I was hoping the CU win would raise the RPI a little more.

Certainly a first round win is a must this week, and even that might not be enough.

Conference RPI
Arizona -1
Oregon -25
UCLA -26
Colorado -31
ASU -38
Stanford -43
Cal -56

Well Cal isn't in the first round. A first round bye than play either CU or USC in the second round. I agree that one win in the tournament would punch the ticket. With a loss there Cal would be 7th team with 6 selected

The wildcard here is how many non qualifiers will win there conference tournaments and harden the bubble. You just never know until things sort out a little more.

One of the first four out in today's updated bracket from Jerry Palm
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

TheSwede;842290865 said:

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One of the first four out in today's updated bracket from Jerry Palm
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

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In what universe is Arkansas above us after yesterday?

CalFan4Ever;842290877 said:

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In what universe is Arkansas above us after yesterday?

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It's close, but Arkansas is finishing strong. They are 21-10 but 8-2 in the last 10 games including a win at Kentucky.

hoop97;842290882 said:

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It's close, but Arkansas is finishing strong. They are 21-10 but 8-2 in the last 10 games including a win at Kentucky.

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We beat them and they got THROTTLED by ALABAMA yesterday. We have a win over UA in our last 10 which is way, way better than UK.

hoop97;842290882 said:

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It's close, but Arkansas is finishing strong. They are 21-10 but 8-2 in the last 10 games including a win at Kentucky.

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Why you no wear your Blue and Gold prescription eyeglasses no more?

:p

Here is what Lunardi had on March 6th and the wins/losses for teams since then:

Last Four Byes

• Oregon (won)
  
  
• BYU (won)
  
  
• Xavier (lost to Villanova)
  
  
• Saint Joseph's (won)
  
  

Last Four In

• Arkansas (lost to Alabama)
  
  
• Tennessee (won)
  
  
• Dayton (won)
  
  
• Nebraska (will likely lose to Wisky tonight)
  
  

First Four Out

• California (beat Colorado)
  
  
• Providence (lost to Creighton)
  
  
• Minnesota (plays Penn St today)
  
  
• Florida State (play Syracuse today)
  
  

Seems to me that with all the potential losses among team above us since the last bracket projection that we should move up some, possibly into the top of the last four in. We have to win our first tournament game to get off the play in game.

CalFan4Ever;842290885 said:

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We beat them and they got THROTTLED by ALABAMA yesterday. We have a win over UA in our last 10 which is way, way better than UK.

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Good points but it is still close. Frankly, a win on a neutral court in November will carry less weight than a stumble down the stretch. Arkansas got blown out by Bama, which is not good. However, we have had multiple blowout losses during that time. I hope the committee follows your lead than mine - just trying to point out that it is not absurd to have Arkansas over Cal. Right now we need to leap frog Nebraska before Arkanasa in this particular prognostication.

It will all come down to conference tourneys at this stage.

hoop97;842290892 said:

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Good points but it is still close. Frankly, a win on a neutral court in November will carry less weight than a stumble down the stretch. Arkansas got blown out by Bama, which is not good. However, we have had multiple blowout losses during that time. I hope the committee follows your lead than mine - just trying to point out that it is not absurd to have Arkansas over Cal. Right now we need to leap frog Nebraska before Arkanasa in this particular prognostication.

It will all come down to conference tourneys at this stage.

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I'm not sure it's worth fretting over where the brackets are right now.

We win 1, we are in. We lose, we are out. We more or less control our own destiny (unless some weird crap happens in the mid major tourneys)

ducky23;842290894 said:

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I'm not sure it's worth fretting over where the brackets are right now.

We win 1, we are in. We lose, we are out. We more or less control our own destiny (unless some weird crap happens in the mid major tourneys)

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I like that analysis the best.

RPI is a slippery thing. Since the actual NCAA formula is secret, the various rankings you see are the various outlets attempting to guess what the RPI would be as of now.

ESPN's RPI has us at 52 right now:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi

CBS has us at 56:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/rpi/index1

Who is correct? Who knows? But we are in a cluster with other bubble teams like Georgetown, Providence, Arkansas, Minnesota, etc., and probably need another win to distinguish ourselves. If it comes against Colorado again (high RPI) then that would probably put us in. Ironically, Arkansas doing better may also help us, because that could give us another Top 50 RPI win.

hoop97;842290898 said:

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I like that analysis the best.

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Well the big caveat being if sc beats cu. Then it gets dicey.

I still haven't decided whether to root for sc or cu. A cal win over sc may still get cal in, but you're leaving a lot to fate and what other teams will do. If you play cu, you more or less control your own destiny. Although sc is the much easier game. In theory.

My head says to root for cu since that is the better mathematical play.

But my heart says sc, cause as a cal fan, it always seems more likely that other teams will lose (ie bubble teams) then cal will actually win a big game.

At least by playing sc in the second round instead of the first, there's the advantage that cal will probably play az next, which is a SOS and rpi boost.

Seriously, the Bears don't look like a dancing team recently. Chances of beating Colo again seem slim. I'd take the play-in vs NIT though.

GBMARIN;842290915 said:

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Seriously, the Bears don't look like a dancing team recently. Chances of beating Colo again seem slim.

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Yeah well cal will probably be favored over cu, but what does vegas know.

Bobodeluxe;842290890 said:

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Why you no wear your Blue and Gold prescription eyeglasses no more?

:p

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That is funny - good stuff.

ducky23;842290918 said:

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Yeah well cal will probably be favored over cu, but what does vegas know.

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How do you come by that?

CU vs Cal at a neutral site? CU will be favored, not that it matters much

I think the crowd bothered Colorado at the end.on a neutral court,we have to find a way to stop #40. Much stronger than kravish. Maybe try solomon

TheSwede;842290947 said:

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How do you come by that?

CU vs Cal at a neutral site? CU will be favored, not that it matters much

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Cal was -5 at home. 3 point home court adv plus maybe 2 points for senior night....maybe. So it's basically a pick em on a neutral court. But vegas will factor in fact that cal already beat cu once and that cu playing twice in two nights.

TheSwede;842290848 said:

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I was hoping the CU win would raise the RPI a little more.

Certainly a first round win is a must this week, and even that might not be enough.

Conference RPI
Arizona -1
Oregon -25
UCLA -26
Colorado -31
ASU -38
Stanford -43
Cal -56

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Sagarin's Predictor (FWIW)
Arizona 1
UCLA 21
Oregon 24
ASU 31
Utah 33
Stan 35
Colo 53
Cal 60
OSU 91
UW 97
USC 144
WSU 167

Let's hope these guys are right...

NCAA Tournament Dance Card

The formula isn't secret. Sometimes individual sites are slow or get data wrong, like neutral site games or counting wins vs. lower division schools.

A "second round" win over Colorado followed by a loss to Arizona would almost certainly get us in both for boosting our RPI and notching another quality win.

A win over USC might not be enough because their win percentage isn't good. Losing to someone other than Arizona in the semifinal would also be bad for the RPI.