Two very evenly matched teams, but Cal should be a 2 pt favorite playing at home.

Game of the century.

Econ141 said:

---

Game of the century.

---

Historic season is on the line!

We would have won if only askew was healthy! One more year!

After UT Arlington beat USF at the Hilltop last night, the Mavericks are up to 222 in Sagarin, and after yesterday's games, Cal is down to 241.

In Sagarin's Predictor model, according to Sagarin the best of his models for predicting the outcome of games, Cal is at 227, UT Arlington at 220. By that model, on a neutral court the Mavericks are favored by 0.25. Give Cal 3.08 points for home court and Cal is a 2.83 point favorite in Sagarin's model.

Even after last night's UT Arlington win, KenPom still has the Bears ranked higher, at 256 to the Maverick's 261.

NET rankings are more results oriented, so the Bears are currently 342, and last night's win moved the Mavericks up from 296 to 251.

But using the eyeball test, the Mavericks win over the Dons makes me think a Mavericks win over the Bears is a lot more likely than I thought before. The Mavericks record has made them look like a total cream puff, last night they looked better than some of the cream puffs we've lost to. I've gone from thinking tomorrow is 70% chance of a Cal victory to thinking more like 50% and wondering if I'm an optimist for thinking that.

Cal8285 said:

---

After UT Arlington beat USF at the Hilltop last night, the Mavericks are up to 222 in Sagarin, and after yesterday's games, Cal is down to 241.

In Sagarin's Predictor model, according to Sagarin the best of his models for predicting the outcome of games, Cal is at 227, UT Arlington at 220. By that model, on a neutral court the Mavericks are favored by 0.25. Give Cal 3.08 points for home court and Cal is a 2.83 point favorite in Sagarin's model.

Even after last night's UT Arlington win, KenPom still has the Bears ranked higher, at 256 to the Maverick's 261.

NET rankings are more results oriented, so the Bears are currently 342, and last night's win moved the Mavericks up from 296 to 251.

But using the eyeball test, the Mavericks win over the Dons makes me think a Mavericks win over the Bears is a lot more likely than I thought before. The Mavericks record has made them look like a total cream puff, last night they looked better than some of the cream puffs we've lost to. I've gone from thinking tomorrow is 70% chance of a Cal victory to thinking more like 50% and wondering if I'm an optimist for thinking that.

---

In order to produce early season rankings when there is not enough data, Sagarin and Ken Pom and (probably NET) incorporate data from the prior year. That is why I lean on the Recent ranking which is weighted towards the more recent (ie this season's) results early in the season.

Agree that the UT Arlington game is looking more challenging after they beat USF.

looking at their stats, their PF is their leader in points, FG%, rebounds and assists

given we don't have a true PF, he looks like a tough matchup for us defensively (see our last game vs SC's PF)

they play 10 deep, are long at guard and they get lots of steals.

however their tallest player is 6-9

this sounds like a bad matchup for us as i expect a lot of TOs, and if Askew can't play, it doesn't look positive

although Lars will have a clear height advantage i expect them to throw double and triple teams at him every time he touches the ball

they shoot 29% from 3 and only 65% from the line

ESPN predicts a 67% chance of a Bear victory, but if Askew is out, i think this drops dramatically

an optimist says Cal wins in a dog fight, a realist says we won't have Askew and its not looking good

Cal8285 said:

---

After UT Arlington beat USF at the Hilltop last night, the Mavericks are up to 222 in Sagarin, and after yesterday's games, Cal is down to 241.

In Sagarin's Predictor model, according to Sagarin the best of his models for predicting the outcome of games, Cal is at 227, UT Arlington at 220. By that model, on a neutral court the Mavericks are favored by 0.25. Give Cal 3.08 points for home court and Cal is a 2.83 point favorite in Sagarin's model.

Even after last night's UT Arlington win, KenPom still has the Bears ranked higher, at 256 to the Maverick's 261.

NET rankings are more results oriented, so the Bears are currently 342, and last night's win moved the Mavericks up from 296 to 251.

But using the eyeball test, the Mavericks win over the Dons makes me think a Mavericks win over the Bears is a lot more likely than I thought before. The Mavericks record has made them look like a total cream puff, last night they looked better than some of the cream puffs we've lost to. I've gone from thinking tomorrow is 70% chance of a Cal victory to thinking more like 50% and wondering if I'm an optimist for thinking that.

---

What do you see? Must see TV.

Sagarin was good at identifying that as a win.

Our only other projected win now is OSU at Haas.

There is the possibility we improve even while losing.

There is also the possibility we get worse as Fox loses the team.