If only we'd have beaten Va Tech....

bearsandgiants said:

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> What a dream season this has the potential to be.

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welll, if injuries don't get even worse. # players gotta play

Duke crushed Louisville on Monday, 83-52. We played Duke a lot tighter than LV, perhaps a sign that the team has gotten a bit better .

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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Duke crushed Louisville on Monday, 83-52. We played Duke a lot tighter than LV, perhaps a sign that the team has gotten a bit better .

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Louisville also just had a really hot shooting night when they played us. They are good and better than Cal on most days, but they aren't as good as they looked in that game.

Meanwhile, Cal got the hot shooting against UNC and pulled off a win against a team that is also probably better than us. That's basketball!

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Sure there is a random element, and even more, matchup dynamics, but also the fact that players like Camden or Pippen have been improving.

Furd holding up vs 8-1 Clemson, up 32-30 at the half.

I think I said it earlier but Clemson is not anything special. Very well coached, not very talented, but a group of solid guys that play suffocating defense.

The cross-country road trip for these Southern boys must be hard, long flight, late game starts, mild weather, clean air and worst if all, no grits for breakfast...

100%. The travel takes a huge toll ala UNC this season.

3 things could be true about this clemson stanford game.

1. Stanford is a good team, hence the reason why they are tied with 5 minutes to go
2. Travel has gotten to Clemson
3. Clemson is not that great

Looks like Clemson will survive the Farm. Better for us if they have a good record coming in.

What are your thoughts about the order you get teams on different homestands and roadtrips?

When we are playing the Duke / North Carolina travel pair, getting Duke first feels like an advantage. We aren't likely to win, so we can manage the game differently late if we are getting blown out. Save up for the next game. On the flip, North Carolina gets tested by Stanfurd and then has to play us as the second game on a long roadtrip.

There is possibly the opposite scenario when we travel, such as the VA / VATech trip, where we played VA fresh to start and lost and then had to play VATech with a lot more pressure to win, which we didn't. I think this is still the optimal schedule for that trip, but we had to win the second game.

I'm glad we are getting Clemson second on Saturday after they had to play Furd first. We checked the GA Tech box and can ride the positive energy into Clemson.

Looking forward, I see Syracuse and SMU. I would say late in the season having Syracuse first might be better during a late season road swing. SMU as the Wednesday night home game is less desirable. We can't go into the Pitt game on a loss.

Winning out is essential, but it is also good to look at ACC standings as teams that finish ahead of us in the final conference standings will have an edge. We're in 9th place tied with FSU at 7-7.

SMU currently 8th, 8-6
@Cal
@Furd
Miami
@FSU

If we beat them Wednesday, we stand a good chance of finishing ahead of them, although their ACC sched is slightly harder than ours with 2 games vs Lville and NCSt, which we have missed. They have beaten UNC and are 1-1 vs LVille, quality wins, but their OOC sched was weak with no marquee wins.

FSU: currently 7-7, tied with us at 9th
Miami
@Pitt
@GTech
SMU

Poor OOC record and likely to go 2-2

VTech: 7-8, 10th place
@UNC
BC
@UVA

Tough remaining schedule, 1-2 / 8-10 finish, and out of the bubble

I think we can be any team on the acc if we are shooting well and decide to maybe give rebounding a try.

Yes but we can't continue to give up so many points in the post and foul so much (and of course rebound poorly)

bearsandgiants said:

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I think we can be any team on the acc if we are shooting well and decide to maybe give rebounding a try.

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Virginia and Duke as well

So, are we better playing in the #8/9 game and getting #1 second round, or playing in the #7/10 game and getting a slightly easier foe in the next round if we advance? None of it is easy, but some easier.

OdontoBear66 said:

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So, are we better playing in the #8/9 game and getting #1 second round, or playing in the #7/10 game and getting a slightly easier foe in the next round if we advance? None of it is easy, but some easier.

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The problem is that to get as low as #10, we will have to drop several games, which will take us completely out of the bubble. At that point we would have to get very deep in the ACC tourney, and beat the #2 seed after beating the #15 and #7...

OdontoBear66 said:

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So, are we better playing in the #8/9 game and getting #1 second round, or playing in the #7/10 game and getting a slightly easier foe in the next round if we advance? None of it is easy, but some easier.

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if you are hoping for a deep run in the ACC tourney you want to avoid Duke. So that means staying out of the 8/9 game. But the 7/10 game likely means Cal finished 10th and would be playing on day 1 of the ACC tourney against #15. if Cal can find a way to 7th that would be great.

I think it is mathematically possible though unlikely. A lot of games would need to go Cal's way and Cal would need to win out. What Cal would not want is a 2 way tie with either Clemson or Louisville. But a 2 way tie with UNC or Miami gives Cal the tiebreaker.

6956bear said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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So, are we better playing in the #8/9 game and getting #1 second round, or playing in the #7/10 game and getting a slightly easier foe in the next round if we advance? None of it is easy, but some easier.

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if you are hoping for a deep run in the ACC tourney you want to avoid Duke. So that means staying out of the 8/9 game. But the 7/10 game likely means Cal finished 10th and would be playing on day 1 of the ACC tourney against #15. if Cal can find a way to 7th that would be great.

I think it is mathematically possible though unlikely. A lot of games would need to go Cal's way and Cal would need to win out. What Cal would not want is a 2 way tie with either Clemson or Louisville. But a 2 way tie with UNC or Miami gives Cal the tiebreaker.

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My hypothetical had Clemson and UNC at 12-6, with Louisville, SMU, FSU and Cal at 10-8---so from that, not good. Guessing go 11-7, meaning win out and hope with all the other games we get #7 seed. Doing 10-8 we probably are best off with the 8/9 game as a reality unless there are some real weird results in the next four games.