How the Cavs can beat the Dubs in Game 6

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ducky23
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Blatt is getting a lot of heat for going small and benching Mozgov. I honestly don't think that there is a right answer to this.

- If the Cavs play Mozgov, it severely hurts your defense and I'm not sure Mozgov necessarily makes up for it on the offensive end. When Mozgov was in during the 1st Q last night, the Dubs simply doubled him whenever he touched the ball in the post and the Cavs turned the ball over 4-5 times within the first few minutes of the game. You simply cannot turn the ball over against the Dubs, which is why Mozgov was pulled.

- If the Cavs don't play Mozgov, then you supposedly play right into the hands of the Dubs, because the Dubs can play small ball better and the Cavs are also shortening their already short bench by not playing Mozgov.

So its really a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario for Blatt. He simply does not have a lot of options. Which is why most talking heads are already assuming the Dubs take game 6, especially after only 1 day of rest.

-------------------
HOWEVER, I think there is a strategy that the Cavs can employ that could get them Game 6, and I'd actually be mildly surprised if the Cavs don't do it.

They have to go "all in" on hack-a-iggy.

Lets say, best case scenario, Iggy makes 50% of his fts (I think that's best case for Iggy). That a little over 1 point per possession (have to take into account a couple offensive rebounds off missed fts). Again, that's best case for the warriors. Iggy could also go 1-10 again.

So there are so many advantages for the Cavs if they go hack-a-iggy

- The Warriors are a rhythm offense. you take them out of that rhythm and they become beatable
- You completely slow the game down. With each FT attempt, it gives Lebron and co. a rest. Its like a mini time out. You make iggy shoot like 40 free throws, that's a ton of rest. plus, the Cavs won't have to play defense, thats even more rest. That will allow Lebron to play the entire game and also maybe the Cavs aren't completely gassed by the 4th quarter
- You can make the game as ugly as possible. You foul Iggy on one end, and then just ISO Lebron on the other, and take as much clock as possible. Again, the uglier you make the game, the better for the Cavs. at some point, it will get into the dubs' heads, especially if Iggy starts missing a ton.
- You can start playing marginal defensive players (like Miller, Marion, Jones) heavier minutes (thus lengthening their bench) because if they don't have to play defense, they are no longer liabilities. a player like miller may have some value if he doesn't have to play defense
- You may eventually force Iggy out of the game. which would be killer for the dubs because he's the best defender you can stick on Lebron.

The one worry is that the Cavs will be accumulating a ton of fouls. but between Marion, Miller and Jones, that is 18 fouls and 36 free throws from Iggy.

I'm not saying you foul Iggy every single time. But maybe you foul him one possession, play defense on one possession, and then foul him the next possession. By mixing it up, it will really disrupt the Warriors rhythm.

This strategy is not ideal. But what choice do the Cavs have at this point?
Strykur
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I am sure the Cavs will re-examine Mozgov in Game 6 but David Lee is the neutralizer I think.
sycasey
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Yeah, the hack-a strategy might be all they have left. Problem with this is that the more you make a guy shoot, you run the risk that he gets into a rhythm and starts making them. That's why teams only employ it for brief stretches or when in desperation mode.
gobears
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Game 6 and Hack an Iggy? yes, would try it and see if Iggy's continues his FT "shooter's block" and just cannot make FT...
hopefully he works on this later today (late GSW practice after flight)...

Curry after the 1st few games have figured out Della's D physical play and has countered with some shake/bake moves past him along with some step back 3's...
so, I expect Curry to continue to shoot well..... with combo of both step back 3's, fast break 3's, and some drives to cup or tear drop in lane.

GSW, I would harass Lebron when he is dribbling ball with Della's man and make Lebron pass off to Della.... More the ball is in Della's hand vs Lebron the better...


Cavs? Would do high pick and roll with Curry's man and force Curry to try to guard Lebron... anytime Lebron has "small small" , pond the paint....
goal is to get Lebron/Curry match ups and try to get Curry into foul trouble... (not shoot 3's when Lebron has small on him)

Cavs going small or big when GSW are playing small...(which is now all the time).. I would go more with Mozgof on weak side low block... Kristen on elbow to flash to rim on all shots...moving (hard to block out when he is moving)

with travel day and short time between games, harder for Cavs to make changes to game 6 plans... (good).. along with less time for players to rest up..(good) as GSW is deep than Cavs...

1 W from Championship... (40 years apart from last GSW championship)... so so close now.. GSW, nail it Tues... as they did vs Memphis series.

go gsW
:gobears:
boredom
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Iguodala is a career 71% ft shooter. This season he was at 60%. He's struggled in the playoffs sure but he's capable of hitting enough to make this a losing strategy. This isn't Deandre Jordan where you know he's a terrible ft shooter. It's reasonable to try it out and see if Andre is missing but I wouldn't build a gameplan around that working. He's presumably putting some work into before game 6.

If I'm Cleveland I play Mozgov and use my size advantage. That doesn't necessarily mean slow developing post ups for Mozgov, but if he can get deep position where he can make a quick move I'd throw it down there to him. Otherwise have him and Thompson pound the glass. The problem for us is that super-small-ball only really works with Draymond in the game. If Mozgov can wear him down and get him in foul trouble that's a big issue. David Lee can handle a lot of the offensive responsibilities Green has (minus the 3 point shooting) but he's a bad defender. Cleveland hasn't really attacked him for some reason.

Defensively Mozgov gives them rim protection which they miss when Miller or Jones takes his place. He's forced to cover a guy like Iguodala defensively but I think if Cleveland is willing to live with Iguodala shooting free throws then they can live with him shooting 3s. If David Lee is in then Mozgov can guard Lee.
bearister
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How the Cavs can beat the Dubs in Game 6: By getting the NBA suits to crunch the numbers and figure out that a Game 7 will generate more scratch than Games 1-6 in the aggregate.

gobears725
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ducky23;842506577 said:

Blatt is getting a lot of heat for going small and benching Mozgov. I honestly don't think that there is a right answer to this.

- If the Cavs play Mozgov, it severely hurts your defense and I'm not sure Mozgov necessarily makes up for it on the offensive end. When Mozgov was in during the 1st Q last night, the Dubs simply doubled him whenever he touched the ball in the post and the Cavs turned the ball over 4-5 times within the first few minutes of the game. You simply cannot turn the ball over against the Dubs, which is why Mozgov was pulled.

- If the Cavs don't play Mozgov, then you supposedly play right into the hands of the Dubs, because the Dubs can play small ball better and the Cavs are also shortening their already short bench by not playing Mozgov.

So its really a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario for Blatt. He simply does not have a lot of options. Which is why most talking heads are already assuming the Dubs take game 6, especially after only 1 day of rest.

-------------------
HOWEVER, I think there is a strategy that the Cavs can employ that could get them Game 6, and I'd actually be mildly surprised if the Cavs don't do it.

They have to go "all in" on hack-a-iggy.

Lets say, best case scenario, Iggy makes 50% of his fts (I think that's best case for Iggy). That a little over 1 point per possession (have to take into account a couple offensive rebounds off missed fts). Again, that's best case for the warriors. Iggy could also go 1-10 again.

So there are so many advantages for the Cavs if they go hack-a-iggy

- The Warriors are a rhythm offense. you take them out of that rhythm and they become beatable
- You completely slow the game down. With each FT attempt, it gives Lebron and co. a rest. Its like a mini time out. You make iggy shoot like 40 free throws, that's a ton of rest. plus, the Cavs won't have to play defense, thats even more rest. That will allow Lebron to play the entire game and also maybe the Cavs aren't completely gassed by the 4th quarter
- You can make the game as ugly as possible. You foul Iggy on one end, and then just ISO Lebron on the other, and take as much clock as possible. Again, the uglier you make the game, the better for the Cavs. at some point, it will get into the dubs' heads, especially if Iggy starts missing a ton.
- You can start playing marginal defensive players (like Miller, Marion, Jones) heavier minutes (thus lengthening their bench) because if they don't have to play defense, they are no longer liabilities. a player like miller may have some value if he doesn't have to play defense
- You may eventually force Iggy out of the game. which would be killer for the dubs because he's the best defender you can stick on Lebron.

The one worry is that the Cavs will be accumulating a ton of fouls. but between Marion, Miller and Jones, that is 18 fouls and 36 free throws from Iggy.

I'm not saying you foul Iggy every single time. But maybe you foul him one possession, play defense on one possession, and then foul him the next possession. By mixing it up, it will really disrupt the Warriors rhythm.

This strategy is not ideal. But what choice do the Cavs have at this point?


i can see them doing it at the end of quarters to try to steal a couple of possessions. they just got to hope their role players, shumpert, smith get hot and stay hot the entire game. otherwise its over.
gobears
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gobears725;842506609 said:

i can see them doing it at the end of quarters to try to steal a couple of possessions. they just got to hope their role players, shumpert, smith get hot and stay hot the entire game. otherwise its over.


Tristan Thompson has not been that good at FT line, but was 7 of 10 in game 5.. So, if Iggy starts off bad from FT line (0 for 3 or thereabouts) you go back and continue to try... if 3 for 3, you see he has been able to get over mental block..and refrain from tactic..

let's see continued repeat of Memphis series.... and close out series with game 6 W.

go gsW
:gobears:
ducky23
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boredom;842506598 said:

Iguodala is a career 71% ft shooter. This season he was at 60%. He's struggled in the playoffs sure but he's capable of hitting enough to make this a losing strategy. This isn't Deandre Jordan where you know he's a terrible ft shooter. It's reasonable to try it out and see if Andre is missing but I wouldn't build a gameplan around that working. He's presumably putting some work into before game 6.

If I'm Cleveland I play Mozgov and use my size advantage. That doesn't necessarily mean slow developing post ups for Mozgov, but if he can get deep position where he can make a quick move I'd throw it down there to him. Otherwise have him and Thompson pound the glass. The problem for us is that super-small-ball only really works with Draymond in the game. If Mozgov can wear him down and get him in foul trouble that's a big issue. David Lee can handle a lot of the offensive responsibilities Green has (minus the 3 point shooting) but he's a bad defender. Cleveland hasn't really attacked him for some reason.

Defensively Mozgov gives them rim protection which they miss when Miller or Jones takes his place. He's forced to cover a guy like Iguodala defensively but I think if Cleveland is willing to live with Iguodala shooting free throws then they can live with him shooting 3s. If David Lee is in then Mozgov can guard Lee.


Iggy is shooting 33% free throws in this series and 41% ft in the playoffs (a pretty large sample size).
He's shooting 40% from 3pt in this series and 35% in the playoffs.

So he's basically shooting a higher percentage from 3pt and its worth 3 points as opposed to 1 point. You can do the math. I think the Cavs would much prefer Iggy shooting open free throws than open threes. Which is why playing Mozgov may not be the best strategy. Also Mozgov can't keep up in transition.
MilleniaBear
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+1. The Dubs have beaten the Cavs twice with small ball AND once with big ball. The guy wearing down after game 3 was Bogut...not just Lebron. Look for Bogut/Fezelli to play some Tuesday. Also Lee will get into it and Barnes will sit - the Dubs need some inside threat and Lee is it.
OdontoBear66
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bearister;842506604 said:

How the Cavs can beat the Dubs in Game 6: By getting the NBA suits to crunch the numbers and figure out that a Game 7 will generate more scratch than Games 1-6 in the aggregate.




+1
boredom
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ducky23;842506632 said:

Iggy is shooting 33% free throws in this series and 41% ft in the playoffs (a pretty large sample size).
He's shooting 40% from 3pt in this series and 35% in the playoffs.

So he's basically shooting a higher percentage from 3pt and its worth 3 points as opposed to 1 point. You can do the math. I think the Cavs would much prefer Iggy shooting open free throws than open threes. Which is why playing Mozgov may not be the best strategy. Also Mozgov can't keep up in transition.


I agree that fouling Andre if they get into the bonus and the Warriors' offense is flowing is worth trying. I just disagree that it's what they should build a gameplan around. I don't think that he forgot how to shoot free throws. One of two things is happening - it's either in his head and he's going to struggle until he hits some or its just a small sample size and he'll revent back to being 60-70% which, even on the low end, is enough to make this a bad strategy. So I think its reasonable to try fouling him a few times and see if he hits free throws. If he starts 4/5 I'd abandon it (which is why it can't be a gameplan). If he starts 1/5 then you keep going. It's not like fouling a truly awful ft shooter who can make a few but will regress toward being bad.

I also disagree that the playoffs are a large sample size for him. He doesn't shoot many fts most games. He's taken 5+ fts in 4 games during the playoffs. He's taken 2 or fewer in 14. Over the last 4 seasons he's shot 62%, 57%, 65%, and 60%. That's a big sample size. Unless they can get into his head about it, I don't see why the expectation wouldn't be that he hits around 60% which would make sending him to the line giving up around 1.2 points per possession.
bluesaxe
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boredom;842506598 said:

Iguodala is a career 71% ft shooter. This season he was at 60%. He's struggled in the playoffs sure but he's capable of hitting enough to make this a losing strategy. This isn't Deandre Jordan where you know he's a terrible ft shooter. It's reasonable to try it out and see if Andre is missing but I wouldn't build a gameplan around that working. He's presumably putting some work into before game 6.

If I'm Cleveland I play Mozgov and use my size advantage. That doesn't necessarily mean slow developing post ups for Mozgov, but if he can get deep position where he can make a quick move I'd throw it down there to him. Otherwise have him and Thompson pound the glass. The problem for us is that super-small-ball only really works with Draymond in the game. If Mozgov can wear him down and get him in foul trouble that's a big issue. David Lee can handle a lot of the offensive responsibilities Green has (minus the 3 point shooting) but he's a bad defender. Cleveland hasn't really attacked him for some reason.

Defensively Mozgov gives them rim protection which they miss when Miller or Jones takes his place. He's forced to cover a guy like Iguodala defensively but I think if Cleveland is willing to live with Iguodala shooting free throws then they can live with him shooting 3s. If David Lee is in then Mozgov can guard Lee.


If mozgov guards Iggy it doesn't mean Iggy is shooting threes, it means the lane is open for drives by other players. Mozgov can't block what he can't get to so the rim protection isn't really there. And he will have the same issues on the block offensively because the W's just send guys at his blind side and he'll keep turning it over.
bluesaxe
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ducky23;842506577 said:

Blatt is getting a lot of heat for going small and benching Mozgov. I honestly don't think that there is a right answer to this.

- If the Cavs play Mozgov, it severely hurts your defense and I'm not sure Mozgov necessarily makes up for it on the offensive end. When Mozgov was in during the 1st Q last night, the Dubs simply doubled him whenever he touched the ball in the post and the Cavs turned the ball over 4-5 times within the first few minutes of the game. You simply cannot turn the ball over against the Dubs, which is why Mozgov was pulled.

- If the Cavs don't play Mozgov, then you supposedly play right into the hands of the Dubs, because the Dubs can play small ball better and the Cavs are also shortening their already short bench by not playing Mozgov.

So its really a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario for Blatt. He simply does not have a lot of options. Which is why most talking heads are already assuming the Dubs take game 6, especially after only 1 day of rest.

-------------------
HOWEVER, I think there is a strategy that the Cavs can employ that could get them Game 6, and I'd actually be mildly surprised if the Cavs don't do it.

They have to go "all in" on hack-a-iggy.

Lets say, best case scenario, Iggy makes 50% of his fts (I think that's best case for Iggy). That a little over 1 point per possession (have to take into account a couple offensive rebounds off missed fts). Again, that's best case for the warriors. Iggy could also go 1-10 again.

So there are so many advantages for the Cavs if they go hack-a-iggy

- The Warriors are a rhythm offense. you take them out of that rhythm and they become beatable
- You completely slow the game down. With each FT attempt, it gives Lebron and co. a rest. Its like a mini time out. You make iggy shoot like 40 free throws, that's a ton of rest. plus, the Cavs won't have to play defense, thats even more rest. That will allow Lebron to play the entire game and also maybe the Cavs aren't completely gassed by the 4th quarter
- You can make the game as ugly as possible. You foul Iggy on one end, and then just ISO Lebron on the other, and take as much clock as possible. Again, the uglier you make the game, the better for the Cavs. at some point, it will get into the dubs' heads, especially if Iggy starts missing a ton.
- You can start playing marginal defensive players (like Miller, Marion, Jones) heavier minutes (thus lengthening their bench) because if they don't have to play defense, they are no longer liabilities. a player like miller may have some value if he doesn't have to play defense
- You may eventually force Iggy out of the game. which would be killer for the dubs because he's the best defender you can stick on Lebron.

The one worry is that the Cavs will be accumulating a ton of fouls. but between Marion, Miller and Jones, that is 18 fouls and 36 free throws from Iggy.

I'm not saying you foul Iggy every single time. But maybe you foul him one possession, play defense on one possession, and then foul him the next possession. By mixing it up, it will really disrupt the Warriors rhythm.

This strategy is not ideal. But what choice do the Cavs have at this point?



I am afraid that's right. Not so much because I don't think the Warriors can't survive it but because it'll just be annoying and ugly when the W's start fouling Thompson whenever he's in.
UrsaMajor
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This is an interesting idea, but the problems w/ it are as you point out you rack up the fouls. While you are correct that Marion, Miller and Jones have 18 fouls to give, in order for them to use the fouls, they need to be in the game (meaning Shumpert, Smith, Delly, or Thompson aren't), thus costing you offense as well as defense.
ducky23
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UrsaMajor;842506664 said:

This is an interesting idea, but the problems w/ it are as you point out you rack up the fouls. While you are correct that Marion, Miller and Jones have 18 fouls to give, in order for them to use the fouls, they need to be in the game (meaning Shumpert, Smith, Delly, or Thompson aren't), thus costing you offense as well as defense.


That's the beauty of it, its not really costing you too much defense because you are going to be fouling when Marion, Miller or Jones are in.

I'd also argue that Miller/Jones are better offensive threats then Shumpert or Delly. The only reason they don't play is because they are such huge defensive liabilities.
UrsaMajor
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In a perverse way, I'd love to see the Cavs try to do it every trip up the floor until Iggy starts killing them from the line or they start fouling out. At least that way, the NBA would be forced to change the rule.

Also, can you imagine how humiliated LeBron would be to be associated with that?
ducky23
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boredom;842506650 said:

I agree that fouling Andre if they get into the bonus and the Warriors' offense is flowing is worth trying. I just disagree that it's what they should build a gameplan around. I don't think that he forgot how to shoot free throws. One of two things is happening - it's either in his head and he's going to struggle until he hits some or its just a small sample size and he'll revent back to being 60-70% which, even on the low end, is enough to make this a bad strategy. So I think its reasonable to try fouling him a few times and see if he hits free throws. If he starts 4/5 I'd abandon it (which is why it can't be a gameplan). If he starts 1/5 then you keep going. It's not like fouling a truly awful ft shooter who can make a few but will regress toward being bad.

I also disagree that the playoffs are a large sample size for him. He doesn't shoot many fts most games. He's taken 5+ fts in 4 games during the playoffs. He's taken 2 or fewer in 14. Over the last 4 seasons he's shot 62%, 57%, 65%, and 60%. That's a big sample size. Unless they can get into his head about it, I don't see why the expectation wouldn't be that he hits around 60% which would make sending him to the line giving up around 1.2 points per possession.


I think we are more or less in agreement. I never implied that you keep fouling Iggy if he's making more than 50% fts. in my opinion, I don't think he is going to. Obviously, you also have plan B and plan C and D if this doesn't work. Its not like you just go out there and say "lets go foul iggy" and if it doesn't work just throw up your hands and say "i give up."

i also think iggy's more recent ft shooting is more indicative of how he will shoot in game 6 then his ft numbers from 3-4 years ago. Unfortunately, iggy's ft shooting has been poor the last couple of months leading up to the playoffs, so if you count those months as well; its a pretty big sample size.

if I were blatt, you play straight up in the first quarter. if the cavs build a lead, then you may want to play straight up the rest of the way. but if the cavs get down 5-10, then you may want to start instituting hack-a-iggy beginning mid 2Q. if you really want to be tricky, you can do it after halftime, then you don't give the dubs time to adjust.
ducky23
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UrsaMajor;842506673 said:

In a perverse way, I'd love to see the Cavs try to do it every trip up the floor until Iggy starts killing them from the line or they start fouling out. At least that way, the NBA would be forced to change the rule.

Also, can you imagine how humiliated LeBron would be to be associated with that?


I agree. If you see Iggy at the line 40+ times in the biggest game of the year for the NBA; they will probably have to do something.
SRBear
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Yes...they would advise those highly paid players to actually learn how to shoot free throws.
gobears725
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SRBear;842506676 said:

Yes...they would advise those highly paid players to actually learn how to shoot free throws.


some guys just arent good shooters like shaq or deandre jordan. iguodala's is mental, if i had to guess its similar to like when chuck knobloch couldnt throw the ball to first base or when golfers get the yips
NVGolfingBear
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ducky23;842506632 said:

Iggy is shooting 33% free throws in this series and 41% ft in the playoffs (a pretty large sample size).
He's shooting 40% from 3pt in this series and 35% in the playoffs.

So he's basically shooting a higher percentage from 3pt and its worth 3 points as opposed to 1 point. You can do the math. I think the Cavs would much prefer Iggy shooting open free throws than open threes. Which is why playing Mozgov may not be the best strategy. Also Mozgov can't keep up in transition.


The Cavs played an 8 man roster on Sunday. At the end of the game Lebron had 5 fouls and 4 others had 4 fouls each. Some of those were hack-a-Iggy foul, but at some point you run out of fouls or force the Cavs to get real tentative on defense late in the game because of fouls. The W's will take a tentative D anytime and turn it into a Championship.
sycasey
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NVGolfingBear;842506702 said:

The Cavs played an 8 man roster on Sunday. At the end of the game Lebron had 5 fouls and 4 others had 4 fouls each. Some of those were hack-a-Iggy foul, but at some point you run out of fouls or force the Cavs to get real tentative on defense late in the game because of fouls. The W's will take a tentative D anytime and turn it into a Championship.


If they have the little-used players deliver the fouls, though . . .
NVGolfingBear
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sycasey;842506706 said:

If they have the little-used players deliver the fouls, though . . .


Then they put the Ws in shooting 1 &1s sooner, so Curry drives and starts shooting foul shots at his 91+% rate. Tough choice for the Cavs
bluesaxe
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Shooting 2. No 1 & 1s in the NBA.
NVGolfingBear
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bluesaxe;842506743 said:

Shooting 2. No 1 & 1s in the NBA.


Duh, I knew that...spaced out thinking about Cal FT shooting.
sycasey
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NVGolfingBear;842506717 said:

Then they put the Ws in shooting 1 &1s sooner, so Curry drives and starts shooting foul shots at his 91+% rate. Tough choice for the Cavs


The idea here is to foul off the ball before Curry can get his shot up. It could work, if Iguodala can't make more than 50%.
bear2034
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Cavs will have to hack Iggy like others have said and beat up Curry. I thought Dellavedova and Shump went soft on Curry last game. Insert Marion and company to provide the fouls, slow down the tempo, and Cavs will have a chance with Lebron taking the shots at the end.
ducky23
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The whole idea is just to get the cavs rest.

Thr cavs could conceivably just use this strategy in the 3rd quarter. Let's say they fouled iggy on every possession in the 3rd. And let's say the cavs play the dubs even in the third quarter. That would be huge.

That would mean the cavs don't have to play a second of defense the entire quarter and can be fresh for the fourth.

I really think this is the way to go. If the cavs play the dubs straight up with only one day's rest, they are going to get runoff the court by the fourth. Just like every other game.
NVGolfingBear
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sycasey;842506761 said:

The idea here is to foul off the ball before Curry can get his shot up. It could work, if Iguodala can't make more than 50%.


Yeah I agree. I just think that the Cavs staff trying a new constant fouling game plan and trying to manage the foul situation is going to put other warriors on the line more frequently. The Cavs can't afford giving up anymore freebies already. The may be more rested because they are watching the Ws taking foul shots late in each period.
sycasey
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joshbalt;842506786 said:

The Warriors average about 25 possessions per quarter and fouling increases the number of possessions because the clock stops (fewer seconds per Warriors possession) so you'd likely have to foul 30-40 times in the quarter.


Hmm, that's a good point. They can't literally do it for the whole quarter or they'll foul out five of their players. We'll probably see it deployed a certain strategic points.

Iggy can make it all academic by hitting more than 50% of his FTs, of course.
Wookids
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I don't think it pays at all to just go and foul anyone before you get in the penalty position (have committed 4 fouls in quarter, so now shooting free throws), and Cleveland hasn't been committing a lot fouls. So far the Cav's have been able to play aggressive D on the splash brothers, and when the ref does call a foul, it's just a non shooting foul. Will love it if they're now all 2 shot fouls (easy points for the Dubs). And my money is on Iggy's fouls shots tomorrow (to good of a player and most certainly flat out pissed he was so awful at the foul line last game), that if he get's 7 or more FT's, he'll be above 50% for the game.
bar20
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ducky23;842506577 said:

Blatt is getting a lot of heat for going small and benching Mozgov. I honestly don't think that there is a right answer to this.

- If the Cavs play Mozgov, it severely hurts your defense and I'm not sure Mozgov necessarily makes up for it on the offensive end. When Mozgov was in during the 1st Q last night, the Dubs simply doubled him whenever he touched the ball in the post and the Cavs turned the ball over 4-5 times within the first few minutes of the game. You simply cannot turn the ball over against the Dubs, which is why Mozgov was pulled.

- If the Cavs don't play Mozgov, then you supposedly play right into the hands of the Dubs, because the Dubs can play small ball better and the Cavs are also shortening their already short bench by not playing Mozgov.

So its really a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario for Blatt. He simply does not have a lot of options. Which is why most talking heads are already assuming the Dubs take game 6, especially after only 1 day of rest.

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HOWEVER, I think there is a strategy that the Cavs can employ that could get them Game 6, and I'd actually be mildly surprised if the Cavs don't do it.

They have to go "all in" on hack-a-iggy.

Lets say, best case scenario, Iggy makes 50% of his fts (I think that's best case for Iggy). That a little over 1 point per possession (have to take into account a couple offensive rebounds off missed fts). Again, that's best case for the warriors. Iggy could also go 1-10 again.

So there are so many advantages for the Cavs if they go hack-a-iggy

- The Warriors are a rhythm offense. you take them out of that rhythm and they become beatable
- You completely slow the game down. With each FT attempt, it gives Lebron and co. a rest. Its like a mini time out. You make iggy shoot like 40 free throws, that's a ton of rest. plus, the Cavs won't have to play defense, thats even more rest. That will allow Lebron to play the entire game and also maybe the Cavs aren't completely gassed by the 4th quarter
- You can make the game as ugly as possible. You foul Iggy on one end, and then just ISO Lebron on the other, and take as much clock as possible. Again, the uglier you make the game, the better for the Cavs. at some point, it will get into the dubs' heads, especially if Iggy starts missing a ton.
- You can start playing marginal defensive players (like Miller, Marion, Jones) heavier minutes (thus lengthening their bench) because if they don't have to play defense, they are no longer liabilities. a player like miller may have some value if he doesn't have to play defense
- You may eventually force Iggy out of the game. which would be killer for the dubs because he's the best defender you can stick on Lebron.

The one worry is that the Cavs will be accumulating a ton of fouls. but between Marion, Miller and Jones, that is 18 fouls and 36 free throws from Iggy.

I'm not saying you foul Iggy every single time. But maybe you foul him one possession, play defense on one possession, and then foul him the next possession. By mixing it up, it will really disrupt the Warriors rhythm.

This strategy is not ideal. But what choice do the Cavs have at this point?


So who gets to foul Iggy? The Cav's have a weak bench, you get one or two players to foul out and you have no bench. I heard this same scenario by one of the TV analysts this morning and thought how stupid. First you need five team fouls before you can go to the foul line and that's per quarter unless it was in the act of shooting. You get guys with five fouls and they play no defense because the next foul gets them out of the game. The Cav's just have to hope that both Curry & Thompson have a poor shooting night.
ducky23
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Not sure why people are having so much trouble understanding the strategy.

Joshbalt brought up a good point. You can't foul for an entire quarter or ejse you'd have to use 30+ fouls. But even if you used it for 2/3 of the third quarter it would be hugely advantageous for the cavs

Now let's play through how this would work so we can assuage everyone's fears.

With about 8 mins left to play, you start fouling iggy on every single possession. Even if the cavs only have two team fouls, just go foul someone until you get to five. And once you get to five, go foul iggy.

Yes you will be using a lot of fouls in the quarter. Probably 20+. But you have that many to use. You have six fouls from a combination of miller, Marion, jones, Haywood, Perkins.

The concern that they will play tentative with a lot of fouls is not a concern cause none of these players will play in the 4th q. You stick with your six man rotation in the 4th quarter. So who cares if Marion fouls out?

The concern that it puts the dubs in the bonus is not a concern because you're fouling the entire quarter anyways. If things break right, curry is not going to get a chance to shoot free throws at all in the quarter.

One legitimate concern is if you have to scrap the plan if iggy starts making fts. Cause if you have to scrap the plan, the dubs will be in the bonus. That's fine. Maybe just start fouling iggy when you have 3 or 4 team fouls. You're probably still fouling with 4-6 mins left in the quarter. That would still be a lot of time for rest.

The concern that it puts scrubs on the floor is a slight concern but it's not a deal breaker. I'm fine playing Haywood on offense for six possessions because he's not going to have to play defense on the other end.

the strategy seems drastic and obviously has some risks. But the cavs need to play with nothing to lose. And they absolureky need to find rest for Lebron and co. If they don't, they are going to get run in the fourth quarter.
SmellinRoses
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Agree - makes sense. I mean, the guy MISSED NINE IN A ROW. Never seen that on any level. Record is 13 (Dudley).
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