Most brackets will still show Cal in the field after their loss to Stanford. The competition for the last 8-10 spots in the field is weak this season. There are lots of teams in consideration but all have major flaws. Several teams may make the field with 11, 12 possibly even 13 losses. The mid majors lack depth that past seasons have had so there will be less at large teams from those conferences. Some upsets occur every season in conference tourneys that provide a bid to an otherwise unworthy team, but most come from one bid leagues. The A-10 and AAC are conferences to watch this year. They each have 2 likely teams worthy of at large bids but Cal needs no upsets in those conference tourneys.

The Bears can get to the tourney with a 2-2 record to close the season, but may need one more win in P12 tourney to secure a bid should that happen. 3-1 secures a bid for sure. Schedule is difficult. Oregon is a top 10 team (maybe top 5) and a win would be very helpful. A top win is the single biggest missing ingredient from their resume. 11-7 in conference and 20-10 overall will put them in serious consideration but vulnerable to be sure. So 3-1 with a win over Oregon puts them in for sure. 2-2 is possible but puts pressure on the P12 tourney results. Continued losing by the other bubble teams is helping Cal, but that is always tricky and out of the Bears control.

Oregon game is crucial. It is winnable but the Bears will need to play very well and likely will need the Ducks to play less than their best. A loss could mean the Bears will have to sweep the remaining games to get a bid. Maybe not, but possibly true. Cal does not want that final road trip to become a must sweep event. For that to occur a win vs Oregon becomes a damn near must. Otherwise the Bears will be doing a lot of scoreboard watching and hoping the bottom of the bubble continues to lose and conference tourneys provide no drama. Lets go Bears. Find a way on Wednesday. It will be tough for sure, but could be the resume enhancer the team really needs.

6956bear;842810043 said:

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Most brackets will still show Cal in the field after their loss to Stanford. The competition for the last 8-10 spots in the field is weak this season. There are lots of teams in consideration but all have major flaws. Several teams may make the field with 11, 12 possibly even 13 losses. The mid majors lack depth that past seasons have had so there will be less at large teams from those conferences. Some upsets occur every season in conference tourneys that provide a bid to an otherwise unworthy team, but most come from one bid leagues. The A-10 and AAC are conferences to watch this year. They each have 2 likely teams worthy of at large bids but Cal needs no upsets in those conference tourneys.

The Bears can get to the tourney with a 2-2 record to close the season, but may need one more win in P12 tourney to secure a bid should that happen. 3-1 secures a bid for sure. Schedule is difficult. Oregon is a top 10 team (maybe top 5) and a win would be very helpful. A top win is the single biggest missing ingredient from their resume. 11-7 in conference and 20-10 overall will put them in serious consideration but vulnerable to be sure. So 3-1 with a win over Oregon puts them in for sure. 2-2 is possible but puts pressure on the P12 tourney results. Continued losing by the other bubble teams is helping Cal, but that is always tricky and out of the Bears control.

Oregon game is crucial. It is winnable but the Bears will need to play very well and likely will need the Ducks to play less than their best. A loss could mean the Bears will have to sweep the remaining games to get a bid. Maybe not, but possibly true. Cal does not want that final road trip to become a must sweep event. For that to occur a win vs Oregon becomes a damn near must. Otherwise the Bears will be doing a lot of scoreboard watching and hoping the bottom of the bubble continues to lose and conference tourneys provide no drama. Lets go Bears. Find a way on Wednesday. It will be tough for sure, but could be the resume enhancer the team really needs.

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I hope you're right because 2-2 with a single win in the Pac-12 tournament would be my bet for the most likely outcome at this point.

A couple of points:

ESPN's bracket has not been updated (not sure if Cal will be there tomorrow when it is updated).

Several spots will be "stolen" due to conference tournaments as well.

bigcocoon007;842810086 said:

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A couple of points:

ESPN's bracket has not been updated (not sure if Cal will be there tomorrow when it is updated).

Several spots will be "stolen" due to conference tournaments as well.

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ESPN is not the only bracket. Maybe Lunardi has them in maybe not. He is not perfect but has a good record at getting the teams in. Usually misses 1 or 2. As for "several" spots getting "stolen" that is doubtful. Likely the P5 conference tourneys will be won by a team already picked to be in. And among the mid major conferences several will only get the conference tourney winner in due to lack of quality overall. Now the WCC has 2 teams that are in regardless (Gonzaga and St Marys) so that tourney could "steal" a bid. But really there are not many scenarios like that this year. The Big 10 and SEC tourneys lack the real undisputed top team and a currently not deserving team could get hot and "steal" a bid. History tells us this happens very seldom. The expanded field has already allowed for many teams from the power conferences to get in. The top 6 in many big conferences already will get in. ACC is projected to get 9-10, Big 10 and Big 12 6-7 each. For a lower rated team to win 4 games against that type of quality is rare.

There likely will be a surprise or 2. But much more than that is really rare. Now the committee likely will pick a team or two that many will feel is undeserving. This seems to happen almost every year. Last year Syracuse was that team and they in fact made a run to the final 4. My point is Cal hurt themselves Friday night, but it was hardly a death blow. They are still very much in it. They will need to win some of the remaining games ( 2 for sure in regular season and maybe 1 or 2 in P12 tourney)but they have a legitimate shot at NCAA tourney. The loss took away some of the margin for error, but did not eliminate the Bears. Not by a long shot.

Certainly, individual games and individual seasons have their importance and their uses. However, I have a bigger question and bigger concerns. Is this a perennial NCAA program with blips or is this a perennial NIT team program with blips? We will know for sure when we know who CM signs this Spring, who he signs this Fall, and, again, who he signs next Spring to complete the Fall 2017 signing period. I can tolerate a few blips if we become a perennial NCAA program--if, however, our recruiting falls short ( see above) then, once again, we will become a NIT program which simply cannot compete with the big boys of the pac-12. ( please see Arizona, UCLA, USC, Oregon, and to a lesser extent, Utah. shocky simply cannot cheerlead into eternity for a NIT program no matter how many curvy brunettes he posts. Thoughts??

helltopay1;842810155 said:

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Certainly, individual games and individual seasons have their importance and their uses. However, I have a bigger question and bigger concerns. Is this a perennial NCAA program with blips or is this a perennial NIT team program with blips? We will know for sure when we know who CM signs this Spring, who he signs this Fall, and, again, who he signs next Spring to complete the Fall 2017 signing period. I can tolerate a few blips if we become a perennial NCAA program--if, however, our recruiting falls short ( see above) then, once again, we will become a NIT program which simply cannot compete with the big boys of the pac-12. ( please see Arizona, UCLA, USC, Oregon, and to a lesser extent, Utah. shocky simply cannot cheerlead into eternity for a NIT program no matter how many curvy brunettes he posts. Thoughts??

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This is a post I agree completely with. See? Common ground.

nice to have company. glad i'm not alone in my thinking.

helltopay1;842810155 said:

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Certainly, individual games and individual seasons have their importance and their uses. However, I have a bigger question and bigger concerns. Is this a perennial NCAA program with blips or is this a perennial NIT team program with blips? We will know for sure when we know who CM signs this Spring, who he signs this Fall, and, again, who he signs next Spring to complete the Fall 2017 signing period. I can tolerate a few blips if we become a perennial NCAA program--if, however, our recruiting falls short ( see above) then, once again, we will become a NIT program which simply cannot compete with the big boys of the pac-12. ( please see Arizona, UCLA, USC, Oregon, and to a lesser extent, Utah. shocky simply cannot cheerlead into eternity for a NIT program no matter how many curvy brunettes he posts. Thoughts??

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Of course recruiting matters. It is easier to recruit when you play back to back seasons in the NCAA tournament. So the program really needs to find a way in this year. Cuonzo is fast approaching the point in time where the program is all his. Where all the players will be his recruits. The current commits are all very solid to good prospects. All good building blocks, but likely no immediate star types. Baker is a very good 2 guard prospect that likely will start from the jump. I think the 2018 class is the one where we will know better the longer term trajectory. The staff has built good relationships with several top prospects. But the competition will be tough. That is why Cal needs to make the NCAA tournament.

This season if we knew the program was headed for annual NCAA trips in the future missing this season would not be as disappointing. However they are tied together at least somewhat. Recruits want to play in the NCAA tournament. Selling them on your program becomes easier when they see you in it. Arizona, UCLA and Oregon can legitimately sell that vision as an annual event. Cal needs to show it. Anytime you have a chance it is important, but for recruiting it is almost essential. Want a program that is an annual NCAA tourney team? So do I. So do the recruits. That makes this season so crucial. Not making is not a certain death blow to the program. It just makes the selling process to recruits that much more difficult.

6956bear;842810261 said:

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Of course recruiting matters. It is easier to recruit when you play back to back seasons in the NCAA tournament. So the program really needs to find a way in this year. Cuonzo is fast approaching the point in time where the program is all his. Where all the players will be his recruits. The current commits are all very solid to good prospects. All good building blocks, but likely no immediate star types. Baker is a very good 2 guard prospect that likely will start from the jump. I think the 2018 class is the one where we will know better the longer term trajectory. The staff has built good relationships with several top prospects. But the competition will be tough. That is why Cal needs to make the NCAA tournament.

This season if we knew the program was headed for annual NCAA trips in the future missing this season would not be as disappointing. However they are tied together at least somewhat. Recruits want to play in the NCAA tournament. Selling them on your program becomes easier when they see you in it. Arizona, UCLA and Oregon can legitimately sell that vision as an annual event. Cal needs to show it. Anytime you have a chance it is important, but for recruiting it is almost essential. Want a program that is an annual NCAA tourney team? So do I. So do the recruits. That makes this season so crucial. Not making is not a certain death blow to the program. It just makes the selling process to recruits that much more difficult.

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+1

bigcocoon007;842810086 said:

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A couple of points:

ESPN's bracket has not been updated (not sure if Cal will be there tomorrow when it is updated).

Several spots will be "stolen" due to conference tournaments as well.

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Lunardi's Feb 20 update still has us as a 10 seed.

GRRAAH;842810282 said:

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Lunardi's Feb 20 update still has us as a 10 seed.

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I will take this over U$Cs projection as an #8....The seeding on #8/9 has always bothered me in that if you win, you get #1...Just doesn't seem fair when #10, 11, and 12 win and get a lower second round seed. Granted you must win, but the 8/9 is never a gimme.

OdontoBear66;842810299 said:

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I will take this over U$Cs projection as an #8....The seeding on #8/9 has always bothered me in that if you win, you get #1...Just doesn't seem fair when #10, 11, and 12 win and get a lower second round seed. Granted you must win, but the 8/9 is never a gimme.

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And how else would you propose to structure it??
(I see your point about advancing vs a 1 seed is often murderous odds, but there is no alternative, to me).

helltopay1;842810234 said:

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nice to have company. glad i'm not alone in my thinking.

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Winning is not the end all be all.
I like going to Haas to cheer on our golden bears, just like in the olden days.
When I was a kid, the parking lot tailgates and football tosses with family were WAY more important than the outcomes. And every now and then, like Nov 20 1982 I think it was, we got a golden moment of glory to savor for decades! Wasn't a bowl game.

I can be happy with NIT.
Go Bears
Be true to your school.

Ridell High was never any good either!

That said, land those damn recruits or you're fired!!

It has been conveyed to me from some top staff members that placing high in league play is the GOAL. Anything doing with NCAA is gravey. So this low expectation directly affects into the recruiting battles, and keeps kids away with high asperations of going where they are in the dance every year. ALso Cunzos heavy defense approach to the detriment of an offensive scheme is a limiting factor on recruits, and ultimately to overall team success. Finally, it was reported that CAl has one of the worst ratings in scheduling power teams away from the West Coast. Don't be surprised as he continues to build his reputation as a great Defensive Coach, that he bails for a MWest school (Ill). where he can continue to hone his D stature. If we see the same approach, and style this year letting him go would allow us to find someone who has the drive to be in the dicussion at the NCAA's each year..

6956bear;842810261 said:

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Of course recruiting matters. It is easier to recruit when you play back to back seasons in the NCAA tournament. So the program really needs to find a way in this year. Cuonzo is fast approaching the point in time where the program is all his. Where all the players will be his recruits. The current commits are all very solid to good prospects. All good building blocks, but likely no immediate star types. Baker is a very good 2 guard prospect that likely will start from the jump. I think the 2018 class is the one where we will know better the longer term trajectory. The staff has built good relationships with several top prospects. But the competition will be tough. That is why Cal needs to make the NCAA tournament.

This season if we knew the program was headed for annual NCAA trips in the future missing this season would not be as disappointing. However they are tied together at least somewhat. Recruits want to play in the NCAA tournament. Selling them on your program becomes easier when they see you in it. Arizona, UCLA and Oregon can legitimately sell that vision as an annual event. Cal needs to show it. Anytime you have a chance it is important, but for recruiting it is almost essential. Want a program that is an annual NCAA tourney team? So do I. So do the recruits. That makes this season so crucial. Not making is not a certain death blow to the program. It just makes the selling process to recruits that much more difficult.

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Are these sources from U of A Tucson? Why would a top P 5 coach go to the M West? Cuonzo is doing well enough to attract trolls from other schools.

Bisonbob;842810520 said:

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It has been conveyed to me from some top staff members that placing high in league play is the GOAL. Anything doing with NCAA is gravey. So this low expectation directly affects into the recruiting battles, and keeps kids away with high asperations of going where they are in the dance every year. ALso Cunzos heavy defense approach to the detriment of an offensive scheme is a limiting factor on recruits, and ultimately to overall team success. Finally, it was reported that CAl has one of the worst ratings in scheduling power teams away from the West Coast. Don't be surprised as he continues to build his reputation as a great Defensive Coach, that he bails for a MWest school (Ill). where he can continue to hone his D stature. If we see the same approach, and style this year letting him go would allow us to find someone who has the drive to be in the dicussion at the NCAA's each year..

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Your sources, inimitable spelling, and time of your posting would indicate your sources to be either John Barleycorn or Jack Daniels!

6956bear;842810145 said:

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ESPN is not the only bracket. Maybe Lunardi has them in maybe not. He is not perfect but has a good record at getting the teams in. Usually misses 1 or 2. As for "several" spots getting "stolen" that is doubtful. Likely the P5 conference tourneys will be won by a team already picked to be in. And among the mid major conferences several will only get the conference tourney winner in due to lack of quality overall. Now the WCC has 2 teams that are in regardless (Gonzaga and St Marys) so that tourney could "steal" a bid. But really there are not many scenarios like that this year. The Big 10 and SEC tourneys lack the real undisputed top team and a currently not deserving team could get hot and "steal" a bid. History tells us this happens very seldom. The expanded field has already allowed for many teams from the power conferences to get in. The top 6 in many big conferences already will get in. ACC is projected to get 9-10, Big 10 and Big 12 6-7 each. For a lower rated team to win 4 games against that type of quality is rare.

There likely will be a surprise or 2. But much more than that is really rare. Now the committee likely will pick a team or two that many will feel is undeserving. This seems to happen almost every year. Last year Syracuse was that team and they in fact made a run to the final 4. My point is Cal hurt themselves Friday night, but it was hardly a death blow. They are still very much in it. They will need to win some of the remaining games ( 2 for sure in regular season and maybe 1 or 2 in P12 tourney)but they have a legitimate shot at NCAA tourney. The loss took away some of the margin for error, but did not eliminate the Bears. Not by a long shot.

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A-10 might get 4 in if Richmond wins the conference tourney..
If Wichita St doesn't win the conference tourney, another team will have stolen a spot as the Shockers are in.

I know it rarely happens that a team wins 4 straight in the conference tourney but Colorado has actually done it before and they are the one team that RIGHT NOW is better than its record. Anything can happen

bigcocoon007;842810807 said:

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A-10 might get 4 in if Richmond wins the conference tourney..
If Wichita St doesn't win the conference tourney, another team will have stolen a spot as the Shockers are in.

I know it rarely happens that a team wins 4 straight in the conference tourney but Colorado has actually done it before and they are the one team that RIGHT NOW is better than its record. Anything can happen

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Yes it is possible that teams can get hot at the right time and earn a bid in a conference tourney. But since that is impossible to forecast I like to try and evaluate Cal's chances based on what is likely to occur not what may happen but rarely does. The bubble teams this year are not great and the committee could decide to reward some mid major teams. It is possible. Teams on the bubble continue to lose more than win lately. Last night Georgia Tech and Indiana lost. Cal needs to find wins. Oregon would be a big one. At this point today Cal would be in. But they must win a minimum of 2 regular season games still. What they may need to do in the P12 tourney is unknown. Many mid major conference tourneys will already be over so the field will really start taking shape by the time Cal begins P12 tourney play. As for the P12 tourney we have seen some upsets, but this year there are 3 teams that are really stronger than the rest. I expect one of those 3 to win it. Is it possible somebody else does? Of course.

6956bear;842810849 said:

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Yes it is possible that teams can get hot at the right time and earn a bid in a conference tourney. But since that is impossible to forecast I like to try and evaluate Cal's chances based on what is likely to occur not what may happen but rarely does. The bubble teams this year are not great and the committee could decide to reward some mid major teams. It is possible. Teams on the bubble continue to lose more than win lately. Last night Georgia Tech and Indiana lost. Cal needs to find wins. Oregon would be a big one. At this point today Cal would be in. But they must win a minimum of 2 regular season games still. What they may need to do in the P12 tourney is unknown. Many mid major conference tourneys will already be over so the field will really start taking shape by the time Cal begins P12 tourney play. As for the P12 tourney we have seen some upsets, but this year there are 3 teams that are really stronger than the rest. I expect one of those 3 to win it. Is it possible somebody else does? Of course.

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Indiana isn't even on the bubble. The other big loss by a bubble team yesterday was Clemson.

Dumb post. Placing high in the league is a good goal--it gets you into the tournament. Cuonzo has been here less than 3 years. So far, he has recruited Jaylen Brown, Ivan Rabb, Charlie Moore, Jemarl Baker (all top-100s or better). I guess they were all turned off by a defensive approach...

As I posted before, I knew there'd be some dickhead who would post that he wanted Cuonzo gone...

SFBearz;842810967 said:

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Indiana isn't even on the bubble. The other big loss by a bubble team yesterday was Clemson.

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Indiana was not on the bubble as of yesterday. Had they won they would have been back in conversation. They own wins over Kansas and UNC. Long time and many losses ago, but if they closed well would certainly have been worthy of discussion. Regardless not bad for Cal that they lost. Bears win tonight and they may sneak in with just a victory over OSU. Lots of teams losing at the bottom part of the bubble. Likely the Bears would need another win (maybe 2 ) in the P12 tourney should they sweep this weekend but not win in Utah and Colorado.

Cal is a 10-seed in Jerry Palm's bracket. That's how weak the bubble is, but I'll take it. If basketball gods exist, we sweep the Mountain trip.

http://mweb.cbssports.com/ncaab/bracketology

concordtom;842810483 said:

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And how else would you propose to structure it??
(I see your point about advancing vs a 1 seed is often murderous odds, but there is no alternative, to me).

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Possibly reorganizing the seeds in a 16 team pool after the first weekend....So if a 14, 12, and a 9 won, the 14 would play the 1, the 12 the 2, and the 9 the three...You have most of a week to make the updates.

UrsaMajor;842811009 said:

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Dumb post. Placing high in the league is a good goal--it gets you into the tournament. Cuonzo has been here less than 3 years. So far, he has recruited Jaylen Brown, Ivan Rabb, Charlie Moore, Jemarl Baker (all top-100s or better). I guess they were all turned off by a defensive approach...

As I posted before, I knew there'd be some dickhead who would post that he wanted Cuonzo gone...

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+1

6956bear;842811023 said:

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. . . Likely the Bears would need another win (maybe 2 ) in the P12 tourney should they sweep this weekend but not win in Utah and Colorado.

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What did you mean to say with that sentence (since sweeping this weekend but not winning in Utah and Colorado is a contradiction in terms).

tsubamoto2001;842812448 said:

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Cal is a 10-seed in Jerry Palm's bracket. That's how weak the bubble is, but I'll take it. If basketball gods exist, we sweep the Mountain trip.

http://mweb.cbssports.com/ncaab/bracketology

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He has Syracuse and Kansas St out but Wake Forest in?

mikecohen;842812535 said:

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What did you mean to say with that sentence (since sweeping this weekend but not winning in Utah and Colorado is a contradiction in terms).

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That sentence was written prior to Cal playing the Oregon schools. The point being if Cal swept the Oregon schools but got swept in Utah/Colorado they may need to do work in P12 tourney. At this point Cal may need to sweep Utah/Colorado to assure making the field. A split they are still alive. But will need results from other teams to be favorable. So the Bears mostly have their fate in their own hands. But there is still a path to tourney even with a split on this upcoming road trip IMO. Utah is a very big game to say the very least.