oski003 said:
01Bear said:
sluggo said:
HearstMining said:
I think Jaylon will be a great pick for some team. I don't entirely understand the the NBA's obsession with taking these one-and-done kids. I can only attribute it to FOMO. How many of them underachieve, are traded or don't get resigned after their rookie contract, and then bounce from team to team for a few years? Meanwhile, there are three and four-year college players who have actually been coached, had to earn playing time, are more physically mature, and maybe picked up some real education and leadership skills. The Sac Kings' Keegan Murray has done a great job for them. I'd be ecstatic if the Kings drafted Jaylon.
You don't think it is because the best players are one-and-done or zero-and-done? Take the all-pro first to third teams. Four players with zero college, six played one year, three played two years, and only Stephen Curry and Jalen Brunson played three years, both because they were undersized.The point is not to draft adequate players but rather to get stars. If it does not work out, no problem, there is another draft next year.
I like Tyson. I was early on the bandwagon, probably alone here at the time, of him being a first round pick. Which is about 50-50. And there is some chance that he will be an NBA rotation player. But if I am a GM I am swinging for the fences and only drafting a player like Tyson if I can't think of anyone potentially better.
I see your point about superstars but disagree that NBA GMs are looking to "swing for the fences." To start, the conventional wisdom is that this year's draft is very light on superstar but is deep with potential key role players. As a lifelong Lakers fan, I can attest to how important key role players are for teams with championship aspirations. The Lakers are saddled with Anthony Davis's $300 million max contract and will likely be saddled with another huge contract for a past his prime LeBron James. These two players will eat up well over half of the Lakers's salary cap space for the foreseeable future. They don't have enough space to bring in any other superstars without (1) running out of cap space and/or (2) filling out their roster with the dregs of the NBA. Either way, they're unlikely to win another championship so long as LeBron and AD are on the team. This is a roundabout way of saying that IMHO, the most valuable players are not the superstars (who get max contracts) but the role players who play for contracts worth one quarter to one-half of the max contracts.
While any team with championship aspirations need to have superstars, teams also need really good role players to help take the pressure off the superstars. With the way the CBA is structured, the (all but automatic) max contracts, and the salary cap(s), this means championship teams are going to be hunting for the role players who outperform their contracts. Moreover, guys on smaller contracts (especially those on expiring deals) are much more easily moved in trades. This is a boon not just for championship contenders but also for rebuilding teams looking to collect draft picks.
As mentioned above, the current assessment of this year's draft class is that it's light on superstars but possibly long on depth (read: role players). Jaylon is likely not being looked at as a potential superstar, but rather as a future key role player. While I would love to see him prove the NBA scouts wrong and turn into a superstar, more likely than not, his future is as a 3-and-D wing who can both create his own shot and catch-and-shoot. In today's NBA, they types of players are in high demand. If Jaylon succeeds in making this his niche, he's likely to play for a good 10+ years and make in the neighborhood of $100 million in NBA lifetime earnings.
Ultimately, I think this year's draft is a gift for GMs. They need lots of guys who make $10-$20 million a year who can make shots and play hard-nosed D without making any All-NBA or even All Star teams. This draft could prove to be loaded with these types of players.
Anthony Davis makes roughly the same amount as Kyrie Irving, Gobert, and Luka Dokic at 40. Jaylen Brown and ANT make roughly the same as LeBron at 50. KAT makes the most per year at 55 million. Tatum only made 30 million but will likely make ~55m after this season.
Anthony Davis made all NBA second team. LeBron made all NBA third team, so they are both top 15 players.
I'm not saying teams don't want superstar players. Rather, with the current CBA, teams have a greater need to fill out their roster with good key role players on $10-20 million contracts. I'm not as familiar with other teams, but LeBron and AD's contracts ate up about 2/3 of the salary cap this year. The Lakers also had four key role player contracts in the $10-20 million range this year, which totaled about 1/3 of the team's cap space. That means the Lakers already hit the salary cap with only half of the team's required roster slots filled.
In order to minimize the luxury tax, let alone prevent going into the first (or worse, the dreaded second) apron, the Lakers could only fill out their remaining roster spots with players making under $5 million. Since the Lakers wound up filling all 15 roster spots, that meant they added 9 players, of whom 3 were on rookie contracts, by the end of the year. Of the remaining six players, one was signed for $1.5 million after the trade deadline and two signed for close to the veteran's minimum. Two players split the mid-level exception. The last player signed the bi-annual exception. With the possible exception of the two players who split the MLE and the post-trade deadline pickup signed off waivers (a total of three players), none of the remaining (six) players played key roles for the team.
Since most championship contenders have one or two players on max or supermax contracts, which eat up about 60-70% of a team's salary cap, they're as constrained as the Lakers in how they can allocate their salary cap space. This means key role players (those making in the $10-20 million) are at a premium. If a team can lock in a key role player on a rookie scale contract, so much the better, as it reduces the salary cap hit, not just for the duration of the rookie contract but even in subsequent contracts (especially early Bird and Bird rights contracts).
Swinging for the fences (and connecting), OTOH, would mean a team would likely have to sign a rookie contract extension that eats up 25%-30% of a team's cap space (assuming the player was a first round draft pick). Assuming that team already had two max or supermax contracts, that means about 85-100% of a team's salary cap space would be tied up on three players. Assuming only about 85% is tied to the three players, that leaves enough space for one key role player contract in the $10-20 million range before hitting the salary cap. For a championship contender, that means filling out the rest of the roster with the MLE, rookie, and minimum contracts. That kind of roster is too top heavy and will struggle down the road with depth issues. One or two injuries to key players and the team's championship dreams are pretty much over (for the year).
In short, while some teams may want to swing for the fences, the majority of the championship contenders are likely happy to settle for a base hit or a double in the draft. Too many homers can result in top heavy teams that lack depth.