This is not surprising to me.
For better or for worse, he was going to get three years with some of his own players.
I understand hoping he gets fired, but he won't be this year.

The heat comes next year,

That he said "at least through 2019-2019" spoke volumes, i.e. not-gonna-happen during the season, but, barring some sort of unforeseen and unlikely turnaround...

... sounds like the heat could come next month.

Alkiadt said:

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This is not surprising to me.
For better or for worse, he was going to get three years with some of his own players.
I understand hoping he gets fired, but he won't be this year.

The heat comes next year,

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Three years would be negligent management as an AD. This can't continue after this season. You would have to pay people and give out more gold t-shirts to come to Haas.

KoreAmBear said:

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Alkiadt said:

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This is not surprising to me.
For better or for worse, he was going to get three years with some of his own players.
I understand hoping he gets fired, but he won't be this year.

The heat comes next year,

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Three years would be negligent management as an AD. This can't continue after this season. You would have to pay people and give out more gold t-shirts to come to Haas.

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I think if this continues next year the shirts would have to be made of actual gold to get folks to come to the games.

Cal doesn't care about basketball. Nothing new.

"Since Haas Pavilion opened in 1999, Cal had never averaged fewer than 7,700 fans and six times averaged more than 10,000. Last season, the average dropped to 7,376. This season, it's at 4,893."*

OUCH!

*Im thinking the free hot dog and sleeve of Titleists to attract attendance is still a possibility.

If he is retained my three season tickets will not be renewed

oskidunker said:

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If he is retained my three season tickets will not be renewed

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I think there's literally no chance this could come to pass. If going 0-18 in conference doesn't get you fired (and that's a very real possibility) then nothing will. That would be without the plummeting ticket sales. Knowlton is very, very focused on those. Took great pride in selling out the student section in football.

There are still more than a few games left, but the trajectory simply is not there to justify retaining Jones after this season (unless something changes by season end).

KoreAmBear said:

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Three years would be negligent management as an AD. This can't continue after this season. You would have to pay people and give out more gold t-shirts to come to Haas.

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The decision rests with the donors, not the AD. We (the Cal Atheltic supporters) have to come up with around $10 million for the buyout and new coaching staffs' pay package. I am not in those conversations. I don't expect that the AD would tell a reporter about those conversations.

bearister said:

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"Since Haas Pavilion opened in 1999, Cal had never averaged fewer than 7,700 fans and six times averaged more than 10,000. Last season, the average dropped to 7,376. This season, it's at 4,893."*

OUCH!

*Im thinking the free hot dog and sleeve of Titleists to attract attendance is still a possibility.

---

a minimum of 3k tickets not sold per game. 20 games per year. That's 60k ticket sales sold on the low end (100k on the high end). Even at something cheap like $20 per ticket that's already $1.2M. Real number is probably closer to $2M. That's just ticket sales and doesn't count concessions, donations, etc. Wyking is costing us millions.

RJABear said:

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KoreAmBear said:

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Three years would be negligent management as an AD. This can't continue after this season. You would have to pay people and give out more gold t-shirts to come to Haas.

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The decision rests with the donors, not the AD. We (the Cal Atheltic supporters) have to come up with around $10 million for the buyout and new coaching staffs' pay package. I am not in those conversations. I don't expect that the AD would tell a reporter about those conversations.

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If the donors need to come up with money for a new coach then Wyking's salary is already covered. It would've been come up with when we hired him. We'd just need to come up with money for the new coach.

Personally, unless we're going to make a big splashy (expensive) hire, I don't think that donors need to come up with the money. If your kitchen catches fire you put out the fire, you don't wait to see if you have the money to rebuild the kitchen while letting the fire grow. Cal's metaphorical house is on fire. Wyking is burning this thing down. Put out the fire. The incremental cost of not making a change outweigh the cost of making one. Cal is losing its hard core fans now and letting this fester beyond this season risks eroding that core fan base to the point of no return. Put out the fire.


(for the record, I would be shocked if Wyking is the coach next year. As a leader there are things you have to say in public and I assume that's what Knowlton is doing. I assume that the search for a replacement has been underway for weeks.)

My son is adamant about not renewing as is my friend who buys one ticket. I thought about just renewing two to keep location but I am being overwhelmed by everything. Can't do it if they keep jones. Will reapply when new coach hired and sit where I can. Very sad for me. Season tickets since 1986. I guess all good things come to an end.

I wonder if they are going to start renewals before the season is over. Big mistake if they do. They should offer a refund if the team doesn't break 500. Free hot dogs would help but Cal always looks at the short term...

boredom said:

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RJABear said:

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KoreAmBear said:

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Three years would be negligent management as an AD. This can't continue after this season. You would have to pay people and give out more gold t-shirts to come to Haas.

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The decision rests with the donors, not the AD. We (the Cal Atheltic supporters) have to come up with around $10 million for the buyout and new coaching staffs' pay package. I am not in those conversations. I don't expect that the AD would tell a reporter about those conversations.

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If the donors need to come up with money for a new coach then Wyking's salary is already covered. It would've been come up with when we hired him. We'd just need to come up with money for the new coach.

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I agree that the results are poor and a change is warranted. I attend all the home games and feel for the players. Would really like to see the relief on their faces when they finally win a game

Just because the money was there for the old contract does not mean the money is there for a buy-out and a new overlapping contract. The donors have to be willing to pay for two coaches at the same time for three years.

IIRC Wyking's contract pays a $250k salary per year from the University and $750k talent fee from the Donors.

Cal got 1 million from Martin when he left.

Outside of making it pretty clear that barring something really bad (beyond just going 0-18), Jones isn't getting canned mid-season, there isn't a lot there. If the Bears had been 0-9 in conference with no players of NBA caliber instead of 4-5 with at a future basketball HOF player and at least 1 other future NBA player, Lou probably doesn't get fired mid-season, because the season would have been lost already. May as well wait and avoid all the negatives that go along with a mid-season firing. We ain't making the NCAA tourney or the NIT or the CBI or anything even if we get the best interim coach in the world.

Rusty Simmons did get one thing wrong in the article. He says, "Nearly two years into a five-year deal that will pay him $5 million through 2022, Jones is 13-39 (.250). No other Cal basketball coach has ever won fewer than 41 percent of his games (Dick Kuchen went 80-112 from 1979-1985)."

Well, Todd Bozeman won fewer than 36% of his games, with his sparkling 35-63 record. Rusty should have made clear that he was talking about including wins on the floor from cheating when he said that. What is disturbing is that, in spite of losing 28 wins to forfeits for using Jelani Gardner, Bozeman's winning percentage is STILL .107 better than Jones' winning percentage.

The 4,893 average attendance figure is deceiving, because that is average tickets sold, not actual people in the building. There are a whole lot of nights when many ticket holders are staying home and those seats are empty. Finances play into everything if Knowlton is doing his job, but ticket sales and empty seats affect finances, too. Doing his job means navigating the complexity of the finances to get Jones terminated and a quality coach brought in.

It is still galling to me every time I think about it. 5 years and $5M with no early buyout for the university, for a guy with no HC experience, no associate HC experience, in demand as HC by exactly no one. Ugh.

Big C said:

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That he said "at least through 2019-2019" spoke volumes, i.e. not-gonna-happen during the season, but, barring some sort of unforeseen and unlikely turnaround...

... sounds like the heat could come next month.

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Yep

RJABear said:

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KoreAmBear said:

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Three years would be negligent management as an AD. This can't continue after this season. You would have to pay people and give out more gold t-shirts to come to Haas.

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The decision rests with the donors, not the AD. We (the Cal Atheltic supporters) have to come up with around $10 million for the buyout and new coaching staffs' pay package. I am not in those conversations. I don't expect that the AD would tell a reporter about those conversations.

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The decision rests with the school, but fans and donors can put pressure on to push the decision in the direction they want.

That $10 million figure is straight out of fantasyland though. It will take $3M to buy out Jones and no need to project what a new staff would cost as of yet.

Yogi Bear said:

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RJABear said:

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KoreAmBear said:

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Three years would be negligent management as an AD. This can't continue after this season. You would have to pay people and give out more gold t-shirts to come to Haas.

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The decision rests with the donors, not the AD. We (the Cal Atheltic supporters) have to come up with around $10 million for the buyout and new coaching staffs' pay package. I am not in those conversations. I don't expect that the AD would tell a reporter about those conversations.

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The decision rests with the school, but fans and donors can put pressure on to push the decision in the direction they want.

That $10 million figure is straight out of fantasyland though. It will take $3M to buy out Jones and no need to project what a new staff would cost as of yet.

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The confounding thing is, maybe you can justify giving Jones a chance, maybe you think there is something there, but there was absolutely no reason to not offer a contract that was completely favorable to the university if things did not work out. Jones would have accepted: 1) it was his big opportunity 2) he had to show confidence in his abilities and 3) he had no other similar opportunities. If he did refuse, move on.

boredom said:

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bearister said:

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"Since Haas Pavilion opened in 1999, Cal had never averaged fewer than 7,700 fans and six times averaged more than 10,000. Last season, the average dropped to 7,376. This season, it's at 4,893."*

OUCH!

*Im thinking the free hot dog and sleeve of Titleists to attract attendance is still a possibility.

---

a minimum of 3k tickets not sold per game. 20 games per year. That's 60k ticket sales sold on the low end (100k on the high end). Even at something cheap like $20 per ticket that's already $1.2M. Real number is probably closer to $2M. That's just ticket sales and doesn't count concessions, donations, etc. Wyking is costing us millions.

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Yeah, that has to be the financial consideration Knowlton mentioned in the article. The cost of any more years of WJ, in lost revenue, would exceed the cost of his buyout.

"He (Knowlton) said he's hearing positive and negative feedback from fans as the program overhauls its roster..."

Who are the idiot fans giving Knowlton posiitive feedback?

calumnus said:

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Yogi Bear said:

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RJABear said:

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KoreAmBear said:

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Three years would be negligent management as an AD. This can't continue after this season. You would have to pay people and give out more gold t-shirts to come to Haas.

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The decision rests with the donors, not the AD. We (the Cal Atheltic supporters) have to come up with around $10 million for the buyout and new coaching staffs' pay package. I am not in those conversations. I don't expect that the AD would tell a reporter about those conversations.

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The decision rests with the school, but fans and donors can put pressure on to push the decision in the direction they want.

That $10 million figure is straight out of fantasyland though. It will take $3M to buy out Jones and no need to project what a new staff would cost as of yet.

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The confounding thing is, maybe you can justify giving Jones a chance, maybe you think there is something there, but there was absolutely no reason to not offer a contract that was completely favorable to the university if things did not work out. Jones would have accepted: 1) it was his big opportunity 2) he had to show confidence in his abilities and 3) he had no other similar opportunities. If he did refuse, move on.

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Unless of course your priority was maximizing Jones' benefit over Cal's best interests, and you knew the administration would play along. It would be very naive to contend this was all a big mistake. This was doomed to fail from the beginning, and everyone knew it. The likelihood that the experiment would succeed was very, very remote. People don't just bumble into these situations; the motivations need to be wrong from the start.

Yogi Bear said:

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RJABear said:

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KoreAmBear said:

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Three years would be negligent management as an AD. This can't continue after this season. You would have to pay people and give out more gold t-shirts to come to Haas.

---

The decision rests with the donors, not the AD. We (the Cal Atheltic supporters) have to come up with around $10 million for the buyout and new coaching staffs' pay package. I am not in those conversations. I don't expect that the AD would tell a reporter about those conversations.

---

That $10 million figure is straight out of fantasyl and though. It will take $3M to buy out Jones and no need to project what a new staff would cost as of yet.

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When I had to terminate a senior employee I looked at the whole cost :
- termination fees and severance
- whether i would have to pay the replacement more and how long we'd be paying double
- recruiting and relocation and legal, etc

I also knew the transition plan

Knowlton should have a short list, have spoken with agent(s), and know what it would take to land the replacement before buying out Wyking's contract.

Bear19 said:

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"He (Knowlton) said he's hearing positive and negative feedback from fans as the program overhauls its roster..."

Who are the idiot fans giving Knowlton posiitive feedback?

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I believe he's talking about fans of other teams in the PAC 12. They must be thrilled with what we are up to.

It's like Yelp. Restaurant owner gets friends to post positive reviews to off set negative ones by actual patrons. Maybe some are kids that are paid. I can't imagine any season ticket holder supporting this.

We are overhauling our roster with all three star players. Not good enough to compete. Also no ligit centers coming in. I don't see this team any better next year with same coaching. It is especially important to have really good coaching when you have an undersized team. The scheme and the overall defense are crucial.

oskidunker said:

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My son is adamant about not renewing as is my friend who buys one ticket. I thought about just renewing two to keep location but I am being overwhelmed by everything. Can't do it if they keep jones. Will reapply when new coach hired and sit where I can. Very sad for me. Season tickets since 1986. I guess all good things come to an end.

I wonder if they are going to start renewals before the season is over. Big mistake if they do. They should offer a refund if the team doesn't break 500. Free hot dogs would help but Cal always looks at the short term...

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In the bad years, I consider my ticket cost a donation to the University. I have slimmed down over the years from 4 to 2 to 3 and now back down to 2, they let you keep the location even though you gave up 2 seats. If the seat next to you (that you gave up) doesn't sell (mine hasn't the last two years - what a surprise!) they will let you buy it back. And it isn't when they start renewals you need to worry about it is when they end. I am optimistic change will come. Hang in there with us.

There's no way WJ doesn't get fired. It's the most guaranteed stone cold lock in sports this year.

touchdownbears43 said:

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There's no way WJ doesn't get fired. It's the most guaranteed stone cold lock in sports this year.

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Seriously. No need to get tied up worrying about something that is an absolute certainty "not" occurring. At this point Wyking Jones mom would fire him.

RJABear said:

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Yogi Bear said:

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RJABear said:

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KoreAmBear said:

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Three years would be negligent management as an AD. This can't continue after this season. You would have to pay people and give out more gold t-shirts to come to Haas.

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The decision rests with the donors, not the AD. We (the Cal Atheltic supporters) have to come up with around $10 million for the buyout and new coaching staffs' pay package. I am not in those conversations. I don't expect that the AD would tell a reporter about those conversations.

---

That $10 million figure is straight out of fantasyl and though. It will take $3M to buy out Jones and no need to project what a new staff would cost as of yet.

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When I had to terminate a senior employee I looked at the whole cost :
- termination fees and severance
- whether i would have to pay the replacement more and how long we'd be paying double
- recruiting and relocation and legal, etc

I also knew the transition plan

Knowlton should have a short list, have spoken with agent(s), and know what it would take to land the replacement before buying out Wyking's contract.

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I really appreciated the package you put together for me. I heard though things haven't changed much. The fact you could do math is impressive though and must have endeared you to Sr. Management.

After the non moves in FB, I don't have faith meaningful action will be taken.