and Todd Bozeman in basketball. Maybe Tedford, maybe Snyder for a couple of years. Waldorf was the most successful, taking Cal to three straight Rose Bowls, but he landed Cal on NCAA probation, with under the table recruiting practices. Tedford and Snyder had brief success, as did Bozeman, until he landed Cal on NCAA probation with under the table recruiting practices. Padgett was never found guilty of any recruiting violations, recruited the best basketball players as a group ever seen in Harmon or Haas, and his teams were all a failure. Of course, UCLA with Wooden and Kareem stood in his way, but Padgett's Cal teams couldn't even finish 2nd in the conference under Padgett. Cuonzo was not a great recruiter. He had only one good class, where he got two highly ranked players, neither one the kind you can build a program around. He had no great success on the court, in conference, or in post season, and then he dumped Cal for Mizzou and bigger bucks.

It's a small sample, but it is not a very good advertisement for hiring a coach who is a great recruiter to lead you to success, is it? It also indicates that Cal would take a risk hiring a great recruiter, because there is a good chance that great recruiter gets Cal put on probation, and we don't have an administration or big donors who are willing to back him and overlook his behavior, like coach Miller has at Arizona. When Pappy got caught, and eventually forced to retire, we got Pete Elliot, a terrible coach, who lucked out in getting Cal to the Rose Bowl when the conference had been depleted of good athletes due to several recruiting scandals and several teams on probation. He then went to Illinois, where he was forced to resign because of a slush fund scandal. Or take the case of Todd Bozeman, who put Cal on probation, and the University hired Ben Braun, to give Cal a squeaky clean program that would recruit well, but not outstanding recruiting, and Cal would have winning seasons, but never achieving much. His best recruiting class, with Leon Powe, et al, contributed to teams which were no better than his teams which had lower ranked recruits.

The solution is to find a coach who can recruit good players and coach them to championships, and that clearly is still not the university's goal. If you want that, you may want to change loyalties, or try and change the administration's mind. If I were looking for the next coach, I would not look for a great recruiter. There is way too much risk in that. The NCAA will always be looking into his recruiting practices. I would look at success. I am not interested in a coach who can wow fans by bringing in top recruits. I want a coach who can win a conference or at least get to the Final Game in the NCAA. He would have to have both of those things on his resume for me to put him at the top of my list. When Montgomery was hired (how did Sandy get away with hiring a guy who could coach real basketball?), I said at the time, all he has proven is that he can get a team to the Final Four, and it took him several years to do that, and that is his proven ceiling. He can win you a conference (which he did at Cal).

When Cal hired Newell, he had already won a national championship. Then he left for Michigan State, where he had four very mediocre years, and many Cal fans and administrators were against hiring Newell. They felt he was burned out, done, that he couldn't do it anymore, and also that it was harder to recruit at Cal than it had been at USF, etc. Well, Cal hired him, and the rest is Cal history, the best in Cal history. So if it was me, I'd be looking for a coach who has had proven success. No more assistant coaches, no more retreads like Fox, no more small school coaches like Braun. I would look at the NCAA and find coaches who have taken teams other than the top 5 or 6 schools, to the championship game, and maybe to a Final Four. Texas Tech, Loyola-Chicago, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Virginia. If the price range is too high, then I would look for coaches who have a record of consistently knocking off teams ranked higher than them, winning games they are not supposed to win. I would give less importance to bringing in high ranked recruits, because unless you have a coach who can get them to play together well enough to be a winner, you have nothing, and are wasting your time. Padgett, Braun, and Bozeman all proved that, didn't they? And if your problem is that Cal won't spend the money for a proven head coach, then come up with some creative ideas to raise the money, start organizing support and meeting with Cal administration to convince them they can do this, and if you aren't willing to do this, then we need to stop whining.

SFCityBear
SFCityBear
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I should have mentioned Mike White who was a very good recruiter at Cal, and he had success at Cal, as conference football co-champion in 1975. He was not found guilty of any recruiting violations at Cal. He left Cal for Illinois where he again had success, but was eventually forced to resign due to recruiting violations.
SFCityBear
BearlyCareAnymore
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SFCityBear said:

I should have mentioned Mike White who was a very good recruiter at Cal, and he had success at Cal, as conference football co-champion in 1975. He was not found guilty of any recruiting violations at Cal. He left Cal for Illinois where he again had success, but was eventually forced to resign due to recruiting violations.
The fact that you said that means you know what's what. He was canned as a winning coach because Cal knew full well what he was doing and alums held their breath for the statute of limitations to run on that regime.
sluggo
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Big C said:

sluggo said:

oskidunker said:

Do we have any tall, really good players coming in?
No

LOL at the comprehensive answer that only required two letters.

But "tall" can be relative! How about tall compared to me? (I'm 5-11 in basketball shoes.)

Then "yes." I like Alajiki. Listed at 6'7''. Does not look that tall in the highlights, but much taller than you.

SFCityBear
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SFBear92 said:

OaktownBear said:

SFCityBear said:

DavisBear said:

Turnover fest, Bears can't make a shot. Time to pull the plug on the Fox era! Program is going nowhere with Fox in charge. Let's just admit it was a bad hire and move on
Fox has had just ONE full season to recruit. He has had all the players healthy and ready to play for only THREE games by my count. Fox can't dribble the ball, handle the ball or shoot the ball for his players. He can't play defense for them, nor can he grab any rebounds for them. So other than the old cliche that "The buck stops with the the man in charge", do you have a reasonable or rational reason for dumping the coach in less than TWO seasons?
Sigh
It doesn't matter the coach or sport, some fans will never stop making excuses for coaches.
Is that the best argument you've got? To attack the messenger?

How about answering my question, if you can?
SFCityBear
sluggo
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OaktownBear said:

sluggo said:

stu said:

SFBear92 said:

The reason the team has no talent is because the coach can't recruit. Once again, another excuse.
IMHO through 2 years he has driven off more talent than he has brought in. The class coming in this fall looks promising but I'll have to see them play and develop. Also I don't see a center.

I think Fox is a competent coach, far better than Jones, but not close to Montgomery's level. I wouldn't expect a competent coach with a less than stellar roster to get us regular NCAA Tournament appearances.

If you think this new class will materially change the team, go see their highlights on youtube. I like Alajiki, but the other two will need to grow into roles, although they are athletic enough. I realize there is more projection than most years with the shutdown.
Forgive me, but I see a lot of people pointing to this class as some sort of turnaround. I know 3 things about recruiting. 1. I have no ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 2. No one on this board has any ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 3. The best way to get a sense of the quality of a class is ratings by recruiting services and what other schools have offered them.

Based on that, smart money says we have one recruit who likely develops into a player who could start on a power conference team that finishes in the top half of conference and two players who are likely role players on such a team but will likely develop into starters for us in a few years. I'm sorry, but statistically speaking getting an offer from a last place Power conference team and a bunch of mid majors, or 2 last place Power conference teams and a bunch of mid majors does not lead to turning a program competitive. Of course we need to see what they will do, but some people here are banking on it leading to big improvement and there is nothing that indicates that is the case. There is nothing to indicate that Fox is a coach like Monty that gets more out of his players than their talent would suggest. Fox's recruiting classes have ranked 10th and 8th in conference. That doesn't add up to improvement
I disagree. Highlight tapes are instructive, game tapes even better. I think I can tell, not every time, but better than just using star rankings or offers. You can say I am fooling myself. Maybe I am.

There are some recruits that are so good that they are obvious from video, like Jaylen Brown and Jabari Bird. There are some who clearly should not have been recruited, like Deschon Winston and Bak Bak. Guys in the middle are more difficult, obviously. But basketball skills and athleticism are there to be seen if you watch. How players will develop depends a lot on them, and no one can know, but it is more likely if they have less of a way to go.

I was very clear that I thought Celestine was under ranked and was the star of his small class. I am saying the same thing about Alajiki. I don't think this is a program changing class by any means. I am on record. I don't expect anyone to care what I say.
sluggo
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NathanAllen said:

socaltownie said:

Look - Fox can coach. That is pretty clear last year and, while it is hard to judge in COVID land - there are flashes of it this year.

BUT COACHING IS NOT ENOUGH TO WIN IN THE PAC 12

You have

A marketing extension of the world's largest shoe company that is dressed up as a university athletic program

A Storied program that gets all the attention they could ask for from the 2nd largest city in the country's media market

A university that doesn't give jack **** about a coach who PAID for players as long as he wins

A program (Utah) with clearly a great coach who is better than Fox (who wouldn't right now trade a nobel winner and Fox for Larry K?)


It is simply the case that Cal needs more talent. And arguably the same could be said in Football - a program ALSO being run by clearly a good coach but who has to compete on an unlevel playing field.

And lets be blunt - in my lifetime Cal has NEVER hired a coach would would be considered a great recruiter who had charisma and who was a natural sales person. MAYBE Tedford was good. MAYBE.


I get your points. But let's not pretend the Pac-12 is a college hoops juggernaut or that these things don't happen in other P5 conferences.

I also get there's a lot of frustration, overreactions, and message board hot-takes after a turd of a game against a rival during a five-game losing streak and a 2-11 record in a pretty bad P12.

But let's not forget the context. First, just how bad the team was when Fox took over. At its worst during Jones's last season, Cal was No. 289 in Kenpom. It finished the season at No. 240 thanks to its three-game win streak to close the season and only losing to Colorado by five in the P12 conference tournament. Still, the teams ranked next to Cal were Sacred Heart and Army. The next-lowest ranked Power Conference team was Wazzu at No. 207. The next lowest team not from the P12 was Wake Forest at No. 174. Like Cal, Wazzu fired its coach after that season. Somehow Danny Manning lasted one more year at Wake Forest.

So, the program is by far the worst Power Conference program for two consecutive years. Then you have the fact that Cal does not have the budget, nor is it willing to spend the money on a practice facility or coaching staff. Mark Fox makes about $1.6 million and will top-out at the end of his five-year contract at $1.8 million. Not only is that the lowest contract in the country and the second-lowest in the conference (in front of, you guessed it, Wazzu), but it's also in one of the most expensive places to live in the world.

And then you have recruiting. Not only is Cal disadvantaged from academic standards and a lack of practice facility, but now it's also fighting against its own past. Kids being recruited now might remember Ivan Rabb or Jabari Bird or Jaylen Brown playing for Cal. But they probably don't remember Cal as being very good.

I don't say all of this to be super negative, even though I understand it might come off that way, or to defend Mark Fox. It's mainly a reminder that Cal's program was horrible. It'd take any team and coach a while to dig out of it.

Cal is at an interesting point. Because the team is likely to be much improved next year as long as everyone stays healthy and sticks around. That will be year three on Fox's five-year contract. That's when coaches generally start to look for an extension. There's no point in talking about a new coach until then.
Why would they be much improved? I heard that this year and disagreed. I disagree for next year.
oskidunker
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I just dont think until we get a good big man, aka center, we will not improve. We have 6'7" guys now. Bradley is great.
Go Bears!
CalLifer
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SFCityBear said:


He [Cuonzo] had no great success on the court, in conference, or in post season, and then he dumped Cal for Mizzou and bigger bucks.

I started a post on this in another thread, then decided I didn't want to go down that rathole, but seeing this, I feel like I do need to at least push back here. While I understand that Cuonzo is not much loved here, and he jumped ship leaving a bare cupboard, and he bristled and pushed back against the recruiting restrictions we gave him, I can't agree that he had no great success on the court. While he wasn't able to build on that 2015-2016 year, we can't forget that: 1) undefeated at home that season, 2) recruited 2 5-stars to Berkeley, one of whom is now a rising star both for his play in the NBA as well as his activism/thoughtfulness off the court, and 3) led us to our highest seed in the NCAA tournament in the 64 team era! Yes, he lost two critical players in the days before our NCAA opening game that derailed any chances we might have had, but we can't lose sight of the fact that by any measure, that was as nationally strong a regular season as we've had in quite some time in Berkeley (and while I don't go back as far as you, SFCB, I've been a Cal fan since I started at Cal at the late '80s, and remember watching KJ and the Bears end the streak against UCLA (before I started at Cal, but definitely remember it).

I know Cuonzo had his drawbacks, but no other Cal team has earned a No 4 seed in the tournament since it went to 64 teams, and I don't think that achievement should be overlooked/pooh-poohed.

BearlyCareAnymore
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SFCityBear said:

socaltownie said:


And lets be blunt - in my lifetime Cal has NEVER hired a coach would would be considered a great recruiter who had charisma and who was a natural sales person. MAYBE Tedford was good. MAYBE.


OK. I'll be blunt. You are younger than I am. In my lifetime, judging solely by the number of great players they recruited, there have been three coaches at Cal who were really good or maybe great recruiters: Pappy Waldorf in football and Jim Padgett and Todd Bozeman in basketball. Maybe Tedford, maybe Snyder for a couple of years. Waldorf was the most successful, taking Cal to three straight Rose Bowls, but he landed Cal on NCAA probation, with under the table recruiting practices. Tedford and Snyder had brief success, as did Bozeman, until he landed Cal on NCAA probation with under the table recruiting practices. Padgett was never found guilty of any recruiting violations, recruited the best basketball players as a group ever seen in Harmon or Haas, and his teams were all a failure. Of course, UCLA with Wooden and Kareem stood in his way, but Padgett's Cal teams couldn't even finish 2nd in the conference under Padgett. Cuonzo was not a great recruiter. He had only one good class, where he got two highly ranked players, neither one the kind you can build a program around. He had no great success on the court, in conference, or in post season, and then he dumped Cal for Mizzou and bigger bucks.

It's a small sample, but it is not a very good advertisement for hiring a coach who is a great recruiter to lead you to success, is it? It also indicates that Cal would take a risk hiring a great recruiter, because there is a good chance that great recruiter gets Cal put on probation, and we don't have an administration or big donors who are willing to back him and overlook his behavior, like coach Miller has at Arizona. When Pappy got caught, and eventually forced to retire, we got Pete Elliot, a terrible coach, who lucked out in getting Cal to the Rose Bowl when the conference had been depleted of good athletes due to several recruiting scandals and several teams on probation. He then went to Illinois, where he was forced to resign because of a slush fund scandal. Or take the case of Todd Bozeman, who put Cal on probation, and the University hired Ben Braun, to give Cal a squeaky clean program that would recruit well, but not outstanding recruiting, and Cal would have winning seasons, but never achieving much. His best recruiting class, with Leon Powe, et al, contributed to teams which were no better than his teams which had lower ranked recruits.

The solution is to find a coach who can recruit good players and coach them to championships, and that clearly is still not the university's goal. If you want that, you may want to change loyalties, or try and change the administration's mind. If I were looking for the next coach, I would not look for a great recruiter. There is way too much risk in that. The NCAA will always be looking into his recruiting practices. I would look at success. I am not interested in a coach who can wow fans by bringing in top recruits. I want a coach who can win a conference or at least get to the Final Game in the NCAA. He would have to have both of those things on his resume for me to put him at the top of my list. When Montgomery was hired (how did Sandy get away with hiring a guy who could coach real basketball?), I said at the time, all he has proven is that he can get a team to the Final Four, and it took him several years to do that, and that is his proven ceiling. He can win you a conference (which he did at Cal).

When Cal hired Newell, he had already won a national championship. Then he left for Michigan State, where he had four very mediocre years, and many Cal fans and administrators were against hiring Newell. They felt he was burned out, done, that he couldn't do it anymore, and also that it was harder to recruit at Cal than it had been at USF, etc. Well, Cal hired him, and the rest is Cal history, the best in Cal history. So if it was me, I'd be looking for a coach who has had proven success. No more assistant coaches, no more retreads like Fox, no more small school coaches like Braun. I would look at the NCAA and find coaches who have taken teams other than the top 5 or 6 schools, to the championship game, and maybe to a Final Four. Texas Tech, Loyola-Chicago, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Virginia. If the price range is too high, then I would look for coaches who have a record of consistently knocking off teams ranked higher than them, winning games they are not supposed to win. I would give less importance to bringing in high ranked recruits, because unless you have a coach who can get them to play together well enough to be a winner, you have nothing, and are wasting your time. Padgett, Braun, and Bozeman all proved that, didn't they? And if your problem is that Cal won't spend the money for a proven head coach, then come up with some creative ideas to raise the money, start organizing support and meeting with Cal administration to convince them they can do this, and if you aren't willing to do this, then we need to stop whining.


Tedford and Snyder were very good recruiters and very good coaches. They were good enough to get Cal where we want Cal to be. Snyder didn't get to finish the job. There were other issues under Tedford that I believe led to the decline in the program, some of them Tedford's fault.

Cuonzo sucked as a recruiter. Maybe he'd be better somewhere else. But he clearly was more interested in stamping his feet to no avail in the admissions office than adjusting what he needed to do. I in a lot of ways liked Cuonzo, but he thoroughly wrecked the program. Had he stayed it still would have been wrecked.

Padgett is before my time but I've heard the stories. I'm sorry, but just because we hired one recruiter who was a crappy coach doesn't mean we should forever avoid guys who are good recruiters.

Braun was not a great recruiter. He was okay. He was a good talent evaluator. He wasn't great at landing it. He also had a problem of thinking he could reform kids. When you talk about his supposed great class, I'll just tell you that the seeds of its destruction were there and it wasn't the coaching. Cal would have been far more successful if only half that class had shown up. His best class was the Patrick Christopher class. I'm a firm believer in coaches only having a certain amount of time to succeed and by that time Braun's window had passed. Braun is not an example of great recruiter bad coach.

Bozeman was a salesman. He wasn't a talent evaluator. He could go to the recruiting services, pick out the highest ranked guys he thought he had a shot at and sell the hell out of them. He had zero coaching ability. I think there were obvious recruiting issues from the beginning. He was certainly able to attract talent we couldn't sniff otherwise. However, he wasn't good at putting together the right components and the fact is his pipeline had dried up to nothing by the end. And with schollies on the shelf, he didn't offer one to Eddie House. Bozeman is not an argument against getting a recruiter. He's an argument against getting Bozeman.

No one is arguing to hire a great recruiter with no coaching ability. They are saying we need a skilled recruiter. The fact is you need both.

On recruiting, you need a coach that can recruit to Cal. Who can deal with the academics. Who can identify the guys who will thrive at Cal and who will find Cal appealing. You also need a guy that can recruit a team, not just parts. You need a guy who will recruit some leaders. And no, it can't be a guy who has no coaching ability.

In 2001, Tedford was that guy. IMO, we hired a great coach because we had two great coaches leading the process.

If you can find Pete Newell, great. You aren't finding Pete Newell. This is not the 1950's when you did not have the kind of competition for coaches you have now. You aren't finding Mike Montgomery unless you find another former great coach who retires from the NBA, wants to coach at a power conference school in the Bay Area and doesn't want it to be named Stanford.

Individual alums aren't coming up with creative ideas to raise the $50M it is going to take to hire today's Pete Newell. And, let's suppose that one of our extremely wealthy alums walked in and said, "I've suddenly taken an interest in basketball. Here is $100M. I want you to go out and find the best coach out there and pay him $10M year over 10 years to coach here" 1. There is no way Cal is doing that and taking the political ramifications on campus of paying top coaching money. 2. If Cal would do that, the Pete Newell that is out there today is going to look at Cal, look at the admissions requirement, look at the lack of administrative support, look at the lack of media coverage, look at the lack of fan base, and say "you know what - I'm good making $8M over here thanks."

Cal has to actually do some work and identify a young coach. They have to stop interviewing two candidates from a search firm and deciding in 24 hours. They need to find their Tedford.

In football, we have had 3 reasonably successful coaches since Waldorf. An assistant from Stanford. A Runningbacks coach from the Rams. And an assistant from Oregon. In basketball, it hasn't been very good. Monty fell into our laps. Other than that, I'd say our best coaches have been mid major coaches, but that isn't saying much.

If you want to dream about Cal paying the $6-$8M it would take to attract a Newell coach, you aren't getting anywhere. I see three options (first two total flyers):

1. Jason Kidd - not that I'm enamored with it. He'd attract recruits. He has coached NBA, not sure how good he'd be at the actual coaching. Don't think he is interested.
2. Hire the best damned woman coach you can find because no one else will do it and you can get her cheaper and get media attention and political brownie points. The top womens coaches make like 1/3 to 1/4 the top men's coaches, so if you are willing to take a chance that basketball is basketball then...
3. Or most likely, actually do a really hard job of not farming out the decision to a search firm that is going to give you the same names they give everybody. Call Monty. Call Sean Marks. Call Jason Kidd. Call Theo Robertson. Find anyone with Cal ties who is around the industry and might know who the good young coaches are. Put them on a committee and let them tell you who is the guy that has a real shot at developing into something. Cal is not paying for a Blue Chip stock here. Cal needs to find the stock that is poised to take off.
BearlyCareAnymore
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sluggo said:

OaktownBear said:

sluggo said:

stu said:

SFBear92 said:

The reason the team has no talent is because the coach can't recruit. Once again, another excuse.
IMHO through 2 years he has driven off more talent than he has brought in. The class coming in this fall looks promising but I'll have to see them play and develop. Also I don't see a center.

I think Fox is a competent coach, far better than Jones, but not close to Montgomery's level. I wouldn't expect a competent coach with a less than stellar roster to get us regular NCAA Tournament appearances.

If you think this new class will materially change the team, go see their highlights on youtube. I like Alajiki, but the other two will need to grow into roles, although they are athletic enough. I realize there is more projection than most years with the shutdown.
Forgive me, but I see a lot of people pointing to this class as some sort of turnaround. I know 3 things about recruiting. 1. I have no ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 2. No one on this board has any ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 3. The best way to get a sense of the quality of a class is ratings by recruiting services and what other schools have offered them.

Based on that, smart money says we have one recruit who likely develops into a player who could start on a power conference team that finishes in the top half of conference and two players who are likely role players on such a team but will likely develop into starters for us in a few years. I'm sorry, but statistically speaking getting an offer from a last place Power conference team and a bunch of mid majors, or 2 last place Power conference teams and a bunch of mid majors does not lead to turning a program competitive. Of course we need to see what they will do, but some people here are banking on it leading to big improvement and there is nothing that indicates that is the case. There is nothing to indicate that Fox is a coach like Monty that gets more out of his players than their talent would suggest. Fox's recruiting classes have ranked 10th and 8th in conference. That doesn't add up to improvement
I disagree. Highlight tapes are instructive, game tapes even better. I think I can tell, not every time, but better than just using star rankings or offers. You can say I am fooling myself. Maybe I am.

There are some recruits that are so good that they are obvious from video, like Jaylen Brown and Jabari Bird. There are some who clearly should not have been recruited, like Deschon Winston and Bak Bak. Guys in the middle are more difficult, obviously. But basketball skills and athleticism are there to be seen if you watch. How players will develop depends a lot on them, and no one can know, but it is more likely if they have less of a way to go.

I was very clear that I thought Celestine was under ranked and was the star of his small class. I am saying the same thing about Alajiki. I don't think this is a program changing class by any means. I am on record. I don't expect anyone to care what I say.

sluggo. I don't know you or your background. Maybe you are the guy who knows. Look, my claim to fame (only in my head) was that I saw Ryan Anderson coming. Not because I can watch film. Because I looked at a guy who was dominating high school ball (so could play in a team concept) was going to AAU tournaments and leading in scoring (so could compete with top talent) and was a scoring machine in pro ams (again against top talent).

But unless someone here has some particular qualifications, there are people who earn money selling their analysis to college programs (recruiting services) and there are people whose sometimes 7 figure salaries depend on evaluating talent (coaches) and I don't see how I should take anyone's opinion here over that. So if no recruiting service sees it, and no power conference coach sees it, I'm not buying it.

That is not to say you may not be right about Alajiki, but I don't know you from adam and there are literally people on this board who have said the same thing about each of our 3 recruits. If you have that confidence in your opinion, great, and you will see what is coming before I do. I don't believe my opinion is better than D1 basketball coaches and recruiting services. I simply see no reason to buy into this class as changing the trajectory of the program as some seem to.
BearlyCareAnymore
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calumnus said:

stu said:

Quote:

And lets be blunt - in my lifetime Cal has NEVER hired a coach would would be considered a great recruiter who had charisma and who was a natural sales person. MAYBE Tedford was good. MAYBE.
Todd Bozeman?

Joe Kapp
Todd Bozeman
Steve Mariucci
Cuonzo Martin
3 of those aren't even close.
Golden One
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Big C said:





Perhaps the larger problem is that nobody really cares. Heck, I find myself caring less than I have just about any time in the last few decades. The team is losing, they are boring and I can't even go to Haas and at least hang out with my old buddies.


I think that pretty well describes the situation with most Cal fans.
socaliganbear
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sluggo said:

NathanAllen said:

socaltownie said:

Look - Fox can coach. That is pretty clear last year and, while it is hard to judge in COVID land - there are flashes of it this year.

BUT COACHING IS NOT ENOUGH TO WIN IN THE PAC 12

You have

A marketing extension of the world's largest shoe company that is dressed up as a university athletic program

A Storied program that gets all the attention they could ask for from the 2nd largest city in the country's media market

A university that doesn't give jack **** about a coach who PAID for players as long as he wins

A program (Utah) with clearly a great coach who is better than Fox (who wouldn't right now trade a nobel winner and Fox for Larry K?)


It is simply the case that Cal needs more talent. And arguably the same could be said in Football - a program ALSO being run by clearly a good coach but who has to compete on an unlevel playing field.

And lets be blunt - in my lifetime Cal has NEVER hired a coach would would be considered a great recruiter who had charisma and who was a natural sales person. MAYBE Tedford was good. MAYBE.


I get your points. But let's not pretend the Pac-12 is a college hoops juggernaut or that these things don't happen in other P5 conferences.

I also get there's a lot of frustration, overreactions, and message board hot-takes after a turd of a game against a rival during a five-game losing streak and a 2-11 record in a pretty bad P12.

But let's not forget the context. First, just how bad the team was when Fox took over. At its worst during Jones's last season, Cal was No. 289 in Kenpom. It finished the season at No. 240 thanks to its three-game win streak to close the season and only losing to Colorado by five in the P12 conference tournament. Still, the teams ranked next to Cal were Sacred Heart and Army. The next-lowest ranked Power Conference team was Wazzu at No. 207. The next lowest team not from the P12 was Wake Forest at No. 174. Like Cal, Wazzu fired its coach after that season. Somehow Danny Manning lasted one more year at Wake Forest.

So, the program is by far the worst Power Conference program for two consecutive years. Then you have the fact that Cal does not have the budget, nor is it willing to spend the money on a practice facility or coaching staff. Mark Fox makes about $1.6 million and will top-out at the end of his five-year contract at $1.8 million. Not only is that the lowest contract in the country and the second-lowest in the conference (in front of, you guessed it, Wazzu), but it's also in one of the most expensive places to live in the world.

And then you have recruiting. Not only is Cal disadvantaged from academic standards and a lack of practice facility, but now it's also fighting against its own past. Kids being recruited now might remember Ivan Rabb or Jabari Bird or Jaylen Brown playing for Cal. But they probably don't remember Cal as being very good.

I don't say all of this to be super negative, even though I understand it might come off that way, or to defend Mark Fox. It's mainly a reminder that Cal's program was horrible. It'd take any team and coach a while to dig out of it.

Cal is at an interesting point. Because the team is likely to be much improved next year as long as everyone stays healthy and sticks around. That will be year three on Fox's five-year contract. That's when coaches generally start to look for an extension. There's no point in talking about a new coach until then.
Why would they be much improved? I heard that this year and disagreed. I disagree for next year.


I think it likely that next year we'll still be boring, all around bad, and years away from the post season, but still technically improved from this season.

Overall, I'd guess the goal for the AD, based on who he hired, is not embarrassing, NIT regular, with tolerable academics. One or two first round exits per decade would be a cherry on top. I highly doubt Jim Knowlton has conference championship aspirations, or expectations.
drizzlybear
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OaktownBear said:

Big C said:

OaktownBear said:

sluggo said:

stu said:

SFBear92 said:

The reason the team has no talent is because the coach can't recruit. Once again, another excuse.
IMHO through 2 years he has driven off more talent than he has brought in. The class coming in this fall looks promising but I'll have to see them play and develop. Also I don't see a center.

I think Fox is a competent coach, far better than Jones, but not close to Montgomery's level. I wouldn't expect a competent coach with a less than stellar roster to get us regular NCAA Tournament appearances.

If you think this new class will materially change the team, go see their highlights on youtube. I like Alajiki, but the other two will need to grow into roles, although they are athletic enough. I realize there is more projection than most years with the shutdown.
Forgive me, but I see a lot of people pointing to this class as some sort of turnaround. I know 3 things about recruiting. 1. I have no ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 2. No one on this board has any ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 3. The best way to get a sense of the quality of a class is ratings by recruiting services and what other schools have offered them.

Based on that, smart money says we have one recruit who likely develops into a player who could start on a power conference team that finishes in the top half of conference and two players who are likely role players on such a team but will likely develop into starters for us in a few years. I'm sorry, but statistically speaking getting an offer from a last place Power conference team and a bunch of mid majors, or 2 last place Power conference teams and a bunch of mid majors does not lead to turning a program competitive. Of course we need to see what they will do, but some people here are banking on it leading to big improvement and there is nothing that indicates that is the case. There is nothing to indicate that Fox is a coach like Monty that gets more out of his players than their talent would suggest. Fox's recruiting classes have ranked 10th and 8th in conference. That doesn't add up to improvement

I don't disagree with any of your points. The question is, what do we do about it? It seems like our best option, all things considered, is to wait 11-12 months and then begin to reevaluate Fox' status.

What about in the meantime? "We" can educate our Athletic Director on how to hire a basketball coach and "we" can move things forward on getting a dedicated practice facility. (notice "we" in quotation marks, as there is little that you or I can realistically do to advance either of those)

Perhaps the larger problem is that nobody really cares. Heck, I find myself caring less than I have just about any time in the last few decades. The team is losing, they are boring and I can't even go to Haas and at least hang out with my old buddies.

So I'm getting through this period on irrational hope: Maybe we'll be better next season! Go Bears!

Don't underestimate a little hope: It's largely what has kept Cal Football and Basketball fans going since as long as I can remember. Did I say "Go Bears" yet? Oh yes, I already did. It's the cry of the hopeful Cal Fan!


Personally, the Wyking Jones era made more sense and was a lot more honest. We stop pretending Cal wants to have a good basketball program. We get the cheapest coach we can find. We don't pretend to our fans we are going to try. We roll a team out there because we have to as a conference member. We collect our conference share of the earnings and we live off that and don't expect our fans to fund it or show up. Not saying I like it, but it's honest and makes financial sense. Frankly, I wouldn't bother complaining.

Instead of rolling with that, we decided to plunk down more than an additional $6m over 5 years and hope to con Cal fans into believing they care. Cal will not remotely put a dent in that in extra revenue. So since they decided to spend that money I'm going to complain

That's absurd. Come on, OTB.
tthompson993
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Just a point of clarification for Sluggo who indicated that we didn't recruit a point guard in the 2021 class. I went to two O'Dowd games last season and Roberson played the point in each game and very well I might add. He scored the ball well and made several good passes to Bowser and Lewis. I said in another post, I believe that Roberson will or probably should be the starting point guard next year by the start of conference unless there is some type of major improvement in Brown's ability to shoot and Hyder's ability to do anything. Roberson is a born leader and that should have real positive impact on next year's team. He is definitely a true 4 star recruit.
drizzlybear
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I think people want a magic man. And not just a regular magic man, but like an especially remarkable one.
SFCityBear
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CalLifer said:

SFCityBear said:


He [Cuonzo] had no great success on the court, in conference, or in post season, and then he dumped Cal for Mizzou and bigger bucks.

I started a post on this in another thread, then decided I didn't want to go down that rathole, but seeing this, I feel like I do need to at least push back here. While I understand that Cuonzo is not much loved here, and he jumped ship leaving a bare cupboard, and he bristled and pushed back against the recruiting restrictions we gave him, I can't agree that he had no great success on the court. While he wasn't able to build on that 2015-2016 year, we can't forget that: 1) undefeated at home that season, 2) recruited 2 5-stars to Berkeley, one of whom is now a rising star both for his play in the NBA as well as his activism/thoughtfulness off the court, and 3) led us to our highest seed in the NCAA tournament in the 64 team era! Yes, he lost two critical players in the days before our NCAA opening game that derailed any chances we might have had, but we can't lose sight of the fact that by any measure, that was as nationally strong a regular season as we've had in quite some time in Berkeley (and while I don't go back as far as you, SFCB, I've been a Cal fan since I started at Cal at the late '80s, and remember watching KJ and the Bears end the streak against UCLA (before I started at Cal, but definitely remember it).

I know Cuonzo had his drawbacks, but no other Cal team has earned a No 4 seed in the tournament since it went to 64 teams, and I don't think that achievement should be overlooked/pooh-poohed.


I understand your points. I'm sorry to offend you over Cuonzo. He has plenty of fans here at Cal, for the reasons you stated. You and I just have a generational difference, and I am stuck in mine. Because I saw Cal win the NCAA title early in my life, and I went to every home game that season, and the next season, when Cal lost in the NCAA final, I guess I rightly or wrongly expected to see more of that at Cal. Cal won four conference titles in a row, had 4 NCAA appearances, in the day when you had to win the conference even to get an invite to the dance. So it was really important to win the conference, if you ever wanted to play in the post season. Nowadays, you can finish 5th in your conference and still get invited to the NCAA, if the conference is a strong one. So road games were really important for Cal in those days. There was no strength of schedule, or an RPI that the NCAA judges looked at when selecting teams, I don't believe. Newell and Wooden would travel all over the country to play the better teams, and try to bring some to Harmon as well. They did not look to play patsies to pad the record. They played all the local teams, and were not afraid of what it might do to their RPI if they lost.

So winning was what was important to me, not high finishes, or seeds in tournaments (no one that I remembered even talked about such things when I was young and Cal was one of the best teams in the country). Also, the NCAA was regional, provincial. If your conference was in the West, and you won your conference, you would be invited to the West Regional, period. This made sometimes for a weak field, when some conferences might be having a down year. The NCAA decided that the better Independents could have play-in games to get into the Regionals. There were many teams who were independent in those days, unlike today. So it was a big deal when you won the West Regional. It may have even gotten your team a trophy. Now the dictators at the NCAA seed teams, and choose which regional they will play in. The only thing regional about a Regional today is the location of the arena. In my day, if you won the West Regional, you were the best team in the West, no doubt about it. Today, you could be the best team in the west, and end up playing in a regional in Iowa or New Jersey.

My point is that success in basketball to me has always been about winning something. A conference, a regional, a Final. I could care less about seeds, team rankings, or recruit rankings. Those are all just opinions of other humans, and they are welcome to them. I don't consider them to be accomplishments, or successes. Success for me is winning something. Today that would mean games, conferences, conference tournaments, and the NCAA tournament. If each Regional was played in one arena, I'd include winning a Regional.

Today kids in many sports get trophies for participating. Many schools have experimented with eliminating grades. Some kids in high school get grade point averages higher than 4.0 for activities unrelated to academics. In my day, you only got a trophy for winning. I prefer to emphasize the positive in life, when I can. I'd rather say my team won their Sweet 16 game, than say they lost in the Elite 8. I respect your opinion. It is a widely held one, unlike mine.
SFCityBear
sluggo
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OaktownBear said:

sluggo said:

OaktownBear said:

sluggo said:

stu said:

SFBear92 said:

The reason the team has no talent is because the coach can't recruit. Once again, another excuse.
IMHO through 2 years he has driven off more talent than he has brought in. The class coming in this fall looks promising but I'll have to see them play and develop. Also I don't see a center.

I think Fox is a competent coach, far better than Jones, but not close to Montgomery's level. I wouldn't expect a competent coach with a less than stellar roster to get us regular NCAA Tournament appearances.

If you think this new class will materially change the team, go see their highlights on youtube. I like Alajiki, but the other two will need to grow into roles, although they are athletic enough. I realize there is more projection than most years with the shutdown.
Forgive me, but I see a lot of people pointing to this class as some sort of turnaround. I know 3 things about recruiting. 1. I have no ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 2. No one on this board has any ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 3. The best way to get a sense of the quality of a class is ratings by recruiting services and what other schools have offered them.

Based on that, smart money says we have one recruit who likely develops into a player who could start on a power conference team that finishes in the top half of conference and two players who are likely role players on such a team but will likely develop into starters for us in a few years. I'm sorry, but statistically speaking getting an offer from a last place Power conference team and a bunch of mid majors, or 2 last place Power conference teams and a bunch of mid majors does not lead to turning a program competitive. Of course we need to see what they will do, but some people here are banking on it leading to big improvement and there is nothing that indicates that is the case. There is nothing to indicate that Fox is a coach like Monty that gets more out of his players than their talent would suggest. Fox's recruiting classes have ranked 10th and 8th in conference. That doesn't add up to improvement
I disagree. Highlight tapes are instructive, game tapes even better. I think I can tell, not every time, but better than just using star rankings or offers. You can say I am fooling myself. Maybe I am.

There are some recruits that are so good that they are obvious from video, like Jaylen Brown and Jabari Bird. There are some who clearly should not have been recruited, like Deschon Winston and Bak Bak. Guys in the middle are more difficult, obviously. But basketball skills and athleticism are there to be seen if you watch. How players will develop depends a lot on them, and no one can know, but it is more likely if they have less of a way to go.

I was very clear that I thought Celestine was under ranked and was the star of his small class. I am saying the same thing about Alajiki. I don't think this is a program changing class by any means. I am on record. I don't expect anyone to care what I say.

sluggo. I don't know you or your background. Maybe you are the guy who knows. Look, my claim to fame (only in my head) was that I saw Ryan Anderson coming. Not because I can watch film. Because I looked at a guy who was dominating high school ball (so could play in a team concept) was going to AAU tournaments and leading in scoring (so could compete with top talent) and was a scoring machine in pro ams (again against top talent).

But unless someone here has some particular qualifications, there are people who earn money selling their analysis to college programs (recruiting services) and there are people whose sometimes 7 figure salaries depend on evaluating talent (coaches) and I don't see how I should take anyone's opinion here over that. So if no recruiting service sees it, and no power conference coach sees it, I'm not buying it.

That is not to say you may not be right about Alajiki, but I don't know you from adam and there are literally people on this board who have said the same thing about each of our 3 recruits. If you have that confidence in your opinion, great, and you will see what is coming before I do. I don't believe my opinion is better than D1 basketball coaches and recruiting services. I simply see no reason to buy into this class as changing the trajectory of the program as some seem to.
No background whatsoever. High school basketball player where I spent A LOT of time on the bench. But I have always been passionate about watching the game. In high school I drove 100 miles to watch a CIF playoff game between Stevie Thompson and Jud Buechler with only a vague idea of how to get to the site of the game. Have watched a lot of basketball and seen a lot of players. You are right to think I am FOS.

As to expertise, lots of people pay lots of money for experts who obviously don't know what they are talking about. How many stock pickers can beat index funds? On the basketball side, the Warriors pay millions for scouting but in the last three years have chosen Jacob Evans, Jordan Poole and Nico Mannion. I think anyone with an eye can say useful things about high school recruits. Here, BearGreg, who I assume does not have a special background, gives useful scouting tips of Cal football players.

I think offers are a better predictor than rankings. Based on that, Alajiki and Roberson would be ranked much lower than Anyanwu. But I see it differently. On the other hand, players change, and what I have seen is from a year ago. Celestine got much better during the offseason between his junior and senior years, but then got hurt. It could be that Cal's players have improved in the last year. I am a fan and am rooting for them. But there is no reason from the videos a year ago to think they will change the trajectory. So I agree with you on that part.
sluggo
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tthompson993 said:

Just a point of clarification for Sluggo who indicated that we didn't recruit a point guard in the 2021 class. I went to two O'Dowd games last season and Roberson played the point in each game and very well I might add. He scored the ball well and made several good passes to Bowser and Lewis. I said in another post, I believe that Roberson will or probably should be the starting point guard next year by the start of conference unless there is some type of major improvement in Brown's ability to shoot and Hyder's ability to do anything. Roberson is a born leader and that should have real positive impact on next year's team. He is definitely a true 4 star recruit.
Watched a few more BOD highlights. Roberson did not seem to be the point in them, though I believe you saw what you saw. He plays somewhat like Tyrone Wallace, who played both on and off the ball. I am not so into positions, but I think he is likely to be off the ball at Cal. I don't think he could run an offense, or do much else for that matter, if Joel Brown was guarding him.

He comes from a great high school basketball program, so everyone knew about him, but yet his only good offer was Cal. So the world voted and did not see the type of player who would beat out Brown as a freshman. Last year he had great leaping ability and good size, and I think being left handed is underrated. But he was not so fluid on the ball and had a slow motion outside shot (that I suspect is unreliable but did not watch whole game footage), almost a push shot. Compared to Bowser, who is am amazing athlete, he did not appear that quick. But that was a year ago and he could definitely have improved.
BearlyCareAnymore
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drizzlybear said:

OaktownBear said:

Big C said:

OaktownBear said:

sluggo said:

stu said:

SFBear92 said:

The reason the team has no talent is because the coach can't recruit. Once again, another excuse.
IMHO through 2 years he has driven off more talent than he has brought in. The class coming in this fall looks promising but I'll have to see them play and develop. Also I don't see a center.

I think Fox is a competent coach, far better than Jones, but not close to Montgomery's level. I wouldn't expect a competent coach with a less than stellar roster to get us regular NCAA Tournament appearances.

If you think this new class will materially change the team, go see their highlights on youtube. I like Alajiki, but the other two will need to grow into roles, although they are athletic enough. I realize there is more projection than most years with the shutdown.
Forgive me, but I see a lot of people pointing to this class as some sort of turnaround. I know 3 things about recruiting. 1. I have no ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 2. No one on this board has any ability to judge the talent of recruits by looking at them. 3. The best way to get a sense of the quality of a class is ratings by recruiting services and what other schools have offered them.

Based on that, smart money says we have one recruit who likely develops into a player who could start on a power conference team that finishes in the top half of conference and two players who are likely role players on such a team but will likely develop into starters for us in a few years. I'm sorry, but statistically speaking getting an offer from a last place Power conference team and a bunch of mid majors, or 2 last place Power conference teams and a bunch of mid majors does not lead to turning a program competitive. Of course we need to see what they will do, but some people here are banking on it leading to big improvement and there is nothing that indicates that is the case. There is nothing to indicate that Fox is a coach like Monty that gets more out of his players than their talent would suggest. Fox's recruiting classes have ranked 10th and 8th in conference. That doesn't add up to improvement

I don't disagree with any of your points. The question is, what do we do about it? It seems like our best option, all things considered, is to wait 11-12 months and then begin to reevaluate Fox' status.

What about in the meantime? "We" can educate our Athletic Director on how to hire a basketball coach and "we" can move things forward on getting a dedicated practice facility. (notice "we" in quotation marks, as there is little that you or I can realistically do to advance either of those)

Perhaps the larger problem is that nobody really cares. Heck, I find myself caring less than I have just about any time in the last few decades. The team is losing, they are boring and I can't even go to Haas and at least hang out with my old buddies.

So I'm getting through this period on irrational hope: Maybe we'll be better next season! Go Bears!

Don't underestimate a little hope: It's largely what has kept Cal Football and Basketball fans going since as long as I can remember. Did I say "Go Bears" yet? Oh yes, I already did. It's the cry of the hopeful Cal Fan!


Personally, the Wyking Jones era made more sense and was a lot more honest. We stop pretending Cal wants to have a good basketball program. We get the cheapest coach we can find. We don't pretend to our fans we are going to try. We roll a team out there because we have to as a conference member. We collect our conference share of the earnings and we live off that and don't expect our fans to fund it or show up. Not saying I like it, but it's honest and makes financial sense. Frankly, I wouldn't bother complaining.

Instead of rolling with that, we decided to plunk down more than an additional $6m over 5 years and hope to con Cal fans into believing they care. Cal will not remotely put a dent in that in extra revenue. So since they decided to spend that money I'm going to complain

That's absurd. Come on, OTB.
You miss my point.

I'd rather they try and be successful.

Between not trying and not trying but paying $6M in a PR move to pretend to try, I choose not trying. Between last place in conference and paying $6M for last place, I'll keep the $6M

Jones made sense if you accepted it as a purely monetary give up move. Better sense would be to hire someone that might actually get you some success. Hiring a more expensive coach that does not have the attributes to make your program successful makes no sense.
BearlyCareAnymore
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socaliganbear said:

sluggo said:

NathanAllen said:

socaltownie said:

Look - Fox can coach. That is pretty clear last year and, while it is hard to judge in COVID land - there are flashes of it this year.

BUT COACHING IS NOT ENOUGH TO WIN IN THE PAC 12

You have

A marketing extension of the world's largest shoe company that is dressed up as a university athletic program

A Storied program that gets all the attention they could ask for from the 2nd largest city in the country's media market

A university that doesn't give jack **** about a coach who PAID for players as long as he wins

A program (Utah) with clearly a great coach who is better than Fox (who wouldn't right now trade a nobel winner and Fox for Larry K?)


It is simply the case that Cal needs more talent. And arguably the same could be said in Football - a program ALSO being run by clearly a good coach but who has to compete on an unlevel playing field.

And lets be blunt - in my lifetime Cal has NEVER hired a coach would would be considered a great recruiter who had charisma and who was a natural sales person. MAYBE Tedford was good. MAYBE.


I get your points. But let's not pretend the Pac-12 is a college hoops juggernaut or that these things don't happen in other P5 conferences.

I also get there's a lot of frustration, overreactions, and message board hot-takes after a turd of a game against a rival during a five-game losing streak and a 2-11 record in a pretty bad P12.

But let's not forget the context. First, just how bad the team was when Fox took over. At its worst during Jones's last season, Cal was No. 289 in Kenpom. It finished the season at No. 240 thanks to its three-game win streak to close the season and only losing to Colorado by five in the P12 conference tournament. Still, the teams ranked next to Cal were Sacred Heart and Army. The next-lowest ranked Power Conference team was Wazzu at No. 207. The next lowest team not from the P12 was Wake Forest at No. 174. Like Cal, Wazzu fired its coach after that season. Somehow Danny Manning lasted one more year at Wake Forest.

So, the program is by far the worst Power Conference program for two consecutive years. Then you have the fact that Cal does not have the budget, nor is it willing to spend the money on a practice facility or coaching staff. Mark Fox makes about $1.6 million and will top-out at the end of his five-year contract at $1.8 million. Not only is that the lowest contract in the country and the second-lowest in the conference (in front of, you guessed it, Wazzu), but it's also in one of the most expensive places to live in the world.

And then you have recruiting. Not only is Cal disadvantaged from academic standards and a lack of practice facility, but now it's also fighting against its own past. Kids being recruited now might remember Ivan Rabb or Jabari Bird or Jaylen Brown playing for Cal. But they probably don't remember Cal as being very good.

I don't say all of this to be super negative, even though I understand it might come off that way, or to defend Mark Fox. It's mainly a reminder that Cal's program was horrible. It'd take any team and coach a while to dig out of it.

Cal is at an interesting point. Because the team is likely to be much improved next year as long as everyone stays healthy and sticks around. That will be year three on Fox's five-year contract. That's when coaches generally start to look for an extension. There's no point in talking about a new coach until then.
Why would they be much improved? I heard that this year and disagreed. I disagree for next year.


I think it likely that next year we'll still be boring, all around bad, and years away from the post season, but still technically improved from this season.

Overall, I'd guess the goal for the AD, based on who he hired, is not embarrassing, NIT regular, with tolerable academics. One or two first round exits per decade would be a cherry on top. I highly doubt Jim Knowlton has conference championship aspirations, or expectations.
If that was the goal, he missed.
 
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