The Foul Five-per Massey!

2,791 Views | 34 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by Cal8285
Ccajon2
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These are the bottom 5 ranked P5 programs.
Rank / school / projected wins/ ov 200
#134 / Georgia / 7/ 5
#115 / Pitt / 11 / 6
#104 / Ore. St. / 9 / 1
#102 / Neb. / 7 / 4
#95 / Cal / 13 / 4

I guess the KY transfer moved us up a bit.
Please note ov200 means the # schools with a Massey rating over 200. Basically, all of the bottom 5 are considered to have the most difficult schedule.
calumnus
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Ccajon2 said:

These are the bottom 5 ranked P5 programs.
Rank / school / projected wins/ ov 200
#134 / Georgia / 7/ 5
#115 / Pitt / 11 / 6
#104 / Ore. St. / 9 / 1
#102 / Neb. / 7 / 4
#95 / Cal / 13 / 4

I guess the KY transfer moved us up a bit.
#



Crazy that OSU had a Tournament run just two years ago.
philbert
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Georgia should take Fox back!
eastcoastcal
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Lets go!!!!! Not in triple digits!!!!!

KoreAmBear
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calumnus said:

Ccajon2 said:

These are the bottom 5 ranked P5 programs.
Rank / school / projected wins/ ov 200
#134 / Georgia / 7/ 5
#115 / Pitt / 11 / 6
#104 / Ore. St. / 9 / 1
#102 / Neb. / 7 / 4
#95 / Cal / 13 / 4

I guess the KY transfer moved us up a bit.
#



Crazy that OSU had a Tournament run just two years ago.
Yah Elite 8. I would take that once in a while and suck most years. Instead since 1997 (Braun's first year), we have have not made the second weekend of the NCAAs. 25 years and one Sweet 16. That's pretty lame.
Econ141
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Ccajon2 said:

These are the bottom 5 ranked P5 programs.
Rank / school / projected wins/ ov 200
#134 / Georgia / 7/ 5
#115 / Pitt / 11 / 6
#104 / Ore. St. / 9 / 1
#102 / Neb. / 7 / 4
#95 / Cal / 13 / 4

I guess the KY transfer moved us up a bit.
Please note ov200 means the # schools with a Massey rating over 200. Basically, all of the bottom 5 are considered to have the most difficult schedule.



We are the best of the worst! Things are looking up!
calumnus
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Knowlton working wonders with our revenue sports.
SFCityBear
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KoreAmBear said:

calumnus said:

Ccajon2 said:

These are the bottom 5 ranked P5 programs.
Rank / school / projected wins/ ov 200
#134 / Georgia / 7/ 5
#115 / Pitt / 11 / 6
#104 / Ore. St. / 9 / 1
#102 / Neb. / 7 / 4
#95 / Cal / 13 / 4

I guess the KY transfer moved us up a bit.
#



Crazy that OSU had a Tournament run just two years ago.
Yah Elite 8. I would take that once in a while and suck most years. Instead since 1997 (Braun's first year), we have have not made the second weekend of the NCAAs. 25 years and one Sweet 16. That's pretty lame.
We haven't won or even been in an Elite 8 since 1960, 62 years ago.
SFCityBear
eastcoastcal
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Worst part is a lot of those schools have some hope:

Georgia got 1 top 100 player last year, 2 this year (one is technically 102 but still)
Pitt has 2 four-stars this recruiting class and a top 50 player last year
OSU at least had the sweet 16 run recently
Nebraska got the 104th ranked player last year, a top 20 class in 2021 (including a top 30 player)

We have little to no upward trajectory. I am excited to see what ND + Grant do but MBB is one sport where I actually do put stock into recruiting rankings. They tend to be quite accurate because the good players play year round, have the ball often, and go up against elite competition since most people play in the same circuits or go to the same tournaments. It's not like football where you only have 1-2 seasons of tape on players on varsity (sophomore, junior year) before making offers.

Recruiting is everything and we have nothing
Ccajon2
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Updated rankings We're #1!!

Cal #198 (0-1)
Georgia. #126 (1-0)
Pitts. #120 (1-0)
Neb. #113 (1-0)
Ore st. #87. (1-0)
KoreAmBear
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Ccajon2 said:

Updated rankings We're #1!!

Cal #198 (0-1)
Georgia. #126 (1-0)
Pitts. #120 (1-0)
Neb. #113 (1-0)
Ore st. #87. (1-0)
Congrats!

Ccajon2
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Updated as of Sun 11-13. PM.
#215 Cal (0-2)
#193 Louisville (0-2)
#165 Fla st. (0-2)
#151 Vandy (0-2)
#150 Geo. (0-2)
Dropped up: Neb, Pitt, Ore st.
KoreAmBear
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Ccajon2 said:

Updated as of Sun 11-13. PM.
#215 Cal (0-2)
#193 Louisville (0-2)
#165 Fla st. (0-2)
#151 Vandy (0-2)
#150 Geo. (0-2)
Dropped up: Neb, Pitt, Ore st.
Louisville closing in fast! We must lose to UCSD.
philbert
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KoreAmBear said:

Ccajon2 said:

Updated as of Sun 11-13. PM.
#215 Cal (0-2)
#193 Louisville (0-2)
#165 Fla st. (0-2)
#151 Vandy (0-2)
#150 Geo. (0-2)
Dropped up: Neb, Pitt, Ore st.
Louisville closing in fast! We must lose to UCSD.


If true, I hope so.

Ccajon2
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Now it's getting ugly:
#283 Cal (0-4)
#240 Loui (0-3)
#221 FSU (0-4)
#119 NEB (2-1)
#135 Geo (3-1)

Note how the bottom two, who enjoy decent recruiting classes are improving. Cal is killing the conference RPI with this bloated rating. Maybe the other schools can chip in some $$ so we can change coaches.
Oakbear
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Ccajon2 said:


Now it's getting ugly:
#283 Cal (0-4)
#240 Loui (0-3)
#221 FSU (0-4)
#119 NEB (2-1)
#135 Geo (3-1)

Note how the bottom two, who enjoy decent recruiting classes are improving. Cal is killing the conference RPI with this bloated rating. Maybe the other schools can chip in some $$ so we can change coaches.

Why would they, playing cal this year will be like having a "bye"
stu
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Oakbear said:

Ccajon2 said:


Now it's getting ugly:
#283 Cal (0-4)
#240 Loui (0-3)
#221 FSU (0-4)
#119 NEB (2-1)
#135 Geo (3-1)

Note how the bottom two, who enjoy decent recruiting classes are improving. Cal is killing the conference RPI with this bloated rating. Maybe the other schools can chip in some $$ so we can change coaches.

Why would they, playing cal this year will be like having a "bye"
Not necessarily - a win over Cal might hurt their RPI more than a bye.
CalLifer
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Do we know what the worst ranking of all time for a P5 hoops team is? The fact that Fox is still the coach is the surest sign that this season is really targeting setting that record. Can we get to 325? Maybe 350? Stay Tuned!
KoreAmBear
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CalLifer said:

Do we know what the worst ranking of all time for a P5 hoops team is? The fact that Fox is still the coach is the surest sign that this season is really targeting setting that record. Can we get to 325? Maybe 350? Stay Tuned!
I don't know but 0-5 coming up, then traveling to a tournament in FL to get smoked.

Fire Fox now. Please.
BeachedBear
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CalLifer said:

Do we know what the worst ranking of all time for a P5 hoops team is? The fact that Fox is still the coach is the surest sign that this season is really targeting setting that record. Can we get to 325? Maybe 350? Stay Tuned!
According to CBS listing we are #346 as of 11/21/22 (out of 363)
Cal8285
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BeachedBear said:

CalLifer said:

Do we know what the worst ranking of all time for a P5 hoops team is? The fact that Fox is still the coach is the surest sign that this season is really targeting setting that record. Can we get to 325? Maybe 350? Stay Tuned!
According to CBS listing we are #346 as of 11/21/22 (out of 363)
Where do you find the CBS listings?

As of the end of 11/20/22 (before today's games), Cal has the following rankings:

Sagarin 205
Massey 289
KenPom 203
ESPN BPI 163

Only ESPN has us better than Texas St.

A loss tonight and we'll start the season 0-9. A win and we'll start the season 1-8. But the four games after tonight will improve our strength of schedule so far.
BeachedBear
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Cal8285 said:

BeachedBear said:

CalLifer said:

Do we know what the worst ranking of all time for a P5 hoops team is? The fact that Fox is still the coach is the surest sign that this season is really targeting setting that record. Can we get to 325? Maybe 350? Stay Tuned!
According to CBS listing we are #346 as of 11/21/22 (out of 363)
Where do you find the CBS listings?

As of the end of 11/20/22 (before today's games), Cal has the following rankings:

Sagarin 205
Massey 289
KenPom 203
ESPN BPI 163

Only ESPN has us better than Texas St.

A loss tonight and we'll start the season 0-9. A win and we'll start the season 1-8. But the four games after tonight will improve our strength of schedule so far.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/rpi/

For those wondering what company we are in:

347 Hartford
348 Houston Chr.
349 Alabama A&M
350 St. Fran.-Pa.
351 Air Force
352 Rhode Island
353 Manhattan
354 N. Iowa
355 Delaware
356 Louisville
357 Fresneck
358 Brown
359 Idaho
360 Stony Brook
361 N. Mex. St.
361 Jackson St.
363 C. Carolina
stu
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We're still ahead of Air Force so Knowlton is assured we're doing fine.
calumnus
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stu said:

We're still ahead of Air Force so Knowlton is assured we're doing fine.


Air Force was just as bad the three years Knowlton was there and he saw no reason to make a change.

And that inaction at Air Force landed him a P5 AD job making $1 million a year for over a decade, guaranteed money. Why do something when you keep succeeding by doing nothing? When he makes decisions he only makes things worse anyway.
Ccajon2
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We're #300!!!
annarborbear
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Carol thinks that the lower we go, the better it is, since there are more important things than winning.
Cal8285
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BeachedBear said:

Cal8285 said:

BeachedBear said:

CalLifer said:

Do we know what the worst ranking of all time for a P5 hoops team is? The fact that Fox is still the coach is the surest sign that this season is really targeting setting that record. Can we get to 325? Maybe 350? Stay Tuned!
According to CBS listing we are #346 as of 11/21/22 (out of 363)
Where do you find the CBS listings?

As of the end of 11/20/22 (before today's games), Cal has the following rankings:

Sagarin 205
Massey 289
KenPom 203
ESPN BPI 163

Only ESPN has us better than Texas St.

A loss tonight and we'll start the season 0-9. A win and we'll start the season 1-8. But the four games after tonight will improve our strength of schedule so far.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/rpi/

For those wondering what company we are in:

347 Hartford
348 Houston Chr.
349 Alabama A&M
350 St. Fran.-Pa.
351 Air Force
352 Rhode Island
353 Manhattan
354 N. Iowa
355 Delaware
356 Louisville
357 Fresneck
358 Brown
359 Idaho
360 Stony Brook
361 N. Mex. St.
361 Jackson St.
363 C. Carolina

Ah, CBS posts more than one set, this is the old RPI formula, which everybody thought was pretty much garbage.

CBS also posts the NET rankings, which the NCAA uses for the tourney. This actually gives Cal the highest ranking of any I have found, at 150. https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/net/

Numbers below are first at the end of Monday's games, second either at the end of Tuesday's games or including a handful of Wednesday games. Somehow, we moved up from 355 to 330 in RPI without playing any games.

RPI 355 - 330
NET 150 - 150
ESPN BPI 176 - 177
Sagarin 217 - 207
Massey 300 - 296
KenPom 211 - 209

Just goes to show a couple of things, one, the computer ratings can have WIDE variances, especially early in the season and two, how the "strength of schedule" formula is determined really can impact these ratings. Based on the eye test and not having seen enough crappy teams, I'm guessing Massey is the rating closest to reality for the Bears, but that's all seat of the pants. The NET and ESPN BPI both seem WAY too high.
Ccajon2
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Lowest ranking team in each P5 Conference:

#297 Cal (0-8) Pac-12
#211 Lou.(0-7) ACC
#150 S. Caro (3-4) SEC
#122 Minn (4-3) B1G
#59 Ok. St. (5-2) Big 12.
CalLifer
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Ccajon2 said:

Lowest ranking team in each P5 Conference:

#297 Cal (0-8) Pac-12
#211 Lou.(0-7) ACC
#150 S. Caro (3-4) SEC
#122 Minn (4-3) B1G
#59 Ok. St. (5-2) Big 12.

Arizona might actually boost our ranking thanks to strength of schedule. To really have a good chance at breaking the 300 barrier, we might have to lose to EWU and UTSA. Certainly well within the realm of possibility/probability. I have faith in Fox that he can reach that level!
calumnus
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CalLifer said:

Ccajon2 said:

Lowest ranking team in each P5 Conference:

#297 Cal (0-8) Pac-12
#211 Lou.(0-7) ACC
#150 S. Caro (3-4) SEC
#122 Minn (4-3) B1G
#59 Ok. St. (5-2) Big 12.

Arizona might actually boost our ranking thanks to strength of schedule. To really have a good chance at breaking the 300 barrier, we might have to lose to EWU and UTSA. Certainly well within the realm of possibility/probability. I have faith in Fox that he can reach that level!


Arizona just lost to Utah. Expect the highest scoring team in the country to want to take it out on the Cal Bears, the #359 scoring team.
CalLifer
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calumnus said:

CalLifer said:

Ccajon2 said:

Lowest ranking team in each P5 Conference:

#297 Cal (0-8) Pac-12
#211 Lou.(0-7) ACC
#150 S. Caro (3-4) SEC
#122 Minn (4-3) B1G
#59 Ok. St. (5-2) Big 12.

Arizona might actually boost our ranking thanks to strength of schedule. To really have a good chance at breaking the 300 barrier, we might have to lose to EWU and UTSA. Certainly well within the realm of possibility/probability. I have faith in Fox that he can reach that level!


Arizona just lost to Utah. Expect the highest scoring team in the country to want to take it out on the Cal Bears, the #359 scoring team.


Definitely one of the two thoughts I had after seeing Utah upset Arizona. The second was that any lingering pre-season thoughts that Utah might be fighting with cal and OSU for the 10-11-12 slots should be dead and buried if they weren't already.
philbert
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And OSU beat UW.

Fire Fox now!
Big C
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Let's say Cal beats U of A -- no, I did not visit the dispensary today, just a hypothetical -- would it be the biggest sports upset of all time?
dimitrig
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Big C said:


Let's say Cal beats U of A -- no, I did not visit the dispensary today, just a hypothetical -- would it be the biggest sports upset of all time?


No, but many of them involve Arizona on the losing end.
Cal8285
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Big C said:


Let's say Cal beats U of A -- no, I did not visit the dispensary today, just a hypothetical -- would it be the biggest sports upset of all time?
It's basketball, where weird things can happen. Massive underdog gets hot from 3 even though they don't know how to create a good shot, the favorite is cold from three, which helps contribute to some transition buckets for the underdog. The breaks go the way of the underdog. Stuff like that happens in basketball. Huge football upsets are more unlikely.

While Cal over Arizona is extremely unlikely, not as unlikely as, say, LSJU over U$C in football in 2007. A win by a 41 point underdog in a major conference game is something never seen before and not likely to be seen again.

And in basketball, Cal over Arizona wouldn't be the upset that Chaminade over Virginia was 40 years ago.

Yeah, I'm sayin' there's a chance. Whatever the money line is on Cal, stay away from it, however, you need it to be AT LEAST 10 times higher (probably more) to make it a good bet. But yeah, there's a chance.
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