http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Didn't move one iota off the last four out. I think Nebraska beating Wisconsin is going to doooooom us in the end. I fear we will need to beat AZ assuming we get by our first opponent in the Pac12 tournament.

Plus 1

A second win over Colorado and some good fortune around the nation involving teams on the bubble may sneak the Bears in. The losses over the weekend by some other Pac 12 teams did not help the Bears case.

Lunardi is very good at selecting the teams that make the tourney, not as good at seeding them. For him to have Cal out going in to the conference tourneys is not a good thing. Cannot see the Bears winning the Pac 12 tourney, but a second win over Colorado is certainly possible.

The consensus here seems to be that the Bears will end up where they deserve. Can't ask for more.

:gobears:

We are who we think we are ! (?)

Some of those other teams just above us on the bubble will probably take losses in their conference tourneys. We could leapfrog them with a win over CU. Either way we'll be sweating it out on selection day, unless we make a deep run in the Pac-12 Tourney.

Ok, so here's the good news.

These are the teams that are Cal's main competition (according to Lunardi's last 4 in)

Arkansas
Tennesee
Dayton
St. Joe

Arkansas plays Tennessee in the SEC tourney. (unless arkansas loses in the first round against the #12 seed - in that case they are out anyways). So that game is probably a play-in game, can't see them both getting in over Cal (assuming Cal beats CU) since one of them is going to lose.

Guess who Dayton plays in their conference tourney? Thats right, St Joes. So he above scenario applies as well.

To be safe, root against Arkansas and St Joe (as they have the weaker resumes). St. Joe especially. The have lost 2 in a row (the last game at home to La Salle - that alone should keep them out) and if they lose to Dayton, that would be 3 straight. No way they are in.

Lastly, root hard hard hard against furd against WSU. A loss against a bottom dweller probably keeps them out.

This is encouraging:

This Model Has Predicted 73 Of 74 NCAA Tournament At-Large Bids

Couple of interesting possible match-ups of neighbors who rarely meet if this bracket were to come to fruition: 1st round tOSU/Xavier and possible regional title game KU/WSU.

BC Calfan;842291184 said:

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This is encouraging:

This Model Has Predicted 73 Of 74 NCAA Tournament At-Large Bids

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This model apparently puts a strong emphasis on road wins, which partly explains why Cal is so high.

Hopefully they are right.

When it comes to splitting hairs in selection then you have to goto the selection committee membership....do we have any friends there? Enemies?

Selection committee dynamics change all the time, but historically past committees have not placed a great deal of emphasis on conference tourney results unless you win one. This year it could be different. IMO it would be very hard to take Colorado, but exclude the Bears should Cal beat Colorado Thursday in that expected matchup. 2 wins against Colorado at the end should get them in ahead of Colorado.

Right now most brackets have Colorado safely in, and the Bears just barely out or barely in. It is possible that Cal could beat Colorado and both go. But I have a hard time believing 7 Pac 12 teams get in. IMO Stanford, Colorado and Cal may be playing for spots 5 & 6. I expect Oregon and ASU to join UCLA and Arizona in the field regardless of their conference tourney results.

BC Calfan;842291184 said:

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This is encouraging:

This Model Has Predicted 73 Of 74 NCAA Tournament At-Large Bids

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How is SMU even on the bubble? Weren't they Top 25 like a week ago?

6956bear;842291256 said:

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Selection committee dynamics change all the time, but historically past committees have not placed a great deal of emphasis on conference tourney results unless you win one. This year it could be different. IMO it would be very hard to take Colorado, but exclude the Bears should Cal beat Colorado Thursday in that expected matchup. 2 wins against Colorado at the end should get them in ahead of Colorado.

Right now most brackets have Colorado safely in, and the Bears just barely out or barely in. It is possible that Cal could beat Colorado and both go. But I have a hard time believing 7 Pac 12 teams get in. IMO Stanford, Colorado and Cal may be playing for spots 5 & 6. I expect Oregon and ASU to join UCLA and Arizona in the field regardless of their conference tourney results.

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Colorado is almost certainly in whether they beat USC and Cal or not because they have a good RPI. The only Pac-12 team I could see Cal jumping into the field is Stanford if they were to lose to Washington St.

I cant think of a better way to get into the NCAAs then to steal Stanford's bid. The only downside might be that they fire Dawkins

I feel like Cal has been close to the bubble for a few years in a row. Every year we still get into the tournament. It just always works out that way and I don't see a reason to doubt we will get in this year.

In fact the moment you doubt Cal the most is usually when they surprise us and run off a few victories.

When Cal wins the Pac-12 tournament over UCLA this Saturday we will be all talking about how Monty is the greatest coach and if we deserve a 7 seed

Optimistic Bear;842291277 said:

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I feel like Cal has been close to the bubble for a few years in a row. Every year we still get into the tournament. It just always works out that way and I don't see a reason to doubt we will get in this year.

In fact the moment you doubt Cal the most is usually when they surprise us and run off a few victories.

When Cal wins the Pac-12 tournament over UCLA this Saturday we will be all talking about how Monty is the greatest coach and if we deserve a 7 seed

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I admire your commitment to the philosophy behind your username.

OB, do you think any negative thoughts? Or is it all sunshine and roses?

#stayininvegastilsaturday!

i think they got to beat CU and AZ to get in. i think we only deserve to get in if we can accomplish that or come very close, perhaps playing AZ to a real close game. otherwise all bets are off, they havent played well enough down the stretch and i think that matters. the last good game we played was against Arizona. thats a long time to go and not play well. except maybe the win against UW but even then they had a pretty bad first half

gobears725;842291328 said:

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i think they got to beat CU and AZ to get in. i think we only deserve to get in if we can accomplish that or come very close, perhaps playing AZ to a real close game. otherwise all bets are off, they havent played well enough down the stretch and i think that matters. the last good game we played was against Arizona. thats a long time to go and not play well. except maybe the win against UW but even then they had a pretty bad first half

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So beating Colorado on Saturday doesn't count?

I agree that Colorado seems secure, but if Cal beats them twice in 5 days and gets left out then why play the games. Just my opinion, but head to head matchups matter. The teams would really be very close on paper with Cal having won the head to head 2-0.

Maybe in that case the committee would be compelled to take 7 Pac 12 teams.

sycasey;842291346 said:

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So beating Colorado on Saturday doesn't count?

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they won, but i still didnt think that they played particularly well. im just saying the commitee tends to reward teams that play well down the stretch. we havent been. i think we're more behind the 8-ball than what some people think. i sort of think that we need to beat arizona to get in and wouldnt be surprised if only one of us, colorado and stanford get into the tourney, depending on which bubble teams do well in their respective conference tournaments. 2 gets us in. 1 and we'll probably need some help from other teams losing early

All of this conjecture is interesting but I think we're all missing an important perspective. The way we've been playing, I'm not convinced we'd win our first round NCAA game. So really, is it worth debating and praying our team into the tourney? Perhaps we can tell recruits 'hey we made it to the tourney' but I'm not convinced we'd do any damage there.

Now, the caveat is that I *do* believe we have the talent and potential to do damage, but I haven't seen that team for weeks. At this point, I wonder if a deep NIT run is better than another one-and-done NCAA.

Hope wsu beats Stanford

pretty impressive prediction for the 2 years
I like that Cal is far above the cutoff line in this analysis, so there is margin for conference tourney upsets and still a margin for error

what is the prediction accuracy of Lunardi the last 2 years (getting in, not seed)?

BC Calfan;842291184 said:

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This is encouraging:

This Model Has Predicted 73 Of 74 NCAA Tournament At-Large Bids

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JerseyGoldenBear;842291356 said:

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All of this conjecture is interesting but I think we're all missing an important perspective. The way we've been playing, I'm not convinced we'd win our first round NCAA game. So really, is it worth debating and praying our team into the tourney? Perhaps we can tell recruits 'hey we made it to the tourney' but I'm not convinced we'd do any damage there.

Now, the caveat is that I *do* believe we have the talent and potential to do damage, but I haven't seen that team for weeks. At this point, I wonder if a deep NIT run is better than another one-and-done NCAA.

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i still would rather have our players have the experience of playing in the ncaa tournament. we do have enough talent that i could see us upsetting a team or two if we can play well and play focused. i feel like our team is capable of beating almost anyone. get in and you never know if you can be this years cinderella.

6956bear;842291349 said:

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I agree that Colorado seems secure, but if Cal beats them twice in 5 days and gets left out then why play the games. Just my opinion, but head to head matchups matter. The teams would really be very close on paper with Cal having won the head to head 2-0.

Maybe in that case the committee would be compelled to take 7 Pac 12 teams.

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Its the non-conference results that put Colorado ahead, but that is when they had Dinwiddie....so how does the committee assess them without Dinwiddie? Not sure but I think they are in easily even with a loss to SC.

SFBearz;842291368 said:

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Its the non-conference results that put Colorado ahead, but that is when they had Dinwiddie....so how does the committee assess them without Dinwiddie? Not sure but I think they are in easily even with a loss to SC.

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Don't have to. They played quite a few games after he went down

gobears725;842291354 said:

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they won, but i still didnt think that they played particularly well.

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I thought they played well on defense, though the offense was balky (as usual).

gobears725;842291354 said:

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i think we're more behind the 8-ball than what some people think.

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There's nothing to base that on, though. If you peruse predictions from people who follow this for a living we are either barely in or barely out right now, right on the borderline. So we're not that far behind the 8-ball.

gobears725;842291354 said:

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1 and we'll probably need some help from other teams losing early

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Here's the thing: we will get it. As ducky pointed out in a couple of threads, there are four teams sitting near us on the bubble: Arkansas, Tennessee, Dayton, and St. Joseph's. The way things are set up, those teams will play each other early in their conference tournaments, so at least two of them will be taking losses. That means a win over Colorado opens the door.

One other piece of good news: no bid-stealing will be happening in the WCC, as it's Gonzaga vs. BYU in the final, two teams who were expected to get in anyway.

its just tough for me to wrap my head around getting in when we have won only 5 of our last 13 games. at least if we win 2 games then its like but we won 3 of 4 to close thr year. it just seems like some point they need to make a stronger case to me. i feel like right now, perhaps it feels like backing into a bid and it just seems rare that we'd be that lucky

Here's how it's going to go. We beat Colorado where in we lose we're out or on the bubble again as we are now.

yes, and I believe in the tooth fairy and santa (not my dad) would get me presents.

:rolleyes:

All above is interesting math and statistics, but doesn't address the team's struggle in recent weeks to find any kind of momentum (was that tactful enough?). Frankly, I don't think this team belongs in the NCAA's, based on the criteria that seem to apply. Oregon doesn't belong either, having done little in conference play, BUT, because of their dazzling non-conference run, they seem to have a pass. Maybe better for our underclassmen who seem to have disappeared of late to play several NIT games and get the feel of a post-season where they are not overmatched.

Deutsch;842291431 said:

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All above is interesting math and statistics, but doesn't address the team's struggle in recent weeks to find any kind of momentum (was that tactful enough?). Frankly, I don't think this team belongs in the NCAA's, based on the criteria that seem to apply.

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What criteria exactly? For one thing, it's not like the Hall of Fame, where you either reach a certain standard or you're out. The committee is just trying to pick the best remaining teams to fill out the bracket. What's the old saying? "If you're being chased by a bear, it doesn't matter if you're faster than the bear, just that you're faster than the other guy." It's not about whether or not Cal meets some kind of arbitrary "tournament worthy" standard, it's about whether or not the committee thinks they are better than other teams also vying for spots in the tournament.

As to what the committee considers, while they do give some weight to recent play, mostly it's about your body of work for the entire season. For Cal, we have some advantages:

1. Four wins over teams likely to make the tournament (Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, Stanford), two of them on the road. Also, another neutral-court win over a team on the bubble (Arkansas). Two of those wins came in the second half of the season.
2. Finishing above .500 in a tough conference.
3. A reasonably difficult schedule (they like to reward teams who play tough schedules).

All of that is enough to put us on the bubble. The reason we are a bubble team and not safely in is because we took some bad losses (USC, UCSB) and as you say, a mediocre record down the stretch (some of that the committee will chalk up to the schedule getting tougher, but still we could have won more games). But by the criteria the committee usually looks at we are at least close to making the tournament. Those who don't see how we could be considered aren't looking at the right criteria.

Deutsch;842291431 said:

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Oregon doesn't belong either, having done little in conference play, BUT, because of their dazzling non-conference run, they seem to have a pass.

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Conference record isn't everything, but Oregon did finish 10-8 in the Pac-12 thanks to a very strong finish, so it's not like they were terrible in conference. They are 22-8 with a Top-20 SOS and have four wins over likely tournament teams: Arizona, UCLA, ASU, BYU, plus another over a bubble team (Georgetown). It's about the full body of work, and Oregon's makes them a lock.