I agree that it is unfair to say Knowlton doesn't know what he is doing just because he was a hockey player and doesn't know basketball. It isn't like Cal has had either a basketball or a football player for an AD in a really long time, nonetheless, some hires were more questionable than others.UrsaMajor said:With this definition of "lucked out," I think we are in agreement. BTW, for the record I was disappointed in the Fox hire initially as well. I even told Knowlton that. I do think, however, that saying that Knowlton doesn't know what he's doing because he was a hockey player (I don't remember who said that) is totally silly. Any more than Steve Gladstone shouldn't have been involved in hiring Tedford because his sport was crew. In the end, I don't care if Knowlton "lucked out" or was incredibly brilliant. I just want a winning basketball team.Cal8285 said:You submit that it is equally likely based on what?UrsaMajor said:With one exception, I can agree with this assessment. Hindsight is always better than awareness at the time, and I don't think criticism of the hire AT THE TIME was misplaced. My one "exception" is your use of the phrase "lucked out." I would submit that it is equally likely that Knowlton knew what he was doing rather than he "lucked out."Cal8285 said:You are correct.Civil Bear said:I don't think that comment is particularly fair. Most that wanted Travis over Fox admit they do not know the ceiling with Travis, only that Fox has shown his ceiling - which isn't perennial Sweet 16's. If Fox ends up turning Cal into a perennial Sweet 16 program, those of that wanted Travis do not know he would have done even better. Your comment indicates you think plenty of the Travis supporters are disingenuous, which like the thread title only serves to alienate Cal fans.UrsaMajor said:
I venture to say that if Cal becomes a perennial Sweet-16 team with a couple of NC's, there will be plenty on this Board who will "know" that Knowlton failed in his hiring and that Travis would have been a better hire.
There are two ways to look at the hiring of Jones' replacement, 1) Based on what was known at the time, and 2) based on hindsight. If Fox takes Cal to multiple Final Fours, yes, I'll still think that, based on what was known at the time, Fox was the wrong hire. However, since we will have hindsight, I'll be glad we lucked out and got Fox, I will think that there is almost no chance that Travis or anyone else would have done as well or better, and the strong likelihood is that anyone else would have done worse.
My assessment of the Fox hire was based on two things, 1) Fox's track record at the time of his hire, and 2) the comments Knowlton made about why he hired Fox. Those things won't change, so I'll always feel like Knowlton, at the time, made the wrong choice. Whether later I will think it worked out well anyway is another matter, and as always with every Cal hire I don't like, I hope I will.
Yes, I hope that in hindsight, I end up loving the choice and thrilled we got Fox. One game against a team picked to finish 4th in a conference that generally doesn't have more than 2, maybe 3, good teams, does not yet give me the appropriate hindsight to get thrilled. Fox needs time to recruit and build a program, and that will take more than a season, and I hope he does it well.
As I said, my assessment of the Fox hire is based on 1) Fox's track record at the time of the hire, and 2) the comments Knowlton made about the hire.
Based on those two things, if Fox works out really well, then Knowlton lucked out. Maybe Knowlton knew what he was doing, but his comments he made about the hire indicated that he didn't really know what he was doing.
If Knowlton had good reason to think Fox's track record was misleading, why didn't he say anything about it? It isn't like there were secrets he needed to keep about it. Did Fox have a good plan to improve his offensive track record? Did Fox have a good plan to improve his recruiting track record? Knowlton said nothing. Instead, Knowlton told us that Fox had a good track record, and that Fox and Knowlton hit it off really well. To the first, I say BS, and to the second, I say it is irrelevant. Why would Knowlton hide it if he had information that would show he knew what he was doing? What evidence is there that Knowlton was hiding things from us and he actually knew what he was doing?
At this point, I look at the evidence, and the evidence FROM KNOWLTON suggests Knowlton didn't know what he was doing, so yeah, I think that if Fox works out, "lucked out" is more likely than "misled us about the reasons for hiring and actually knew what he was doing." And the jury is a LONG way from returning a verdict on whether it works out, although I am certainly rooting for it to work out.
And look, no matter what, there is an element of luck if a coach works out, whether we hired a Travis or hired a Fox or a Kidd or somebody else. If Travis had been hired over Fox, it would have meant a higher ceiling and a higher floor. We'd need some luck to end up on the better side of mediocre. Cal wasn't in a position to hire a guy that would be close to a guarantee of being a smashing success, so luck was going to be involved no matter what.
The concern with Fox is the established track record didn't leave as much room for good luck or bad luck, we would likely come nowhere near to the horror of the Jones era, and nowhere near to being a perennial Sweet 16 contender. If it turns out we do the former, that's really bad luck, if it turns out we do the latter, that's really good luck.
If we have great success, I really don't care if it is mostly luck, Cal has had enough bad luck over the years, we deserve some good luck. Again, too early to tell, for now, I'll enjoy one game of positives, hope we have a lot more this year, and hope that over the years, Fox builds a really good program that make me appreciate how lucky we got.
Gladstone's comments during and after the Tedford hiring process (plus the make up of his search committee) made me feel like he knew what he was doing. Knowlton's comments during and after the Fox hiring made me feel like he didn't know what he was doing.
We agree, however, it is now done, and we just want a winning basketball team. But if someone like the OP wants to bash "90%" of the fan base as losers for being pissed after the Fox hire, I'll push back against that.