It was another rough year for Cal Basketball as there were flashes of good play but it did not always translate on the scoreboard. Like many of you I believe Fox's seat is hotter than ever so unless major changes happen recruiting/development/transfer portal it'll possibly be another long year.
The Good:
- We will be returning 14 player (pending portal and if Andre Kelly uses his 5th year option)
- If Andre Kelly returns he will be poised to make a breakout year and be a leader on the team
- This will be an experienced team with 8 Seniors, 2 Juniors and 3 Sophomores making what could be a dangerous team.
The Bad:
- We will be losing Jordan Shepherd, Grant Anticevich, and Makale Foreman
- We will be losing 2 of our 3 top scorers in Shepherd and Anticevich
- Offense is still desperately needed
Offseason needs:
- Attack the portal: This will be a huge one to get an upgrade in offense. There are many athletes looking for homes that could be an instant impact such as Tyreke Key Guard from Indiana State (17ppg, 5rpg, 1spg), Jayden Martinez Forward from New Hampshire (15ppg, 6rpg, 42% from 3) and Neal Quinn Center out of Lafayette (15ppg, 7rpg, 40% from 3)
- 3pt% is needed to be emphasized: Cal shot on average 30.8% from deep shooting about 18 attempts per game (last in the Pac-12). That puts Cal at 320 out of 358 D1 teams. When your defense is holding team on average 30.9% (1st in the Pac-12) from deep you are playing very good defense on the arch but you need to make them pay behind the arch. I do not believe the solution is playing live or die by the 3 but if Cal bumped up their make percentage by 3.2% making their 3p% 34% that would make them an average/good 3pt team and move them near 165 out of 358 team and 5th in the Pac-12. Out of the 18 games the shot under 29% from 3 their were 3-13. When they shot over 29.1% they were 9-7. When they shot over the 34% I was talking about earlier they are 7-4.
Keys to next year:
- Get to the number 70: This one ties into more offense obviously but Cal was 8-2 when they scored 70 or more points and 4-18 when they did not. Which outside of the Arizona and Southern Utah game they shot at a 45% FGM or higher. When they shot 45% from the field or higher they were 8-3. If Andre Kelly decides to come back he will be a key factor on how this team performs offensively.
- Make slight improvements on defense but take care of the ball the same: Despite the rough season Cal only allowed 11 turnovers a game (2nd in Pac-12) and displayed nice passing multiple times a game. Sharing the rock and taking care of the ball isn't the issue it is just putting it in the basket. Defensively we were the worst in the Pac-12 at forcing turnovers but were in the top 5 in almost every other category. 1st in Pac-12 and 14th in the NCAA for number of assist given up, 1st in Pac-12 and 48th in NCAA in Opponent made 3pt, 4th in PAC-12 with Points allowed.
Win games that should've gone our way: A few games stick out to me that Cal should have very much won last year but the ball bounced the other way. Games that should have been automatic wins: UC
San Diego and UNLV. Games that should have gone our way: Seton Hall (Nov 24th), Utah (Dec. 5th), Washington State (Feb. 5th), Utah (Feb. 19th). Winning those games would have put us at a solid overall record of 18-14 but a not great conference record at 8-12. Most of those loses were teams heating up in the second half or us not closing out on the opportunity. If we improve how we played in the last 10 mins of the game all those games could have been wins.
Hopefully Fox turns it around this year but recruiting has been average and offensive development has left more to be desired. There will need to be some major changes if he wants to be around for the 2023 season.
The Good:
- We will be returning 14 player (pending portal and if Andre Kelly uses his 5th year option)
- If Andre Kelly returns he will be poised to make a breakout year and be a leader on the team
- This will be an experienced team with 8 Seniors, 2 Juniors and 3 Sophomores making what could be a dangerous team.
The Bad:
- We will be losing Jordan Shepherd, Grant Anticevich, and Makale Foreman
- We will be losing 2 of our 3 top scorers in Shepherd and Anticevich
- Offense is still desperately needed
Offseason needs:
- Attack the portal: This will be a huge one to get an upgrade in offense. There are many athletes looking for homes that could be an instant impact such as Tyreke Key Guard from Indiana State (17ppg, 5rpg, 1spg), Jayden Martinez Forward from New Hampshire (15ppg, 6rpg, 42% from 3) and Neal Quinn Center out of Lafayette (15ppg, 7rpg, 40% from 3)
- 3pt% is needed to be emphasized: Cal shot on average 30.8% from deep shooting about 18 attempts per game (last in the Pac-12). That puts Cal at 320 out of 358 D1 teams. When your defense is holding team on average 30.9% (1st in the Pac-12) from deep you are playing very good defense on the arch but you need to make them pay behind the arch. I do not believe the solution is playing live or die by the 3 but if Cal bumped up their make percentage by 3.2% making their 3p% 34% that would make them an average/good 3pt team and move them near 165 out of 358 team and 5th in the Pac-12. Out of the 18 games the shot under 29% from 3 their were 3-13. When they shot over 29.1% they were 9-7. When they shot over the 34% I was talking about earlier they are 7-4.
Keys to next year:
- Get to the number 70: This one ties into more offense obviously but Cal was 8-2 when they scored 70 or more points and 4-18 when they did not. Which outside of the Arizona and Southern Utah game they shot at a 45% FGM or higher. When they shot 45% from the field or higher they were 8-3. If Andre Kelly decides to come back he will be a key factor on how this team performs offensively.
- Make slight improvements on defense but take care of the ball the same: Despite the rough season Cal only allowed 11 turnovers a game (2nd in Pac-12) and displayed nice passing multiple times a game. Sharing the rock and taking care of the ball isn't the issue it is just putting it in the basket. Defensively we were the worst in the Pac-12 at forcing turnovers but were in the top 5 in almost every other category. 1st in Pac-12 and 14th in the NCAA for number of assist given up, 1st in Pac-12 and 48th in NCAA in Opponent made 3pt, 4th in PAC-12 with Points allowed.
Win games that should've gone our way: A few games stick out to me that Cal should have very much won last year but the ball bounced the other way. Games that should have been automatic wins: UC
San Diego and UNLV. Games that should have gone our way: Seton Hall (Nov 24th), Utah (Dec. 5th), Washington State (Feb. 5th), Utah (Feb. 19th). Winning those games would have put us at a solid overall record of 18-14 but a not great conference record at 8-12. Most of those loses were teams heating up in the second half or us not closing out on the opportunity. If we improve how we played in the last 10 mins of the game all those games could have been wins.
Hopefully Fox turns it around this year but recruiting has been average and offensive development has left more to be desired. There will need to be some major changes if he wants to be around for the 2023 season.
