Bracketology

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Johnfox
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8:21p, 2/14/26


Ohio State lost
Missouri lost
Virginia Tech lost
Georgia lost
UCF lost

A San Diego State loss and Santa Clara loss would help a lot.

We got a lot of help from other teams and find ourselves in the first four out. Right on the cusp. As long as we keep winning, we will guarantee ourselves an at large bid.

It starts next week with a home game against Stanford. Pack Haas!
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Onebearofpower
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9:24p, 2/14/26
Texas A&M, Auburn, Baylor, Tulsa, LSU also all lost.

Notre Dame, Presbyterian, NW State, Miami all won.

Great day for us!
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Johnfox
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8:07a, 2/15/26
Florida State may turn into a Q1 loss for us. They are up to 82 in the net rankings and have been playing very well as of late.
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6956bear
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In reply to Johnfox • 11:15a, 2/15/26
Johnfox said:


Ohio State lost
Missouri lost
Virginia Tech lost
Georgia lost
UCF lost

A San Diego State loss and Santa Clara loss would help a lot.

We got a lot of help from other teams and find ourselves in the first four out. Right on the cusp. As long as we keep winning, we will guarantee ourselves an at large bid.

It starts next week with a home game against Stanford. Pack Haas!

Cal needs to win their games. They cannot control what the others do. But the 16 teams that make up the last 4 byes through the next 4 out could see significant movement week to week as the season winds down. Even game to game.

But it does start with Stanford on Saturday. At this point it is more about Cal than the other teams in contention for the last spots.
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ManBearLion123
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In reply to 6956bear • 10:49p, 2/16/26
6956bear said:
Johnfox said:


Ohio State lost
Missouri lost
Virginia Tech lost
Georgia lost
UCF lost

A San Diego State loss and Santa Clara loss would help a lot.

We got a lot of help from other teams and find ourselves in the first four out. Right on the cusp. As long as we keep winning, we will guarantee ourselves an at large bid.

It starts next week with a home game against Stanford. Pack Haas!

Cal needs to win their games. They cannot control what the others do. But the 16 teams that make up the last 4 byes through the next 4 out could see significant movement week to week as the season winds down. Even game to game.

But it does start with Stanford on Saturday. At this point it is more about Cal than the other teams in contention for the last spots.


Agreed. 5 more wins (probably including the ACC tourney) and we're in. Anything less and we are almost certainly out. Not worth it to worry too much about other bubble teams because our fate relies almost solely on how we finish.
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HoopDreams
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9:16a, 2/17/26
Some how we moved up to First Four Out
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JB was a Chieftain
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10:34a, 2/17/26
We need to get some of those West coast teams in the tourney!!!
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3Cats4CAL
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11:17a, 2/17/26
glad We're better than Stanfurd
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Onebearofpower
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In reply to JB was a Chieftain • 11:35a, 2/17/26
We need to steal those west coast teams tourney bids*.
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bearfan93
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1:14p, 2/17/26
if we go 5-0 I don't think we'll have to sweat it out on Sunday.
4-1 and we'll be sweating.
3-2 or worse and unlikely.

Listed the noteable remaining games for some of these other bubble teams. I didn't list games that they still have vs teams that won't be in the tourney/aren't on Bubble Watch:

Big Ten:
- tOSU: vs #24 Wiscy, @ #15 MSU, @ Iowa, vs #7 Purdue
- UCLA: @ #15 MSU, vs #10 Illini, vs #9 Nebraska, play u$c twice. I don't know if we want them to win in order to make our H2H look better or if we want them to lose to open up another spot. Since it's the bruins i'll root for them to lose.
- U$C: basically the same schedule as ucla, but they don't play MSU.


SEC:
- UGA: has been on a slide (1-5 in their last 6) and have some tough games coming up (@UK, @ #19 Vandy, vs #25 Bama). is J. Wilk injured? He hasn't played in their last two.
- Mizzou: plays Vandy and #20 Arky twice
- aTm: has lost 4 in a row and play @ Arky, vs UT, vs UK

WCC:
Santa Clara: plays @ USF, @ SMC, & vs OSU.

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calumnus
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In reply to bearfan93 • 2:41p, 2/17/26
bearfan93 said:
if we go 5-0 I don't think we'll have to sweat it out on Sunday.
4-1 and we'll be sweating.
3-2 or worse and unlikely.

Listed the noteable remaining games for some of these other bubble teams. I didn't list games that they still have vs teams that won't be in the tourney/aren't on Bubble Watch:

Big Ten:
- tOSU: vs #24 Wiscy, @ #15 MSU, @ Iowa, vs #7 Purdue
- UCLA: @ #15 MSU, vs #10 Illini, vs #9 Nebraska, play u$c twice. I don't know if we want them to win in order to make our H2H look better or if we want them to lose to open up another spot. Since it's the bruins i'll root for them to lose.
- U$C: basically the same schedule as ucla, but they don't play MSU.


SEC:
- UGA: has been on a slide (1-5 in their last 6) and have some tough games coming up (@UK, @ #19 Vandy, vs #25 Bama). is J. Wilk injured? He hasn't played in their last two.
- Mizzou: plays Vandy and #20 Arky twice
- aTm: has lost 4 in a row and play @ Arky, vs UT, vs UK

WCC:
Santa Clara: plays @ USF, @ SMC, & vs OSU.



We have a great shot if we go 5-0. However, it just isn't true that, as some say, what others do won't affect us. In addition to needing others above us to falter (and the chances some will is good) we also need the current projected top seeds to win their conference tournaments/receive their conferences autobids, because usually there is an upset somewhere and someone sneaks in that way leaving fewer at-large spots for bubble teams like us.

While it is true that "all we can control is winning the remaining games we have" that is only true for our team, not for us as fans. As fans we have no control over any of this. We can root for our team to win and if we want root for our competition to lose. Or just root for Cal and "trust." But nothing is certain and our rooting won't change that.
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bearsandgiants
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3:20p, 2/17/26
If we had one single loud Cal fan cheering for the Bears, yelling at the officials, and screaming when Syracuse was at the free throw line, we would have won that game. That was my plan. And the damn snow storm ruined everything.
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ManBearLion123
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7:15p, 2/17/26
VA Tech lost to Miami tonight. Nice result for us.

Looks like Ohio State will pick up a ranked win, though, unfortunately.
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baytobreakers
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9:14p, 2/17/26
In addition to VT, TCU and SDSU both go down. Two of the teams in most "last four in" selections
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Johnfox
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9:35p, 2/17/26
So San Diego State just suffered a horrific loss at home to GCU. We move ahead of them.

Our Miami win is looking very nice. On the road without Lee Dort and we somehow beat them.

We need UNC and UCLA to get their acts together ASAP

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Cal88
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In reply to Johnfox • 10:27p, 2/17/26
Johnfox said:
So San Diego State just suffered a horrific loss at home to GCU. We move ahead of them.

Our Miami win is looking very nice. On the road without Lee Dort and we somehow beat them.

We need UNC and UCLA to get their acts together ASAP


UNC didn't get the memo, lost tonight by 34 points against NCSt! Wolfpack is not a bubble team though, they are a lock.

Miami on the other hand did us a favor and beat VT, which is also a ACC bubble team, so that helps.
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barsad
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In reply to Cal88 • 11:12p, 2/17/26
Cal88 said:
Johnfox said:
So San Diego State just suffered a horrific loss at home to GCU. We move ahead of them.

Our Miami win is looking very nice. On the road without Lee Dort and we somehow beat them.

We need UNC and UCLA to get their acts together ASAP


UNC didn't get the memo, lost tonight by 34 points against NCSt! Wolfpack is not a bubble team though, they are a lock.

Miami on the other hand did us a favor and beat VT, which is also a ACC bubble team, so that helps.

Daily bracketology makes my head hurt. You don't need predictive analytics and bubble-tracking to figure it out. Win 5 = we're in; Win 4 = coin flip chance; Win 3 = start the 2026 portal watch.
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Cal88
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In reply to barsad • 5:15a, 2/18/26
barsad said:
Cal88 said:
Johnfox said:
So San Diego State just suffered a horrific loss at home to GCU. We move ahead of them.

Our Miami win is looking very nice. On the road without Lee Dort and we somehow beat them.

We need UNC and UCLA to get their acts together ASAP


UNC didn't get the memo, lost tonight by 34 points against NCSt! Wolfpack is not a bubble team though, they are a lock.

Miami on the other hand did us a favor and beat VT, which is also a ACC bubble team, so that helps.

Daily bracketology makes my head hurt. You don't need predictive analytics and bubble-tracking to figure it out. Win 5 = we're in; Win 4 = coin flip chance; Win 3 = start the 2026 portal watch.


Look at it this way, if we're doing daily bracketology in late February, it means that the Wyking Jones and Mark fox eras truly are behind us. We want to be discussing bracketology in late February.
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bearfan93
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11:28a, 2/18/26
Ohio State, UGA and Iowa winning probably doesn't do us any favors.

Regardless, it is so nice having so much to root for this late in the season.

Go Bears!
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RedlessWardrobe
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In reply to bearfan93 • 12:31p, 2/18/26
bearfan93 said:
Ohio State, UGA and Iowa winning probably doesn't do us any favors.

Regardless, it is so nice having so much to root for this late in the season.

Go Bears!

I don't think Iowa's win made any difference. They look like they're already in.
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HKBear97!
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In reply to Cal88 • 1:28p, 2/18/26
Cal88 said:
barsad said:
Cal88 said:
Johnfox said:
So San Diego State just suffered a horrific loss at home to GCU. We move ahead of them.

Our Miami win is looking very nice. On the road without Lee Dort and we somehow beat them.

We need UNC and UCLA to get their acts together ASAP


UNC didn't get the memo, lost tonight by 34 points against NCSt! Wolfpack is not a bubble team though, they are a lock.

Miami on the other hand did us a favor and beat VT, which is also a ACC bubble team, so that helps.

Daily bracketology makes my head hurt. You don't need predictive analytics and bubble-tracking to figure it out. Win 5 = we're in; Win 4 = coin flip chance; Win 3 = start the 2026 portal watch.


Look at it this way, if we're doing daily bracketology in late February, it means that the Wyking Jones and Mark fox eras truly are behind us. We want to be discussing bracketology in late February.

True, although barsad does have a point. How Cal does the rest of the season is obviously the key factor. After that, I think the bigger influence will be conference tournaments, specifically upsets that take away any bubble spots. Trying to figure out how other bubble teams do now in the regular season and the knock-on effects for Cal seems a bit futile.
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NarangS19
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2:53p, 2/18/26
Today, we should be rooting against Oklahoma State, Missouri, USC, and West Virginia. The first three are playing ranked teams, so root for them, and West Virginia is playing Utah, so pray for a big upset.
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Onebearofpower
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In reply to HKBear97! • 3:38p, 2/18/26
I mean it is true to an extent but the "coin flip" territory completely depends on the games we are talking about. If these other bubble teams lose a majority of games it is a big deal for both tourney hopes and seeding. Obviously Cal still has to win games.
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BearlyCareAnymore
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In reply to Johnfox • 9:04p, 2/18/26
Johnfox said:
So San Diego State just suffered a horrific loss at home to GCU. We move ahead of them.

Our Miami win is looking very nice. On the road without Lee Dort and we somehow beat them.

We need UNC and UCLA to get their acts together ASAP



How is that loss horrific? And SDSU is still 17 spots ahead in Net rankings
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Johnfox
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9:53p, 2/18/26
Well, that's the equivalent to Cal taking a 12 point loss at home to Stanfurd.
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calumnus
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In reply to BearlyCareAnymore • 10:47p, 2/18/26
BearlyCareAnymore said:
Johnfox said:
So San Diego State just suffered a horrific loss at home to GCU. We move ahead of them.

Our Miami win is looking very nice. On the road without Lee Dort and we somehow beat them.

We need UNC and UCLA to get their acts together ASAP



How is that loss horrific? And SDSU is still 17 spots ahead in Net rankings

Yeah, San Diego St is still #44 in NET and #43 in Ken Pom which is where you want to be for an at large bid.
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Onebearofpower
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In reply to calumnus • 1:54a, 2/19/26
It is crazy how these NET rankings make no sense. I mean seriously do wins and losses not matter lol, how are we behind 10-15 providence in KenPom. Boise State lost to Hawaii Pacific and UNLV twice yet we still find ourselves below them in NET.
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calumnus
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In reply to Onebearofpower • 2:56a, 2/19/26
Onebearofpower said:
It is crazy how these NET rankings make no sense. I mean seriously do wins and losses not matter lol, how are we behind 10-15 providence in KenPom. Boise State lost to Hawaii Pacific and UNLV twice yet we still find ourselves below them in NET.

According to Ken Pom we had the #325 OOC schedule, one of the very easiest in the entire country and while we won, we didn't blow teams out. We currently have a losing conference schedule and are in the bottom half of the ACC. We can still win out and finish in the top half with better NET and Ken Pom rankings, but our current rankings are not crazy, they are based solidly on the data and our results to date. If anything, the NET gives is a slight advantage relative to Ken Pom and other more predictive ranking systems.
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Cal88
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In reply to calumnus • 5:09a, 2/19/26
Technically, we're 9th out of 18 in the ACC, smack in the middle at 6-7. We need to win 4 more to get to 10-8.
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Harky4
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In reply to calumnus • 7:24a, 2/19/26
calumnus said:
Onebearofpower said:
It is crazy how these NET rankings make no sense. I mean seriously do wins and losses not matter lol, how are we behind 10-15 providence in KenPom. Boise State lost to Hawaii Pacific and UNLV twice yet we still find ourselves below them in NET.

According to Ken Pom we had the #325 OOC schedule, one of the very easiest in the entire country and while we won, we didn't blow teams out. We currently have a losing conference schedule and are in the bottom half of the ACC. We can still win out and finish in the top half with better NET and Ken Pom rankings, but our current rankings are not crazy, they are based solidly on the data and our results to date. If anything, the NET gives is a slight advantage relative to Ken Pom and other more predictive ranking systems.

100%

Our weak OCC schedule with almost all games in the friendly confines of Haas has allowed us to have a gaudy and deceivingly great W-L record, but such strategy is going to kill us on Selection Sunday IMO
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Cal88
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In reply to Harky4 • 8:00a, 2/19/26
Harky4 said:
calumnus said:
Onebearofpower said:
It is crazy how these NET rankings make no sense. I mean seriously do wins and losses not matter lol, how are we behind 10-15 providence in KenPom. Boise State lost to Hawaii Pacific and UNLV twice yet we still find ourselves below them in NET.

According to Ken Pom we had the #325 OOC schedule, one of the very easiest in the entire country and while we won, we didn't blow teams out. We currently have a losing conference schedule and are in the bottom half of the ACC. We can still win out and finish in the top half with better NET and Ken Pom rankings, but our current rankings are not crazy, they are based solidly on the data and our results to date. If anything, the NET gives is a slight advantage relative to Ken Pom and other more predictive ranking systems.

100%

Our weak OCC schedule with almost all games in the friendly confines of Haas has allowed us to have a gaudy and deceivingly great W-L record, but such strategy is going to kill us on Selection Sunday IMO


Winning Q3 and Q4 games doesn't hurt us, just by being in the ACC we have more than enough attempts at Q1 and Q2 in the ACC, we're 4-5 vs Q1, a very good record for a bubble team, compare with 0-8 for Wake Forest (I guess their Clemson win is Q2), 1-6 for USC, 1-9 Washington, 2-7 UCLA, 1-5 SDSU etc.
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MilleniaBear
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In reply to Onebearofpower • 8:57a, 2/19/26
NET supposedly includes emphasis on most recent games. This favors the ACC teams so the mid majors and small colleges could slide down a bit.
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bearfan93
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In reply to NarangS19 • 9:26a, 2/19/26
3-1 on what we were hoping for.

Mizzou wins, u$c gets blasted, OSU loses to KU and WV loses to a bad Utah team.

all in all, pretty good results.

don't think there are any games of note on the schedule for today.
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Cal88
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In reply to bearfan93 • 9:41a, 2/19/26
bearfan93 said:
3-1 on what we were hoping for.

Mizzou wins, u$c gets blasted, OSU loses to KU and WV loses to a bad Utah team.

all in all, pretty good results.

don't think there are any games of note on the schedule for today.


We went up from 61 to 60 in the NET, I think because WV dropped below us.

USC and UW are B1G bubble teams (7-8 and 5-10 in conf. respectively) who are easy to root against, they have to play UCLA twice, hope UCLA sweeps. UW has a good NE but at 5-10 in conference, an upset or two vs Rutgers, Maryland or BDW Oregon would help there...

Oregon is at the bottom of the B1G at 2-13, I guess uncle Phil is not into hoops...

To go back to our OOC schedule: I think the risk-reward profile for an ACC team with a new roster that needs to gel and is more vulnerable to a bad loss early in the season favors the choice of a soft early schedule. This being said we could have used a couple more Q3s or lower Q2s instead of teams near the bottom of Q4 or even below Q4, say Oregon St or Pepperdine instead of Wright St and Dominican.
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ManBearLion123
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In reply to Onebearofpower • 11:21a, 2/19/26
Onebearofpower said:
It is crazy how these NET rankings make no sense. I mean seriously do wins and losses not matter lol, how are we behind 10-15 providence in KenPom. Boise State lost to Hawaii Pacific and UNLV twice yet we still find ourselves below them in NET.

D2 games don't count toward NET, so that loss to Hawaii Pacific didn't have any effect on their ranking.
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