Here's this week's +/-

Arizona: +4
Oregon, UCLA, Utah: +2
CAL: +1
USC, ASU: 0
Furd, Washington State: -1
Colorado: -2
Washington: -3
Oregon State: -4

We can see a couple of things here:
1. The desert and mountain schools are in good shape, having a majority of their games so far on the road.
2. The Oregons and Washingtons--the opposite.

Zona is going to be really (as in really, really) tough down the stretch.

We need to hold serve and hopefully steal a couple more on the road.

Zona getting Trier back is a big difference maker... beating fUCLA in Pauley was a big win..

UrsaMajor;842798691 said:

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Here's this week's +/-

Arizona: +4
Oregon, UCLA, Utah: +2
CAL: +1
USC, ASU: 0
Furd, Washington State: -1
Colorado: -2
Washington: -3
Oregon State: -4

We can see a couple of things here:
1. The desert and mountain schools are in good shape, having a majority of their games so far on the road.
2. The Oregons and Washingtons--the opposite.

Zona is going to be really (as in really, really) tough down the stretch.

We need to hold serve and hopefully steal a couple more on the road.

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Which is doable. I think the question is can we go split on the mountain trip? to me a split puts us on the bubble, a sweep at the end would punch our tix and getting swept would likely mean NIT without winning 2 in the Pac-12 tournament. Next three 3 games are obviously also vitally important in getting some momentum and possibly getting a leg up on Utah for the Bye in Vegas (which I think is better).

What I thought was impressive against AZ in our game with them is that they have quality depth on the front line!
Ristic (7', 24.7mpg) had a good game with us. He pairs with the 1&done Lauri Markkanen (7', 31.3mpg) up front. And they have Chance Commanche (6'11", 17.9mpg) and even 6'9" Pinder adds 14.4 mpg.

Now that they have Trier back, they have good guard play as well.

UCLA really blew it in allowing AZ to win that game. I think Alford has allowed too much loosey goosey play with that squad, and that could be their undoing in the tournament.
That said, UCLA also has excellent interior talent with Leaf, Welsh, Ike, and Goloman - to go with their 4 guards Ball, Holiday, AlfordJr., and Hamilton.

Oregon's a bit of an odd wildcard to me. They don't have any players that I think stand above all others in terms of talent level. But they have 8 guys who play at least 10 minutes per game, most who can hurt you in various ways, 5 of them in double figures scoring per game. That's a balanced attack that is often the hallmark for successful teams.

It will be fun watching how the ncaa tournament unfolds with those 3.
All others will make an appearance - good for them.

for the Pac tourney in Vegas... The 1 seed has a clear path to the Championship game. You don't want to get the 2/3 seed and face each other in the semi-final.

In other words, UCLA has some growing up to do!
Toughness. Resolve.

concordtom;842798703 said:

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What I thought was impressive against AZ in our game with them is that they have quality depth on the front line!
Ristic (7', 24.7mpg) had a good game with us. He pairs with the 1&done Lauri Markkanen (7', 31.3mpg) up front. And they have Chance Commanche (6'11", 17.9mpg) and even 6'9" Pinder adds 14.4 mpg.

Now that they have Trier back, they have good guard play as well.

UCLA really blew it in allowing AZ to win that game. I think Alford has allowed too much loosey goosey play with that squad, and that could be their undoing in the tournament.
That said, UCLA also has excellent interior talent with Leaf, Welsh, Ike, and Goloman - to go with their 4 guards Ball, Holiday, AlfordJr., and Hamilton.

Oregon's a bit of an odd wildcard to me. They don't have any players that I think stand above all others in terms of talent level. But they have 8 guys who play at least 10 minutes per game, most who can hurt you in various ways, 5 of them in double figures scoring per game. That's a balanced attack that is often the hallmark for successful teams.

It will be fun watching how the ncaa tournament unfolds with those 3.
All others will make an appearance - good for them.

for the Pac tourney in Vegas... The 1 seed has a clear path to the Championship game. You don't want to get the 2/3 seed and face each other in the semi-final.

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I think to understand Oregon you have to understand how they leverage the parts of the puzzle for a better whole. They have 2 ELITE shot blockers (I watched them and it was ridiculously impressive) and so they funnel EVERYTHING inside. They close out hard on the outside - much harder than we do - because they figure that they have help on the back end.

I have circled on my calendar, however, the game on the 4th when the Wildcats travel there (honestly, must see TV) because I want to see how they fair with guards who can get into the shot blockers bodies. To me I would have liked to see a fully healthy Coleman in that respect. He has no fear and I would have loved to see how he did. Oregon's bigs are well trained but it is also the case that if you can force refs to make the call usually the short guy will get the call.

concordtom;842798703 said:

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Oregon's a bit of an odd wildcard to me. They don't have any players that I think stand above all others in terms of talent level. But they have 8 guys who play at least 10 minutes per game, most who can hurt you in various ways, 5 of them in double figures scoring per game. That's a balanced attack that is often the hallmark for successful teams.

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They have 3 guys who are probably going to be drafted this year. All upperclassman. Then Dorsey is a fringe prospect, and Ennis would be too if he weren't 25 or whatever. Either of those guys would play real minutes on any team in the Pac.

I'm thinking opposite. Trier is a ballhog and shoots low percentage shots. UofA could worsen.

MilleniaBear;842798718 said:

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I'm thinking opposite. Trier is a ballhog and shoots low percentage shots. UofA could worsen.

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Really? Trier shot 46% last season. He also had 4 assists against UCLA. To put that into perspective, no one on Cal averages 4 assists per game.

Trier makes Arizona a National Title contender.

socaltownie;842798712 said:

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I think to understand Oregon you have to understand how they leverage the parts of the puzzle for a better whole. They have 2 ELITE shot blockers (I watched them and it was ridiculously impressive) and so they funnel EVERYTHING inside. They close out hard on the outside - much harder than we do - because they figure that they have help on the back end.

I have circled on my calendar, however, the game on the 4th when the Wildcats travel there (honestly, must see TV) because I want to see how they fair with guards who can get into the shot blockers bodies. To me I would have liked to see a fully healthy Coleman in that respect. He has no fear and I would have loved to see how he did. Oregon's bigs are well trained but it is also the case that if you can force refs to make the call usually the short guy will get the call.

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You'd think then that pull-up, short range jumpers would be the strategy. But Cuonzo likes his guys to just drive in and get the ball to the rim. Seems like we're playing to Oregon's strength doing this

82gradDLSdad;842799066 said:

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You'd think then that pull-up, short range jumpers would be the strategy. But Cuonzo likes his guys to just drive in and get the ball to the rim. Seems like we're playing to Oregon's strength doing this

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We don't have guys that can do that. Mullins MAYBE, but he isn't quick enough off the dribble to create separation. Moore to an extent but his lack of height allows guys to defend really anywhere inside the arc as long as they are not badly beaten. That isn't lack of coaching - it is skill. Not surprisingly, a guy who DID have that game - Wallace, could do that to Oregon's D when he played. Bet you a lunch that who will give oregon trouble in the tournament is a team with wings that have solid mid-range game.

(Bird's midrange game isn't that good. He needs to be squared up and doesn't have a great fade away mid-range jumper).

socaltownie;842799080 said:

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(Bird's midrange game isn't that good. He needs to be squared up and doesn't have a great fade away mid-range jumper).

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Unfortunately, you are 100% spot-on. From his freshman year, many of us have been decrying his lack of mid-range shooting; it's still an issue.

UrsaMajor;842799120 said:

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Unfortunately, you are 100% spot-on. From his freshman year, many of us have been decrying his lack of mid-range shooting; it's still an issue.

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Yes, but developing a pull-up jumper isn't something everyone is able to do. Jim Barnett, for example, often said that was the one thing he lacked in his game. He had great moves to get his man off-balance on the drive, and he could fire a set-shot from long range, but he wasn't that good shooting a jumper on the move. He said if had had the pull-up jumper "I would have been Jerry West."

Jeff82;842799158 said:

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Yes, but developing a pull-up jumper isn't something everyone is able to do. Jim Barnett, for example, often said that was the one thing he lacked in his game. He had great moves to get his man off-balance on the drive, and he could fire a set-shot from long range, but he wasn't that good shooting a jumper on the move. He said if had had the pull-up jumper "I would have been Jerry West."

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Yes and if I was 7' 1" and had a mean sky hook I would have been Kareem.

His team shot 48% and he averaged 1.1 assists per game last year.

MilleniaBear;842799176 said:

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His team shot 48% and he averaged 1.1 assists per game last year.

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Trier's 46.6% shooting was the best among their guards that played over 10 mpg last season. He averaged 1.1 assists because his job is to score. I know how "ball hogs" play and I don't put Trier in that category. Based on the Efficiency ratings on KenPom, we'll see whether Arizona improves or declines with the addition of Trier.

tsubamoto2001;842799206 said:

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Trier's 46.6% shooting was the best among their guards that played over 10 mpg last season. He averaged 1.1 assists because his job is to score. I know how "ball hogs" play and I don't put Trier in that category. Based on the Efficiency ratings on KenPom, we'll see whether Arizona improves or declines with the addition of Trier.

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The Bears could use someone who knows how to score.

socaltownie;842799080 said:

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We don't have guys that can do that. Mullins MAYBE, but he isn't quick enough off the dribble to create separation. Moore to an extent but his lack of height allows guys to defend really anywhere inside the arc as long as they are not badly beaten. That isn't lack of coaching - it is skill. Not surprisingly, a guy who DID have that game - Wallace, could do that to Oregon's D when he played. Bet you a lunch that who will give oregon trouble in the tournament is a team with wings that have solid mid-range game.

(Bird's midrange game isn't that good. He needs to be squared up and doesn't have a great fade away mid-range jumper).

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Never seen a little kid do it. Of course it's lack of coaching. But it's a lack in every current basketball coach. No one coaches the pull-up jumper. It's either the 3 or drive to the hoop.

82gradDLSdad;842799349 said:

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Never seen a little kid do it. Of course it's lack of coaching. But it's a lack in every current basketball coach. No one coaches the pull-up jumper. It's either the 3 or drive to the hoop.

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I wouldn't say no one coaches the pull-up j. Lots of coaches at the HS level run drills where players take one or two dribble pull-ups. As a guy that used to shoot a lot of those shots (I watched a lot of Ray Allen and Richard Hamilton tape, as they were two of the best off the dribble shooters), having the knowledge I have now, I can say they just aren't great shots. They are difficult shots, even when unguarded. (Go out to the gym and practice your spot-ups vs. your off the dribble shots--you'll very likely do a lot better on your spot ups.) And most of those shots in the game are contested, which brings the percentages on those shots down even more. That said, it is a good skill to have, but I appreciate a guy that can find an open shooter for a better shot just as much when he gets into the lane, if not more, nowadays.

tsubamoto2001;842799361 said:

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I wouldn't say no one coaches the pull-up j. Lots of coaches at the HS level run drills where players take one or two dribble pull-ups. As a guy that used to shoot a lot of those shots (I watched a lot of Ray Allen and Richard Hamilton tape, as they were two of the best off the dribble shooters), having the knowledge I have now, I can say they just aren't great shots. They are difficult shots, even when unguarded. (Go out to the gym and practice your spot-ups vs. your off the dribble shots--you'll very likely do a lot better on your spot ups.) And most of those shots in the game are contested, which brings the percentages on those shots down even more. That said, it is a good skill to have, but I appreciate a guy that can find an open shooter for a better shot just as much when he gets into the lane, if not more, nowadays.

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Watch Sean Livingston -- Anybody with Jabari's hops should develop the mid-range game that this board has advocated for him. Livingston almost always has an uncontested mid-range shot available to him because, as a guard, he can easily get above any guard; and a major percentage of big men can't rise high enough (even with the head start - so to speak) to contest it. Bird has that possibility.

mikecohen;842799366 said:

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Watch Sean Livingston -- Anybody with Jabari's hops should develop the mid-range game that this board has advocated for him. Livingston almost always has an uncontested mid-range shot available to him because, as a guard, he can easily get above any guard; and a major percentage of big men can't rise high enough (even with the head start - so to speak) to contest it. Bird has that possibility.

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Dream on! Livingston is taller and has hugely more talent.

As tsubamoto says, it's a difficult shot. The problem is that you have momentum going forward, which needs to be translated entirely to momentum going vertical. If you're still moving forward, the shot will be longer than you think (unless you try to over-compensate). Livingston has it down--mostly because he is able to take his time and get set because of his height advantage. Steph Curry has it mastered, in part because of his unique shooting motion (he releases the ball on the way up instead at the top of his jump). Not saying JB shouldn't be working on it, just that it's difficult to control.

just my opinion jabari needs to shoot and create more. he is our biggest scoring threat. sometimes he gets lost in the offense.

Perhaps with practice Bird could do it well in college, but in the pros it will be much, much harder. He jumps well but so does everyone else in the pros. Livingston is not only unusually tall but has a very high release, as well as talent. Even then, many of his shots just exceed the reach of many of his defenders.

Another possibility for a guard in the midrange is the floater. I happened to see Matthews practicing the floater extensively in the practice gym last year with a coach. It was remarkable how bad he was at it. Many of his shots missed the rim altogether. It is a tough shot to learn.

Bearprof;842799510 said:

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Perhaps with practice Bird could do it well in college, but in the pros it will be much, much harder. He jumps well but so does everyone else in the pros. Livingston is not only unusually tall but has a very high release, as well as talent. Even then, many of his shots just exceed the reach of many of his defenders.

Another possibility for a guard in the midrange is the floater. I happened to see Matthews practicing the floater extensively in the practice gym last year with a coach. It was remarkable how bad he was at it. Many of his shots missed the rim altogether. It is a tough shot to learn.

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I remember how much former Cal PG Keith Smith improved after he perfected his floater

Is it not the case that Bird has to learn how to dribble penetrate much, much better, simply to be effective at a high level in college? The NBA is a huge step up from there, not at all comparable to going from high school to Division 1.

Fair enough. He very much needs to improve his handle, I agree.

It's not much of a surprise that Matin's Bears do not develop or look for mid range shots when his defensive philosophy is to force as many of those shots that we can.

tsubamoto2001;842799361 said:

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I wouldn't say no one coaches the pull-up j. Lots of coaches at the HS level run drills where players take one or two dribble pull-ups. As a guy that used to shoot a lot of those shots (I watched a lot of Ray Allen and Richard Hamilton tape, as they were two of the best off the dribble shooters), having the knowledge I have now, I can say they just aren't great shots. They are difficult shots, even when unguarded. (Go out to the gym and practice your spot-ups vs. your off the dribble shots--you'll very likely do a lot better on your spot ups.) And most of those shots in the game are contested, which brings the percentages on those shots down even more. That said, it is a good skill to have, but I appreciate a guy that can find an open shooter for a better shot just as much when he gets into the lane, if not more, nowadays.

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I agree with this completely. The mid range jumper is the least efficient shot in college basketball, generally speaking. Of course it depends on the player but that's a good general rule. I'd much rather focus on shots in the key and three pointers where the statistics generally yield a higher PPP. The advanced analytics don't support widespread use of the mid range jumper, not even in the NBA where the average % is less than 40%.

I don't know what you guys are talking about. I've seen Bird pull up from mid-range starting from his freshman year. He can make the shot. I'm pretty sure he's been instructed by the coaches to use his athleticism and get to rim instead because he can draw fouls.

concernedparent;842799676 said:

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I don't know what you guys are talking about. I've seen Bird pull up from mid-range starting from his freshman year. He can make the shot. I'm pretty sure he's been instructed by the coaches to use his athleticism and get to rim instead because he can draw fouls.

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Perhaps you are right, but the problem is that bird so often loses the ball as he drives all the way to the basket. And I suppose that is why we are discussing this: thinking that he might do better to stop and pop from the mid range. So if you are right, the question is, are the coaches really making the right decision in these particular circumstances?

82gradDLSdad;842799349 said:

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Never seen a little kid do it. Of course it's lack of coaching. But it's a lack in every current basketball coach. No one coaches the pull-up jumper. It's either the 3 or drive to the hoop.

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Perhaps. But it's also a lack of simply practicing it on one's own. I have a pretty good midrange game and pull-up jumper. I developed them by practicing - both alone in a gym and in pick-up games. I grew up watching players like Michael Jordan use those shots to great effect, and I emulated that. I think the current generation of college-aged kids has grown up in an era where those shots have mostly disappeared from the NBA game, and so they don't see it. There is only so much time a coach can spend with a kid.

i like jabari. he is a scorer. would like to see him take more shots. would like to see him penetrate more. rabb is experiencing double teams so our best option to score is jabari.

grandmastapoop;842799784 said:

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Perhaps. But it's also a lack of simply practicing it on one's own. I have a pretty good midrange game and pull-up jumper. I developed them by practicing - both alone in a gym and in pick-up games. I grew up watching players like Michael Jordan use those shots to great effect, and I emulated that. I think the current generation of college-aged kids has grown up in an era where those shots have mostly disappeared from the NBA game, and so they don't see it. There is only so much time a coach can spend with a kid.

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It seems to me that I see a fair number of midrange jumpers from the Dubs. Livingston, for sure, and David West too. But also Durant and Thompson, when run off the 3 point line. Not at all uncommon shot for them. So "mostly disappeared" is overstating it.

Bearprof;842799753 said:

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Perhaps you are right, but the problem is that bird so often loses the ball as he drives all the way to the basket. And I suppose that is why we are discussing this: thinking that he might do better to stop and pop from the mid range. So if you are right, the question is, are the coaches really making the right decision in these particular circumstances?

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You have to look at the possible outcomes to make that call. With a dynamic player like Bird, he can become a much more potent threat by driving. The operative word is can, some dudes can penetrate but have no idea what to do when they get there.

If you shoot mid-range, the likely outcomes are:
1. you make it (probably a ~40% shot for Bird)
2. you miss it

If you drive past mid-range:
1. you make a lay up (anywhere from ~10% to ~90%, it's up to player skill to figure out when to shoot)
2. you miss
3. you miss, but because of defensive rotation and the fact the shooter is in the paint, you get an offensive rebound and an opportunity to either get another close range shot, or a shot clock reset.
4. Foul on defense. Especially with the new rules, this is becoming especially common when guarding athletic players like Bird.
5. Defense over-rotates and you either dump off to another player in the paint, or you swing it out for better % shots.
6. Turnover (steal or charge)