Since Lundari's last Bracketology update:

[U]Last 4 In[/U]
Arkansas - lost
Tennessee - won
Dayton - won
Nebraska - last game vs #9 Wisconsin

[U]First Four Out[/U]
[COLOR="DarkGreen"]California - won[/COLOR]
Providence - lost to #13 Creighton
Minnesota - last game vs Penn St
Florida State - last game vs #7 Syracuse

[U]Next Four Out[/U]
Missouri - lost - last game vs Texas A&M
St. John's - won - last game vs Providence
Georgetown - lost to #6 Villanova - last game vs Depaul
Louisiana Tech

Our win and Arkansas's loss my be just enough to get us into the last 4 in, but then we need to worry about conference tournament upsets

We probably need to win 1 in the Pac12 tournament to be be very nervous on selection sunday, and 2 wins to be relatively 'safe'