next season's lineup

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stu
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3:51p, 3/1/22
A new thread to alleviate concerns about spoiling our huge win over Stanford:

I'm assuming Kelly will not return but the rest of our scholarship players will. Also that everyone is healthy.

My guess at the starting lineup:
PG - Brown (SR)
SG - Celestine (JR)
SF - Alajiki (SO)
PF - Kuany (SR)
C - Thiemann (SR)

And the rest of the rotation:
PG - Hyder (SR)
SG - Roberson (SO)
SF - Bowser (JR) or Klonaras (SR)
PF - Anyanwu (SO) or Newell (FR)
C - Thorpe (SR) or Okafor (FR)

I think those starters should be solid, with outside shooting my primary concern. As one would expect there's not much experience on the bench, how those players develop will be a big factor.
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DWM81
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3:56p, 3/1/22
Need at least 1 grad transfer who can shoot/score...
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calumnus
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In reply to stu • 4:25p, 3/1/22
stu said:
A new thread to alleviate concerns about spoiling our huge win over Stanford:

I'm assuming Kelly will not return but the rest of our scholarship players will. Also that everyone is healthy.

My guess at the starting lineup:
PG - Brown (SR)
SG - Celestine (JR)
SF - Alajiki (SO)
PF - Kuany (SR)
C - Thiemann (SR)

And the rest of the rotation:
PG - Hyder (SR)
SG - Roberson (SO)
SF - Bowser (JR) or Klonaras (SR)
PF - Anyanwu (SO) or Newell (FR)
C - Thorpe (SR) or Okafor (FR)

I think those starters should be solid, with outside shooting my primary concern. As one would expect there's not much experience on the bench, how those players develop will be a big factor.


I think your starters make sense. I doubt there will be much disagreement,

The reserves are where there are a lot of questions.

Newell is listed as 6'6" 180 and Okafor as 6'9" 210. I would say Newell is a SF and Okafor a PF (at least as a freshman). That is how they are listed. Though, if Oakafor is a revelation I could see getting him the game as a third forward (ie center) as you have listed. Roberson getting the major minutes as the only backup at SG is another question. Fox has favored Hyder in that role in the past, and that is with Shepherd, Foreman, Betley, Celestine and Roberson as SG options. My guess is Hyder plays a lot at the 2, in addition to backing up Brown at PG (assuming the roster is as above).
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stu
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In reply to calumnus • 4:32p, 3/1/22
I also think Hyder will play more than Roberson but I chose not to list anyone at multiple positions.

If Newell turns out to be good then he could be the first SF off the bench.

I put Okafor and Thorpe at C because we have no other option there, except maybe Kuany if we're trying to run.
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sluggo
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In reply to calumnus • 4:36p, 3/1/22
calumnus said:
stu said:
A new thread to alleviate concerns about spoiling our huge win over Stanford:

I'm assuming Kelly will not return but the rest of our scholarship players will. Also that everyone is healthy.

My guess at the starting lineup:
PG - Brown (SR)
SG - Celestine (JR)
SF - Alajiki (SO)
PF - Kuany (SR)
C - Thiemann (SR)

And the rest of the rotation:
PG - Hyder (SR)
SG - Roberson (SO)
SF - Bowser (JR) or Klonaras (SR)
PF - Anyanwu (SO) or Newell (FR)
C - Thorpe (SR) or Okafor (FR)

I think those starters should be solid, with outside shooting my primary concern. As one would expect there's not much experience on the bench, how those players develop will be a big factor.


I think your starters make sense. I doubt there will be much disagreement,

The reserves are where there are a lot of questions.

Newell is listed as 6'6" 180 and Okafor as 6'9" 210. I would say Newell is a SF and Okafor a PF (at least as a freshman). That is how they are listed. Though, if Oakafor is a revelation I could see getting him the game as a third forward (ie center) as you have listed. Roberson getting the major minutes as the only backup at SG is another question. Fox has favored Hyder in that role in the past, and that is with Shepherd, Foreman, Betley, Celestine and Roberson as SG options. My guess is Hyder plays a lot at the 2, in addition to backing up Brown at PG (assuming the roster is as above).
Having seen them play and also noting that they have different measurements on different sites I think Newell is 6'7'' or 6'8 and maybe 215 and Okafor is at least 6'9'' and by next year probably 225. Newell mostly plays inside now, but I think the hope is that he can play on the perimeter. Okafor jumps well and is probably a 5, as he does provide some rim protection, but he is not strong in the lower body like Lars T. and Kelly and Thorpe.
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sluggo
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5:20p, 3/1/22
It would be almost correct to say the starters are pac12 level players and the reserves are not. And the chance is very low that the team will finish in a place in the pac12 that does not require two numbers.

I do think that there will be one or two players from the portal in spring. And Fox will end up 8th or worse in the conference he is coaching in for the sixth year in a row.
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BC Calfan
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5:53p, 3/1/22
Points per game this season:
PG - Brown 5.0
SG - Celestine 7.3
SF - Alajiki 3.1
PF - Kuany 4.8
C - Thiemann 4.5

If we think we're low-scoring now wait til next year.
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KoreAmBear
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In reply to BC Calfan • 7:01p, 3/1/22
BC Calfan said:
Points per game this season:
PG - Brown 5.0
SG - Celestine 7.3
SF - Alajiki 3.1
PF - Kuany 4.8
C - Thiemann 4.5

If we think we're low-scoring now wait til next year.
omg it is hitting me as I see this. Will we see a 20 point game?
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HoopDreams
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7:09p, 3/1/22
we need at least one impact transfer

imagine this year's team without Shep
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stu
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In reply to BC Calfan • 8:02p, 3/1/22
BC Calfan said:
Points per game this season:
PG - Brown 5.0
SG - Celestine 7.3
SF - Alajiki 3.1
PF - Kuany 4.8
C - Thiemann 4.5

If we think we're low-scoring now wait til next year.
These players will be taking more shots next season.

Their current conference shooting percentages aren't bad:
.522 Thiemann
.514 Alajiki
.415 Kuany
.400 Celestine
.384 Brown

But that could change without Shepherd shredding defenses and if Alajiki's .619 on threes doesn't hold up as he takes more of them.
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calumnus
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In reply to BC Calfan • 9:27p, 3/1/22
BC Calfan said:
Points per game this season:
PG - Brown 5.0
SG - Celestine 7.3
SF - Alajiki 3.1
PF - Kuany 4.8
C - Thiemann 4.5

If we think we're low-scoring now wait til next year.


A lot of these guys have not played much. Based on their current scoring per 40 min and assuming 30 min for starters and 10 min for reserves:

Lars 10.1
Celestine 8.8
Kuany 8.5
Alajiki 7.7
Brown 5.6

Hyder 1.7
Roberson 1.1
Bowser 1.4
Anywanu 1.9
Thorpe 2.3

Total 49 pts per game

Of course, they will also be taking more shots per minute than they do now, so guys like Celestine or Alajiki should score more. Scary if Lars is our high scorer (he would be based on current points per minute played).

I definitely think that if this is the roster, our scoring drops even lower than it was this year. We are already one of the lowest scoring teams in the country, but can and will likely go lower. We are at #314 with 63.9 ppg, my guess is we could easily drop to 60 ppg which would be #352 (out of 358). Of course, the 53 points scored in the win over Stanford may be the model. Average that this year and we would be #357 out of 358 in scoring.
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CalLifer
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In reply to calumnus • 9:48p, 3/1/22
calumnus said:
BC Calfan said:
Points per game this season:
PG - Brown 5.0
SG - Celestine 7.3
SF - Alajiki 3.1
PF - Kuany 4.8
C - Thiemann 4.5

If we think we're low-scoring now wait til next year.


A lot of these guys have not played much. Based on their current scoring per 40 min and assuming 30 min for starters and 10 min for reserves:

Lars 10.1
Celestine 8.8
Kuany 8.5
Alajiki 7.7
Brown 5.6

Hyder 1.7
Roberson 1.1
Bowser 1.4
Anywanu 1.9
Thorpe 2.3

Total 49 pts per game

Of course, they will also be taking more shots per minute than they do now, so guys like Celestine or Alajiki should score more. Scary if Lars is our high scorer (he would be based on current points per minute played).

I definitely think that if this is the roster, our scoring drops even lower than it was this year. We are already one of the lowest scoring teams in the country, but can and will likely go lower. We are at #314 with 63.9 ppg, my guess is we could easily drop to 60 ppg which would be #352 (out of 358). Of course, the 53 points scored in the win over Stanford may be the model. Average that this year and we would be #357 out of 358 in scoring.
To put a positive spin on it, we would be #2 in the nation at avoiding points. How rare is it that we can say we are second best in the country at something in hoops?
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Big C
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In reply to stu • 10:12p, 3/1/22
stu said:
A new thread to alleviate concerns about spoiling our huge win over Stanford:

I'm assuming Kelly will not return but the rest of our scholarship players will. Also that everyone is healthy.

My guess at the starting lineup:
PG - Brown (SR)
SG - Celestine (JR)
SF - Alajiki (SO)
PF - Kuany (SR)
C - Thiemann (SR)

And the rest of the rotation:
PG - Hyder (SR)
SG - Roberson (SO)
SF - Bowser (JR) or Klonaras (SR)
PF - Anyanwu (SO) or Newell (FR)
C - Thorpe (SR) or Okafor (FR)

I think those starters should be solid, with outside shooting my primary concern. As one would expect there's not much experience on the bench, how those players develop will be a big factor.

Looks like a bunch of players who will be about as good as this year's team. But . . .

+ will 1-2 players depart and be replaced by better talent?

+ some wild cards on your 2nd team just might step up and surprise


I really feel like that roster is only a Stephen Curry and a Klay Thompson (college versions) away from being pretty good! Okay, maybe a Draymond Green, too.
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calumnus
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In reply to Big C • 11:16p, 3/1/22
Big C said:
stu said:
A new thread to alleviate concerns about spoiling our huge win over Stanford:

I'm assuming Kelly will not return but the rest of our scholarship players will. Also that everyone is healthy.

My guess at the starting lineup:
PG - Brown (SR)
SG - Celestine (JR)
SF - Alajiki (SO)
PF - Kuany (SR)
C - Thiemann (SR)

And the rest of the rotation:
PG - Hyder (SR)
SG - Roberson (SO)
SF - Bowser (JR) or Klonaras (SR)
PF - Anyanwu (SO) or Newell (FR)
C - Thorpe (SR) or Okafor (FR)

I think those starters should be solid, with outside shooting my primary concern. As one would expect there's not much experience on the bench, how those players develop will be a big factor.

Looks like a bunch of players who will be about as good as this year's team. But . . .

+ will 1-2 players depart and be replaced by better talent?

+ some wild cards on your 2nd team just might step up and surprise


I really feel like that roster is only a Stephen Curry and a Klay Thompson (college versions) away from being pretty good! Okay, maybe a Draymond Green, too.


Next year is a long way away. However, assuming no changes to the roster do feel like the core of Lars, Celestine and Alajiki with Kuany, or one of the other PFs can roughly equal this year's team and stay out of the cellar as long as OSU and Utah have another brutal season. The concerns are: 1) PG/Guard depth. We need Brown and Celestine to stay healthy and 2) our offense has relied on having a guy who can create his own shot, Bradley and then Shepherd, Maybe Celestine can fill that role next year? Maybe we go without anyone?
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drizzlybear
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In reply to HoopDreams • 12:47a, 3/2/22
HoopDreams said:
we need at least one impact transfer

imagine this year's team without Shep

I'm worried that landing a Shepherd-caliber scorer is not a repeatable skill for Fox. And even if he does, it still leaves you with basically this year's team again. I think Fox needs Kelly to return AND to land a dynamic scorer. Both seem unlikely right now.
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Chapman_is_Gone
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12:50a, 3/2/22

Y'all have bags of concrete to work with yet somehow you hope for a marble floor. And more bags of concrete make up the next shipment, too.

One of our team's leaders has a soft pear-shaped body, usually an indicator of heart disease risk, not athletic ability.

Best of luck competing with UCLA and U of A.

Please wake me up when Fox is gone.
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calumnus
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In reply to Big C • 4:51a, 3/2/22
Big C said:
stu said:
A new thread to alleviate concerns about spoiling our huge win over Stanford:

I'm assuming Kelly will not return but the rest of our scholarship players will. Also that everyone is healthy.

My guess at the starting lineup:
PG - Brown (SR)
SG - Celestine (JR)
SF - Alajiki (SO)
PF - Kuany (SR)
C - Thiemann (SR)

And the rest of the rotation:
PG - Hyder (SR)
SG - Roberson (SO)
SF - Bowser (JR) or Klonaras (SR)
PF - Anyanwu (SO) or Newell (FR)
C - Thorpe (SR) or Okafor (FR)

I think those starters should be solid, with outside shooting my primary concern. As one would expect there's not much experience on the bench, how those players develop will be a big factor.

Looks like a bunch of players who will be about as good as this year's team. But . . .

+ will 1-2 players depart and be replaced by better talent?

+ some wild cards on your 2nd team just might step up and surprise


I really feel like that roster is only a Stephen Curry and a Klay Thompson (college versions) away from being pretty good! Okay, maybe a Draymond Green, too.


The other things of note:
:1. next year will be the second in a row that Cal will have no players who were in the Top 100 coming out of high school, which has never happened in at least the last 45 years.
2. If that is our starting five it will be the first in Cal history to have no American born players. Probably a first in the PAC-12. Is anyone aware of any school in the country where that was true previously?
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drizzlybear
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In reply to Chapman_is_Gone • 7:37a, 3/2/22
Chapman_is_Gone said:

Y'all have bags of concrete to work with yet somehow you hope for a marble floor. And more bags of concrete make up the next shipment, too.

One of our team's leaders has a soft pear-shaped body, usually an indicator of heart disease risk, not athletic ability.

Best of luck competing with UCLA and U of A.

Please wake me up when Fox is gone.

Seems like you're staying awake on your own.
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stu
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In reply to calumnus • 7:54a, 3/2/22
calumnus said:
The other things of note:
:1. next year will be the second in a row that Cal will have no players who were in the Top 100 coming out of high school, which has never happened in at least the last 45 years.
2. If that is our starting five it will be the first in Cal history to have no American born players. Probably a first in the PAC-12. Is anyone aware of any school in the country where that was true previously?
This season the top 6 in minutes played on the Washington State women's team are from New Zealand, New Zealand, Estonia, Australia, Rwanda, and Canada. They have 4 other players from Canada, Australia, Israel, and Turkey. Oh, and 3 Americans.

I doubt any of those overseas players, except the 2 Canadians from BC, had ever heard of Pullman before being recruited. Same could be true of the 2 Americans from Nebraska and Ohio.

However it happened it seems to be working - ESPN Bracketology has them in the Tournament.
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Alkiadt
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In reply to calumnus • 8:02a, 3/2/22
calumnus said:
Big C said:
stu said:
A new thread to alleviate concerns about spoiling our huge win over Stanford:

I'm assuming Kelly will not return but the rest of our scholarship players will. Also that everyone is healthy.

My guess at the starting lineup:
PG - Brown (SR)
SG - Celestine (JR)
SF - Alajiki (SO)
PF - Kuany (SR)
C - Thiemann (SR)

And the rest of the rotation:
PG - Hyder (SR)
SG - Roberson (SO)
SF - Bowser (JR) or Klonaras (SR)
PF - Anyanwu (SO) or Newell (FR)
C - Thorpe (SR) or Okafor (FR)

I think those starters should be solid, with outside shooting my primary concern. As one would expect there's not much experience on the bench, how those players develop will be a big factor.

Looks like a bunch of players who will be about as good as this year's team. But . . .

+ will 1-2 players depart and be replaced by better talent?

+ some wild cards on your 2nd team just might step up and surprise


I really feel like that roster is only a Stephen Curry and a Klay Thompson (college versions) away from being pretty good! Okay, maybe a Draymond Green, too.


The other things of note:
:1. next year will be the second in a row that Cal will have no players who were in the Top 100 coming out of high school, which has never happened in at least the last 45 years.
2. If that is our starting five it will be the first in Cal history to have no American born players. Probably a first in the PAC-12. Is anyone aware of any school in the country where that was true previously?
You are assuming no roster turnover. I pretty much expect a transfer or two in the off season. Playing time at the guard position is there, and I am confident that we will see a scorer come in.

Also of note, I expect even more foreign players at Cal, for two reasons. First, they are not eligible for any NIL income as they are not citizens. So the NIL business is not a factor with them. Secondly, the Cal education is valued overseas, so Cal will always be a solid academic draw for many foreign players. Maybe not the elite ones, but the smart ones anyway.
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HKBear97!
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In reply to stu • 8:10a, 3/2/22
stu said:
A new thread to alleviate concerns about spoiling our huge win over Stanford:

I'm assuming Kelly will not return but the rest of our scholarship players will. Also that everyone is healthy.

My guess at the starting lineup:
PG - Brown (SR)
SG - Celestine (JR)
SF - Alajiki (SO)
PF - Kuany (SR)
C - Thiemann (SR)

And the rest of the rotation:
PG - Hyder (SR)
SG - Roberson (SO)
SF - Bowser (JR) or Klonaras (SR)
PF - Anyanwu (SO) or Newell (FR)
C - Thorpe (SR) or Okafor (FR)

I think those starters should be solid, with outside shooting my primary concern. As one would expect there's not much experience on the bench, how those players develop will be a big factor.


This is great - thanks for putting this together. The other topic that sticks out to me is the number of scholarship seniors. Fox will have a significant number of spots to hand out for the next class. If he doesn't have a good season and/or doesn't have an extension in hand, how will he manage to recruit while on a very hot seat/one year deal? Not a great situation to be in.
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stu
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In reply to HKBear97! • 8:44a, 3/2/22
Good point. We could have as many as 5 open scholarships for the 2023-24 season. If there's going to be a change in direction that could be a part of it.
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RedlessWardrobe
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In reply to Chapman_is_Gone • 9:01a, 3/2/22
Chapman_is_Gone said:

Y'all have bags of concrete to work with yet somehow you hope for a marble floor. And more bags of concrete make up the next shipment, too.

One of our team's leaders has a soft pear-shaped body, usually an indicator of heart disease risk, not athletic ability.

Best of luck competing with UCLA and U of A.

Please wake me up when Fox is gone.
Make you a deal. We will wake you up when Fox is gone, if you promise to stay asleep and off this board until he is.
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RedlessWardrobe
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In reply to stu • 9:05a, 3/2/22
stu said:
A new thread to alleviate concerns about spoiling our huge win over Stanford:

I'm assuming Kelly will not return but the rest of our scholarship players will. Also that everyone is healthy.

My guess at the starting lineup:
PG - Brown (SR)
SG - Celestine (JR)
SF - Alajiki (SO)
PF - Kuany (SR)
C - Thiemann (SR)

And the rest of the rotation:
PG - Hyder (SR)
SG - Roberson (SO)
SF - Bowser (JR) or Klonaras (SR)
PF - Anyanwu (SO) or Newell (FR)
C - Thorpe (SR) or Okafor (FR)

I think those starters should be solid, with outside shooting my primary concern. As one would expect there's not much experience on the bench, how those players develop will be a big factor.
My initial reaction to the starting five is fairly positive. May win some games. But as noted elsewhere here, Celestine, Alajiki, and Kuany can all shoot from the arc, but none of them can really do it off the dribble. We desparately need to find a transfer that has a similar game to Shepherd, even if he is only 80% as effective as Jordan. Really need a transfer spot to open up and fill it with an offensively skilled guard.
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socaliganbear
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9:45a, 3/2/22
Seems like a solid roster set up for a 10th or 11th place finish.
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BeachedBear
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10:54a, 3/2/22
I think the new coach will bring along 2 starters and a backup PG. Three current roster spots will also transfer out with the coaching change. After a mediocre start next season, Cal will surprise in the P12, finish in the top half and make a run to the P12 tourney final - cementing their first post-season berth in 8 years.
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sluggo
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In reply to calumnus • 5:19p, 3/2/22
calumnus said:
Big C said:
stu said:
A new thread to alleviate concerns about spoiling our huge win over Stanford:

I'm assuming Kelly will not return but the rest of our scholarship players will. Also that everyone is healthy.

My guess at the starting lineup:
PG - Brown (SR)
SG - Celestine (JR)
SF - Alajiki (SO)
PF - Kuany (SR)
C - Thiemann (SR)

And the rest of the rotation:
PG - Hyder (SR)
SG - Roberson (SO)
SF - Bowser (JR) or Klonaras (SR)
PF - Anyanwu (SO) or Newell (FR)
C - Thorpe (SR) or Okafor (FR)

I think those starters should be solid, with outside shooting my primary concern. As one would expect there's not much experience on the bench, how those players develop will be a big factor.

Looks like a bunch of players who will be about as good as this year's team. But . . .

+ will 1-2 players depart and be replaced by better talent?

+ some wild cards on your 2nd team just might step up and surprise


I really feel like that roster is only a Stephen Curry and a Klay Thompson (college versions) away from being pretty good! Okay, maybe a Draymond Green, too.


Next year is a long way away. However, assuming no changes to the roster do feel like the core of Lars, Celestine and Alajiki with Kuany, or one of the other PFs can roughly equal this year's team and stay out of the cellar as long as OSU and Utah have another brutal season. The concerns are: 1) PG/Guard depth. We need Brown and Celestine to stay healthy and 2) our offense has relied on having a guy who can create his own shot, Bradley and then Shepherd, Maybe Celestine can fill that role next year? Maybe we go without anyone?
I think the second point is key. Cal wants to play slow and does not have much offensive precision, so there are a lot of late clock situations. The best Fox team had Bradley and Austin, then last year there was Bradley, and this year there is Shepherd. Next year there is no one. Celestine and Brown would be candidates, and maybe Celestine could get there, but he is not there now. Further, this year Shepherd, Kelly and Grant A. were the first three options, opening up possibilities for those who will remain. While the remaining players will likely improve, none are obvious first or second options outside of a bottom of a conference team.
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calumnus
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In reply to socaliganbear • 7:59p, 3/2/22
socaliganbear said:
Seems like a solid roster set up for a 10th or 11th place finish.


As long as OSU is this year's OSU and not last year's. Utah might be bad again too: 10th is probably achievable. The distance to the middle ASU, Stanford, UW, WSU, Colorado may grow.
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Chapman_is_Gone
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In reply to RedlessWardrobe • 7:14p, 3/3/22
RedlessWardrobe said:
Chapman_is_Gone said:

Y'all have bags of concrete to work with yet somehow you hope for a marble floor. And more bags of concrete make up the next shipment, too.

One of our team's leaders has a soft pear-shaped body, usually an indicator of heart disease risk, not athletic ability.

Best of luck competing with UCLA and U of A.

Please wake me up when Fox is gone.
Make you a deal. We will wake you up when Fox is gone, if you promise to stay asleep and off this board until he is.

Feel free to put me on mute, friend. In the meantime, enjoy your **** basketball.
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In reply to stu • 8:25p, 3/3/22
stu said:
A new thread to alleviate concerns about spoiling our huge win over Stanford:

I'm assuming Kelly will not return but the rest of our scholarship players will. Also that everyone is healthy.

My guess at the starting lineup:
PG - Brown (SR)
SG - Celestine (JR)
SF - Alajiki (SO)
PF - Kuany (SR)
C - Thiemann (SR)

And the rest of the rotation:
PG - Hyder (SR)
SG - Roberson (SO)
SF - Bowser (JR) or Klonaras (SR)
PF - Anyanwu (SO) or Newell (FR)
C - Thorpe (SR) or Okafor (FR)

I think those starters should be solid, with outside shooting my primary concern. As one would expect there's not much experience on the bench, how those players develop will be a big factor.

Those starters could be very good, defensively. Roberson, Bowser and Anyanwu coming off the bench, too.

And then there's the other half of the equation . . .
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