There has been some discussion among posters as to the wisdom of recruiting the highest ranked recruits who are likely to play one or two years at the most at Cal, and then leave school for the NBA. I have felt for some time that this type of recruit, while being outstanding athletes, on average do not contribute much to a team's success. I went back to a spreadsheet of the top 100 players of 2009 that I posted here on the Bear Insider a few years ago, to see what the results showed. In that spreadsheet, I arbitrarily defined a successful team as a team that had accomplished one or more of the following goals in that one season: 25 or more wins, a conference championship, or a trip to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA tournament. Here are the results for the one-and done players:
#1 Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech: 2nd round of the NCAA
#2 John Wall, Kentucky: won the SEC Championship, NCAA Elite 8
#3 DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky: won the SEC Championship, NCAA Elite 8
#4 Avery Bradley, Texas: 1st Round NCAA
#6 Xavier Henry, Kansas: Big 12 Championship, 2nd Round NCAA
#8 Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati: 2nd Round NIT
#10 Keith Gallon, Oklahoma: All team wins vacated by the NCAA. Gallon played, but was supposedly offered or took cash in a recruiting scandal.
#19 Daniel Orton, Kentucky: played very little on team which won SEC Championship, and advanced to NCAA Elite 8
#30 Tommy Mason-Griffin, Oklahoma: Griffin played well, but all team wins were vacated by the NCAA in recruiting scandal.
#52 Eric Bledsoe, Kentucky: won the SEC Championship, NCAA Elite 8
So out of a total of 100 players there were ten who left for the NBA after one season, and of those ten, only four, Wall, Cousins, Henry, and Bledsoe helped their teams to a successful season. And only two schools, Kentucky and Kansas were helped by these 10 recruits to a successful season.
If we look at the two-and-done players, here are those results:
#7 Renardo Sidney, Mississippi State: suspended for fighting; team lost 1st Round NIT
#22 Jordan Hamilton, Texas: 3rd Round NCAA (his 2nd year)
#32 Tyler Honeycutt, UCLA: 3rd Round NCAA (his 2nd year)
#41 Nolan Dennis, Baylor: Had ear problems and left school
#48 Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State: Conference co-Champ, NCAA Sweet 16(2nd year)
#100 Derrick Williams, Arizona: PAC10 Champion, NCAA Elite 8
So overall the results for all these one-and-done and two and done players is 16 players are 6 out of 16 helped their teams have successful seasons during their brief college careers. Two of those players Sidney, and Gallon may have hurt their teams ability to be successful. One player, Nolan Dennis, left school due to injury. The most surprising statistic to me was that of 16 players who left school early, only four schools were helped by these highly ranked players.
I also looked at players in the 2009 class who left after one season to transfer to another school. There were a total of 11 of these who transferred. Only one, Jamil Wilson, helped the team that originally signed him, and that was Jamil Wilson, who played a year at Oregon and helped his team to a 27-8 season and Sweet 16 in the NCAA. He then transferred to Marquette. Some of the others you may be familiar with: Travis and David Wear who played little at North Carolina and transferred to UCLA, Mike Moser who played little at UCLA and transferred twice, and Clarence Trent who played little at UW and transferred. Royce White (Minnesota) and Chris Colvin (Iowa State) both played little and both were suspended. The other players all played very little.
My definition of success is arbitrary. Some of you may have a higher or lower bar. 2009 is only one recruiting class and the results may differ some from class to class, but for 2009 at least, the results of recruiting one- and one or two-and done players did not seem to be a good strategy for me for achieving team success in that year.
#1 Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech: 2nd round of the NCAA
#2 John Wall, Kentucky: won the SEC Championship, NCAA Elite 8
#3 DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky: won the SEC Championship, NCAA Elite 8
#4 Avery Bradley, Texas: 1st Round NCAA
#6 Xavier Henry, Kansas: Big 12 Championship, 2nd Round NCAA
#8 Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati: 2nd Round NIT
#10 Keith Gallon, Oklahoma: All team wins vacated by the NCAA. Gallon played, but was supposedly offered or took cash in a recruiting scandal.
#19 Daniel Orton, Kentucky: played very little on team which won SEC Championship, and advanced to NCAA Elite 8
#30 Tommy Mason-Griffin, Oklahoma: Griffin played well, but all team wins were vacated by the NCAA in recruiting scandal.
#52 Eric Bledsoe, Kentucky: won the SEC Championship, NCAA Elite 8
So out of a total of 100 players there were ten who left for the NBA after one season, and of those ten, only four, Wall, Cousins, Henry, and Bledsoe helped their teams to a successful season. And only two schools, Kentucky and Kansas were helped by these 10 recruits to a successful season.
If we look at the two-and-done players, here are those results:
#7 Renardo Sidney, Mississippi State: suspended for fighting; team lost 1st Round NIT
#22 Jordan Hamilton, Texas: 3rd Round NCAA (his 2nd year)
#32 Tyler Honeycutt, UCLA: 3rd Round NCAA (his 2nd year)
#41 Nolan Dennis, Baylor: Had ear problems and left school
#48 Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State: Conference co-Champ, NCAA Sweet 16(2nd year)
#100 Derrick Williams, Arizona: PAC10 Champion, NCAA Elite 8
So overall the results for all these one-and-done and two and done players is 16 players are 6 out of 16 helped their teams have successful seasons during their brief college careers. Two of those players Sidney, and Gallon may have hurt their teams ability to be successful. One player, Nolan Dennis, left school due to injury. The most surprising statistic to me was that of 16 players who left school early, only four schools were helped by these highly ranked players.
I also looked at players in the 2009 class who left after one season to transfer to another school. There were a total of 11 of these who transferred. Only one, Jamil Wilson, helped the team that originally signed him, and that was Jamil Wilson, who played a year at Oregon and helped his team to a 27-8 season and Sweet 16 in the NCAA. He then transferred to Marquette. Some of the others you may be familiar with: Travis and David Wear who played little at North Carolina and transferred to UCLA, Mike Moser who played little at UCLA and transferred twice, and Clarence Trent who played little at UW and transferred. Royce White (Minnesota) and Chris Colvin (Iowa State) both played little and both were suspended. The other players all played very little.
My definition of success is arbitrary. Some of you may have a higher or lower bar. 2009 is only one recruiting class and the results may differ some from class to class, but for 2009 at least, the results of recruiting one- and one or two-and done players did not seem to be a good strategy for me for achieving team success in that year.