Bears will be the National Champion by 2024!


"Elite high school basketball players have more options than ever when it comes to choosing the path that's right for their career, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes.

Driving the news: Six of the nation's best high school basketball programs are forming a new league called the National Interscholastic Basketball Conference (NIBC), which will begin play this fall.

The schools: Oak Hill Academy (Virginia), Montverde Academy (Florida), La Lumiere School (Indiana), Sunrise Christian Academy (Kansas), Wasatch Academy (Utah) and IMG Academy (Florida). Two more teams, still TBA, will join for the inaugural season.
How it works: They'll play a 10-game season, followed by a postseason tournament. Players will remain unpaid and thus retain college eligibility but should earn valuable exposure with so many high-profile matchups.
The backdrop: The NIBC was technically formed last winter for a one-off tournament to allow these teams to compete during the pandemic. It was a success, so the idea evolved, and the league could potentially expand in the coming years.

The state of play: The NIBC is one of a handful of new options for budding teenage basketball stars.

The NBA's G League Ignite pays teens upwards of $500,000 to forego college and spend their pre-NBA-eligibility year in the G League. Five-star recruit Scoot Henderson just became the first high school junior to sign with them after graduating a year early.

Overtime Elite (OTE) is essentially a European-style soccer academy, but for basketball. They're building a 103,000-square-foot facility in Atlanta for ~30 high schoolers who will train, compete and study there. Players will earn six figures, performance bonuses and equity.
The big picture: While G League Ignite and OTE were responses to a landscape that quashed youngsters' ability to earn money or enter the draft at 18, impending NIL legislation could make the traditional college path, highlighted by NIBC, attractive again.

The paychecks attached to Ignite and OTE mean those players start earning money immediately but they also lose their college eligibility.
For college stars, NIL-based compensation could soon surpass six figures, while they also get the benefit of a college experience." Axios

bearister said:

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The big picture: While G League Ignite and OTE were responses to a landscape that quashed youngsters' ability to earn money or enter the draft at 18, impending NIL legislation could make the traditional college path, highlighted by NIBC, attractive again.

The paychecks attached to Ignite and OTE mean those players start earning money immediately but they also lose their college eligibility.
For college stars, NIL-based compensation could soon surpass six figures, while they also get the benefit of a college experience." Axios

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That's pretty shoddy analysis by Axios.

1) Very few college athletes will benefit from NIL in an amount over $100,000/year.

2) For athletes choosing the G League or some quasi-pro alternative for players under the NBA draft age, they can have their pro salaries -AND- NIL compensation, whereas the top college athletes will have only NIL compensation.

NIL rules are a good idea, but they're not some magic wand that will turn college athletes into millionaires or be competitive financially with pro leagues that are offering substantial salaries.

Personally, I hope the end result of all of this is that it weeds out at least some athletes that are only going to college for athletics. Not players like Jalen Brown, who I expect to ultimately get his Cal degree, but those who do the one year of pro forma college because they have to. I want to feel at least some connection with the players, based on the fact that they're students, and I was a student as well. I know that's probably quite naive, but it's how I feel.

It always used to really bug me when Gary Radnich would say that he only watched college basketball to see future NBA players. Of course, what do you expect from a guy who went to UNLV, which is not a great school, except for hospitality management.

Jeff82 said:

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Personally, I hope the end result of all of this is that it weeds out at least some athletes that are only going to college for athletics. Not players like Jalen Brown, who I expect to ultimately get his Cal degree, but those who do the one year of pro forma college because they have to. I want to feel at least some connection with the players, based on the fact that they're students, and I was a student as well. I know that's probably quite naive, but it's how I feel.

It always used to really bug me when Gary Radnich would say that he only watched college basketball to see future NBA players. Of course, what do you expect from a guy who went to UNLV, which is not a great school, except for hospitality management.

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I think that could be a great environment for Cal. Jaylen Brown and Shareef are great examples of guys we could still get in that environment with the right coach.

Hospitality management is a pretty good career if you like living in places people go for vacation.

" Not players like Jalen Brown, who I expect to ultimately get his Cal degree..."

Harvard is closer now. With his brains and resume, admitting him is a no brainer. That is what I would suggest if he asked for MHO.

BearSD said:

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bearister said:

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The big picture: While G League Ignite and OTE were responses to a landscape that quashed youngsters' ability to earn money or enter the draft at 18, impending NIL legislation could make the traditional college path, highlighted by NIBC, attractive again.

The paychecks attached to Ignite and OTE mean those players start earning money immediately but they also lose their college eligibility.
For college stars, NIL-based compensation could soon surpass six figures, while they also get the benefit of a college experience." Axios

---

That's pretty shoddy analysis by Axios.

1) Very few college athletes will benefit from NIL in an amount over $100,000/year.

2) For athletes choosing the G League or some quasi-pro alternative for players under the NBA draft age, they can have their pro salaries -AND- NIL compensation, whereas the top college athletes will have only NIL compensation.

NIL rules are a good idea, but they're not some magic wand that will turn college athletes into millionaires or be competitive financially with pro leagues that are offering substantial salaries.

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people continually underestimate the potential value of NIL

there are MANY people who don't have nearly the platform as a major university and basketball team to build their brand, followers, and sponsors

Jaylen, not Jalen.

HoopDreams said:

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people continually underestimate the potential value of NIL

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In programming nil denotes the absence of a value, as in Ruby.

But potential is more of a physics thing.

Think about this: A Harvard alum offers an elite high school player $100,000 a year to play basketball.

This is a win-win from the athlete's standpoint because if things go wrong in his sport, he has that Harvard degree -- which is worth much more than a Cal degree -- to fall back on.

The Ivies could become athletic powerhouses ...

ClayK said:

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Think about this: A Harvard alum offers an elite high school player $100,000 a year to play basketball.

This is a win-win from the athlete's standpoint because if things go wrong in his sport, he has that Harvard degree -- which is worth much more than a Cal degree -- to fall back on.

The Ivies could become athletic powerhouses ...

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This is the kind of thing that people imagine, but doesn't happen.

Good luck finding a Harvard alum who is worth so much that $100,000/year is nothing to him AND cares so much about Ivy League basketball that he would pay a player that much to go to Harvard.

You could be right ...but you know, it only takes one.

bearister said:

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Bears will be the National Champion by 2024!


"Elite high school basketball players have more options than ever when it comes to choosing the path that's right for their career, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes.

Driving the news: Six of the nation's best high school basketball programs are forming a new league called the National Interscholastic Basketball Conference (NIBC), which will begin play this fall.

The schools: Oak Hill Academy (Virginia), Montverde Academy (Florida), La Lumiere School (Indiana), Sunrise Christian Academy (Kansas), Wasatch Academy (Utah) and IMG Academy (Florida). Two more teams, still TBA, will join for the inaugural season.
How it works: They'll play a 10-game season, followed by a postseason tournament. Players will remain unpaid and thus retain college eligibility but should earn valuable exposure with so many high-profile matchups.
The backdrop: The NIBC was technically formed last winter for a one-off tournament to allow these teams to compete during the pandemic. It was a success, so the idea evolved, and the league could potentially expand in the coming years.

The state of play: The NIBC is one of a handful of new options for budding teenage basketball stars.

The NBA's G League Ignite pays teens upwards of $500,000 to forego college and spend their pre-NBA-eligibility year in the G League. Five-star recruit Scoot Henderson just became the first high school junior to sign with them after graduating a year early.

Overtime Elite (OTE) is essentially a European-style soccer academy, but for basketball. They're building a 103,000-square-foot facility in Atlanta for ~30 high schoolers who will train, compete and study there. Players will earn six figures, performance bonuses and equity.
The big picture: While G League Ignite and OTE were responses to a landscape that quashed youngsters' ability to earn money or enter the draft at 18, impending NIL legislation could make the traditional college path, highlighted by NIBC, attractive again.

The paychecks attached to Ignite and OTE mean those players start earning money immediately but they also lose their college eligibility.
For college stars, NIL-based compensation could soon surpass six figures, while they also get the benefit of a college experience." Axios

---

I will believe the parity when I see it. Lower level players, be it D-II or even D-III will now end up with basketball athletic scholarships, which I don't say as a bad thing, that's the bottom up. From the top down, a Matt Bradley, unlikely to go the new "pro" route, ends up with more attention from high level programs. So, if you want to now make the argument that the "new" elite of college hoop aren't that better than the middle of the road good guys, then there would be parity...I'm skeptical that the difference is that close....
We will see how many guys do go the new pro route; the NIL discussion is narrow...your brand is more likely to get expanded at a Kentucky or Duke anyway, and, as others have said, how many are going to make decent money anyway. Even at a Cal, exposure on the local level in a big market might get you a few opportunities....

mbBear said:

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bearister said:

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Bears will be the National Champion by 2024!


"Elite high school basketball players have more options than ever when it comes to choosing the path that's right for their career, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes.

Driving the news: Six of the nation's best high school basketball programs are forming a new league called the National Interscholastic Basketball Conference (NIBC), which will begin play this fall.

The schools: Oak Hill Academy (Virginia), Montverde Academy (Florida), La Lumiere School (Indiana), Sunrise Christian Academy (Kansas), Wasatch Academy (Utah) and IMG Academy (Florida). Two more teams, still TBA, will join for the inaugural season.
How it works: They'll play a 10-game season, followed by a postseason tournament. Players will remain unpaid and thus retain college eligibility but should earn valuable exposure with so many high-profile matchups.
The backdrop: The NIBC was technically formed last winter for a one-off tournament to allow these teams to compete during the pandemic. It was a success, so the idea evolved, and the league could potentially expand in the coming years.

The state of play: The NIBC is one of a handful of new options for budding teenage basketball stars.

The NBA's G League Ignite pays teens upwards of $500,000 to forego college and spend their pre-NBA-eligibility year in the G League. Five-star recruit Scoot Henderson just became the first high school junior to sign with them after graduating a year early.

Overtime Elite (OTE) is essentially a European-style soccer academy, but for basketball. They're building a 103,000-square-foot facility in Atlanta for ~30 high schoolers who will train, compete and study there. Players will earn six figures, performance bonuses and equity.
The big picture: While G League Ignite and OTE were responses to a landscape that quashed youngsters' ability to earn money or enter the draft at 18, impending NIL legislation could make the traditional college path, highlighted by NIBC, attractive again.

The paychecks attached to Ignite and OTE mean those players start earning money immediately but they also lose their college eligibility.
For college stars, NIL-based compensation could soon surpass six figures, while they also get the benefit of a college experience." Axios

---

I will believe the parity when I see it. Lower level players, be it D-II or even D-III will now end up with basketball athletic scholarships, which I don't say as a bad thing, that's the bottom up. From the top down, a Matt Bradley, unlikely to go the new "pro" route, ends up with more attention from high level programs. So, if you want to now make the argument that the "new" elite of college hoop aren't that better than the middle of the road good guys, then there would be parity...I'm skeptical that the difference is that close....
We will see how many guys do go the new pro route; the NIL discussion is narrow...your brand is more likely to get expanded at a Kentucky or Duke anyway, and, as others have said, how many are going to make decent money anyway. Even at a Cal, exposure on the local level in a big market might get you a few opportunities....

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Marketing? Get real. This ruling just legalizes pay-to-play. "One on-line endorsement, and the cash is yours, son. Play well, and you'll get a big raise next year."

Bobodeluxe said:

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mbBear said:

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bearister said:

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Bears will be the National Champion by 2024!


"Elite high school basketball players have more options than ever when it comes to choosing the path that's right for their career, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes.

Driving the news: Six of the nation's best high school basketball programs are forming a new league called the National Interscholastic Basketball Conference (NIBC), which will begin play this fall.

The schools: Oak Hill Academy (Virginia), Montverde Academy (Florida), La Lumiere School (Indiana), Sunrise Christian Academy (Kansas), Wasatch Academy (Utah) and IMG Academy (Florida). Two more teams, still TBA, will join for the inaugural season.
How it works: They'll play a 10-game season, followed by a postseason tournament. Players will remain unpaid and thus retain college eligibility but should earn valuable exposure with so many high-profile matchups.
The backdrop: The NIBC was technically formed last winter for a one-off tournament to allow these teams to compete during the pandemic. It was a success, so the idea evolved, and the league could potentially expand in the coming years.

The state of play: The NIBC is one of a handful of new options for budding teenage basketball stars.

The NBA's G League Ignite pays teens upwards of $500,000 to forego college and spend their pre-NBA-eligibility year in the G League. Five-star recruit Scoot Henderson just became the first high school junior to sign with them after graduating a year early.

Overtime Elite (OTE) is essentially a European-style soccer academy, but for basketball. They're building a 103,000-square-foot facility in Atlanta for ~30 high schoolers who will train, compete and study there. Players will earn six figures, performance bonuses and equity.
The big picture: While G League Ignite and OTE were responses to a landscape that quashed youngsters' ability to earn money or enter the draft at 18, impending NIL legislation could make the traditional college path, highlighted by NIBC, attractive again.

The paychecks attached to Ignite and OTE mean those players start earning money immediately but they also lose their college eligibility.
For college stars, NIL-based compensation could soon surpass six figures, while they also get the benefit of a college experience." Axios

---

I will believe the parity when I see it. Lower level players, be it D-II or even D-III will now end up with basketball athletic scholarships, which I don't say as a bad thing, that's the bottom up. From the top down, a Matt Bradley, unlikely to go the new "pro" route, ends up with more attention from high level programs. So, if you want to now make the argument that the "new" elite of college hoop aren't that better than the middle of the road good guys, then there would be parity...I'm skeptical that the difference is that close....
We will see how many guys do go the new pro route; the NIL discussion is narrow...your brand is more likely to get expanded at a Kentucky or Duke anyway, and, as others have said, how many are going to make decent money anyway. Even at a Cal, exposure on the local level in a big market might get you a few opportunities....

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Marketing? Get real. This ruling just legalizes pay-to-play. "One on-line endorsement, and the cash is yours, son. Play well, and you'll get a big raise next year."

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I assume you mean at the college level?

Yes. I wasn't clear because I totally ignore the existence of professional sports.

mbBear said:

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bearister said:

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Bears will be the National Champion by 2024!


"Elite high school basketball players have more options than ever when it comes to choosing the path that's right for their career, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes.

Driving the news: Six of the nation's best high school basketball programs are forming a new league called the National Interscholastic Basketball Conference (NIBC), which will begin play this fall.

The schools: Oak Hill Academy (Virginia), Montverde Academy (Florida), La Lumiere School (Indiana), Sunrise Christian Academy (Kansas), Wasatch Academy (Utah) and IMG Academy (Florida). Two more teams, still TBA, will join for the inaugural season.
How it works: They'll play a 10-game season, followed by a postseason tournament. Players will remain unpaid and thus retain college eligibility but should earn valuable exposure with so many high-profile matchups.
The backdrop: The NIBC was technically formed last winter for a one-off tournament to allow these teams to compete during the pandemic. It was a success, so the idea evolved, and the league could potentially expand in the coming years.

The state of play: The NIBC is one of a handful of new options for budding teenage basketball stars.

The NBA's G League Ignite pays teens upwards of $500,000 to forego college and spend their pre-NBA-eligibility year in the G League. Five-star recruit Scoot Henderson just became the first high school junior to sign with them after graduating a year early.

Overtime Elite (OTE) is essentially a European-style soccer academy, but for basketball. They're building a 103,000-square-foot facility in Atlanta for ~30 high schoolers who will train, compete and study there. Players will earn six figures, performance bonuses and equity.
The big picture: While G League Ignite and OTE were responses to a landscape that quashed youngsters' ability to earn money or enter the draft at 18, impending NIL legislation could make the traditional college path, highlighted by NIBC, attractive again.

The paychecks attached to Ignite and OTE mean those players start earning money immediately but they also lose their college eligibility.
For college stars, NIL-based compensation could soon surpass six figures, while they also get the benefit of a college experience." Axios

---

I will believe the parity when I see it. Lower level players, be it D-II or even D-III will now end up with basketball athletic scholarships, which I don't say as a bad thing, that's the bottom up. From the top down, a Matt Bradley, unlikely to go the new "pro" route, ends up with more attention from high level programs. So, if you want to now make the argument that the "new" elite of college hoop aren't that better than the middle of the road good guys, then there would be parity...I'm skeptical that the difference is that close....
We will see how many guys do go the new pro route; the NIL discussion is narrow...your brand is more likely to get expanded at a Kentucky or Duke anyway, and, as others have said, how many are going to make decent money anyway. Even at a Cal, exposure on the local level in a big market might get you a few opportunities....

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Basketball talent is not linearly distributed. In rough numbers: 10% of high school players play in college. 10% of college players play on P5 teams. 10% of P5 players are All Conference players and 10% of those get drafted into the NBA. 10% of NBA players are superstars.

As the elite players go to another route, it will leave a larger pool of players at the lower level (college), and more parity. A school like Cal with a great degree, a large alumni base and a large media market and a large pool of local talent will have advantages over most other schools if we competently take advantage of them. In particular, with the Warriors moving to SF (and in football the Raiders in Vegas and Niners in thr South Bay), Cal can position itself as the East Bay's (and Bay Area in general) home team, the preferred destination for local players to market themselves to the local market. Imagine the money Jason Kidd, Leon Powe or Marshawn Lynch could have made at Cal with the right marketing? And how much money that would bring in to the AD?

calumnus said:

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mbBear said:

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bearister said:

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Bears will be the National Champion by 2024!


"Elite high school basketball players have more options than ever when it comes to choosing the path that's right for their career, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes.

Driving the news: Six of the nation's best high school basketball programs are forming a new league called the National Interscholastic Basketball Conference (NIBC), which will begin play this fall.

The schools: Oak Hill Academy (Virginia), Montverde Academy (Florida), La Lumiere School (Indiana), Sunrise Christian Academy (Kansas), Wasatch Academy (Utah) and IMG Academy (Florida). Two more teams, still TBA, will join for the inaugural season.
How it works: They'll play a 10-game season, followed by a postseason tournament. Players will remain unpaid and thus retain college eligibility but should earn valuable exposure with so many high-profile matchups.
The backdrop: The NIBC was technically formed last winter for a one-off tournament to allow these teams to compete during the pandemic. It was a success, so the idea evolved, and the league could potentially expand in the coming years.

The state of play: The NIBC is one of a handful of new options for budding teenage basketball stars.

The NBA's G League Ignite pays teens upwards of $500,000 to forego college and spend their pre-NBA-eligibility year in the G League. Five-star recruit Scoot Henderson just became the first high school junior to sign with them after graduating a year early.

Overtime Elite (OTE) is essentially a European-style soccer academy, but for basketball. They're building a 103,000-square-foot facility in Atlanta for ~30 high schoolers who will train, compete and study there. Players will earn six figures, performance bonuses and equity.
The big picture: While G League Ignite and OTE were responses to a landscape that quashed youngsters' ability to earn money or enter the draft at 18, impending NIL legislation could make the traditional college path, highlighted by NIBC, attractive again.

The paychecks attached to Ignite and OTE mean those players start earning money immediately but they also lose their college eligibility.
For college stars, NIL-based compensation could soon surpass six figures, while they also get the benefit of a college experience." Axios

---

I will believe the parity when I see it. Lower level players, be it D-II or even D-III will now end up with basketball athletic scholarships, which I don't say as a bad thing, that's the bottom up. From the top down, a Matt Bradley, unlikely to go the new "pro" route, ends up with more attention from high level programs. So, if you want to now make the argument that the "new" elite of college hoop aren't that better than the middle of the road good guys, then there would be parity...I'm skeptical that the difference is that close....
We will see how many guys do go the new pro route; the NIL discussion is narrow...your brand is more likely to get expanded at a Kentucky or Duke anyway, and, as others have said, how many are going to make decent money anyway. Even at a Cal, exposure on the local level in a big market might get you a few opportunities....

---

Basketball talent is not linearly distributed. In rough numbers: 10% of high school players play in college. 10% of college players play on P5 teams. 10% of P5 players are All Conference players and 10% of those get drafted into the NBA. 10% of NBA players are superstars.

As the elite players go to another route, it will leave a larger pool of players at the lower level (college), and more parity. A school like Cal with a great degree, a large alumni base and a large media market and a large pool of local talent will have advantages over most other schools if we competently take advantage of them. In particular, with the Warriors moving to SF (and in football the Raiders in Vegas and Niners in thr South Bay), Cal can position itself as the East Bay's (and Bay Area in general) home team, the preferred destination for local players to market themselves to the local market. Imagine the money Jason Kidd, Leon Powe or Marshawn Lynch could have made at Cal with the right marketing? And how much money that would bring in to the AD?

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I guess the number of "elite" will play a role. I don't see college baseball as a significant display of parity, and the elite(not all) there are pulled out of the mix at a pretty decent percentage.

mbBear said:

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I guess the number of "elite" will play a role. I don't see college baseball as a significant display of parity, and the elite(not all) there are pulled out of the mix at a pretty decent percentage.

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That's a good example. MLB (and its minor league system) take a far higher percentage of the best high school baseball players than the NBA (and the startup leagues for players out of high school) will ever take from the best HS basketball players.

And still there isn't parity in college baseball. 3 of the top 4 seeds in this year's NCAA baseball tournament are SEC teams. The 64-team field includes 9 of the 14 SEC teams, 8 of the 15 ACC teams, and 6 of the 11 Pac-12 teams (CU doesn't have a baseball team). That is *less* parity than the NCAA basketball tournament has.

BearSD said:

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mbBear said:

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I guess the number of "elite" will play a role. I don't see college baseball as a significant display of parity, and the elite(not all) there are pulled out of the mix at a pretty decent percentage.

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That's a good example. MLB (and its minor league system) take a far higher percentage of the best high school baseball players than the NBA (and the startup leagues for players out of high school) will ever take from the best HS basketball players.

And still there isn't parity in college baseball. 3 of the top 4 seeds in this year's NCAA baseball tournament are SEC teams. The 64-team field includes 9 of the 14 SEC teams, 8 of the 15 ACC teams, and 6 of the 11 Pac-12 teams (CU doesn't have a baseball team). That is *less* parity than the NCAA basketball tournament has.

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It is a good example to consider. It may be that so many elite and very good players play minor league that the few elite players that play college ball make their teams FAR better than the rest of college baseball. A few college teams fill their rosters with very good talent and the rest fill their rosters with next level talent.

There may also be a difference between baseball and basketball in that in baseball 9 players get an equal number of at bats and each plays a specific position. There are lots of opportunities for pitchers. If you are in a lineup with 8 other good players your stats improve: more runs and RBIs, more pitches you can hit, even more at bats (because fewer outs) so more hits, HRs, RBIs and runs whereas in basketball only one player can shoot on a possession, only one guy can get the rebound so there is some level of competition even among the starters for stats. There is an advantage to being on a team with some other good players, but not too many other good players. Thus talent tends to spread more in basketball, at least among teams that have a shot at the NCAA Tournament (with more slots than baseball too).

The thing about NIL is that athletic talent can have something to do with it - and the support and the school that you have may have something to do with it - but really it is the personality of the actual individual that will have the most to do with the actual cash these kids get. Selling jerseys - sure - athletic talent. Making $250K because your twitter post goes viral is all about kids doing funny stuff. I know kids who were going to go to college but they are already making 100K on line - and growing. I have no idea how long that lasts but it seems like an opportunity to an 18 year old.

The interesting thing is I think the media is the one who is going to miss out. Imagine if the real money for these guys is that they all get together and start to eliminate the intermediaries - the traditional media - and start to simply put out what they want in their own formats - use their own film, package up their stats, etc... I think the PAC 12 and Cal should get in front of that (as should the Bear Insider!) and start to package up in depth stuff with these kids and share the costs and gains. I have no idea how that would work but I am sure someone is thinking about that. I think that is what the new commissioner was talking about with detailing on he was going to get recruiting going for the Pac 12.

Bear Insider followers are, once again, two steps ahead of the rest of whatever world this is.