Is it possible to get back to postseason play next year?

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eastcoastcal
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10:27p, 2/27/23
I know, getting ahead of ourselves before we even hire the next coach.

But it's an honest question. With a new coach and 4? 5? scholarships open, 2 of which will go to the incoming high schoolers, is it possible that a new coach could bring in 3 highly rated enough transfers to get us back to perhaps the NIT? I am guessing NCAA tournament is too difficult (though Iowa state did it, going from 2-22 to a sweet 16 run last year) but what do you guys think the ceiling could be next year?

And yeah I realize this is probably too premature of a thread, but there's nothing really worth talking about now until we hire our next coach
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HoopDreams
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12:33a, 2/28/23
if the new coach can retain the key current players as a base, and then bring in talented transfers we have a shot. with the transfer portal a team can rebuild a lot faster. of course if the new coach can get some NIL support that would help a lot

The freshmen are keepers.

Newell is a good player that will get better with a year under his belt. Good pullup jumper, and hoops IQ, and a gamer. He needs to put on some good weight and work on his 3.

Okofor improved near the end of the season. He is strong and explosive, quick off his feet and has some post moves and a shot out to 15 feet (when he doesn't rush it). He will improve defensively with a year of experience. We also need his size as the only legit PF/C on the team.

Sam is solid, and Bowser is the ideal size for the 2, and showed he can shoot it. We absolutely need more shooters.

I was not very impressed with Askew, but he's an alpha dog and teams need that. We will see if he can make others better, although I'm not sure he'll be back (no inside info, just a feeling)

A big question is whether Celestine will be back AND healthy. He was fully engaged with the team, and if he can get back fully healthy he could be our best player offensively and defensively.

I like Obinna, although he hardly got any PT. Undersized PF, but scappy. He gets tough rebounds and put backs, plays some tough defense (he was the only player who could successful defend WSU's 6-11 monster), hits his FTs, and even showed a pull up 12 footer. I expect to see him get more PT next season.

Marsalis Roberson is a question mark for me. He's a +athlete but not yet a strong defender. I'd also expect him to rebound better. He needs to be a lock down defender and strong rebounder to justify his PT, as his offense isn't there and he needs to completely rebuild his shot, so I think it won't be until at least his junior year that he should be shooting much.

Incoming freshmen Brown looks like a nice player who will be in the rotation. I'm not impressed with our incoming big, but we will need his size so hopefully he can be a role player his first year.





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HearstMining
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8:01a, 2/28/23
HoopDreams has produced a great assessment of the team. I'll add that the team desperately needs a point guard to replace Brown - and it's not Askew.
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oskidunker
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In reply to HearstMining • 8:10a, 2/28/23
HearstMining said:
HoopDreams has produced a great assessment of the team. I'll add that the team desperately needs a point guard to replace Brown - and it's not Askew.
Yes, it could be done but we need a point guard who can make free throws.
Go Bears!
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bluesaxe
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In reply to eastcoastcal • 8:55a, 2/28/23
eastcoastcal said:
I know, getting ahead of ourselves before we even hire the next coach.

But it's an honest question. With a new coach and 4? 5? scholarships open, 2 of which will go to the incoming high schoolers, is it possible that a new coach could bring in 3 highly rated enough transfers to get us back to perhaps the NIT? I am guessing NCAA tournament is too difficult (though Iowa state did it, going from 2-22 to a sweet 16 run last year) but what do you guys think the ceiling could be next year?

And yeah I realize this is probably too premature of a thread, but there's nothing really worth talking about now until we hire our next coach
I think it's highly unlikely. It's hard to even venture a guess without knowing that the IS a new coach and who it is. More likely that if they actually hire someone good it takes 2 years to get to a competitive level again.
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socaltownie
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9:17a, 2/28/23
Absent a point guard, no. And it has to be PG who is at a minimum 3 stars or better yet 4. There are a FEW diamonds in the rough like Jorge but very rare.

And it has to be that level of skills because it is just brutally hard to win in a P5 conference with the talent deficit Cal has.
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89Bear
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In reply to eastcoastcal • 9:35a, 2/28/23
eastcoastcal said:
I know, getting ahead of ourselves before we even hire the next coach.

But it's an honest question. With a new coach and 4? 5? scholarships open, 2 of which will go to the incoming high schoolers, is it possible that a new coach could bring in 3 highly rated enough transfers to get us back to perhaps the NIT? I am guessing NCAA tournament is too difficult (though Iowa state did it, going from 2-22 to a sweet 16 run last year) but what do you guys think the ceiling could be next year?

And yeah I realize this is probably too premature of a thread, but there's nothing really worth talking about now until we hire our next coach
It's a good topic to discuss.
My initial reaction is, no.
The program has a lot of work to do. In my opinion, an effective NIL program will need to get going, like in football. I think that will take time. My guess is that recruits who will move the needle, will need that NIL incentive to come to a program that has been destroyed.
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PtownBear1
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9:39a, 2/28/23
Historically, I would expect it to take many years to dig out of the crater Knowlton and Williams created, but with NIL, I think it's totally possible in one season if we hire a desirable coach. I know I'm ready to start contributing to CA Legends for basketball if and when that happens, and I'm sure there are many others in the same boat. Unlike football, we would really only need to entice a handful of stud players to join to make the postseason.
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sandiegobears
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10:53a, 2/28/23
It's highly dependent on not only the coach, but what would get the team into post-season play? I just looked and there were no .500 teams that made the NIT last year, and many were 20-10 range. 20 wins seems well outside the possibility of reality, almost unprecedented turnaround. CBI might take .500 teams (can't seem to find a good source for 2022 on that without looking up every team's record). So at least a 500 record means at least 12 to 13 more wins than this season. I didn't see enough competitive games this year to warrant such a chance, even when Askew was in there. Celestine is unproven (to me) until he plays consistently. Combine that with the loss of effectively two starters (Brown, Lars), plus KK, plus the likely transfer or two that will leave, and it seems highly unlikely unless a major transfer or two into the program happens. Can they be better? No doubt. Can they make any post-season tourney? Probably not. But hey, I'd like to be proven wrong, we could all use some positive vibes in this program.
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KoreAmBear
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In reply to eastcoastcal • 11:16a, 2/28/23
It's possible and along with HoopDreams' solid analysis (I am not that high on Bowser though -- good kid but I don't see a lot of basketball instincts IMHO) if the new coach can bring in some guys (either recruits or portal transfers) we could be an NIT type team. That's the one thing I think Pasternack is good at, the sales job, which is a big part of being a D1 college coach. I'm sure he put on nice pitch for Andre. UCSB has some really good guards, and heck, they go to a tough UC so that could work.
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stu
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11:16a, 2/28/23
I think with better than average coaching and little time lost to injuries we could have a much better OOC record. It would be a stretch but with a couple of portal players and a little luck it wouldn't be impossible to finish around the middle of the conference. That would be enough to be considered by the NIT.
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stu
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11:18a, 2/28/23
oops, duplicate
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BeachedBear
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In reply to HoopDreams • 12:07p, 2/28/23
HoopDreams said:
if the new coach can retain the key current players as a base, and then bring in talented transfers we have a shot. with the transfer portal a team can rebuild a lot faster. of course if the new coach can get some NIL support that would help a lot

The freshmen are keepers.

Newell is a good player that will get better with a year under his belt. Good pullup jumper, and hoops IQ, and a gamer. He needs to put on some good weight and work on his 3.

Okofor improved near the end of the season. He is strong and explosive, quick off his feet and has some post moves and a shot out to 15 feet (when he doesn't rush it). He will improve defensively with a year of experience. We also need his size as the only legit PF/C on the team.

Sam is solid, and Bowser is the ideal size for the 2, and showed he can shoot it. We absolutely need more shooters.

I was not very impressed with Askew, but he's an alpha dog and teams need that. We will see if he can make others better, although I'm not sure he'll be back (no inside info, just a feeling)

A big question is whether Celestine will be back AND healthy. He was fully engaged with the team, and if he can get back fully healthy he could be our best player offensively and defensively.

I like Obinna, although he hardly got any PT. Undersized PF, but scappy. He gets tough rebounds and put backs, plays some tough defense (he was the only player who could successful defend WSU's 6-11 monster), hits his FTs, and even showed a pull up 12 footer. I expect to see him get more PT next season.

Marsalis Roberson is a question mark for me. He's a +athlete but not yet a strong defender. I'd also expect him to rebound better. He needs to be a lock down defender and strong rebounder to justify his PT, as his offense isn't there and he needs to completely rebuild his shot, so I think it won't be until at least his junior year that he should be shooting much.

Incoming freshmen Brown looks like a nice player who will be in the rotation. I'm not impressed with our incoming big, but we will need his size so hopefully he can be a role player his first year.





Excellent analysis HD (as usual). But other than maybe Newell, I think the new coach needs to bring in FOUR starters including a plus point guard.
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calumnus
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In reply to BeachedBear • 12:46p, 2/28/23
BeachedBear said:
HoopDreams said:
if the new coach can retain the key current players as a base, and then bring in talented transfers we have a shot. with the transfer portal a team can rebuild a lot faster. of course if the new coach can get some NIL support that would help a lot

The freshmen are keepers.

Newell is a good player that will get better with a year under his belt. Good pullup jumper, and hoops IQ, and a gamer. He needs to put on some good weight and work on his 3.

Okofor improved near the end of the season. He is strong and explosive, quick off his feet and has some post moves and a shot out to 15 feet (when he doesn't rush it). He will improve defensively with a year of experience. We also need his size as the only legit PF/C on the team.

Sam is solid, and Bowser is the ideal size for the 2, and showed he can shoot it. We absolutely need more shooters.

I was not very impressed with Askew, but he's an alpha dog and teams need that. We will see if he can make others better, although I'm not sure he'll be back (no inside info, just a feeling)

A big question is whether Celestine will be back AND healthy. He was fully engaged with the team, and if he can get back fully healthy he could be our best player offensively and defensively.

I like Obinna, although he hardly got any PT. Undersized PF, but scappy. He gets tough rebounds and put backs, plays some tough defense (he was the only player who could successful defend WSU's 6-11 monster), hits his FTs, and even showed a pull up 12 footer. I expect to see him get more PT next season.

Marsalis Roberson is a question mark for me. He's a +athlete but not yet a strong defender. I'd also expect him to rebound better. He needs to be a lock down defender and strong rebounder to justify his PT, as his offense isn't there and he needs to completely rebuild his shot, so I think it won't be until at least his junior year that he should be shooting much.

Incoming freshmen Brown looks like a nice player who will be in the rotation. I'm not impressed with our incoming big, but we will need his size so hopefully he can be a role player his first year.





Excellent analysis HD (as usual). But other than maybe Newell, I think the new coach needs to bring in FOUR starters including a plus point guard.


With the right coach, the portal and sizable NIL help and maybe some luck that is definitely possible, but that all that happens in year 1 is not probable.

We did have a pretty big turnaround from Braun to Monty, but that was a classic "good recruiter, but doesn't know how to utilize his roster" who had a great roster to a HOF Xs and Os coach who could coach them up.

I'll be happy if we hire a good young, positive coach and, with the first class, it is obvious the rebuilding has begun and there is a reason for optimism, which I have not had since Fox was hired.
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stu
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In reply to BeachedBear • 2:27p, 2/28/23
BeachedBear said:
Excellent analysis HD (as usual). But other than maybe Newell, I think the new coach needs to bring in FOUR starters including a plus point guard.
Agree about HD's analysis.

I think a good big and a good PG would make everyone else look better. And Askew could be that PG since I wouldn't say coaching up PGs is Fox's strength.
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dimitrig
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12:03a, 3/1/23

Sign some top recruits and it can be done.

All we need is our own Fab Five:

The class consisted of Detroit natives Chris Webber (#4) and Jalen Rose (#5), Chicago native Juwan Howard (#25), and two recruits from Texas: Plano's Jimmy King (#24) and Austin's Ray Jackson (#21).

The Fab Five were the first team in NCAA history to compete in the championship game with all-freshman starters.

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southseasbear
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In reply to dimitrig • 5:33a, 3/1/23
dimitrig said:

Sign some top recruits and it can be done.

All we need is our own Fab Five:

The class consisted of Detroit natives Chris Webber (#4) and Jalen Rose (#5), Chicago native Juwan Howard (#25), and two recruits from Texas: Plano's Jimmy King (#24) and Austin's Ray Jackson (#21).

The Fab Five were the first team in NCAA history to compete in the championship game with all-freshman starters.

Is there a coach out there who is (a) able to recruit 5 great players, and (b) willing to come to Cal?
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sluggo
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8:36a, 3/1/23
To the original question, anything is possible given a new coach and the almost free movement of players.

This season was clearly going to be a disaster once Kelly transferred and Celestine got hurt leaving no #1, #2, or #3 scorer. This was made worse by Fox's dysfunctional offense. Here is how I see the current players in terms of filling those top 3 scoring roles.

Celestine - Best returning scorer if he regains what he had before he was injured. Last year he faded when forced to take on higher usage after Kelly's injury and ended at 42% shooting, 34% from three, which is not great for a #1 scorer. But I think he may have been tired after being injured in previous seasons.
Newell - Played great considering he had basically not played for two years. Shooting only 40% and 28% from three. Looks to me like he shoots on the way down, could benefit from working with a shooting coach. Good ball handler for his height. Good athlete. Needs strength and experience. Has some potential.
Rodney Brown - Along with Celestine the only recruit that I have been excited about in the Fox era. Can shoot and create off the dribble at about 6'6'' with long arms. Tons of potential and plays against top competition in Southern California. I think he will play in the NBA some day. Thin. Will he come to Cal to play for a new coach?
Alajiki - 50% from three last year was due to small sample size, but 36% this year is respectable. Plays with only one hand and can't dribble, needs skills development in the worst way. Or maybe he can just be a spot up shooter if the team improves.
Okafor - Great footwork as a freshman, which gets him in good positions, but his shot is broken, including 53% from line. Needs skills development. In high school looked quicker, but maybe that was the competition. Very powerful now, seems like he will be a physical force.
Askew - Inefficient scorer (38% overall, 30% from three). Lacks athleticism. Peaked in high school. Hopefully will shoot half as much next year. Good free throw shooter.
Bowser, Roberson, Anyanwu, Curtis - Lack scoring ability at the pac12 level. Need to recruit better.

So if two transfer scorers can be found, Rodney Brown actually attends, and none of the better players transfer, then maybe .500 next year.
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dimitrig
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In reply to sluggo • 10:13a, 3/1/23
sluggo said:
To the original question, anything is possible given a new coach and the almost free movement of players.

This season was clearly going to be a disaster once Kelly transferred and Celestine got hurt leaving no #1, #2, or #3 scorer. This was made worse by Fox's dysfunctional offense. Here is how I see the current players in terms of filling those top 3 scoring roles.

Celestine - Best returning scorer if he regains what he had before he was injured. Last year he faded when forced to take on higher usage after Kelly's injury and ended at 42% shooting, 34% from three, which is not great for a #1 scorer. But I think he may have been tired after being injured in previous seasons.
Newell - Played great considering he had basically not played for two years. Shooting only 40% and 28% from three. Looks to me like he shoots on the way down, could benefit from working with a shooting coach. Good ball handler for his height. Good athlete. Needs strength and experience. Has some potential.
Rodney Brown - Along with Celestine the only recruit that I have been excited about in the Fox era. Can shoot and create off the dribble at about 6'6'' with long arms. Tons of potential and plays against top competition in Southern California. I think he will play in the NBA some day. Thin. Will he come to Cal to play for a new coach?
Alajiki - 50% from three last year was due to small sample size, but 36% this year is respectable. Plays with only one hand and can't dribble, needs skills development in the worst way. Or maybe he can just be a spot up shooter if the team improves.
Okafor - Great footwork as a freshman, which gets him in good positions, but his shot is broken, including 53% from line. Needs skills development. In high school looked quicker, but maybe that was the competition. Very powerful now, seems like he will be a physical force.
Askew - Inefficient scorer (38% overall, 30% from three). Lacks athleticism. Peaked in high school. Hopefully will shoot half as much next year. Good free throw shooter.
Bowser, Roberson, Anyanwu, Curtis - Lack scoring ability at the pac12 level. Need to recruit better.

So if two transfer scorers can be found, Rodney Brown actually attends, and none of the better players transfer, then maybe .500 next year.


If by transfer scorers you mean Kilgore and Carlisle types then yes but the cupboard is bare.

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wifeisafurd
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In reply to eastcoastcal • 10:40a, 3/1/23
eastcoastcal said:
I know, getting ahead of ourselves before we even hire the next coach.

But it's an honest question. With a new coach and 4? 5? scholarships open, 2 of which will go to the incoming high schoolers, is it possible that a new coach could bring in 3 highly rated enough transfers to get us back to perhaps the NIT? I am guessing NCAA tournament is too difficult (though Iowa state did it, going from 2-22 to a sweet 16 run last year) but what do you guys think the ceiling could be next year?

And yeah I realize this is probably too premature of a thread, but there's nothing really worth talking about now until we hire our next coach
Not unless you hire a Coach Prime equivalent. A couple of top players can change things quickly in basketball.

There is a major talent gap left on the present team to expect post-season the first year w/o a massive talent infusion.
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Oakbear
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11:13a, 3/1/23
"There is a major talent gap left on the present team to expect post-season the first year w/o a massive talent infusion.


there is an even larger coaching gap .. a few key players added to the mix with high level coaching might surprise
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Bobodeluxe
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12:45p, 3/1/23
What would the Vegas odds be for such a transformation?
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bearmanpg
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1:07p, 3/1/23
I don't see any current player being good enough to HAVE to keep...yes, there are a few that would be good to keep but NONE of them can't be replaced with an equal or better transfer or freshman....Newell and Celestine would be nice....MFer is leaving (?) the cupboard bare....Let's just hope he leaves, as that, by itself, will improve Cal's lot by more than any combination of players could....
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HoopDreams
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1:41p, 3/1/23
I like the discussion!

Many good perspectives all around and I can't say any of them are wrong, but will address a few:

I was skeptical when we signed Bowser and Roberson. I knew they would be well coached, good teammates with high character and academics. Loved that they were local coached by a trusted Cal alum.

Boswer wasn't dominant is HS and Roberson's game didn't translate well to D1 due to his poor shooting

Both are good size for the 2.

Bowser showed flashes his first year but had the bad concussion on the dunk and we never saw him again. This season he was buried on the depth charts and only got spot minutes.

But as we needed guards he got more PT and with it gained confidence. In the last part of the season he showed me he is a shooter, and as I've said many times , the game of basketball is a whole lot easier if you can shoot

Therefore I think he can be a legit 2 that will be more experienced, more confident and hopefully stronger for his junior/senior years

I think Okofor was an under the radar gem. He has a college ready body as a freshmen and is explosive off his feet. He showed some strong offensive scoring ability, including shooting to 15 feet.

I don't worry about his FT shooting as a freshmen. His release is fine and will improve. Finally, he's got an alpha personality which every team needs.

The amount of progress he's made has been astounding and with more experience, especially on defense can definitely become a Pac12 starter. Will that be in 1 year or 2 years?
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eastcoastcal
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In reply to HoopDreams • 4:19p, 3/1/23
HoopDreams said:
I like the discussion!

Many good perspectives all around and I can't say any of them are wrong, but will address a few:

I was skeptical when we signed Bowser and Roberson. I knew they would be well coached, good teammates with high character and academics. Loved that they were local coached by a trusted Cal alum.

Boswer wasn't dominant is HS and Roberson's game didn't translate well to D1 due to his poor shooting

Both are good size for the 2.

Bowser showed flashes his first year but had the bad concussion on the dunk and we never saw him again. This season he was buried on the depth charts and only got spot minutes.

But as we needed guards he got more PT and with it gained confidence. In the last part of the season he showed me he is a shooter, and as I've said many times , the game of basketball is a whole lot easier if you can shoot

Therefore I think he can be a legit 2 that will be more experienced, more confident and hopefully stronger for his junior/senior years

I think Okofor was an under the radar gem. He has a college ready body as a freshmen and is explosive off his feet. He showed some strong offensive scoring ability, including shooting to 15 feet.

I don't worry about his FT shooting as a freshmen. His release is fine and will improve. Finally, he's got an alpha personality which every team needs.

The amount of progress he's made has been astounding and with more experience, especially on defense can definitely become a Pac12 starter. Will that be in 1 year or 2 years?
great points. I recall a post at the beginning of the season stating that an NBA exec (nuggets? dont remember) said ND was the only NBA potential on the roster after seeing a practice. Or something like that. I like ND and Newell as roster pieces. Truthfully, the rest of the returning guys (except Celestine) are decent only relative to where we stand, I personally think if we were viewing these guys after having Jaylen/Rabb's roster, we wouldn't think many of them deserved a spot. My only point being, there really is a dearth of talent-- truthfully most of our guys are middle/end of the bench type players. Maybe askew is best suited as "leader of the second unit" type of thing on a good team.

Ideally, on a good team, we'd have ND & Newell returning, Celestine as a 3rd scorer, Askew leading a second unit or coming off the bench, and entirely new players other than that. Would love to see us land two guys who can create their own shot and work off the dribble from the portal.

On that note, do any of you recall how good the portal talent was last offseason? I hope there are some good players we can get after! We did manage to land Askew (who after this season, I realize was severely overrated by the recruiting services coming out of high school) so I hope we can find some 4 star talent who is willing to come here
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wifeisafurd
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In reply to Oakbear • 4:33p, 3/1/23
Oakbear said:
"There is a major talent gap left on the present team to expect post-season the first year w/o a massive talent infusion.


there is an even larger coaching gap .. a few key players added to the mix with high level coaching might surprise
yes, didn't mean to suggest that coaching doesn't need an upgrade. I'm a worried on that count with JK making the call on a new coach.
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sluggo
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In reply to HoopDreams • 4:46p, 3/1/23
HoopDreams said:
I like the discussion!

Many good perspectives all around and I can't say any of them are wrong, but will address a few:

I was skeptical when we signed Bowser and Roberson. I knew they would be well coached, good teammates with high character and academics. Loved that they were local coached by a trusted Cal alum.

Boswer wasn't dominant is HS and Roberson's game didn't translate well to D1 due to his poor shooting

Both are good size for the 2.

Bowser showed flashes his first year but had the bad concussion on the dunk and we never saw him again. This season he was buried on the depth charts and only got spot minutes.

But as we needed guards he got more PT and with it gained confidence. In the last part of the season he showed me he is a shooter, and as I've said many times , the game of basketball is a whole lot easier if you can shoot

Therefore I think he can be a legit 2 that will be more experienced, more confident and hopefully stronger for his junior/senior years

I think Okofor was an under the radar gem. He has a college ready body as a freshmen and is explosive off his feet. He showed some strong offensive scoring ability, including shooting to 15 feet.

I don't worry about his FT shooting as a freshmen. His release is fine and will improve. Finally, he's got an alpha personality which every team needs.

The amount of progress he's made has been astounding and with more experience, especially on defense can definitely become a Pac12 starter. Will that be in 1 year or 2 years?
Let's be real. Bowser is shooting 34%, 28% from three. He averages 8 points per 40 minutes. He shoots infrequently, and it rarely goes in. Even grading on a curve he can't score.

Okafor misses almost everything outside of layups. I bet he is shooting 10% outside of eight feet. I like his footwork, but his game is not there yet. The idea that he is going to play in the NBA is absurd. Even Ivan Rabb could not play in the NBA at 6'9''ish, and there is no universe where Okafor becomes as good as Rabb. He can be a valuable player as soon as next year, but he has his limits.

What Cal needs are two efficient scorers as transfers. Then all the other players can fill into their lesser roles. I see six pac12 capable players and the other four, while not capable, are all good enough athletes to give hustle minutes. Askew, Clayton and Shepherd are all very low efficiency players. Unfortunately we knew what we were getting from their previous stops. I hope the incoming coach considers shooting percentages.
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HoopDreams
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In reply to sluggo • 5:52p, 3/1/23
Yes, neither bowser or ND are there yet. In the case of bowser I would have agreed with you 3/4s through the season but he showed in the end of the season when he was given consistent minutes and gained more confidence

Ditto for ND. About halfway through the season the light turned on (unfortunately not on defense yet)

I'm going on what I see on the court in terms of a steep improvement curve and potential, not season stats

But projecting players is a risky business, and you could be entirely right

And yes, I too want a 6-11 athletic freak like WSU Gueye to transfer to Cal. If that happened we would instantly be a different team



sluggo said:
HoopDreams said:
I like the discussion!

Many good perspectives all around and I can't say any of them are wrong, but will address a few:

I was skeptical when we signed Bowser and Roberson. I knew they would be well coached, good teammates with high character and academics. Loved that they were local coached by a trusted Cal alum.

Boswer wasn't dominant is HS and Roberson's game didn't translate well to D1 due to his poor shooting

Both are good size for the 2.

Bowser showed flashes his first year but had the bad concussion on the dunk and we never saw him again. This season he was buried on the depth charts and only got spot minutes.

But as we needed guards he got more PT and with it gained confidence. In the last part of the season he showed me he is a shooter, and as I've said many times , the game of basketball is a whole lot easier if you can shoot

Therefore I think he can be a legit 2 that will be more experienced, more confident and hopefully stronger for his junior/senior years

I think Okofor was an under the radar gem. He has a college ready body as a freshmen and is explosive off his feet. He showed some strong offensive scoring ability, including shooting to 15 feet.

I don't worry about his FT shooting as a freshmen. His release is fine and will improve. Finally, he's got an alpha personality which every team needs.

The amount of progress he's made has been astounding and with more experience, especially on defense can definitely become a Pac12 starter. Will that be in 1 year or 2 years?
Let's be real. Bowser is shooting 34%, 28% from three. He averages 8 points per 40 minutes. He shoots infrequently, and it rarely goes in. Even grading on a curve he can't score.

Okafor misses almost everything outside of layups. I bet he is shooting 10% outside of eight feet. I like his footwork, but his game is not there yet. The idea that he is going to play in the NBA is absurd. Even Ivan Rabb could not play in the NBA at 6'9''ish, and there is no universe where Okafor becomes as good as Rabb. He can be a valuable player as soon as next year, but he has his limits.

What Cal needs are two efficient scorers as transfers. Then all the other players can fill into their lesser roles. I see six pac12 capable players and the other four, while not capable, are all good enough athletes to give hustle minutes. Askew, Clayton and Shepherd are all very low efficiency players. Unfortunately we knew what we were getting from their previous stops. I hope the incoming coach considers shooting percentages.
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SFCityBear
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8:05p, 3/2/23
Making the post season next year would be a huge stretch. If Fox is retained, it is no way. And there hasn't been a newly-hired coach at Cal in many years who brought in a top recruiting class his first class, mostly because he has a much shorter time than all of the coaches who remained in their jobs a the other schools. From the time he is hired (this month at the earliest), he will have only a few short months to recruit his first class, while his competitor coaches, will have been recruiting their targets for many more months and even years, and will already have signed most of the best ones. Cuonzo failed to get any top recruits in his first class. Wyking did better in his first class, but still got only one top 100 player, Bradley.

Another difficult thing for a new coach is if he inherits a roster with too many openings. Fox had 5 scholarships to use for his first class, and it is hard enough to land one or two good players. Landing five for a school whose best years are too long ago for a 17 or 18 year old to remember or know much about, is very difficult for any coach, let alone a newly-hired one. Unless the new coach has some recruits who he has been selling for years to play for him, he will likely not get many. In retrospect, both Wyking, who also had 5 scholarships to use in his first year, would have done better not to give scholarships to less than marginal recruits, and held them for their 2nd class, when they could find better talent to pursue. Winston, McCullough, Klonaras, Again, in retrospect, a first-year coach should not be taking too many projects in his first class, like Lars, Kuany, or injured players like Gordon and Thorpe, or one dimensional players. Just hold those scholarships out until year two, when you will have had time to better evaluate your targets, and time to sell them on coming to Cal.


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HoopDreams
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10:24p, 3/2/23
SF

Very good post, but I'm assuming we will have a new coach, and the difference with prior years were no transfers were immediately eligible

That means the new coach can use most of those open schollies on experienced transfers who can have an immediate impact. Hopefully the new coach will benefit by some NIL also

Of course I'm taking an optimistic view of the OP's question, and everyone else who responded can be entirely right and I could be entirely wrong

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calumnus
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In reply to HoopDreams • 2:25a, 3/3/23
HoopDreams said:
SF

Very good post, but I'm assuming we will have a new coach, and the difference with prior years were no transfers were immediately eligible

That means the new coach can use most of those open schollies on experienced transfers who can have an immediate impact. Hopefully the new coach will benefit by some NIL also

Of course I'm taking an optimistic view of the OP's question, and everyone else who responded can be entirely right and I could be entirely wrong



Agreed. The OP's question was is it "possible" fir a new coach to get us to the postseason. The transfer portal and NIL make a quick turnaround possible where it wasn't before. Not probable, but possible.
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