Potential starting lineup next year

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RedlessWardrobe
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stu said:

HoopDreams said:

Harky4 said:

HoopDreams said:

at his size, he needs to be a PG at the next level
Abd at his size he would be challenged to play in the NBA. Jerome Randle was a real stud (Cal's all time leading scorer), and he had to have his pro career overseas. The PGs in the NBA are really physical as well as exceptionally talented.
I maybe wrong, but I think Wilkinson is taller than Randle. He certainly is more athletic.

Also, Wilkinson is a freshmen, while we are thinking of Randle as a senior.

Still, I agree Wilkinson has work to do before he gets a NBA look (e.g. improve his 3 point shooting)
Yes, Wilkinson already makes plays around the basket Randle couldn't.
The flip side of this. Wilkinson will never the three point shooter that Randle was.
HoopDreams
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I won't count him out

Big C said:

HoopDreams said:

at his size, he needs to be a PG at the next level

Sure, but do you see him being able to do that?
BearlyCareAnymore
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calumnus said:

Big C said:


How do you guys think Wilkinson best "fits"?

+ as a scoring PG, complimented by a classic off-guard?
+ as an off guard, maybe paired with a taller PG?
+ as a third/combo guard -- but with major minutes! -- in a backcourt rotating with a classic PG and a classic off-guard?

And how do you project him at the next level?


I think the above is determined more by what other guard(s) you can bring in:
1. If we bring in an elite off guard
2. If we bring in an elite point guard
3. If we are lucky enough to get both.

I agree with others that his best shot at the NBA is at PG, but that should not be much of a consideration for Madsen. However, he will almost certainly be getting significant PG minutes the next 3 years.
new world. It absolutely has to be a consideration because if we won't play him where he will need to be to get to the next level, someone else will and he will be tempted to go there.
Johnfox
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So the expectation is Wilkinson is our starting PG next season meaning we have to fill up the center position and get a 3pt shooter that can actually make his shots

Next year

PG - Jeremiah Wilkinson, Semetri Carr
G - Andrej Stojakovic, DJ Campbell
G - BJ Omot, Joshua Ola-Joseph
F - Open, Rytis Petraitis, Spencer Mahoney
C - Open, Lee Dort, Devin Curtis
oskidunker
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I predict all new players
Bring back It’s It’s to Haas Pavillion!
barsad
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oskidunker said:

I predict all new players

Man, if that prediction comes true we really are in a bind… save some kind of NIL recruiting miracle. We might have to get used to the idea that Cal is not going to come up with 5 stellar NIL journeymen if we go to the well every year. The quality of this year's talent seems about right for where the reputation of the program is right now.
As for JW making it in the NBA, that's a big shrug. I use the Jaylon Tyson yardstick now… if a guy like JT can't even get more than 10 min a game (is that "making it?"), then you'd better play 25% better than JT to make it as a starter in the NBA. JW does not meet that bar today, but maybe in three years.
barsad
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RedlessWardrobe said:

The flip side of this. Wilkinson will never the three point shooter that Randle was.

The stats bear you out, Red -
Career FG
JW - 41.4
Randle - 45.4
Career 3P %
JW - 31.4
Randle - 40.4
Harky4
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With the portal being funded additionally by Cal Athletics via the House Settlement, my wild guess is that we may lose 2 or 3 current returning rotational players that will need to be replaced by transfers from such portal. I see lots of bidding wars that are stirred up by the athletes' sports agents.
stu
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Johnfox said:

So the expectation is Wilkinson is our starting PG next season meaning we have to fill up the center position and get a 3pt shooter that can actually make his shots

Next year

PG - Jeremiah Wilkinson, Semetri Carr
G - Andrej Stojakovic, DJ Campbell
G - BJ Omot, Joshua Ola-Joseph
F - Open, Rytis Petraitis, Spencer Mahoney
C - Open, Lee Dort, Devin Curtis

Where would you put Jovanni Ruff?
Johnfox
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Losing Joshua Ola joseph and DJ campbell wouldn't hurt
stu
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We've gotten some good minutes from those two and they might be better next season. At least they'll be familiar with the system. I'm tired of breaking in brand new players every year.
Bobodeluxe
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"I'm tired of breaking in brand new players every year."

Huh?

Slaver.
RedlessWardrobe
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barsad said:

oskidunker said:

I predict all new players

Man, if that prediction comes true we really are in a bind… save some kind of NIL recruiting miracle. We might have to get used to the idea that Cal is not going to come up with 5 stellar NIL journeymen if we go to the well every year. The quality of this year's talent seems about right for where the reputation of the program is right now.
As for JW making it in the NBA, that's a big shrug. I use the Jaylon Tyson yardstick now… if a guy like JT can't even get more than 10 min a game (is that "making it?"), then you'd better play 25% better than JT to make it as a starter in the NBA. JW does not meet that bar today, but maybe in three years.
While I agree with you barsad, you should know by now that you can't take oskidunker's one liners seriously.
concernedparent
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barsad said:

oskidunker said:

I predict all new players

Man, if that prediction comes true we really are in a bind… save some kind of NIL recruiting miracle. We might have to get used to the idea that Cal is not going to come up with 5 stellar NIL journeymen if we go to the well every year. The quality of this year's talent seems about right for where the reputation of the program is right now.
As for JW making it in the NBA, that's a big shrug. I use the Jaylon Tyson yardstick now… if a guy like JT can't even get more than 10 min a game (is that "making it?"), then you'd better play 25% better than JT to make it as a starter in the NBA. JW does not meet that bar today, but maybe in three years.
He's on the best team in the league that's deep at wings. He'd be playing 25 minutes a game for a mediocre team.
BeachedBear
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Johnfox said:

So the expectation is Wilkinson is our starting PG next season meaning we have to fill up the center position and get a 3pt shooter that can actually make his shots

Next year

PG - Jeremiah Wilkinson, Semetri Carr
G - Andrej Stojakovic, DJ Campbell
G - BJ Omot, Joshua Ola-Joseph
F - Open, Rytis Petraitis, Spencer Mahoney
C - Open, Lee Dort, Devin Curtis

I'm going to challenge your premise in BOLD.

I would say the expectation is about....

20% that JW starts at PG for Cal next season.

20% that JW starts at off guard for Cal next season.

60% that JW starts at ANY position for a different team.

That's not what I want or hope for, but are about what my expectations are (and other fans I speak with that are familiar with the situation).

HearstMining
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barsad said:

RedlessWardrobe said:

The flip side of this. Wilkinson will never the three point shooter that Randle was.

The stats bear you out, Red -
Career FG
JW - 41.4
Randle - 45.4
Career 3P %
JW - 31.4
Randle - 40.4

JW is a freshman, so his career states are FRESHMAN stats:

Randle's FRESHMAN stats were: FG% = 38.9%, 3P% = 30.2%

So, JW's 3P% is only 1.2% lower. I'd say there's a good chance that JW will approximate Randle's numbers if he stays long enough.
socaltownie
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OK. Going to be pollyannish (and parrot Rod B for those that didn't listen to the podcast).

The premise is that a key thing about how Madsen is coaching (and possibly practicing) is individual player development. Did ANYONE have Wilkerson blowing things up like he is blowing things up. I would be stunned if he doesn't finish in the top 5 in FOY in the ACC and in many years might actually be top 3 if those were not being filled by likely Lotto picks.

So a player like JW (and perhaps AS) is weighing NIL vs. Winning vs. Continued ability to work on their INDIVIDUAL game that prepares them for the next level.

IMHO what the Bears DESPERATELY need in the modern game is a stretch 4 or 5. Having a guy who is a big beefy rebounder but no threat to hit the three makes things so easy for modern day defenders. I love Dorts heart but he is not that guy. We also need 1 (or even 2) bigger 2s that can defend bigger ball handling guards. Our defense against the high screen has been NIGHMARE induciing and needs to be fixed in the offseason if we are ever going to compete in the ACC.

concernedparent
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socaltownie said:


IMHO what the Bears DESPERATELY need in the modern game is a stretch 4 or 5. Having a guy who is a big beefy rebounder but no threat to hit the three makes things so easy for modern day defenders. I love Dorts heart but he is not that guy.

Plenty of successful teams in college with a beefy 5 who can't shoot, but none that play 4 out and where the whole lineup can't shoot the 3.
RedlessWardrobe
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HearstMining said:

barsad said:

RedlessWardrobe said:

The flip side of this. Wilkinson will never the three point shooter that Randle was.

The stats bear you out, Red -
Career FG
JW - 41.4
Randle - 45.4
Career 3P %
JW - 31.4
Randle - 40.4

JW is a freshman, so his career states are FRESHMAN stats:

Randle's FRESHMAN stats were: FG% = 38.9%, 3P% = 30.2%

So, JW's 3P% is only 1.2% lower. I'd say there's a good chance that JW will approximate Randle's numbers if he stays long enough.

Overall numbers yes. I was referring to 3 point shooting ability only. And forget the stats, I'm using the eye test on this one. JW will never be as good as Jerome from outside the arc. But overall, he certainly has the ability to surpass Jerome's career. Hopefully it will be as a Golden Bear.
Basketball Bear
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Three players leaving due to graduation or eligibility are Blacksher, Sissoko and Tucker Sr.
New Freshmen are Carr and Ruff.
So I see this is what we have and NEED.
PG - Jeremiah Wilkinson, Semetri Carr, NEED 6-3 or taller veteran transfer

SG, - Andrej Stojakovic, Ruff, DJ Campbell

Wing/F - BJ Omot, Joshua Ola-Joseph, Rytis Petraitis

F - Spencer Mahoney- Needs to develop a game around the rim and be a better defender.

C - Lee Dort, Devin Curtis no strength near basket, needs to play at 230 lbs+.

Vladimir- Has been here two seasons played 46 min and scored 6pts. I was hoping he would become our new Jorge with his hustle.

We NEED another Sissoko or Fardaws

I feel that the last scholarship we gave last year (Vlad) and this year (Mahoney) did not bring us much in return thus far. Perhaps Vlad or Curtis is the medical retire I read about so that might help us get our big man/stretch four. My understanding is that the new limit for scholarships is 15. So it looks to me that we should bring in 4 new bodies. Yes I can imagine that number can go up but I won't speculate who else would leave. Madsen loves his players and the players really love coach.

RedlessWardrobe
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^
Curious about your Mahoney/ better defender comment. Do you have access to practices or coaches? I'm only saying this because if you don't I would say, that Mahoney hasn't been on the court enough to make an evaluation of his defensive ability.
Basketball Bear
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^
True I have only seen him play in person against Mercyhurst, Sacramento and on TV for the rest of the games. Yes he has only played 136 minutes. I have been invited to practices but have not taken Mark up on his offer as of yet. Just basing my comment on what I have seen.
4thGenCal
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Basketball Bear said:

^
True I have only seen him play in person against Mercyhurst, Sacramento and on TV for the rest of the games. Yes he has only played 136 minutes. I have been invited to practices but have not taken Mark up on his offer as of yet. Just basing my comment on what I have seen.
Great locker room teammate, supports all players. Strengths are: very good open 3 pt shot, good size/physical grit versus the power forward (not the post). Negatives today: Slow feet, thus cannot effectively guard wing players/ perimeter (reason current Stanford staff from WSU, did not offer him a scholarship) and the limiting factor with the current staff being hesitant to put him on the court for any extended time. He can hurt a zone defense, if He can get space on his outside shot, However it's difficult for him to create space etc or beat his man off the bounce. Flip side is He can improve and he is just a redshirt freshman. However banking on him to be much more than a 8-12 minute/game player is a stretch.
Staff knows the need for a more physical PG and is pursuing that. The likelihood is that both Curtis and Vlade roster spots become available. "If" that happens then minimum three more spots will be filled. However as has been pointed out, agents, etc contact current players thru families of all programs, with enticing offers - thus it's nearly impossible to accurately forecast the true # of returning players till April. Will add that despite the disappointing record thus far, the players love playing for our HC - so any departure will likely be based on a financial gap too great for the program to cover.
Johnfox
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Is the plan to have Wikinson run the point next season or are we going to move him to the 2 spot?
Calbear73
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IF all the players come back next year, especially Wilkinson, Stojakovic, Dort & Petratis, Cal should have a good foundation to build on. But there will be a huge need to bring in a solid big who can protect the paint & hopefully can shoot a little bit. I've heard that Sissoko is petitioning for another year of eligibility and if he comes back that would help a great deal, but Cal will still need to get bigger on the front line to compete in the ACC.

I also think the starting lineup will change during the year as Ruff & Car get integrated into the rotation and learn to play college ball.

Starting lineup Beginning of Season

PG - Wilkinson, Car
G - Stojakovic, Campbell, Ruff
F - Petraitis, JOJ
F - Omot, Mahoney
C - Dort or Sissoko or Transfer

As we learn the capabilities of freshman and if they can shoot from the outside I can see a different starting lineup later in the season when we need more offense.

PG - Wilkinson
G - Ruff - at 6'5" he gives us a player who can score both outside & inside and plays good defense.
F - Stojakovic
F - Omot or Petraitis
C - Dort or Sissoko or Transfer

If we can find a solid post player to replace Sissoko, I think Cal can play in the top half of the leagues, but we still have some weaknesses that need to be addressed.

1. Cal needs to get bigger to complete with the best teams in the ACC.
2. both JW (6'1") & Car (6') are small pt. Guards. I would love to find an experienced and proven PG 6'3" or taller with 2 years of eligibility who can run the team and is a competent shooter.
3. A wing player who can shoot the 3 point shot. Cal needs to improve its outside shooting & hoping that current players improve their shot and that Ruff and Car can add some outside consistency.

I would not be too concerned or disappointed if some players leave and open spots for better players. Neither Pavlovic or Curtis have really played in two years and Mahoney doesn't seem to move well enough to earn meaningful minutes. If we have the NIL funds I believe we can find upgrades if any of those three choose to leave.

Go Bears!
stu
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Calbear73 said:

...

2. both JW (6'1") & Car (6') are small pt. Guards. I would love to find an experienced and proven PG 6'3" or taller with 2 years of eligibility who can run the team and is a competent shooter.

...

Wilkinson plays taller than his height due to his freaking athleticism. Think way back to Charles Johnson.
Harky4
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Our top 4-5 players will be the object of some serious poaching. To me the relevant question becomes will we have sufficient NIL funds to compete in regards to retaining our best core players. Listing all of our best returning players as next year's starters is to me an exercise in fantasy.
stu
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Harky4 said:

Our top 4-5 players will be the object of some serious poaching. To me the relevant question becomes will we have sufficient NIL funds to compete in regards to retaining our best core players. Listing all of our best returning players as next year's starters is to me an exercise in fantasy.
I don't really know what I'm talking about but I'm guessing Stojakovic and Wilkinson will be our top two poaching targets (assuming Sissoko isn't granted another year).
HoopDreams
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stu said:

Calbear73 said:

...

2. both JW (6'1") & Car (6') are small pt. Guards. I would love to find an experienced and proven PG 6'3" or taller with 2 years of eligibility who can run the team and is a competent shooter.

...

Wilkinson plays taller than his height due to his freaking athleticism. Think way back to Charles Johnson.
who was the UW player who was undersized but was an elite athlete?

the player who was picked last in the draft, but had a long career?
HoopDreams
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barsad
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Harky4 said:

Our top 4-5 players will be the object of some serious poaching. To me the relevant question becomes will we have sufficient NIL funds to compete in regards to retaining our best core players. Listing all of our best returning players as next year's starters is to me an exercise in fantasy.

I have a fantasy, and it's getting to 14 wins. If we lose to Stanford Saturday the only real chance to get there will be the BC and Notre Dame games in March, may the Big Bear in the sky grant us those wins.
SFCityBear
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RedlessWardrobe said:

stu said:

HoopDreams said:

Harky4 said:

HoopDreams said:

at his size, he needs to be a PG at the next level
Abd at his size he would be challenged to play in the NBA. Jerome Randle was a real stud (Cal's all time leading scorer), and he had to have his pro career overseas. The PGs in the NBA are really physical as well as exceptionally talented.
I maybe wrong, but I think Wilkinson is taller than Randle. He certainly is more athletic.

Also, Wilkinson is a freshmen, while we are thinking of Randle as a senior.

Still, I agree Wilkinson has work to do before he gets a NBA look (e.g. improve his 3 point shooting)
Yes, Wilkinson already makes plays around the basket Randle couldn't.
The flip side of this. Wilkinson will never the three point shooter that Randle was.
He can work to become a much better three point shooter, but it takes years. Jason Kidd did it.

Wilkinson makes plays around the basket, but they are mostly plays for him. A good point guard must be at least a decent playmaker, and Wilkinson is not there yet. He couldn't touch Randle in that department.

The big difference between Wilkinson and Randle right now is that Randle made his teammates better. Jeremiah has averaged one assist per game this season, and two assists per 40 minutes. As a freshman, Randle averaged 6 assists per 40 minutes. Jeremiah is a good player with a lot of upside, but he has got to complement his offense with a passing game. I'm not sure he has those instincts, and I'm not sure instincts like that can be learned. He needs all the different passes. He needs to know where his teammates like to shoot from and set them up. Ursa Major said the pass that sets up the play gets no credit in the box score, but it is just as important as the final pass for the assist. As far as Jeremiah making his teammates better, he is not there yet. Randle had that skill, the playmaking skills to set up his teammates, before he ever got to Cal. You should have seen his high school tapes ---- dazzling.

I would rather Jeremiah play the off guard, but have him drive more often, working with teammates trying to get open, and finding them at the right moment.
bearsandgiants
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This is going to be really tough for us because I don't see big donors wanting to plunk down on any of our top players with the exception of Wilkinson. Why do we suck so bad at recruiting and coaching? So many other small teams are kicking our ass, from coast to coast. It's frankly embarrassing.

We should be a ranked team nearly every year. We're paying for that in Madsen. We're funding it with NIL. We're getting absolutely terrible results. The casual layman could tell Rytis was a gamer who would make major contributions from day 1, but it took forever for him to get into the starting lineup. Blacksher continues to eat up massive minutes in what can generously be described as a head-scratcher. Andrej was mediocre at Furd but paid big to come be our savior for some reason (just because he had 5 stars in high school playing against weak Sacramento valley competition?). He plays hard but takes way too many shots and isn't facilitating team success. There's almost no game plan from day to day. We continue to make dumb mistakes and commit lazy turnovers. We lead the conference in offensive rebounding because we miss everything in sight.

I think we need to clean house next season if Madsen and his clueless assistants don't find a way to a winning conference record and at LEAST an NIT bid next spring.
RedlessWardrobe
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bearsandgiants said:

This is going to be really tough for us because I don't see big donors wanting to plunk down on any of our top players with the exception of Wilkinson. Why do we suck so bad at recruiting and coaching? So many other small teams are kicking our ass, from coast to coast. It's frankly embarrassing.

We should be a ranked team nearly every year. We're paying for that in Madsen. We're funding it with NIL. We're getting absolutely terrible results. The casual layman could tell Rytis was a gamer who would make major contributions from day 1, but it took forever for him to get into the starting lineup. Blacksher continues to eat up massive minutes in what can generously be described as a head-scratcher. Andrej was mediocre at Furd but paid big to come be our savior for some reason (just because he had 5 stars in high school playing against weak Sacramento valley competition?). He plays hard but takes way too many shots and isn't facilitating team success. There's almost no game plan from day to day. We continue to make dumb mistakes and commit lazy turnovers. We lead the conference in offensive rebounding because we miss everything in sight.

I think we need to clean house next season if Madsen and his clueless assistants don't find a way to a winning conference record and at LEAST an NIT bid next spring.
I understand your passion and concern but already coming to conclusions about next year might be a bit premature. I want Cal to be relevant in basketball as well, but the sh*t situation that Madsen inherited is about as bad as you can get. Got to give him just a little bit more leeway.
Johnfox
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Let's be honest, the average Cal fan (even a delusional fan) would've agreed that taking Blacksher at the Point Guard was going to awful from day 1. Rytis was also making a huge jump from Air Force to Cal and a lot of people had questions about Andrej.

The only person we missed out on was maybe Mahaney or some other top guard due to NIL. Would you rather have Stoj or that top dog.

Bottom line is our hopes are too high for Mark and he is on track for a 3 year rebuild
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