Stanford Jonah said:
CalLifer said:
Big C said:
Stanford Jonah said:
OaktownBear said:
calumnus said:
NathanAllen said:
calumnus said:
NathanAllen said:
CalLifer said:
Quote:
Your last point about Fox is an interesting one as I now wonder what you think his ceiling is. It's interesting to me because I personally never saw Fox as a high-ceiling guy (even after last year). To me, last year was exactly why you hire a coach like Fox. He immediately raises the FLOOR of your program. So, again to me, this year is more concerning from the fact that I thought bringing in Fox would basically keep the floor of Cal's program respectable. It changes nothing about my expectations of ceiling, but it does change my expectations of floor, if that makes sense.
So I guess my view of his ceiling now is being at the top of the bottom-dwellers and occasionally challenging for middle of the Pac, which is a tier below where I thought. His floor is a tier below that .
My idea of a ceiling for him is still in the top-four or so of the league and getting an NCAA birth every once in a while. But I can understand why this year would cause hesitation towards that. I just still think it was a weird year and need some more data points before I feel good dropping his ceiling in my own opinion.
You keep saying "this year." What in last year or in his 9 years at Georgia makes you think that? What is it about his coaching philosophy, personality or tactics that you think is attractive to recruits and/or will get Cal to the top 4 in the league?
Because he's finished top-four in the SEC (a better league) and made it to the NCAA tournament "once in a while" at UGA. I'm not saying he does that at Cal. And I'm not saying that's the baseline. I'm saying that's what I imagined his ceiling would be when he was hired and I still think that could be the case. Maybe not. Maybe this is too much of a rebuild for him. We'll see.
1. The SEC is not better overall. Maybe the last few years, but that only makes the record he just set for PAC-12 losses even worse.
2. I think you need to look at how he "succeeded" at Georgia and if that translates to Cal. I don't think the style of basketball he favors plays well here on the West Coast in the shadow of Kerr's Warriors. His management style does not play well in the Bay Area and with student-athletes who would otherwise be attracted to Cal.
Nothing I've seen from him makes me think he has a good chance of elevating us to a top 40 team on a regular basis. We will peak next year with Wyking's remaining players as seniors.
Coach A takes over a last place team. 3 players leave shortly after meeting him. 2 years later His rotation is mostly made up of players he inherited and two lesser conference grad transfers who can't shoot. He finishes last place
Coach B takes over a last place team in late July after the spring recruiting is done. Half the team is gone before he walks in the door. 2 years later he has completely made over the roster. Almost every major contributor is his guy. He finishes first and wins the conference tourney.
Man that Coach B has to prove himself. Coach A is good to go.
At the mid-major level, success is defined by coaching acumen and player development. The players at the mid-major level had some flaw that caused them not to be recruited by the power conference schools. The most successful coaches separate the wheat from the chafe. But the WAC was a top heavy conference with a lot of bottom feeders.
At the power conference level, you win with players first and coaching second. If you can't get the best players to play for you, there is a ceiling on what you can do. Fox has proven in spades that he can't get the best players to come.
If I was to interview Dennis Gates for the position here, 80% of my questions would be about recruiting. If you can't recruit talent in a power conference, you are dead coach walking.
What if he could talk the talk, but couldn't walk the walk?
I think the point many of us in the Cal-should-have-hired-someone-other-than-Fox (and obviously Jones) camp are making is that in the position that Cal is hiring from, every realistic hire is going to come with some risk. It's either risk that they are stepping up a level (P5 assistant to P5 HC, or mid-major HC to P5 HC), or that they have proven themselves average in a P5 HC role and we are hoping they have learned and can be better. Gates, or DeCuire, or someone in that mold, at least have not already proven they can't consistently win at the P5 level. If the hire was guaranteed to be a homerun, that hire would be way out of Cal's league.
That is most certainly NOT the point.
So I was trying to respond to the question of "what if gates were to give all the right answers re: recruiting in the interview, but then failed when actually recruiting?" And I was trying to make the point that yes, you do run that risk, but every hire that Cal is realistically going to make is going to come with some risk. I'm not denying or changing the point away from whether recruiting is the most important part of the job (or the only point of the job). I'm only pointing out that every hire is going to have some risk. Even if you believe that recruiting is the only important part of the job, Cal is not in the running to hire someone who is guaranteed to recruit at a high level. Cal can target someone who they believe will (1) prioritize it, and (2) have a plan for it, but until they do it here it's all talk.
That was my point re: risk. You can understand the risks of the person you are hiring and have a plan for it, but Cal's inherent limitations (current state of the program, lack of money, no practice facility, etc.) realistically means that we are not hiring anyone who is guaranteed to be a success. You just have to choose which risks you want to live with.