https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/wsu-cougar-basketball/analysis-jon-wilners-ridiculously-early-projections-for-the-2023-pac-12-mens-basketball-race/?amp=1

Upshot: Cal needs Kelly to come back ((unlikely) to be assured of 11th.

calumnus said:

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https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/wsu-cougar-basketball/analysis-jon-wilners-ridiculously-early-projections-for-the-2023-pac-12-mens-basketball-race/?amp=1

Upshot: Cal needs Kelly to come back ((unlikely) to be assured of 11th.

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and just about every other team has potential upside from the portal, except Cal which has no spots

HoopDreams said:

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calumnus said:

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https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/wsu-cougar-basketball/analysis-jon-wilners-ridiculously-early-projections-for-the-2023-pac-12-mens-basketball-race/?amp=1

Upshot: Cal needs Kelly to come back ((unlikely) to be assured of 11th.

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and just about every other team has potential upside from the portal, except Cal which has no spots

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I think Klonaras graduating in 3 years and entering the portal opens up a roster spot if Kelly doesn't come back.

Obviously if we land an amazing prospect in the portal we could be about as good as we have been the last few years, which is bad, but not as bad as we will be otherwise.

calumnus said:

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HoopDreams said:

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calumnus said:

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https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/wsu-cougar-basketball/analysis-jon-wilners-ridiculously-early-projections-for-the-2023-pac-12-mens-basketball-race/?amp=1

Upshot: Cal needs Kelly to come back ((unlikely) to be assured of 11th.

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and just about every other team has potential upside from the portal, except Cal which has no spots

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I think Klonaras graduating in 3 years and entering the portal opens up a roster spot if Kelly doesn't come back.

Obviously if we land an amazing prospect in the portal we could be about as good as we have been the last few years, which is bad, but not as bad as we will be otherwise.

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if we lose Kelly (which I assume we will) then yes, we will have one open spot

but that means we lose our best player (best rebounder, best post defender, and best post scorer), our second best big (strong rebounder, solid defender, good scorer and stretch 4), our most versatile player (strong scorer, solid shooter, best passer, and the only player who can make their own shot), and a backup PG (good shooter and solid ball handler)

And all 4 were senior or super senior vets

Signing one impact transfer won't come close to replacing the above scoring, rebounding, and post defense, and they likely won't replace the shot making at the end of the clock

The x-factors are Bowser and Thorpe who are coming off injury and we haven't seen in a year

HoopDreams said:

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calumnus said:

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HoopDreams said:

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calumnus said:

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https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/wsu-cougar-basketball/analysis-jon-wilners-ridiculously-early-projections-for-the-2023-pac-12-mens-basketball-race/?amp=1

Upshot: Cal needs Kelly to come back ((unlikely) to be assured of 11th.

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and just about every other team has potential upside from the portal, except Cal which has no spots

---

I think Klonaras graduating in 3 years and entering the portal opens up a roster spot if Kelly doesn't come back.

Obviously if we land an amazing prospect in the portal we could be about as good as we have been the last few years, which is bad, but not as bad as we will be otherwise.

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if we lose Kelly (which I assume we will) then yes, we will have one open spot

but that means we lose our best player (best rebounder, best post defender, and best post scorer), our second best big (strong rebounder, solid defender, good scorer and stretch 4), our most versatile player (strong scorer, solid shooter, best passer, and the only player who can make their own shot), and a backup PG (good shooter and solid ball handler)

And all 4 were senior or super senior vets

Signing one impact transfer won't come close to replacing the above scoring, rebounding, and post defense, and they likely won't replace the shot making at the end of the clock

The x-factors are Bowser and Thorpe who are coming off injury and we haven't seen in a year

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Yeah, I said "If we land an amazing transfer" ie essentially a 5 star who can do all those things you mention, then we can be about as good as we have been. We both know that is not going to happen. We will almost certainly be worse next year. Probably historically bad.

And at that point, you would think Fox HAS to go.

parentswerebears said:

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And at that point, you would think Fox HAS to go.

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As he has continued to do for the last two years, I'm pretty sure Knowlton will find a new way to surprise us.

parentswerebears said:

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And at that point, you would think Fox HAS to go.

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The hopeful sign is that JK publicly noted recruiting problems and the need to step it up in the exit interview so I am hopeful that next years abject failure will get him to pull the trigger.

Hope so.

socaltownie said:

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parentswerebears said:

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And at that point, you would think Fox HAS to go.

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The hopeful sign is that JK publicly noted recruiting problems and the need to step it up in the exit interview so I am hopeful that next years abject failure will get him to pull the trigger.

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The big concern is the huge 2023 recruiting class that Fox will sign this Fall and "gift" to the new coach for the following 4 or 5 years.

I'm not super concerned. A good coach builds with what they have. I'm sure there would be turnover from year to year. Those who don't think they'll get playing time will leave and there will be openings. It seems that there is more fluidity now with transfers.

parentswerebears said:

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I'm not super concerned. A good coach builds with what they have. I'm sure there would be turnover from year to year. Those who don't think they'll get playing time will leave and there will be openings. It seems that there is more fluidity now with transfers.

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The only players we have had leave were starters. The benchwarmers have stuck around for the degree, they are smart enough to know that if they cannot get playing time on this team, basketball is not their future.

The new coach needs to have more than one or two scholies to give, because attracting a top player to play on a team full of lesser talents makes the task even more difficult.

But, we'll just have to hope, I guess.