Civil Bear said:

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calumnus said:

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Civil Bear said:

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stu said:

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calumnus said:

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... Klonaras and Thorpe are 1 year away from a Cal degree. It would be stupid for them to leave and criminal to force them to ...

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It may be possible for one or both to graduate early, like Matthews did. I agree it would be criminal to force that.

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Not only criminal but not possible. Schollies are guaranteed for 4 years.

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If under pressure from the coach, the player enters the portal, or moves back to Greece, he loses his scholarship and it can be given to someone else.

Didn't we end up getting Winston and McCullogh's scholies back within two years? Fox has had the full 13.

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Yes, if the player leaves Cal then he obviously forfeits his scholly, but the player is not obligated to do so. We were fortunate that Winston and McCullogh decided to move on, but the discussion was about it being criminal to make a player give up his chance for a Cal degree with only a year to go. If the player values the degree more than playing his last season elsewhere, then he is free to stay and graduate on Cal's dime...and the basketball program would be out the scholly slot that year.

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Yeah, not impossible, but given they will be seniors and not freshmen, less likely they leave. Shoot, they could stay, get their degree, then grad transfer for their final year (or two) of eligibility.

Chauca is playing well and could come back.

4thGenCal said:

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4thGen:
Several questions/decisions will hopefully be answered over next 60+ days: 1) DJ Thorpe decision to play (has battled ongoing injury occurrences and his back has a chronic weakness that may never be 100% - and does he want to commit to the grind to rehab/ play when it has to be a passion? Only He will know). Klonarus status - likely not returning but tbd (thus an extra scholarship), Kelly decision to return or not (likely 40/60) Hyder likely returning and wants to be 100%. Bowser working hard hopefully he can get stronger, Joel needs minor knee surgery - will require 6 week recovery (He played the season with a slight tear and it got larger at the end - thus didnt play much at end of season). Incoming power forward recruit though raw is an athletic body and will help. However yes, even with another player or two added to the roster, its unlikely to result in a better than 9-10 finish in conf. Wish the decision to change staff would happen sooner/now, but due to(AD belief's) 1) wants to give staff additional year since "dealt with major obstacles over past couple of years/including inherited program", 2) Buyout plus new financial package significant and not necessarily an easy raise 3) concerned that back to back fairly quick terminations,could dissuade future candidates.

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Thanks for another insight.

The best news I've heard about Cal basketball is Kelly is 40% returning.
I gave the probability 10%.

Apparently the thinks we can solve the problem with transfers...

...but not Cal ... at this time ...

There are plenty of transfer players that can help, but bigs are not likely. Every team is looking for an impact big, yet they are a rare commodity and will probably go to a power team (e.g. oregon, AZ, or even an ASU)

If Kelly stays we don't have that problem, as Lars and Kelly will be our main front line, with others filling in with limited minutes as backups (we still need one to step up as Grant was a solid defender, rebounder and scorer as a stretch 4.

Then we can use our open slot with a transfer guard like Shepherd (does he have a brother?), or for a dynamic undersized guard (e.g. that transferred to WSU and UW).

Even if both good things happen (Kelly stays, and we get an impact guard), we still need another impact player, but are unlikely to have another schollie unless someone else transfers (and hopefully not a starter)

sluggo said:

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Calboy23 said:

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It was another rough year for Cal Basketball as there were flashes of good play but it did not always translate on the scoreboard. Like many of you I believe Fox's seat is hotter than ever so unless major changes happen recruiting/development/transfer portal it'll possibly be another long year.

The Good:
- We will be returning 14 player (pending portal and if Andre Kelly uses his 5th year option)
- If Andre Kelly returns he will be poised to make a breakout year and be a leader on the team
- This will be an experienced team with 8 Seniors, 2 Juniors and 3 Sophomores making what could be a dangerous team.

The Bad:
- We will be losing Jordan Shepherd, Grant Anticevich, and Makale Foreman
- We will be losing 2 of our 3 top scorers in Shepherd and Anticevich
- Offense is still desperately needed

Offseason needs:
- Attack the portal: This will be a huge one to get an upgrade in offense. There are many athletes looking for homes that could be an instant impact such as Tyreke Key Guard from Indiana State (17ppg, 5rpg, 1spg), Jayden Martinez Forward from New Hampshire (15ppg, 6rpg, 42% from 3) and Neal Quinn Center out of Lafayette (15ppg, 7rpg, 40% from 3)

- 3pt% is needed to be emphasized: Cal shot on average 30.8% from deep shooting about 18 attempts per game (last in the Pac-12). That puts Cal at 320 out of 358 D1 teams. When your defense is holding team on average 30.9% (1st in the Pac-12) from deep you are playing very good defense on the arch but you need to make them pay behind the arch. I do not believe the solution is playing live or die by the 3 but if Cal bumped up their make percentage by 3.2% making their 3p% 34% that would make them an average/good 3pt team and move them near 165 out of 358 team and 5th in the Pac-12. Out of the 18 games the shot under 29% from 3 their were 3-13. When they shot over 29.1% they were 9-7. When they shot over the 34% I was talking about earlier they are 7-4.

Keys to next year:

- Get to the number 70: This one ties into more offense obviously but Cal was 8-2 when they scored 70 or more points and 4-18 when they did not. Which outside of the Arizona and Southern Utah game they shot at a 45% FGM or higher. When they shot 45% from the field or higher they were 8-3. If Andre Kelly decides to come back he will be a key factor on how this team performs offensively.

- Make slight improvements on defense but take care of the ball the same: Despite the rough season Cal only allowed 11 turnovers a game (2nd in Pac-12) and displayed nice passing multiple times a game. Sharing the rock and taking care of the ball isn't the issue it is just putting it in the basket. Defensively we were the worst in the Pac-12 at forcing turnovers but were in the top 5 in almost every other category. 1st in Pac-12 and 14th in the NCAA for number of assist given up, 1st in Pac-12 and 48th in NCAA in Opponent made 3pt, 4th in PAC-12 with Points allowed.

Win games that should've gone our way: A few games stick out to me that Cal should have very much won last year but the ball bounced the other way. Games that should have been automatic wins: UC
San Diego and UNLV. Games that should have gone our way: Seton Hall (Nov 24th), Utah (Dec. 5th), Washington State (Feb. 5th), Utah (Feb. 19th). Winning those games would have put us at a solid overall record of 18-14 but a not great conference record at 8-12. Most of those loses were teams heating up in the second half or us not closing out on the opportunity. If we improve how we played in the last 10 mins of the game all those games could have been wins.

Hopefully Fox turns it around this year but recruiting has been average and offensive development has left more to be desired. There will need to be some major changes if he wants to be around for the 2023 season.

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The thing about this analysis is that improvements are based on magic.

1. Would be great to shoot better from 3, but Fox has repeatedly recruited bad shooters.
2. Would be great to score more, but Fox has repeatedly recruited non-scorers.
3. Would be great to win more close games, but end of game situations are almost random. A team is always going to win some and lose some. If there is a method to winning close games, it would be to find scorers who can get theirs even when the other team is focused on them. Cal has no one like that.
4. Even the strength on not committing turnovers is probably going away next year. In addition to Brown having surgery, Foreman and Grant A. are leaving. Foreman was the second best ball handler and Grant A. was helpful against the press. The incoming class so far has no ball handlers (or shooters or scorers).

The only thing preventing Cal from being at the very bottom would be a couple of strong transfers.

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This is exactly correct and why the OP's analysis, while reasonable on the surface and at times accurate, is not a productive mental exercise for anyone, as someone else suggested. There are things that players and teams can improve year over year without new talent coming in. Shooting/offensive ability is not usually one of them.

As for close game performance, I don't usually buy arguments like, "That was just the other team heating up." Well, play better defense.

I really can't believe we're going to keep this guy around. Meanwhile, a few miles away there are two teams in the tourney who play smart, organized, tough, and entertaining basketball.