Portal Question

2,182 Views | 13 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by BeachedBear
SFCityBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I was thinking about the basketball portal, and it brought me to wondering whether it can continue to work long-term in the present configuration, which has become somewhat of a free-for-all, a recruiting system with few rules. I don't see how it can survive without adding some rules. Maybe some of you can clear this up for me.

I think what we had last year, and now this year, has been a mad dash by all schools who want to quickly improve their teams, to recruit many or even most of their roster vacancies from the portal. On the surface, this seems smart, because players who declare to enter the portal are players with records of their play in Division One, and coaches will have a lot of data on these players, their statistics, their skills, and their physical condition, their injuries. Coaches will have vastly more data on them than they would have on the traditional freshmen high school recruits. The main downside in recruiting more from the portal than directly from the college ranks is the recruit from the portal ranks will usually have only one or two seasons of eligibility left, while the high school recruit might stay with one program for 4 years (forgetting for a moment the additional year or years that players might be granted).

What seems to be happening is that as coaches focus on recruiting more experienced players out of the portal (and there is a limit of 13 scholarships players) so many or most coaches will probably be signing fewer freshmen recruits out of high school. All players have eligibility of 4 or 5 years, depending on when they began playing in D1. Portal players have limited eligibility left, and when they leave, coaches must replace them.

Here is the rub: At some future date, sooner than later, the portal will be running out of players, because teams will have not recruited enough freshmen, to provide enough new players to declare to enter the portal after they have played for a year or two for their original team.

I don't see how the present portal system can survive, unless the NCAA mandates that schools sign a certain minimum percentage of high school freshmen recruits per roster. Or the NCAA could go another way and limit the number of players in the portal a coach can signl, but that could be more complicated.

That is how I see the math developing. Maybe I'm wrong. I'd like to hear your comments.


01Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
SFCityBear said:

I was thinking about the basketball portal, and it brought me to wondering whether it can continue to work long-term in the present configuration, which has become somewhat of a free-for-all, a recruiting system with few rules. I don't see how it can survive without adding some rules. Maybe some of you can clear this up for me.

I think what we had last year, and now this year, has been a mad dash by all schools who want to quickly improve their teams, to recruit many or even most of their roster vacancies from the portal. On the surface, this seems smart, because players who declare to enter the portal are players with records of their play in Division One, and coaches will have a lot of data on these players, their statistics, their skills, and their physical condition, their injuries. Coaches will have vastly more data on them than they would have on the traditional freshmen high school recruits. The main downside in recruiting more from the portal than directly from the college ranks is the recruit from the portal ranks will usually have only one or two seasons of eligibility left, while the high school recruit might stay with one program for 4 years (forgetting for a moment the additional year or years that players might be granted).

What seems to be happening is that as coaches focus on recruiting more experienced players out of the portal (and there is a limit of 13 scholarships players) so many or most coaches will probably be signing fewer freshmen recruits out of high school. All players have eligibility of 4 or 5 years, depending on when they began playing in D1. Portal players have limited eligibility left, and when they leave, coaches must replace them.

Here is the rub: At some future date, sooner than later, the portal will be running out of players, because teams will have not recruited enough freshmen, to provide enough new players to declare to enter the portal after they have played for a year or two for their original team.

I don't see how the present portal system can survive, unless the NCAA mandates that schools sign a certain minimum percentage of high school freshmen recruits per roster. Or the NCAA could go another way and limit the number of players in the portal a coach can signl, but that could be more complicated.

That is how I see the math developing. Maybe I'm wrong. I'd like to hear your comments.

I think more freshmen will end up playing for lesser renowned programs. Once they've proven they can play at a collegiate level, they'll transfer to a more acclaimed program. So long as the total number of basketball roster spaces remains unchanged, freshmen will always be recruited somewhere just by dint of upperclassmen graduating and using up their eligibility.

parentswerebears
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I think that things will balance out a bit. The number of transfers will eventually plateau and drop a bit as transfers don't pan out as well as teams thought.
Big C
How long do you want to ignore this user?
01Bear said:

SFCityBear said:

I was thinking about the basketball portal, and it brought me to wondering whether it can continue to work long-term in the present configuration, which has become somewhat of a free-for-all, a recruiting system with few rules. I don't see how it can survive without adding some rules. Maybe some of you can clear this up for me.

I think what we had last year, and now this year, has been a mad dash by all schools who want to quickly improve their teams, to recruit many or even most of their roster vacancies from the portal. On the surface, this seems smart, because players who declare to enter the portal are players with records of their play in Division One, and coaches will have a lot of data on these players, their statistics, their skills, and their physical condition, their injuries. Coaches will have vastly more data on them than they would have on the traditional freshmen high school recruits. The main downside in recruiting more from the portal than directly from the college ranks is the recruit from the portal ranks will usually have only one or two seasons of eligibility left, while the high school recruit might stay with one program for 4 years (forgetting for a moment the additional year or years that players might be granted).

What seems to be happening is that as coaches focus on recruiting more experienced players out of the portal (and there is a limit of 13 scholarships players) so many or most coaches will probably be signing fewer freshmen recruits out of high school. All players have eligibility of 4 or 5 years, depending on when they began playing in D1. Portal players have limited eligibility left, and when they leave, coaches must replace them.

Here is the rub: At some future date, sooner than later, the portal will be running out of players, because teams will have not recruited enough freshmen, to provide enough new players to declare to enter the portal after they have played for a year or two for their original team.

I don't see how the present portal system can survive, unless the NCAA mandates that schools sign a certain minimum percentage of high school freshmen recruits per roster. Or the NCAA could go another way and limit the number of players in the portal a coach can signl, but that could be more complicated.

That is how I see the math developing. Maybe I'm wrong. I'd like to hear your comments.

I think more freshmen will end up playing for lesser renowned programs. Once they've proven they can play at a collegiate level, they'll transfer to a more acclaimed program. So long as the total number of basketball roster spaces remains unchanged, freshmen will always be recruited somewhere just by dint of upperclassmen graduating and using up their eligibility.



This. It will be like minor league baseball, where you move up to AA, then AAA, etc. I'm not gonna lie, it's more fan-friendly when you can watch a player develop for 3-4 years, but it will be what it will be.
brevity
How long do you want to ignore this user?
01Bear said:

I think more freshmen will end up playing for lesser renowned programs. Once they've proven they can play at a collegiate level, they'll transfer to a more acclaimed program. So long as the total number of basketball roster spaces remains unchanged, freshmen will always be recruited somewhere just by dint of upperclassmen graduating and using up their eligibility.

Well stated. Even if we're just talking about men's college basketball, it's a vast ecosystem of Division I (over 350 teams), Division II (over 300 teams), Division III (over 400 teams), NAIA (over 200 teams), and JUCO (over 600 teams). If the transfer portal really does lead to a lessened emphasis on high school recruiting in Division I, then you will see a shift of more incoming freshmen in lower division programs.

This year's Final Four is kind of a microcosm of various approaches to the transfer portal in building a roster.

Purdue: minimal reliance. Lance Jones was a grad transfer from Southern Illinois. Everyone else came into the program as freshmen.

Connecticut: moderate reliance, to bring in experienced players in featured roles. Tristen Newton arrived in 2022 after 3 seasons at East Carolina. Cam Spencer was a grad transfer who played 3 years at Loyola Maryland and 1 year at Rutgers. Hassan Diarra transferred from Texas A&M in 2022. The rest of the team, including stars Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, and Alex Karaban, played exclusively for UConn.

Alabama: heavy reliance, importing stars to lead the way. In terms of minutes played, Rylan Griffen was the only homegrown player in their top 6, while Mohamed Wague was the only transfer in their bottom 7.

NC State: total reliance, making their postseason run with an all-transfer rotation. Freshman Dennis Parker got mysteriously ill toward the end of the regular season, but was never brought back into the lineup, even when he presumably got better.

These cases are instructive. For example, Duke looked a lot like Purdue last season, with Ryan Young as the only regular rotation player who didn't arrive there as a freshman. But next season they'll look more like Connecticut, with 4 older additions in supporting roles, who may not start much.

In this offseason, schools like Arkansas, Louisville, and Kentucky recently had coaching changes and complete rebuilds. They look a little like Alabama (expensive star power at the top) and NC State (mostly upperclassmen in the rotation, maybe a few freshmen). Louisville in particular is interesting because at least 8 of their newcomers are using their last season of eligibility, which means that coach Pat Kelsey will probably have to rebuild most of the team again through the portal next year.
RedlessWardrobe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I may be asking the obvious but also just curious for someone to clarify the transfer portal scenario moving forward:

First of all, since we are (hopefully) past covid, player eligibility is back to 4 years in general, except for situations in which a player may have played a minimum amount of games due to injury, in which he can petition for a medical redshirt year. Correct?

Secondly, have we now reached the point in which theoretically an incoming high schooler could now play for 4 different schools in 4 consecutive years? Or do some restrictions still remain?

Again, I apologize if my questions sound unintelligent, but I'm just looking for a clarification.
BeachedBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I think we are about 2 or 3 years into a 10 or 20 year evolution. NIL is just a small facet of the evolution. Too early to say what it will end up as.

Football is going through a different evolution at the same time. It will be curious to me, how MBB will follow football (At least in Big10 and SEC - possibly ACC/Big12 as well) or not (The other few hundred programs that have either stopped college football or maintain a smaller 'collegiate' program).

As for Cal, itself - we are collectively going through our own existential path: Whether and How to compete (or not) in both sports (as well as others). Similarly, our cross bay rival will do the same, but with much different structural framework (primarily the public vs private component).

The traditional organizers/leaders have all abandoned ship (NCAA, College Presidents, many ADs), so hold on for a fun ride!!!

sluggo
How long do you want to ignore this user?
RedlessWardrobe said:

I may be asking the obvious but also just curious for someone to clarify the transfer portal scenario moving forward:

First of all, since we are (hopefully) past covid, player eligibility is back to 4 years in general, except for situations in which a player may have played a minimum amount of games due to injury, in which he can petition for a medical redshirt year. Correct?

Secondly, have we now reached the point in which theoretically an incoming high schooler could now play for 4 different schools in 4 consecutive years? Or do some restrictions still remain?

Again, I apologize if my questions sound unintelligent, but I'm just looking for a clarification.
This should be the last year of covid extra years, so there will be viewer players in the system. 5th (or more) years will be due to redshirting (remember that?), injuries, or both.

The multi-transfer rules were suspended. Maybe they have been formally removed, but since the courts are involved, they are not coming back. Yes to 4 schools in 4 years.

RedlessWardrobe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
RedlessWardrobe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Thanks for the clarification. Only thing left that could stretch it would be transferring mid semester/season. At this point anything is possible.
HearstMining
How long do you want to ignore this user?
sluggo said:

RedlessWardrobe said:

I may be asking the obvious but also just curious for someone to clarify the transfer portal scenario moving forward:

First of all, since we are (hopefully) past covid, player eligibility is back to 4 years in general, except for situations in which a player may have played a minimum amount of games due to injury, in which he can petition for a medical redshirt year. Correct?

Secondly, have we now reached the point in which theoretically an incoming high schooler could now play for 4 different schools in 4 consecutive years? Or do some restrictions still remain?

Again, I apologize if my questions sound unintelligent, but I'm just looking for a clarification.
This should be the last year of covid extra years, so there will be viewer players in the system. 5th (or more) years will be due to redshirting (remember that?), injuries, or both.

The multi-transfer rules were suspended. Maybe they have been formally removed, but since the courts are involved, they are not coming back. Yes to 4 schools in 4 years.


I wonder if redshirting won't go by the wayside in the future. Why invest in a kid, with no payback for a year, only to see him/her jump ship for another school after they've gained the strength/skill needed to perform?
Bobodeluxe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Mid week transfers are coming.
calumnus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Bobodeluxe said:

Mid week transfers are coming.


Mid-game. If a player is going off on you, take up a collection…
BeachedBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
calumnus said:

Bobodeluxe said:

Mid week transfers are coming.


Mid-game. If a player is going off on you, take up a collection…
Half time Jersey swap - LOVE IT!
Refresh
Page 1 of 1
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.