OaktownBear said:
SFCityBear said:
KoreAmBear said:
3146gabby said:
It may be a terrible hire, but the more extreme reactions represent the kind of non critical thinking plaguing our times; evident in the outrage are the assumptions:
1. JK has no more info than the rest of us; in short no experience, expertise, etc.
2. Whether consciously or unconsciously his motives are questionable.
3. Therefore he does not know what he is doing.
4. That JK as AD @ Cal does not have a complex, nuanced and layered set of parameters.
Reading the analysis by BI, at the very least, the reaction of others in college BB gives me some hope, hope that is rooted in a recognition that Mark Few or his kind are not coming here.
You who are fed up, give JK some credit for having half a brain, some experience, some devotion to Berkeley and weighed a # of complex issues in making this hire.
Finally don't forget every other option had baggage - there was no absolute among JKidd, et al.
Valid points, but I'd say the people accepting this have shown little critical thinking, just trust and loyalty. For instance, why be in such a rush to hire someone who would be on the board a month from now? It's like taking a shot you can have any time in the shot clock but you take it 5 seconds in. Why hire a fired coach who's taken a year off of D1 coaching over a guy who knows Cal and just won his conference again (and who likely would be cheaper)? I don't know how you can say these aren't valid questions that have basis. I don't think it's unreasonable to think this was not a great decision even without all the info because the questions are so obviously glaring.
In the modern climate, where a lot of discourse is political and sharply divided, the same rhetoric finds its way into other spheres of activity. In that political discourse, I've heard both sides accuse the other of not using critical thinking, and now I'm hearing it in connection with this discussion of firing one coach and hiring another. In both cases, both sides claim, and maybe rightly so, to know some facts. But neither side is privy to all the facts. Knowlton may have had this search for a coach in mind from the minute he heard of the job opening for an AD, knowing full well he needed to prepare himself, should the situation arise. Or he may have acted quickly, without a long and careful process. We know nothing about the process he went through, and likely we will never learn the full story: what names were under consideration, and who did he consult with, if anyone? How much of the decision was his to make?
It is easy to paint one coach in a bad light (getting fired and being out of work for a year), and paint another in a good light, such as a guy who knows Cal, and just won his conference. For example, Fox had an outstanding first head coaching effort at Nevada, 4 conference championships in 5 years, 3 top 25 teams (one ranked #10, and 3 NCAA invites. Here are some guys who knew Cal as assistant coaches and failed as Cal head coach: Herrerias, Padgett, Bozeman, and Jones. Here are some guys who won the Big Sky Conference: Wayne Tinkle. Twice. He went on to have a losing record at Oregon State. MIke Montgomery won the Big Sky once. At Stanford, it took him 3 years to get an NCAA invite. He had 2 invites in 8 years. He did not win an NCAA tourney game until his 9th year, and it took him 12 years to win a PAC10 Championship and reach a Final Four.
I am not pushing for Fox, nor am I not in favor of DeCuire, and I'm not saying you are wrong to hold the opposite view. We can all have our suspicions, or theories about what took place in what seemed like a quick hire. But how can we do any critical thinking about this hire without knowing what Jim Knowlton knew when he made the decision? LIke with most new coaches, the proof will be in the pudding, and we can be far better informed when we watch his teams than we were in his hiring process. We need patience for this, and the last several years have shown we don't have a lot of it.
Your argument essentially means we can never question an AD's decision because he might know something we don't.
As I said in my previous post, name one time in the last 60 years where It turned out that the AD decision that appeared stupid wasn't stupid. Jones, Dykes, Holmoe, Gilbertson, Kapp. That is five decisions that seemed stupid that turned out in fact stupid. We didn't know what the AD knew then either. Turned out, not much.
60 years of lather, rinse, repeat is too much patience.
I've made my feelings known here, I thought hiring Travis wouldn't be a home run hire, but would be a double in the gap, and hiring Fox was a sacrifice fly while behind 7 runs in the 8th inning. Fox's record of mediocrity in P6 is not inspiring.
That said, the wisdom of a decision is not necessarily judged by the outcome. What did you know at the time is relevant. If you and I bet even money, I bet a fair coin will come up head three times in a row, you bet it won't, my decision wasn't stupid just because lost, your decision wasn't smart just because you won.
So we always need to careful. Did the decision turn out to be stupid, or did it just not turn out well even if it was the right call based on what was known at the time?
The odds of things working out with the 5 you mention weren't all the same. Kapp and Jones were the biggest gambles. Be careful about any coach who has done acting BEFORE he has ever been a head coach, apparently they might sucker an AD into hiring them. Hiring a guy from behind a desk in Hollywood who hasn't been a coach to be HC of a Pac-10 team? Um, no. Hiring a guy who has never been a top assistant anywhere much less a head coach anywhere to be MBB HC at a P6 school? Um, no. Holmoe was probably next most ridiculous of the ones you name, and Dykes next most ridiculous. But in the case of Kapp and Jones, the AD didn't need to know any more than what we knew to understand that it was a crazy gamble that it would work. Crazy. If it worked, it wouldn't have made the original decision any less stupid. Dykes, and maybe even Holmoe, if they had worked, maybe the AD knew something we didn't.
But I'd argue that hiring Gilby was no less stupid at the time he was hired than Snyder when he was hired. Snyder's only HC experience was 6 years at Utah St. in the old PCAA, going 38-37-2. Pretty darned mediocre in a less than stellar conference. Then off to 4 years as a position coach in the NFL. And it wasn't like Snyder was showing great improvement at Utah St. After his first year, the last year of Utah St. being an independent, he got a couple of first place PCAA finishes. Then two 2nd place finishes. And in his final year, down to a 4th place finish. Yep, the kind of guy I expect to take a Pac-10 team without a great tradition of success to the heights of success. Being the Rams RB coach for 4 years might help with some X's and O's, but making him a better college HC, making him be ready for the Pac-10? Hardly. Yet if Bockrath had honored Maggard's handshake deal with Snyder, Snyder probably takes us to the Rose Bowl.
Gilby had 3 good years at Idaho, although they were DI-AA at the time, but still, 28-9 overall, tied for second in conference in his first year followed by two 1st place finishes, and the DI-AA semis in his final year. His trajectory was upward as a lower level HC, unlike Snyder. And Gilby's 3 years after his HC experience were in the Pac-10, not the NFL, with his last year being OC of the co-national champions. On paper, this looks better to me at the time of hiring than Snyder did at the time of hiring, even if he was the worst coach in Cal football history (others may argue, but Gilby was worse than Holmoe or Dykes). The main argument for Mooch over Gilby was continuity, and we all know what a great argument continuity is (see Tom Holmoe, Wyking Jones).
Did Snyder turn out better than we expected because Maggard knew something we didn't? Maybe, maybe not (although I'm confident that Bockrath's decision not to honor Maggard's handshake deal with Snyder was ego and stupidity, and not knowing something we didn't). Did Gilby turn out horrible because we all saw something the AD didn't? I doubt it.
And how about Travis versus Martin? Did Sandy know something we didn't know? Pretty much all of us liked the Martin hire better than we would have liked the Travis hire the day it happened, and the amateur AD Dirks overruled the professional AD Sandy. Maybe the professional should have been trusted.
This isn't a Jones or a Kapp or even a Holmoe hire. I probably like it less than I did Dykes at the time due to record of mediocrity. I definitely like it less than I did the Gilby hire at the time. But I probably like it better than I did the Snyder hire at the time. So I am not willing to declare it a disaster until it turns out to be a disaster, even if I am, uh, less than optimistic about it. There is at least a chance the professional knows more than me, even if I am not optimistic that is the case.
I am, however, confident that we'll be better off than we were with Jones. Set the bar as low as you can, it isn't hard to clear.