14 Wins is Still on the Table

2,359 Views | 27 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by calumnus
SFCityBear
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I sure never expected this, especially with Kelly going out for the rest of the season, and then the long home loss streak, and Anticevich cooling off. It is possible, but still only an outside chance. What do y'all think?
SFCityBear
sonofabear51
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13 maybe
oskidunker
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If we get Stanford again
Go Bears!
rollonyoubears
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We have a puncher's chance at beating ASU, although the home-court Devils will be favored mostly since they're at home, but against Arizona, there's only about a 10-15% chance we win. Still, 14 wins is not unthinkable, if we draw the right team in the Pac 12 tournament.
calumnus
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rollonyoubears said:

We have a puncher's chance at beating ASU, although the home-court Devils will be favored mostly since they're at home, but against Arizona, there's only about a 10-15% chance we win. Still, 14 wins is not unthinkable, if we draw the right team in the Pac 12 tournament.


ASU is only one above us in the standings but has won 4 of the last 5 (loss to UCLA)). Arizona just lost to Colorado. We will also have one of the play-in games for the first round of the PAC-12 Tournament, so three chances.
oskidunker
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Asu is going to be amped up after losing by 25 in Haas. Not sure how we win this unless they play like Stanford or somebody from Cal goes unconscious. They will be all over Shep
Go Bears!
bearchamp
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The Bears consistently played good basketball this season. Several of Cal's losses could have easily been wins. the Bears have maybe figured out how to win. Most of the teams in the Pac are beatable, and Cal will beat some of them in the next weeks.
KoreAmBear
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bearchamp said:

The Bears consistently played good basketball this season. Several of Cal's losses could have easily been wins. the Bears have maybe figured out how to win. Most of the teams in the Pac are beatable, and Cal will beat some of them in the next weeks.
We've raised the floor since Wyking. However, our record is who we are. It's time for Dennis Gates, Shantay Legans or Todd Golden.
bearchamp
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Just wondering. The team has progressed. The players have shown great progress individually. Cal beats the Junior University handily. Multiple commentators have stated what a great job Fox has done this year. Is there any scenario where Fox is appreciated?
stu
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We've also had our share of close wins. On average in conference games we've been outscored by 4.4 points so I think it's reasonable to assume we could win any given game. But I think the AZ road trip will be much more difficult than the OR road trip which got our hopes up.
RedlessWardrobe
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bearchamp said:

Just wondering. The team has progressed. The players have shown great progress individually. Cal beats the Junior University handily. Multiple commentators have stated what a great job Fox has done this year. Is there any scenario where Fox is appreciated?
Define appreciated.
If appreciated means keeping him for another year I would guess the answer is probably yes. Other than that, the question needs to be more specific.
bearchamp
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My " appreciated" statement was in response to the fire Fox implication of a previous writer. As near as I can tell, the only objection to Fox is the presumption by the arm-chair quarterbacks that he cannot recruit. In light of the recent history of the program, his recruitment of Celestine, Shepard and Alajiki seems pretty decent to me. We don't know if Cal will pick up another Shepard level grad transfer, but the track record is encouraging. Fox is not going to bring in "one and doners" and I, for one, don't think such players (generally) are who should be enrolling at Cal. Cal is making real progress under Fox, so why all the negative vibe?
stu
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bearchamp said:

Just wondering. The team has progressed. The players have shown great progress individually. Cal beats the Junior University handily. Multiple commentators have stated what a great job Fox has done this year. Is there any scenario where Fox is appreciated?
I appreciate Fox's coaching. He seems to be getting the most out of his players and out of the team.

However much I enjoy watching us beat Stanford I'm not going to get too excited about it when I remember little-appreciated Wyking Jones coached two wins over Stanford.

I'm not appreciating Fox's recruiting. Our biggest contributors have been Jones recruits and a one-season grad transfer. Without a few insane games from Shepherd we would not have beaten Oregon (for sure), Oregon State (at home, probably), and Stanford (probably). I'll be surprised if a team of all Fox recruits does better than this season's record.
oskidunker
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SFCityBear said:

I sure never expected this, especially with Kelly going out for the rest of the season, and then the long home loss streak, and Anticevich cooling off. It is possible, but still only an outside chance. What do y'all think?
18-17 Still possible before ncaa tournament. 24-17 after.
Go Bears!
Civil Bear
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bearchamp said:

My " appreciated" statement was in response to the fire Fox implication of a previous writer. As near as I can tell, the only objection to Fox is the presumption by the arm-chair quarterbacks that he cannot recruit. In light of the recent history of the program, his recruitment of Celestine, Shepard and Alajiki seems pretty decent to me. We don't know if Cal will pick up another Shepard level grad transfer, but the track record is encouraging. Fox is not going to bring in "one and doners" and I, for one, don't think such players (generally) are who should be enrolling at Cal. Cal is making real progress under Fox, so why all the negative vibe?
I think the vast majority of Fox's detractors figured he could get Cal off the Conference floor. His lengthy track record has shown he can do that much, and occasionally with enough talent maybe even get to the tourney once in a while. The problem is he will likely be going into year 4 with even less talent and is still mentioning the program is going through a rebuild.
stu
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It's no longer just figure - Fox has proved he can get us off the conference floor. My concern is getting above the bottom third.
RedlessWardrobe
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At this point its obvious where almost everybody stands on Mark Fox.
While we may detract from time to time on his coaching ability, that is not the issue. Recruiting is.
My guess is he's still here next year. And next year's team results and performance of any incoming recruits or transfers will determine if he stays here after that. I think that's what this all comes down to.
KoreAmBear
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RedlessWardrobe said:

At this point its obvious where almost everybody stands on Mark Fox.
While we may detract from time to time on his coaching ability, that is not the issue. Recruiting is.
My guess is he's still here next year. And next year's team results and performance of any incoming recruits or transfers will determine if he stays here after that. I think that's what this all comes down to.
My guess is that for Fox to publicly state that we are still in a "rebuild" Knowlton is giving him a couple more years to do that. Which would be a huge mistake as Dennis Gates, Shantay Legans and/or Todd Golden may all be taken off the board after this season.
Big C
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bearchamp said:

Just wondering. The team has progressed. The players have shown great progress individually. Cal beats the Junior University handily. Multiple commentators have stated what a great job Fox has done this year. Is there any scenario where Fox is appreciated?

Honestly, I feel like Fox is being appreciated commensurate with his record and, including recruiting, how we project for next season and beyond.

For example, if we had beaten one of the Washingtons at home a couple of weeks ago, managed even one more win during the middle of that 10 game losing streak and had a top guard signed for next season, I think Fox would be getting a lot of appreciation right now. (That despite still being in the second division of the conference.) Even as we are right now, every time we win a game people come on here and say he's a pretty good coach.
smh
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are the CBI or NIT post-season tournaments a possibility, even after quick elimination from the PacT?
signed, clueless bear
stu
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KoreAmBear said:

My guess is that for Fox to publicly state that we are still in a "rebuild" Knowlton is giving him a couple more years to do that. Which would be a huge mistake as Dennis Gates, Shantay Legans and/or Todd Golden may all be taken off the board after this season.
No problem, by the time Knowlton makes a move Shepherd and Kelly might be established coaches.
PtownBear1
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Big C said:

bearchamp said:

Just wondering. The team has progressed. The players have shown great progress individually. Cal beats the Junior University handily. Multiple commentators have stated what a great job Fox has done this year. Is there any scenario where Fox is appreciated?

Honestly, I feel like Fox is being appreciated commensurate with his record and, including recruiting, how we project for next season and beyond.

For example, if we had beaten one of the Washingtons at home a couple of weeks ago, managed even one more win during the middle of that 10 game losing streak and had a top guard signed for next season, I think Fox would be getting a lot of appreciation right now. (That despite still being in the second division of the conference.) Even as we are right now, every time we win a game people come on here and say he's a pretty good coach.
I feel like Fox is being highly overappreciated relative to both his record thus far (I bet we have the worst record among P6 schools over the last 3 seasons) and the ABYSMAL projection for next season and beyond. But then again, there are probably at best a few dozen people still interested enough to post on the Cal basketball boards, so it makes sense that a decent population of them are pro Fox.

It would be nice to have the capability to be so easily pleased though. I'm honestly envious of people that can just enjoy a single win or two when the program is in such a dire shape.
stu
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For a while I was so disillusioned I couldn't enjoy even a win or a well-played loss. I'm getting over that and now watch most of the games. But I'm not looking forward to several more years mired at or near the bottom of the conference.
KoreAmBear
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stu said:

For a while I was so disillusioned I couldn't enjoy even a win or a well-played loss. I'm getting over that and now watch most of the games. But I'm not looking forward to several more years mired at or near the bottom of the conference.
I think for Fox mission accomplished. But like Moses he can't go to the Promised Land.
socaltownie
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The issue is that he can not recruit in the top 1/2 of the conference and yet Monty, Bozeman, Lou and Martin showed that is possible.

Indeed, I am actually willing to give Justin Wilcox a pretty big pass. Tedford's success came at a time of unprecedented decline in a number of decent traditional PAC 12 programs, before Utah adjusted and prior to the ascendency of Oregon. It is HARD to recruit in the upper 1/2 of the Pac 12 at cal in football.

But we have shown it CAN be done in Hoops.

I do not question his teaching and coaching ability. He was, after all, selected for the National BB Team by coach K. It is that he can't sell/recruit.
Take care of your Chicken
BeachedBear
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bearchamp said:

My " appreciated" statement was in response to the fire Fox implication of a previous writer. As near as I can tell, the only objection to Fox is the presumption by the arm-chair quarterbacks that he cannot recruit. In light of the recent history of the program, his recruitment of Celestine, Shepard and Alajiki seems pretty decent to me. We don't know if Cal will pick up another Shepard level grad transfer, but the track record is encouraging. Fox is not going to bring in "one and doners" and I, for one, don't think such players (generally) are who should be enrolling at Cal. Cal is making real progress under Fox, so why all the negative vibe?
I actually feel that most of the negatrolls have abandoned the program. Mostly respectful criticism these days. Although recruiting is the BIGGEST objection to Fox, it is not the only one. As one of the twelve or so remaining armchair PGs that still care about the program, the following seem to be the other objections/issues in reverse order of importance:

  • Communications/PR is the worst I have ever experienced since Kuchen was coaching. No positive outreach to Students, Alumni or Community that has ever been articulated. IMHO, this is a pretty minor issue as long as there is enough success that the constituents above don't abandon the program. However, they have . . . so . . . this is no longer as minor.
  • As far as I can recall, there has been little or no change to the staff since he arrived. I'm all for loyalty if it works, but it hasn't - so this is a clear indication that Fox lacks self awareness and the ability to change. Hiring a recruiting ace or two is very common and effective. Why hasn't it happened?
  • Rate of change of the program is simply unacceptable. While the individual improvements and wins are heartwarming in light of such a dismal run for almost 6 years - it simply doesn't cut it. Every program in the P12 and USF and St Mary's are progressing faster than Cal. We are falling behind every year. If the coach is claiming that we are in a rebuild at year 3, with an experienced roster, and we are barely out of the cellar - then that simply won't cut it.

I really didn't want to make such a critical post after the furd win, because it was great. But I don't think it washes away all the serious issues that this program has. Great win - there have been a few. Great players to support - they are much more fun to watch than under Wyking who had lost the players. But it is simply not enough to pass up better options because Lars is playing well and we beat Stanford again.

Fox is a much better coach than I will ever be. Doesn't mean he's perfect and we can't be respectfully critical of his performance (a bit of which I pay for in taxes, donations and attandance).
Civil Bear
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smh said:

are the CBI or NIT post-season tournaments a possibility, even after quick elimination from the PacT?
signed, clueless bear
The Bears are 5 games under .500. No.
calumnus
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BeachedBear said:

bearchamp said:

My " appreciated" statement was in response to the fire Fox implication of a previous writer. As near as I can tell, the only objection to Fox is the presumption by the arm-chair quarterbacks that he cannot recruit. In light of the recent history of the program, his recruitment of Celestine, Shepard and Alajiki seems pretty decent to me. We don't know if Cal will pick up another Shepard level grad transfer, but the track record is encouraging. Fox is not going to bring in "one and doners" and I, for one, don't think such players (generally) are who should be enrolling at Cal. Cal is making real progress under Fox, so why all the negative vibe?
I actually feel that most of the negatrolls have abandoned the program. Mostly respectful criticism these days. Although recruiting is the BIGGEST objection to Fox, it is not the only one. As one of the twelve or so remaining armchair PGs that still care about the program, the following seem to be the other objections/issues in reverse order of importance:

  • Communications/PR is the worst I have ever experienced since Kuchen was coaching. No positive outreach to Students, Alumni or Community that has ever been articulated. IMHO, this is a pretty minor issue as long as there is enough success that the constituents above don't abandon the program. However, they have . . . so . . . this is no longer as minor.
  • As far as I can recall, there has been little or no change to the staff since he arrived. I'm all for loyalty if it works, but it hasn't - so this is a clear indication that Fox lacks self awareness and the ability to change. Hiring a recruiting ace or two is very common and effective. Why hasn't it happened?
  • Rate of change of the program is simply unacceptable. While the individual improvements and wins are heartwarming in light of such a dismal run for almost 6 years - it simply doesn't cut it. Every program in the P12 and USF and St Mary's are progressing faster than Cal. We are falling behind every year. If the coach is claiming that we are in a rebuild at year 3, with an experienced roster, and we are barely out of the cellar - then that simply won't cut it.

I really didn't want to make such a critical post after the furd win, because it was great. But I don't think it washes away all the serious issues that this program has. Great win - there have been a few. Great players to support - they are much more fun to watch than under Wyking who had lost the players. But it is simply not enough to pass up better options because Lars is playing well and we beat Stanford again.

Fox is a much better coach than I will ever be. Doesn't mean he's perfect and we can't be respectfully critical of his performance (a bit of which I pay for in taxes, donations and attandance).


Agree, except Wyking didn't lose the players, he finished the season with three wins including knocking off #25 UW and beating Stanford at Maples.

The lineup: was young: Vanover, Sueing, Bradley, McNeil, Austin with Anticevich, Kelly and Harris-Dyson off the bench was 3 freshman, 4 sophomores and 1 junior. There was enormous improvement over the course of the season and the future with those players looked promising.

Those 3 PAC-12 wins in year 2 were too little to late. But Fox is at 5 PAC-12 wins this season in year 3 with a veteran squad. Featuring 4 seniors (3 super seniors) , 4 juniors, with 1 sophomore and 1 freshman in the top 10 in minutes.
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