Is OSU the formula for success at Cal?

HoopDreams

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10:28a, 3/14/21

People have pointed to Colorado as the formula for success at Cal. Maybe so ... veteran team of 3 stars, one elite star (who wasn't even in the top 200 recruits) and a solid set of role players

But I think OSU is the formula Cal should follow. In the 3 Pac 12 Tournament games, OSU won the game by hitting 3s:

vs UCLA - 10/25 (40%)
vs. Oregon - 10/19 (52%)
vs. Colorado - 9/22 (41%)

That's 29 treys, at a blistering 44% in three games against the top of the conference

The 3 are giant killers as we've seen many times with upsets

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sluggo

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In reply to HoopDreams • 1:19p, 3/14/21

HoopDreams said:
People have pointed to Colorado as the formula for success at Cal. Maybe so ... veteran team of 3 stars, one elite star (who wasn't even in the top 200 recruits) and a solid set of role players

But I think OSU is the formula Cal should follow. In the 3 Pac 12 Tournament games, OSU won the game by hitting 3s:

vs UCLA - 10/25 (40%)
vs. Oregon - 10/19 (52%)
vs. Colorado - 9/22 (41%)

That's 29 treys, at a blistering 44% in three games against the top of the conference

The 3 are giant killers as we've seen many times with upsets

If you look at the stats Cal shot .328 on 7 threes per game and their opponents shot .374 on 6.6 threes per game. So to make this a strategy they need better shooters or better 3 point shots. Probably both. None of the incoming recruits are great shooters. So this won't happen soon.

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NathanAllen

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In reply to HoopDreams • 5:02p, 3/14/21

Staff

HoopDreams said:
People have pointed to Colorado as the formula for success at Cal. Maybe so ... veteran team of 3 stars, one elite star (who wasn't even in the top 200 recruits) and a solid set of role players

But I think OSU is the formula Cal should follow. In the 3 Pac 12 Tournament games, OSU won the game by hitting 3s:

vs UCLA - 10/25 (40%)
vs. Oregon - 10/19 (52%)
vs. Colorado - 9/22 (41%)

That's 29 treys, at a blistering 44% in three games against the top of the conference

The 3 are giant killers as we've seen many times with upsets

I'm not sure about model, but this is a good example of what I was saying in the Colorado (3.0) Thoughts thread on the HP board.

That is, 3P%, TO%, and FTA/FGA are probably the three most important aspects to the modern college game (IMO), in that order.

Oregon State ranked 10th in the conference in 3P% in league games this year (33.0%). Only UW (32.9%) and Cal (32.3%) shot worse in P12 games this season. So those blistering percentages they shot were not at all the norm, and played the biggest role in three major upsets.

Here's the flip side of it (opponent 3P%):

UCLA (25.0%)
Oregon (24.0%)
Colorado (31.6%)

Oregon (39.4%), UCLA (39.0%), and Colorado (36.3%) ranked first, second, and fourth in 3P% in league games and had below-average 3P% nights. If UCLA shoots their average, OSU doesn't make it out of the first round.

Here's another example. Colorado shot 28.0% against Cal, 50.0% against USC, and 31.6% against OSU from deep. The game it shot the worst, it almost lost to the last-placed team in the league. The game it shot its best, it beat one of the best teams in the league. The game it shot below average, it lost by two to a middle-of-the-pack team.

And here are the TO% rates for OSU's tournament games:

15.9% vs UCLA (18.6%)
25.0% vs Oregon (14.1%)
11.9% vs Colorado (15.2%)

And FTA/FGA:

49.2 vs UCLA (42.9)
42.0 vs Oregon (30.9)
30.8 vs Colorado (37.7)

So of these three key categories, OSU two of three against Oregon and Colorado and won all three against UCLA.

This is why March Madness is the greatest sporting event ever. One team gets hot from three and chaos ensues.

HoopDreams

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In reply to NathanAllen • 6:33p, 3/14/21

Interesting that OSU just got hot in the Pac12 tournament

I've said in a few games, sometimes we just need someone to make some plays

NathanAllen said:
HoopDreams said:
People have pointed to Colorado as the formula for success at Cal. Maybe so ... veteran team of 3 stars, one elite star (who wasn't even in the top 200 recruits) and a solid set of role players

But I think OSU is the formula Cal should follow. In the 3 Pac 12 Tournament games, OSU won the game by hitting 3s:

vs UCLA - 10/25 (40%)
vs. Oregon - 10/19 (52%)
vs. Colorado - 9/22 (41%)

That's 29 treys, at a blistering 44% in three games against the top of the conference

The 3 are giant killers as we've seen many times with upsets
I'm not sure about model, but this is a good example of what I was saying in the Colorado (3.0) Thoughts thread on the HP board.

That is, 3P%, TO%, and FTA/FGA are probably the three most important aspects to the modern college game (IMO), in that order.

Oregon State ranked 10th in the conference in 3P% in league games this year (33.0%). Only UW (32.9%) and Cal (32.3%) shot worse in P12 games this season. So those blistering percentages they shot were not at all the norm, and played the biggest role in three major upsets.

Here's the flip side of it (opponent 3P%):

UCLA (25.0%)
Oregon (24.0%)
Colorado (31.6%)

Oregon (39.4%), UCLA (39.0%), and Colorado (36.3%) ranked first, second, and fourth in 3P% in league games and had below-average 3P% nights. If UCLA shoots their average, OSU doesn't make it out of the first round.

Here's another example. Colorado shot 28.0% against Cal, 50.0% against USC, and 31.6% against OSU from deep. The game it shot the worst, it almost lost to the last-placed team in the league. The game it shot its best, it beat one of the best teams in the league. The game it shot below average, it lost by two to a middle-of-the-pack team.

And here are the TO% rates for OSU's tournament games:

15.9% vs UCLA (18.6%)
25.0% vs Oregon (14.1%)
11.9% vs Colorado (15.2%)

And FTA/FGA:

49.2 vs UCLA (42.9)
42.0 vs Oregon (30.9)
30.8 vs Colorado (37.7)

So of these three key categories, OSU two of three against Oregon and Colorado and won all three against UCLA.

This is why March Madness is the greatest sporting event ever. One team gets hot from three and chaos ensues.