Predict who will leave

1,476 Views | 16 Replies | Last: 6 days ago by Big C
oskidunker
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We better have a ton of money to keep Wilkinson.
Bring back It’s It’s to Haas Pavillion!
Big C
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Of the guys we want to keep, 1/3 is the "magic fraction": less than a third leave, that's good. More than a third, that's bad. Yes, who it is that actually leaves is also important.
RedlessWardrobe
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I hope with cautious optimism that we retain JW and AS. Also think we'll keep Petraitis and Dort. Anything past that, who knows?
concernedparent
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Can't help but feel like JOJ will leave. He's a decent player but probably feels like he's being misused here. He needs to be next to some playmakers to take advantage of his cutting ability. Plus he doesn't play that many minutes despite respectable production, and that will probably shrink even more when BJ comes back.
oskidunker
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concernedparent said:

Can't help but feel like JOJ will leave. He's a decent player but probably feels like he's being misused here. He needs to be next to some playmakers to take advantage of his cutting ability. Plus he doesn't play that many minutes despite respectable production, and that will probably shrink even more when BJ comes back.


Wei will know pretty soon. Probably a few days after the acc tournament exit . Those really unhappy will enter asap while those that are willing to stay may take a while. Nothing would surprise me, although I am hoping for a miracle and most-staying
Bring back It’s It’s to Haas Pavillion!
ncbears
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I hope Wilkinson stays - but Cal's history with players from Georgia high schools has been "one and done". Granted those two prior Bears were NBA lottery picks and Wilkinson would not be a lottery pick ....

I'm guessing Petraitis has taken the minutes JOJ would otherwise have had. JOJ also was injured during the season - so I have no idea what his health situation is and whether that is a limiting factor. But, that does not mean JOJ is not in Madsen's plans for next year. I assume Madsen will be/has been letting players know what their roles are now and expectations for rest of this year and for next should a player return.
BeachedBear
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I'm going to wait until the end of the season and see what the Portal looks like.

To get more data? Not really. I just think the reality of the situation is too depressing for me to deal with right now.
DWM81
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Wilkinson is the key player to retain. If he stays I believe we go to the Tournament next season...
Bobodeluxe
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DWM81 said:

Wilkinson is the key player to retain. If he stays I believe we go to the Tournament next season...
If the UC Berkeley Bears can win two more, they are in the ACC tourney this year!
Harky4
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My take is that the better the player, the more likely that he will be poached by a team with deeper pockets and a successful record recently that includes regular NCAA post season tournament appearances. You can identify for yourself who those players are, and then just moan. We have to start winning to be able to retain key players in the new world of the portal and the NIL as supplemented by House settlement funding, and just as importantly we need a more robust NIL fund upon which Mark can tap to land the teams that we all desire.

My desired keepers are JW, Drej, BJ, JOJ, Rytis and Lee (also may be CJ and Spencer). Those players would form a solid core of "vets" who have learned Mark's NBA-oriented system that requires time and experience to execute properly. Jovani and TT, our two scholastic recruits, are going to be contributors next season. Mady is applying for an extra year of eligibility, but his petition is a Hail Mary.

Our ace in the hole is Mad Dog who clearly is liked by his players and who is really, really good when it comes to recruiting and bonding with his players and their families. I can attest that JW had many friends and family at the Duke game, the GT practice and the GT game (literally 20+ in the seats directly behind me in the front row behind the Cal bench; and they many of them wore Cal gear and were screaming "Go Bears" when not screaming "Go Jeremiah"!
barsad
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DWM81 said:

Wilkinson is the key player to retain. If he stays I believe we go to the Tournament next season...

Can't even take this kind of thing seriously at the moment. We have a few thousand more "basketball miles" before we can even begin to dream about the Madness.
I am with some other posters, the mere fact that we have to ask whether half our team is migrating away EVERY f*king year is a testament to how bad it's gotten for mid-tier teams like Cal. The truth is that a team's consistency these days all depends on what's inside the head of a 20-year-old and the various bad (occasionally good, but mostly bad) pieces of advice trusted sources are feeding them. No use trying to predict something like that, it's a purely chaotic system.
HoopDreams
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At Cal, Wilkerson and Andrej will be featured players next season, and Madsen is a great developer of players

6956bear
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Harky4 said:

My take is that the better the player, the more likely that he will be poached by a team with deeper pockets and a successful record recently that includes regular NCAA post season tournament appearances. You can identify for yourself who those players are, and then just moan. We have to start winning to be able to retain key players in the new world of the portal and the NIL as supplemented by House settlement funding, and just as importantly we need a more robust NIL fund upon which Mark can tap to land the teams that we all desire.

My desired keepers are JW, Drej, BJ, JOJ, Rytis and Lee (also may be CJ and Spencer). Those players would form a solid core of "vets" who have learned Mark's NBA-oriented system that requires time and experience to execute properly. Jovani and TT, our two scholastic recruits, are going to be contributors next season. Mady is applying for an extra year of eligibility, but his petition is a Hail Mary.

Our ace in the hole is Mad Dog who clearly is liked by his players and who is really, really good when it comes to recruiting and bonding with his players and their families. I can attest that JW had many friends and family at the Duke game, the GT practice and the GT game (literally 20+ in the seats directly behind me in the front row behind the Cal bench; and they many of them wore Cal gear and were screaming "Go Bears" when not screaming "Go Jeremiah"!
Your first paragraph is spot on. Good players that develop on non NCAA tourney teams that play before half empty arenas are ripe for poaching. Given Cal will not be an NCAA tournament team and plays to less than half capacity most nights they likely will face serious poaching efforts.

This is the market the top programs poach. Look at Jordan Pope (Texas) and Tyler Bilodeau (UCLA). They developed at Oregon State but left for top programs. Both got serious compensation to leave and play in top programs and good academic schools.

I think this offseason will likley tell us if Madsen and Cal will be a decent program or if mediocrity is the likely outcome for the program. Hoops is easier to turn around than football due to the numbers, but you do need good players. And you need to keep them.

I think Stojakovic is more likely to stay than Wilkinson. But it would not suprise me if both depart.
RedlessWardrobe
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Call me a fool (because often I am), but in the case of JW, the fact that Madsen recruited him early as just a 3 star recruit might factor in a sense of loyalty from JW to Madsen, and perhaps JW more willing to stay even if means taking a "slight discount." Also gotta believe AS's decision will be heavily influenced by his dad.
Bobodeluxe
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Loyalty?

lol
RedlessWardrobe
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Bobodeluxe said:

Loyalty?

lol
Every once in a while it pops up. FWIW, JW appears to be a decent young guy. Just maybe it comes into play, especially if his discount is minimal.
Big C
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"Loyalty" ... "academics" ... they still exist, though even less of a factor than before. Every player's different. Ya never know.
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