I predict lots of BI insightful input from KAB from the Islands.



….and some bitter, drunken non insightful commentary from me from the mean streets of the WC.

eastcoastcal said:

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Floor: 12th place in conference
Ceiling: 9th

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Seems fair, with both highly dependent on what the other schools do.

My non-con prediction in rapid fire with no opponent scouting:

November 7 Home UC Davis - LOSS (first game for new players/rotation)
November 11 Home Kansas State - LOSS
November 15 Away UC San Diego - WIN
November 18 Home Southern -WIN
November 21 Home Texas State - WIN
November 25 Neutral TCU - LOSS
November 26 Neutral Clemson/Iowa - LOSS
December 7 Home Eastern Washington -WIN
December 10 Home Butler - LOSS
December 18 Away Santa Clara - LOSS
December 21 Home UT Arlington - WIN

*Edited to win vs Texas St.: 5-6. There's no reason to think we're gonna be improved til we actually see it. And I just know our first couple games are gonna be ugly; slow down half court offense, struggling to score, limited 3s, and well coached opponents jumping out to leads on us. We've seen it before. I hope I'm wrong.

calumnus said:

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Big C said:

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eastcoastcal said:

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Floor: 12th place in conference
Ceiling: 9th

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I think we can finish as high as 8th place!!!

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There won't be 4 teams worse than us.

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I'm still trying to figure the 3rd team who could be worse than us (for our ceiling to be 9th). I know we will battle with OSU and Utah to try to stay out of 12th, but I feel like there is a big gap between that group of three and the rest of the Pac-12.

Then finishing 10th would make us best in our class and get out coach's contract extended.

stu said:

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Then finishing 10th would make us best in our class and get out coach's contract extended.

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Yes, 10th would be "improvement" plus "we have a young team, we need to give Mark Fox a chance to develop HIS players, but we are proud of Coach Fox, he is doing it the right way."

Any possibility that writers here might review English grammar and adjust their writings accordingly?

calumnus said:

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Big C said:

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eastcoastcal said:

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Floor: 12th place in conference
Ceiling: 9th

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I think we can finish as high as 8th place!!!

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There won't be 4 teams worse than us.

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There might be. Okay, I'm not going to bet my 401k on it, but I think we have about an 18.7% chance of finishing in at least 8th place. All right, tied for 8th place...

bearchamp said:

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Any possibility that writers here might review English grammar and adjust their writings accordingly?

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Worser than us?

Back in the day, 70% had to take subject A. I did not, and I spell at about a fourth of fifth grade level, on a good day.

It who we be.

Bobodeluxe said:

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Back in the day, 70% had to take subject A. I did not, and I spell at about a fourth of fifth grade level, on a good day.

It who we be.

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on the first try in 1966 i dodged UCSD's subject-a class requirement with a carefully structured essay explaining why the tv show Batman was truly Art. arguably life's gone downhill ever since..
"nominated for 3 Primetime Emmy Awards"
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0059968

lucasst33 said:

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What are your predictions for the mens basketball team this year? I am wanting to be optimistic because we have Devin Askew, new additions, etc

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I want to be optimistic too. Fox did nothing to couch his praise for Newell. Whole staff. That is somewhat surprising from a coach who is always measured it seems in managing expectations. So if the new Grant is a serviceable option (previously not projected as that kind of recruit) that cushions the loss of Celestine a bit. See him more as a 4 than a 3. Like I said, time for optimism (Askew realizes potential, Newell continues to surprise, Celestine recovers, Alajiki and Lars make strides)...not inconceivable this could be a tough team to play in February. Who knows if the record will show it, but could be much improved from the team in early December.

first five: Askew, Celestine, Alajiki, Newell, and Lars
bench: Brown, Clayton, 2K

Expect that is the core 8-man rotation with starting lineups in many combinations.

Spot minutes (love to be wrong) and a chance to earn more for Bowser, Roberson, Anyanwu, Okafor, and Hyder.
Will be really interesting, and key for 2023-24, to see how they do.

5th place in the PAC . . . tied.
Better than .500 overall.

smokeyrover said:

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lucasst33 said:

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What are your predictions for the mens basketball team this year? I am wanting to be optimistic because we have Devin Askew, new additions, etc

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I want to be optimistic too. Fox did nothing to couch his praise for Newell. Whole staff. That is somewhat surprising from a coach who is always measured it seems in managing expectations. So if the new Grant is a serviceable option (previously not projected as that kind of recruit) that cushions the loss of Celestine a bit. See him more as a 4 than a 3. Like I said, time for optimism (Askew realizes potential, Newell continues to surprise, Celestine recovers, Alajiki and Lars make strides)...not inconceivable this could be a tough team to play in February. Who knows if the record will show it, but could be much improved from the team in early December.

first five: Askew, Celestine, Alajiki, Newell, and Lars
bench: Brown, Clayton, 2K

Expect that is the core 8-man rotation with starting lineups in many combinations.

Spot minutes (love to be wrong) and a chance to earn more for Bowser, Roberson, Anyanwu, Okafor, and Hyder.
Will be really interesting, and key for 2023-24, to see how they do.

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I'd like to see Bowser or Roberson do something so that they can be reference points when Cal recruits future NorCal talent. I don't think it does much good for future recruiting to say that we landed a couple of NorCal guys who then got buried on the bench.

We have a really easy OOC schedule so far:

Ken Pom Rankings
UC Davis #184
Kansas State #77
UC San Diego #263
Southern #269
Texas State #178
TCU #16
Eastern Washington #192
Butler #130
Santa Clara #111
Texas-Arlington #270

So one projected NCAA Tournament team (TCU), 3 teams (KSU, Santa Clara and Butler) probably better than us and 6 scrubs.

Importantly, ALL the games (other than UC San Diego) are at Haas.

Winning 8 is not inconceivable. If we again win 5 in conference (maybe more of a stretch) than we will have won more games than last year ("progress") and Fox can point to how young his team is, the "increase" in attendance, the impact the practice facility would have, etc, ad nauseum.

Where is the Final Four in 2023?

calumnus said:

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We have a really easy OOC schedule so far:

Ken Pom Rankings
UC Davis #184
Kansas State #77
UC San Diego #263
Southern #269
Texas State #178
TCU #16
Eastern Washington #192
Butler #130
Santa Clara #111
Texas-Arlington #270

So one projected NCAA Tournament team (TCU), 3 teams (KSU, Santa Clara and Butler) probably better than us and 6 scrubs.

Importantly, ALL the games (other than UC San Diego) are at Haas.

Winning 8 is not inconceivable. If we again win 5 in conference (maybe more of a stretch) than we will have won more games than last year ("progress") and Fox can point to how young his team is, the "increase" in attendance, the impact the practice facility would have, etc, ad nauseum.

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Per the Cal coaches they like the schedule, because it gives them a chance to beat some tournament likely teams and they feel its a fair mix of confidence builders and challenges. Santa Clara is on the road as is TCU and then also either Iowa or Clemson. Curious as to Cal's Ken Pom ranking and how it compares to all of the preseason opponents. Thus how many games would Cal be favored in of the 11 OOC slated. This team feels like a 11th place team but hoping its a 9th place team Boy have our expectations fallen. A couple of coaches from other programs said the conference will be good and that the teams thought to be a bit down (ASU, Washington, WSU, Stanford, SC will be good), Seems clear that Ucla, Zona and Oregon will be the top 3, but just based on one HC thoughts and preseason publications.

16 days til early signing day! Think we'll get anyone?

4thGenCal said:

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calumnus said:

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We have a really easy OOC schedule so far:

Ken Pom Rankings
UC Davis #184
Kansas State #77
UC San Diego #263
Southern #269
Texas State #178
TCU #16
Eastern Washington #192
Butler #130
Santa Clara #111
Texas-Arlington #270

So one projected NCAA Tournament team (TCU), 3 teams (KSU, Santa Clara and Butler) probably better than us and 6 scrubs.

Importantly, ALL the games (other than UC San Diego) are at Haas.

Winning 8 is not inconceivable. If we again win 5 in conference (maybe more of a stretch) than we will have won more games than last year ("progress") and Fox can point to how young his team is, the "increase" in attendance, the impact the practice facility would have, etc, ad nauseum.

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Per the Cal coaches they like the schedule, because it gives them a chance to beat some tournament likely teams and they feel its a fair mix of confidence builders and challenges. Santa Clara is on the road as is TCU and then also either Iowa or Clemson. Curious as to Cal's Ken Pom ranking and how it compares to all of the preseason opponents. Thus how many games would Cal be favored in of the 11 OOC slated. This team feels like a 11th place team but hoping its a 9th place team Boy have our expectations fallen. A couple of coaches from other programs said the conference will be good and that the teams thought to be a bit down (ASU, Washington, WSU, Stanford, SC will be good), Seems clear that Ucla, Zona and Oregon will be the top 3, but just based on one HC thoughts and preseason publications.

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Ken Pom has Cal at #146.

4thGenCal said:

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calumnus said:

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We have a really easy OOC schedule so far:

Ken Pom Rankings
UC Davis #184
Kansas State #77
UC San Diego #263
Southern #269
Texas State #178
TCU #16
Eastern Washington #192
Butler #130
Santa Clara #111
Texas-Arlington #270

So one projected NCAA Tournament team (TCU), 3 teams (KSU, Santa Clara and Butler) probably better than us and 6 scrubs.

Importantly, ALL the games (other than UC San Diego) are at Haas.

Winning 8 is not inconceivable. If we again win 5 in conference (maybe more of a stretch) than we will have won more games than last year ("progress") and Fox can point to how young his team is, the "increase" in attendance, the impact the practice facility would have, etc, ad nauseum.

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Per the Cal coaches they like the schedule, because it gives them a chance to beat some tournament likely teams and they feel its a fair mix of confidence builders and challenges. Santa Clara is on the road as is TCU and then also either Iowa or Clemson. Curious as to Cal's Ken Pom ranking and how it compares to all of the preseason opponents. Thus how many games would Cal be favored in of the 11 OOC slated. This team feels like a 11th place team but hoping its a 9th place team Boy have our expectations fallen. A couple of coaches from other programs said the conference will be good and that the teams thought to be a bit down (ASU, Washington, WSU, Stanford, SC will be good), Seems clear that Ucla, Zona and Oregon will be the top 3, but just based on one HC thoughts and preseason publications.

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Ok, I should have been more skeptical about the online schedule I was looking at, as it seemed unlikely. Do we really have a road game at UCSD?

The Ken Pom rankings to start are based on last year's results, just to have a ranking (though they differ slightly, not sure why). Once there is enough new data so that every team is linked, the data from last year is eliminated. So obviously the rankings can be off wildly for a variety of reasons, but especially player (and coach) turnover. They are not predictions.

Cal is #146 (last year #142)

#207 in offensive efficiency (last year #222)

#98 in defensive efficiency (last year #84)

#340 in tempo (last year #330)

Last year we had the #73 toughest schedule overall, but our non-conference schedule was the #239 toughest.

What's interesting is if you go to buy tickets, the seat availability in every section around Haas is very low for almost every game-- it makes it seem like most seats are already purchased... but that can't be the case right? Last year Haas was not close to full

calumnus said:

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4thGenCal said:

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calumnus said:

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We have a really easy OOC schedule so far:

Ken Pom Rankings
UC Davis #184
Kansas State #77
UC San Diego #263
Southern #269
Texas State #178
TCU #16
Eastern Washington #192
Butler #130
Santa Clara #111
Texas-Arlington #270

So one projected NCAA Tournament team (TCU), 3 teams (KSU, Santa Clara and Butler) probably better than us and 6 scrubs.

Importantly, ALL the games (other than UC San Diego) are at Haas.

Winning 8 is not inconceivable. If we again win 5 in conference (maybe more of a stretch) than we will have won more games than last year ("progress") and Fox can point to how young his team is, the "increase" in attendance, the impact the practice facility would have, etc, ad nauseum.

---

Per the Cal coaches they like the schedule, because it gives them a chance to beat some tournament likely teams and they feel its a fair mix of confidence builders and challenges. Santa Clara is on the road as is TCU and then also either Iowa or Clemson. Curious as to Cal's Ken Pom ranking and how it compares to all of the preseason opponents. Thus how many games would Cal be favored in of the 11 OOC slated. This team feels like a 11th place team but hoping its a 9th place team Boy have our expectations fallen. A couple of coaches from other programs said the conference will be good and that the teams thought to be a bit down (ASU, Washington, WSU, Stanford, SC will be good), Seems clear that Ucla, Zona and Oregon will be the top 3, but just based on one HC thoughts and preseason publications.

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Ok, I should have been more skeptical about the online schedule I was looking at, as it seemed unlikely. Do we really have a road game at UCSD?

The Ken Pom rankings to start are based on last year's results, just to have a ranking (though they differ slightly, not sure why). Once there is enough new data so that every team is linked, the data from last year is eliminated. So obviously the rankings can be off wildly for a variety of reasons, but especially player (and coach) turnover. They are not predictions.

Cal is #146 (last year #142)

#207 in offensive efficiency (last year #222)

#98 in defensive efficiency (last year #84)

#340 in tempo (last year #330)

Last year we had the #73 toughest schedule overall, but our non-conference schedule was the #239 toughest.

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Thanks for the info as always - helpful to assess how the team did stack up and projections going into the season. Straight up team would project out to a 6-5 preseason record based on Ken Pom preseason rankings. However the hope is that Butler/Santa Clara games go toward Cal. Yes on the road game at UCSD (part of the home and away schedule agreement).

4thGenCal said:

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calumnus said:

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4thGenCal said:

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calumnus said:

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We have a really easy OOC schedule so far:

Ken Pom Rankings
UC Davis #184
Kansas State #77
UC San Diego #263
Southern #269
Texas State #178
TCU #16
Eastern Washington #192
Butler #130
Santa Clara #111
Texas-Arlington #270

So one projected NCAA Tournament team (TCU), 3 teams (KSU, Santa Clara and Butler) probably better than us and 6 scrubs.

Importantly, ALL the games (other than UC San Diego) are at Haas.

Winning 8 is not inconceivable. If we again win 5 in conference (maybe more of a stretch) than we will have won more games than last year ("progress") and Fox can point to how young his team is, the "increase" in attendance, the impact the practice facility would have, etc, ad nauseum.

---

Per the Cal coaches they like the schedule, because it gives them a chance to beat some tournament likely teams and they feel its a fair mix of confidence builders and challenges. Santa Clara is on the road as is TCU and then also either Iowa or Clemson. Curious as to Cal's Ken Pom ranking and how it compares to all of the preseason opponents. Thus how many games would Cal be favored in of the 11 OOC slated. This team feels like a 11th place team but hoping its a 9th place team Boy have our expectations fallen. A couple of coaches from other programs said the conference will be good and that the teams thought to be a bit down (ASU, Washington, WSU, Stanford, SC will be good), Seems clear that Ucla, Zona and Oregon will be the top 3, but just based on one HC thoughts and preseason publications.

---

Ok, I should have been more skeptical about the online schedule I was looking at, as it seemed unlikely. Do we really have a road game at UCSD?

The Ken Pom rankings to start are based on last year's results, just to have a ranking (though they differ slightly, not sure why). Once there is enough new data so that every team is linked, the data from last year is eliminated. So obviously the rankings can be off wildly for a variety of reasons, but especially player (and coach) turnover. They are not predictions.

Cal is #146 (last year #142)

#207 in offensive efficiency (last year #222)

#98 in defensive efficiency (last year #84)

#340 in tempo (last year #330)

Last year we had the #73 toughest schedule overall, but our non-conference schedule was the #239 toughest.

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Thanks for the info as always - helpful to assess how the team did stack up and projections going into the season. Straight up team would project out to a 6-5 preseason record based on Ken Pom preseason rankings. However the hope is that Butler/Santa Clara games go toward Cal. Yes on the road game at UCSD (part of the home and away schedule agreement).

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Strange to give UCSD a home and away. What is the logic behind that?

We needed the check.