Here is my own 2 cents/crystal ball. But I don't have data (see below) to really help unpack.
1) The competitive imbalance between football programs that can leverage NIL$ and those that can't grows SIGNIFICANTLY. It becomes common to see blow outs of 70 to 0 frequently during conference play.
2) [assumed data]. These games become significantly uninterested and ratings are poor. I assume that people do NOT tune to watch these blowouts. It becomes a real problem for everyone but the SEC and is exacerbated because the SEC product is competitive and interesting.
3) The networks without SEC significantly reduce the broadcast rights $. This creates real problems for those programs that CAN compete in the NIL world (I think that is Miami, Clemson, USC, Oregon, Washington, Texas, Norte Dame and OK. There might be a few others we can argue about like OK State or Penn state). They are leaving significant money on the table and their current payouts are declining.
4) These schools look to join the "superconference". This further exacerbates #3 for the remaining programs.
5) Suddenly the paper deficits that plague ADs are real. This leads to the long knives coming out again and no real pushback from the admin.
That may well impact hoops. The hard thing to know is that it is hard to loose THAT much money on basketball given the low scholarship count and the lower costs of health care/insurance/liability compared to football.
